Halladay Superthread

[BearSox]

Blue Jays can keep Halladay for most of these trade ideas.

 

To put things into perspective, by the end of this season (barring injury) Halladay will have pitched around 911 innings in the last 4 years (ages 29-32).

 

At age 25 and 26 he pitched 239 and 261 ip, and subsequently only pitched 133 and 141 innings in the next 2 seasons.

 

So are we to believe that his body is more durable at age 32?

 

My answer is no, and would say that the amount of mileage being put on Halladay's arm is an accident waiting to happen.

Try looking at something other than IP. Look at the number of pitches he throws:

 

2009 - 102 pitches/game (16 starts) - Most in one game (133) - Number of times over 120 (1)

2008 - 108 pitches/game (33 starts) - Most in one game (130) - Number of times over 120 (2)

2007 - 107 pitches/game (31 starts) - Most in one game (126) - Number of times over 120 (5)

2006 - 095 pitches/game (32 starts) - Most in one game (118) - Number of times over 120 (0)

2005 - missed time with a fracture in on his lower left leg

2004 - missed time with shoulder soreness/fatigue

2003 - 100 pitches/game (36 starts) - Most in one game (122) - Number of times over 120 (2)

2002 - 103 pitches/game (34 starts) - Most in one game (126) - Number of times over 120 (1)

 

I'll give you 04 because 36 games started is higher than average for an ace, but for reference sake, Buehrle had 35 GS last year. But he did have some arm fatigue in 05, so I'll chalk that one up to his arm not as strong as it should have been/being tired from the previous season.

 

But 05 had nothing to do with his arm, he had a fracture in his league. And if you look at his average pitches per game, he really isn't overworked. Because you are an efficient pitcher and throw a lot of innings doesn't mean your overworked.

[Frankensteiner]

There is no way I'd give up anything close to that package for Halladay. We're better off with the kids and the money to go spend on FA's.

 

What FAs do you want to buy? Because the upcoming free agent market looks terrible.

 

Give me Halladay any day of the week.

[Balta1701]

What FAs do you want to buy? Because the upcoming free agent market looks terrible.

 

Give me Halladay any day of the week.

Not necessarily anyone in particular. I just wouldn't pay that price for Halladay. Hell, if you want him, he'll be a FA in 1.5 years. That's the point.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

The first two players Riccardi would ask for would be Beckham and Danks, almost positive on that. Also positive in saying that Kenny wouldn't trade John or Gordon. Honestly, since those names wouldn't work, I'm sure Tyler Flowers and Poreda would have to be involved. I think the only way something between us and Toronto would happen is if our package at least involved 3 really good prospects and at least another solid one. Maybe a package like: Flowers, Poreda, Allen/Dayan and Richard. I still don't know if the Blue Jays would do that but I really think they'd want at least something along those lines.

I'd trade Poreda, Richard and Flowers for Halliday easy. If they want more, I'd throw in Getz or Fields if they're interested. If they insist on adding Allen, I'd do it but would want something else coming back.

[almagest]

Halladay's average fastball last season and this season has been 92.7. He hits 95 multiple times a game.

 

The real point is throughout the whole thread halladay has been vastly underrated... and unfinished products in a middle of the pack farm system have been equally overrated. I love it.

What do you think is a fair deal on our part, and what do you think the Blue Jays would ask for?

[Jordan4life_2007]

But with three straight losses to the Yankees over the weekend, the Jays are now 4-11 against the three teams ahead of them. Not only that, but more than half their remaining games (39 of 79) are against those same three teams -- the Yankees, the Red Sox and the Rays.

 

This is the part of the article I can't get over. More than half your remaining games against those three teams? That is what you call rough!

[Jordan4life_2007]

What do you think is a fair deal on our part, and what do you think the Blue Jays would ask for?

 

The Blue Jays don't give two s***s about how many years he has left on his contract or his age. He's one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball and has shown no signs at all of slowing down. They're not givin' him up for anything less than a knockout package. Think along the lines of what the Mariners gave up for Bedard. If no team is willing to pony up, he'll remain a Blue Jay. Simple as that. They're in no position to have to trade Halladay (unlike the Padres with Peavy).

Edited July 6, 2009 by Jordan4life

[knightni]

I'm not interested in trading Flowers in a trade for Halladay.

 

Allen, Poreda, Hudson, and Richard (Fields, Anderson). Fine.

 

In my opinion, Beckham, Flowers, Danks, and Viciedo are off-limits; for someone of Halladay's age.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I'm not interested in trading Flowers in a trade for Halladay.

 

Allen, Poreda, Hudson, and Richard (Fields, Anderson). Fine.

 

In my opinion, Beckham, Flowers and Viciedo are off-limits; for someone of Halladay's age.

