White Sox Acquire RP Tony Pena from ARI for Brandon Allen

[Jordan4life_2007]

On paper, Pena actually looks better than most people give him credit for. Doing a quick search of ESPN stats, in the past two seasons [his 2nd and 3rd full years], Pena is 3rd in MLB holds. Only Scot Shields [62] and Heath Bell [57] have had more holds than Pena [53]. That is more than Okajima [50] and Scott Downs [48]. Not coughing up leads and keeping inherited runners from scoring are key tasks for relievers. I'm not sure what his numbers are for not allowing IR from scoring, but he's done well in protecting leads.

 

Even this year, with the D-backs horrible, he's got 8 holds. Dotel has 10 and Thornton has 12.

 

Holds is really a flawed stat. The best statistics to use when evaluating reliever performance (especially non-closers) is WHIP and LOB%. With that said, I like Pena a lot. He's got a dynamite arm. Mid 90's fastball and a pretty good slider. He hasn't really reached his full potential yet. But the Sox obviously believe they can max out his potential. And when you look at their track record in these types of cases (Jose Contreras, Matt Thornton, Gavin Floyd), I've got no problem giving them the benefit of the doubt.

Edited July 8, 2009 by Jordan4life

[beautox]

I'm sad to see Allen go, but to get a rhp of the caliber of pena I'm excited, the bullpen is one of the biggest sink holes of money in ML baseball, just look at what we had to give dotel and linebrink to get it in order after the whole aardsma and sisco fiasco. I trust this is the best KW could get and basically getting dotel 2.0 for 3.5 years isn't a bad move at all and this makes sure we don't cough up the lead late in the game.

 

KW rarely gets burned on trading from his own back yard, and i think the sox have some very solid advanced scouts so I'm sure we will see the fruition of this trade shortly.

 

we've realistically got some time to find a solution at first base after konerko, thome, dye and aj ride off into the sun, and we've got some excellent opitions down at AA if both Flowers and Viciedo can't stick at their respective positions and the potential of Black in the way off distance. Also we have one more future draft ahead of us to get a first round first basemen whom as far as drafting go are the fastest to make the bigs and get the biggest ROIC.

[Jordan4life_2007]

After any trade we make, I like to get the opposing team's fans' views of the deal. Here's what some Arizona fans had to say.

 

dbl11s wrote:

Baseball America isn't the end all, this guy has abysmal stats for a player competing against younger players. Didn't hit AAA til his 6th season,that speaks volumes.Anybody interested go to baseball-reference.com and look up Allen's Minor League Stats.You'll see what I saw,Kenny Williams stole a quality set-up guy for a player that the CHISOX had no intention of keeping.They would've let him walk as a 6yr Minor League Free Agent,I guarantee that the Sox wouldn't waste a spot on their POST SEASON 40 MAN for this guy.

7/8/2009 1:10:26 AM

 

dback_ace wrote:

Good job Josh Byrnes, another good trade on your resume. The Dbacks get just what they needed: another lefty first baseman to go along with Chad Tracy and Whitesell. Maybe we should extend your contract Byrnes another couple of years because we wouldn't want you getting away and destroying another team. Seriously though, I felt that other members of the bullpen needed to be traded before Pena and I think we should have got more in return.

7/8/2009 1:06:59 AM

 

jmanGoDBACKS wrote:

Personally i think that was an awful trade... Our bullpen is extremely weak so we ge rid of a descent pitcher for a minor league no name??? I was hoping we'd get rid of Tony Clark or Eric Byrnes. The problem is that this kid from the minors may turn out to be good but we already have Chad Tracy who is only 29 years old and Conor Jackson who is only 27 years old it's not like we need depth at first base. We have to start getting a better bullpen and this wasn't a good start. Nice job Josh...

7/8/2009 12:18:30 AM

 

ilovefood6 wrote:

There needs to be a "Fire Josh Byrnes" petition. This is getting ridiculous

7/8/2009 12:05:24 AM

 

DBacks15 wrote:

Ya anybody would agree that pena has chance to be elite closer, and is not eligable for free agency until 2010, so they Dbacks should went after a 2nd baseman prospect or a coupla prospects. Then again Josh Brynes is the GM.