 

Beckham and Viciedo aren't going anywhere. Flowers is a different story, IMO. If he sticks at catcher, he's probably untouchable. If not, he's fair game.

[scotty22hotty]

Would rather see Aaron Poreda as our #5...

The Blue Jays would want way too much for him.

If they take the same offer as the Peavy trade... great, but anything more is robbery.

[knightni]

Beckham and Viciedo aren't going anywhere. Flowers is a different story, IMO. If he sticks at catcher, he's probably untouchable. If not, he's fair game.

I also included Danks.

 

The last thing the Sox want to do is to piss off John Danks before he signs an extension.

[greg775]

Ok, Allen, Poreda, Richards and Fields. We in return get Halladay and Scott Rolen.

 

You guys are nuts. Isn't Allen supposed to be a total stud? Ditto Poreda? And many think Richard will be a big league starter. They won't want Fields.

You've got to be creative. I don't know who to trade, but you can't put 3-4 top prospects together for a pitcher. A pitcher's arm can be f***ed at any time.

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

You guys are nuts. Isn't Allen supposed to be a total stud? Ditto Poreda? And many think Richard will be a big league starter. They won't want Fields.

You've got to be creative. I don't know who to trade, but you can't put 3-4 top prospects together for a pitcher. A pitcher's arm can be f***ed at any time.

 

You crack me up sometimes. You're honestly gonna tell me you would have a problem parting with Allen, Poreda and Richard for a pitcher the caliber of Roy Halladay because there's a chance his arm could fall off?

[greg775]

All I hear is Allen is the next big thing. Isn't he the next Big Hurt? Why can't we engineer a trade where we clearly win the trade once in a while?

[Jordan4life_2007]

All I hear is Allen is the next big thing. Isn't he the next Big Hurt? Why can't we engineer a trade where we clearly win the trade once in a while?

 

LMAO. I love you, man. Win a trade once in a while? You mean like the Danks trade? The Floyd trade? The Thornton trade? How about CQ? Jose Contreras for Loaiza? Did we not win that one?

Edited July 6, 2009 by Jordan4life

[Soxbadger]

2009 - 102 pitches/game (16 starts) - Most in one game (133) - Number of times over 120 (1)

2008 - 108 pitches/game (33 starts) - Most in one game (130) - Number of times over 120 (2)

2007 - 107 pitches/game (31 starts) - Most in one game (126) - Number of times over 120 (5)

2006 - 095 pitches/game (32 starts) - Most in one game (118) - Number of times over 120 (0)

2005 - missed time with a fracture in on his lower left leg

2004 - missed time with shoulder soreness/fatigue

2003 - 100 pitches/game (36 starts) - Most in one game (122) - Number of times over 120 (2)

2002 - 103 pitches/game (34 starts) - Most in one game (126) - Number of times over 120 (1)

 

I'll give you 04 because 36 games started is higher than average for an ace, but for reference sake, Buehrle had 35 GS last year. But he did have some arm fatigue in 05, so I'll chalk that one up to his arm not as strong as it should have been/being tired from the previous season.

 

But 05 had nothing to do with his arm, he had a fracture in his league. And if you look at his average pitches per game, he really isn't overworked. Because you are an efficient pitcher and throw a lot of innings doesn't mean your overworked.

 

Okay Buerhle is a soft tossing lefty, so the comparison is pretty horrific.

 

Secondly MB had 34 gs last year, he had 30 the year before and 32 the year before that. Since 2005, he has not pitched over 220 innings.

 

Third, last year Halladay threw 3552 pitches. MB threw 3385. The year before Halladay thew 3323, MB 3099.

 

Fourth, prior to 2007 Halladay was averaging 3.46 pitches per plate appearance, since then he has been in the 3.58 range.

 

I guess your not going to convince me a player who has that much wear on his arm is a good bet to stay healthy. If he was a soft tossing lefty like MB or Jamie Moyer, the pitch count wouldnt be as worrisome. But Halladay isnt that type of a pitcher, and Im not sure how much Id spend on a pitcher who has thrown 38k pitches.

 

[SoxAce]

Sox are much, much higher on Tyler Flowers than Brandon Allen. Flowers will stick at catcher as KW has stated many times already. IMO, he's about as close to an untouchable as Gordon Beckham. Viciedo has a chance to be there himself. I think everyone else is available if the price is right.

[Balta1701]

You crack me up sometimes. You're honestly gonna tell me you would have a problem parting with Allen, Poreda and Richard for a pitcher the caliber of Roy Halladay because there's a chance his arm could fall off?

Given the salary issues, yeah I might have a problem with that. We're going to really need someone at 1b in a year or two and Allen is on that path, and he's a lefty to boot, which will provide some balance in our lineup.

 

I could live with it, if we thought Hudson would be ready to go next year, thus we'd still have another cheap starter, and we'd have some money to spend at 1b to fill that hole. I really don't like the idea of trading 3 guys for Halladay at his age and with his contract status; the odds are at least 1 of those 3 is going to wind up be really quite good, perhaps more than 1 of them, and that cheap pitcher/player/both could be really useful to us.

[greg775]

I gave him a Grade C in the 2006 book, noting comparisons being made to Fred McGriff and Ryan Howard, but also noting it would take time for him to develop.

 

Oh you are done? Sorry to waste your precious time on this Internet message board.

I just saw that quote based on minorleaguebaseball.com.

So he's not compared to big hurt; he's compared to Howard and McGriff. My bad. I don't know why everybody has to agree with everybody else, lest you are deemed a mental midget on message boards. I had heard somewhere Allen was supposed to be a f***ing stud and I know Poreda is good.

 

I see you edited your post where you don't say you are done. Thanks for the edit.

Edited July 6, 2009 by greg775

[southsider2k5]

Not necessarily anyone in particular. I just wouldn't pay that price for Halladay. Hell, if you want him, he'll be a FA in 1.5 years. That's the point.

 

The window could well be closed in a year and a half as pretty much every offensive player over 25 on this team will also be a FA.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Oh you are done? Sorry to waste your precious time on this Internet message board.

I just saw that quote based on minorleaguebaseball.com.

So he's not compared to big hurt; he's compared to Howard and McGriff. My bad. I don't know why everybody has to agree with everybody else, lest you are deemed a mental midget on message boards. I had heard somewhere Allen was supposed to be a f***ing stud and I know Poreda is good.

 

I see you edited your post where you don't say you are done. Thanks for the edit.

 

Yeah, I didn't want to come off as an ass. I still don't agree with your reasoning.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Given the salary issues, yeah I might have a problem with that. We're going to really need someone at 1b in a year or two and Allen is on that path, and he's a lefty to boot, which will provide some balance in our lineup.

 

I could live with it, if we thought Hudson would be ready to go next year, thus we'd still have another cheap starter, and we'd have some money to spend at 1b to fill that hole. I really don't like the idea of trading 3 guys for Halladay at his age and with his contract status; the odds are at least 1 of those 3 is going to wind up be really quite good, perhaps more than 1 of them, and that cheap pitcher/player/both could be really useful to us.

 

So pretty much you're in the pass on Halladay camp. No problem. My problem is when I see something like "I'd love to get him as long as we don't have to give up Beckham, Danks, Allen, Hudson, Poreda, Flowers or basically anybody with a fraction of talent." lol.

Edited July 6, 2009 by Jordan4life

[greg775]

Yeah, Kenny clearly has won some trades, so I shouldn't say "for once."

But in a blockbuster I was hoping the 3-4 guys we ship for a Halladay wouldn't be all guys that have been mentioned as big parts of our future.

Maybe Richard is not a top prospect; after his first couple starts this year I thought he looked like a very good prospect.

Poreda and Allen I'm going by what I've heard and everybody seems to think they are good big leaguers.

I don't know what I'd offer for Halladay. I guess it's why KW gets the big bucks.

[qwerty]

This post belongs here also.

 

To go further, why would Hudson or Jordan Danks be untouchable? If anything, they would be prime players to be traded because their stock is extremely high right now. You're talking about a GM who flipped de los Santos after one phenomenal year (and a better one than Hudson is currently having), so I don't see why anyone outside of Beckham and possibly Vicideo should be untouchable unless you're just ignorantly latching onto someone. Are the aforementioned players extremely valuable? Absolutely. Should they be untouchable? Of course not.

 

[Balta1701]

So pretty much you're in the pass on Halladay camp. No problem. My problem is when I see something like "I'd love to get him as long as we don't have to give up Beckham, Danks, Allen, Hudson, Poreda, Flowers or basically anybody with a fraction of talent." lol.

I would give up Richard and Poreda combined, or something along those lines. For a guy Halladay's age and only signed for 1.5 years I won't go beyond that. I'd only igve up 2 of the guys you list, and I wouldn't go for Beckham or Danks, and Flowers going would only happen on the condition that he's the only major piece from the top levels of the minors. If I had a scout or two saying there was some reason to undervalue one of those guys then that could change my thinking, but quite simply, even if all we get is an adequate back of the rotation starter from Richard, a very good bullpen part from Poreda, and average production from Allen, those 3 guys at minimal cost for 6+ years is worth a hell of a lot more than 1.5 years of Halladay unless you guarantee he wins you the world series this year, and no one can guarantee that.