7/7/2009 10:39:02 PM

 

dbl11s wrote:

Really a 23yr old 2nd tier prospect who started the year in AA is all THE ADVOCACY could get for experienced set-up man with mid 90's stuff,really? I'm OK with starting to move parts but get fair value in return,Pena may have struggled at times this season but he was the only and I mean only pen arm that has the full complement of + pitches. Not against trading the guy but get something in return.

7/7/2009 9:51:02 PM

 

gordorifa wrote:

I think that is very stupid. tony was doing real good he was the better one in the bullpen and they trade him for a aaa guy come on at least get another good one. I think that the gm is out of his mind Im really upset Its real painfull watchin our team going down

7/7/2009 9:22:29 PM

 

TAKER wrote:

i know its pretty much over, but why do you trade our best bullpen guy. come on. h wasnt making alot of money and you never know what can happen. and for this guy allen. just dont understand our g.m and it pisses me off what type of gm he his sometimes.if you gonna trade him you def could have got better for him, he is gonna be a good closer somewhere. so stupid

7/7/2009 8:56:30 PM

 

So who's the bigger idiot? Kenny Williams or Josh Byrnes?

[Lemon_44]

If i'm KW, i keep trading with the D'backs until i lose on a deal. I like the trade. You're getting a guy who has already had some success at the big league level for an average to above average prospect. The jump from AAA to the bigs is enormous and ,i think, sometimes gets overlooked. Allen may never have one bit of success at the major league level,he was,by no means, a can't miss prospect, while Pena has already shown he can get ML'ers out and has great stuff.

 

I was listening to Indians radio announcers last night and they were talking about how you can't really just go by stats at minor league level when projecting to the ML level because of how big a jump it is. They were talking about how Fausto Carmona's game, on paper, looked great in his first AAA start bceause he only walked 1 guy and put up nice numbers. In reality, they said if it was a big league game, he would have had about 5-6 walks because ML'ers wouldn't have been swinging at the pitches that the AAA's were. So, i'm going to go with Kenny and the Sox scouting staff on thsi trade and say it will be a win for the Sox.

[yoyozuna]

I didn't learn about this trade until late last night. And the first thing that popped into my head was that I'm 100% certain that all of Soxtalk is going absolutely apes*** right about now. And after reading through this thread, you guys certainly didn't disappoint.

 

First of all, who the hell is anybody from this god damn message board to say with absolute certainty (or even 50% certainty) that the Sox "could've gotten more" for Brandon f***in' Allen? Unless you can find a direct quote from any one of the 28 other general managers in baseball clearly stating they would've traded the Sox a lot more than Tony Pena for Brandon Allen then please, with all due respect, STFU! Because all you do is make yourself look and sound incredibly stupid. I like this board overall. But the ignorance/arrogance around here at times is simply incomprehensible. Unless your JPN or Scenario or BHAMBARONS and you happen to live close by one of our minor league affiliates or you're a subscriber to MILB.com, most of you have never seen a single f***ing live Brandon Allen at-bat. And that includes me. s***, I love to track prospects. But I have no first-hand knowledge about any of these guys. All I can do is go by stats, scouting reports, ect. Yet we've got message board "experts" around here on their f***ing high horses acting like they know more than guys that get PAID FOR A LIVING to scout and break these guys down? Get the f*** outta here. Brandon Allen for the most part appears to be a solid prospect. He could be really good, bad or somewhere inbetween. Who knows? And we won't know for a while. So let's stop acting like we traded away the next Ryan Howard.

Thank You, Thank You, Thank You!!!! Legend you hit it on the head. I have found myself coming to ST less and less for the exact reasons you mentioned. I am giving KW the benefit of the doubt on this one. The question I pose is as of today are we a better team with Tony Pena than with Jimmy Gobble? I think we know the answer to that. So lets all take a chill pill and let this play out.

[bighurt574]

I didn't learn about this trade until late last night. And the first thing that popped into my head was that I'm 100% certain that all of Soxtalk is going absolutely apes*** right about now. And after reading through this thread, you guys certainly didn't disappoint.

 

First of all, who the hell is anybody from this god damn message board to say with absolute certainty (or even 50% certainty) that the Sox "could've gotten more" for Brandon f***in' Allen? Unless you can find a direct quote from any one of the 28 other general managers in baseball clearly stating they would've traded the Sox a lot more than Tony Pena for Brandon Allen then please, with all due respect, STFU! Because all you do is make yourself look and sound incredibly stupid. I like this board overall. But the ignorance/arrogance around here at times is simply incomprehensible. Unless your JPN or Scenario or BHAMBARONS and you happen to live close by one of our minor league affiliates or you're a subscriber to MILB.com, most of you have never seen a single f***ing live Brandon Allen at-bat. And that includes me. s***, I love to track prospects. But I have no first-hand knowledge about any of these guys. All I can do is go by stats, scouting reports, ect. Yet we've got message board "experts" around here on their f***ing high horses acting like they know more than guys that get PAID FOR A LIVING to scout and break these guys down? Get the f*** outta here. Brandon Allen for the most part appears to be a solid prospect. He could be really good, bad or somewhere inbetween. Who knows? And we won't know for a while. So let's stop acting like we traded away the next Ryan Howard.

 

I'll second (or third) that. This board is way too attached to mediocre prospects (which is most of them, sorry). Kenny traded a B-level prospect for a decent and cheap reliever with some upside. Pena will be in our bullpen long after Dotel and probably Linebrink are gone. This trade helps marginally for 2009, and potentially a lot for 2010 and after.

 

[YASNY]

I certainly don't have any problem with this trade.

[bkmoney]

holy cow youd think the KW started eating babies from some of the posts in this thread.

 

i think this is a fantastic trade. A PROVEN major leaguer for someone who may never break into the majors? For a cheap contract ??

 

Arizona fans have it right. What is their GM thinking ?

[beck72]

Holds is really a flawed stat. The best statistics to use when evaluating reliever performance (especially non-closers) is WHIP and LOB%. With that said, I like Pena a lot. He's got a dynamite arm. Mid 90's fastball and a pretty good slider. He hasn't really reached his full potential yet. But the Sox obviously believe they can max out his potential. And when you look at their track record in these types of cases (Jose Contreras, Matt Thornton, Gavin Floyd), I've got no problem giving them the benefit of the doubt.

I know holds alone isn't a good indicator of performance. But taken with K/9, BB/9, BAA-[which, IIRC, he has a career .224], along with WHIP, age, cost, possible ceiling, pitching arsenal, etc, Pena would seem a decent fit for the sox.

 

I have confidence KW and Co. did their homework on Pena [like in other similar deals for pitching] and look forward to him, hopefully, replacing Dotel.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Simple....

 

Allen is 24 already, so it's not like he is a "spring chicken," he's more of a late bloomer. We were dealing from a position of strength in our organization (Konerko, Fields, Viciedo, Flowers, Phegley, etc.) and Allen was no longer projected to be an impact bat based on this season's results, apparently.

 

With Poreda, Carrasco, Thornton, Linebrink, Dotel, Jenks and Pena, we arguably now have the best bullpen in baseball, at least from a "potential" standpoint, in terms of a collection of arms.

 

It's the same principle KW operated under when he had the excess starting pitcher in the organization in 2005 and 2006...to deal from a position of strength instead of one of weakness and desperation.

 

Let's wait to see if Pena can outperform Dotel at significantly less money and Dotel (or dreaming, Linebrink) can be leverage for yet another piece...

 

Not too often I completely agree with you but I do here.

 

Allen was a nice prospect who has a chance to have a nice career, but he won't ever be more than an average 1B. That's not a knock at all, as that is a good ceiling, but he was far from untradeable. Between Viciedo/Phegley/Fields/Flowers or a FA, 1B is easy to fill. Pena gives us another good arm for the pen this year and provides insurance in case Linebrink goes down or Dotel gets traded. He's also under our control for a few more years after.

 

I initially did not like the trade, but in order to get quality you need to give up quality in return. And for those who feel we didn't maximize his value, how do you know what his value was considered by teams across the league? At 24 and just starting AAA he was not old by any means, but he wasn't so young that screamed "centerpiece of a blockbuster". And as for packaging him, if you felt his best value was in a package deal doesn't that say something about his value? It's also funny how bothered some people seem to be here. I get it if you feel it was a bad trade, but you don't need to post it 15 times.

 

Relievers aren't cheap either. They are always very valuable commodities in July. I like the move. Sad to see Allen go but I'm fine with the return we got for him, especially if Pena can return to how he pitched a couple years ago. Also, this also gives KW the ability to trade Dotel if a trade to his liking comes along, which I would not be opposed to.

Edited July 8, 2009 by ChiSox_Sonix

[DBAHO]

A good stat to look at for Pena is FIP.

 

Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.

 

2007 - 4.28

2008 - 3.28

2009 - 3.79

 

This season, Linebrink has a FIP of 3.95, Dotel's is 4.09 and Thornton's is 2.95.

[caulfield12]

Not too often I completely agree with you but I do here.

 

Allen was a nice prospect who has a chance to have a nice career, but he won't ever be more than an average 1B. That's not a knock at all, as that is a good ceiling, but he was far from untradeable. Between Viciedo/Phegley/Fields/Flowers or a FA, 1B is easy to fill. Pena gives us another good arm for the pen this year and provides insurance in case Linebrink goes down or Dotel gets traded. He's also under our control for a few more years after.

 

I initially did not like the trade, but in order to get quality you need to give up quality in return. And for those who feel we didn't maximize his value, how do you know what his value was considered by teams across the league? At 24 and just starting AAA he was not old by any means, but he wasn't so young that screamed "centerpiece of a blockbuster". And as for packaging him, if you felt his best value was in a package deal doesn't that say something about his value? It's also funny how bothered some people seem to be here. I get it if you feel it was a bad trade, but you don't need to post it 15 times.

 

Relievers aren't cheap either. They are always very valuable commodities in July. I like the move. Sad to see Allen go but I'm fine with the return we got for him, especially if Pena can return to how he pitched a couple years ago. Also, this also gives KW the ability to trade Dotel if a trade to his liking comes along, which I would not be opposed to.

 

 

It's really Moneyball 101, although you do need to find someone more like Swisher (at his best, or Youkilis) and not like Ross Gload, Dan Johnson or Scott Hatteberg.

 

But the fact is that 1B/DH/LF types are much cheaper to acquire than any other position on the field....except for maybe 2B, although you still pay a ton for the upper tier at that position, too, just that there aren't as many of them to choose from.

 

I don't like losing our best young left-handed bat, but apparently KW is confident he can find another one out there along the lines of Dunn/Abreu/Thome...or via the offseason trade market.

 

It also seems more and more likely we'll hold onto Paul Konerko for the duration of his contract.

 

 

[CanOfCorn]

A good stat to look at for Pena is FIP.

 

 

 

2007 - 4.28

2008 - 3.28

2009 - 3.79

 

This season, Linebrink has a FIP of 3.95, Dotel's is 4.09 and Thornton's is 2.95.

Really? FIP?

 

NERD ALERT!!!

[whitesoxfan101]

Where is your seat in the Sox war room? I mean, like arms length away from Kenny??

 

 

Making statements like these are totally asinine. You have NO idea what the value of Brandon Allen really is, or what package could have made to acquire Pena.

 

I obviously can't with 110 percent certainty speak to the specific value of Brandon Allen (although I think it's pretty obvious to anyone who pays attention even to a slight degree that it's more than a middle reliever), however I can say that if he was the bare minimum required to bring Tony Pena in, then there is no way in hell we should have been making a trade for Tony Pena.

 

I understand there are certain people here who simply will not be critical of Kenny Williams all that often though, which is fine, that's their perrogative and since he's got a ring, I can understand it to a degree. I will say it's fascinating that the Diamondbacks fans are ripping this trade though, not sure what exactly they think a middle reliever who has been mediocre in 2009 is going to bring back.

Edited July 8, 2009 by whitesoxfan101

[Pumpkin Escobar]

I havent gone through all 22 pages on this but I don't mind the move. Allen was a good prospect. Not great but had very good upside with his bat.

 

Maybe I am off base but I don't think the Sox saw him in their 3-5 year plans. Even with Konerko aging, I still feel he or Dye would be occupying first base the next few years. Obviously their contracts expire but I just don't see them going anywhere.

 

In Pena, they got a guy with pretty good stuff. Anytime we acquire a starting pitcher with the resemblence of good stuff - all you hear about is how this guy is a Cooper project and can flourish with him. Why is this considered any different?

 

He is cheap, has very good stuff, and young. His stuff can keep him in a 7th or 8th inning role with no problems. For right now he adds depth to the pen which we need.

 

Some of you see this as a move to another move. It could very well be but more then likely it's the fact that we need depth in this pen because we have a 5 starter who cant get through the 5th inning and we cant afford to go out and get a replacement.

 

This is a good move for the Sox.

[Steve9347]

The acquisition of Pena is going to be much like the acquisition of Matt Thornton. In KW I trust.

[SoxFan1]

After any trade we make, I like to get the opposing team's fans' views of the deal. Here's what some Arizona fans had to say.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So who's the bigger idiot? Kenny Williams or Josh Byrnes?

Not gonna lie, this is a horrilble post that proves nothing. Sorry.

 

I'm not saying Brandon Allen is going to be the left-handed Pujols or anything, but he's FAR from a no-name. This stipulation that Brandon Allen, at 23, was way too old for AA or AAA is ludicrous. If he completed the rest of the season at AAA this year and made the team out of Spring Training, he'd still only be 24. And even if he had to do another COMPLETE season at AAA, he'd make our team in 2011 at the age of 25. Man, what a geezer. GMAB.

[Harry Chappas]

Maybe Carraso is going to get a shot at the number 5 spot with Richard replacing Gobble?

[Princess Dye]

Not gonna lie, this is a horrilble post that proves nothing. Sorry.

 

I'm not saying Brandon Allen is going to be the left-handed Pujols or anything, but he's FAR from a no-name. This stipulation that Brandon Allen, at 23, was way too old for AA or AAA is ludicrous. If he completed the rest of the season at AAA this year and made the team out of Spring Training, he'd still only be 24. And even if he had to do another COMPLETE season at AAA, he'd make our team in 2011 at the age of 25. Man, what a geezer. GMAB.

 

The point isnt intended to just call him a geezer outright. It's to say, we're at a crossroads with him. if something doesnt click at AAA, then he gets one year older and his trade value plummets (keep in mind as LF/1B).

 

This is either the last chance to get something for sure out of this guy, or you wait out some of those flaws til he's 25, and you get a stud or absolutely nothing out of it.

 

 

You're assuming he'd make our team at 25. But with these young guys we have to think in terms of trade value, and he gives a totally different outlook for other teams at 23 vs. 25.

[Cubano]

I smell the following:

 

Viciedo going to 1B or the White Sox signing Santiago de Cuba Wasps 1B Jose Julio Ruiz. The Sox won't compete for LHP Aroldis Chapman, but KW may fly under the radar after the blooshed for Chapman and grab this talented youngster to play 1B for the South Side of Chicago.

 

[Reddy]

I smell the following:

 

Viciedo going to 1B or the White Sox signing Santiago de Cuba Wasps 1B Jose Julio Ruiz. The Sox won't compete for LHP Aroldis Chapman, but KW may fly under the radar after the blooshed for Chapman and grab this talented youngster to play 1B for the South Side of Chicago.

 

 

I could see Viciedo going to first, but I'm not so sure about those other predictions...

Edited July 8, 2009 by Reddy

[HuskyCaucasian]

I almost wonder if that was why Hawk has hyped some of these guys up so much, is help in the selling of these guys to other teams for Kenny. Teams like the Yankee seem to do this with every prospect they end up dealing, maybe it would work for us too?

If opposing scouts and GM listen to team announcers for a scouting reports, they should be fired.

[Princess Dye]

Im sure it's somewhere in the 22 pages, but if we offered Dotel arbitration, what figure would that potentially be

[NorthSideSox72]

Anyone know how the Sox are feeling about Viciedo's progress defensively? Because if it looks like he isn't picking it up, we might see Dayan taking Allen's place in Charlotte at 1B.

 

[tonyho7476]

Is he really only 5'11? Wow...

 

The Sox site says Konerko is 6' 2"...but I met him, and I'm that tall, and I was taller than him. I say Paul is only 6 feet.