Halladay Superthread

[DBAHO]

Of course they are going to ask for Beckham.

 

If there's one weakness for the Jays going forward, it's that Rolen and Scutaro are aging and Beckham would fit in very nicely. And plus in the AL East if you are going to win the division, you need to hit. Beckham, Lind, Snider, Rios and Hill gives them an excellent young core to build around for the future.

 

And they've got enough pitching (Richmond, Romero, Purcey etc.) and with Marcum and McGowan to come back still, that they don't exactly need a Clayton Richard (who may not be any better than those guys going forward).

[DBAHO]

The Dodgers would need to part with either Billingsley or Kershaw to make the deal according to Rosenthal, so they would not have all three.

 

Viciendo isnt going anywhere, in part because he signed less than a year ago, I think Beckham is off limits as is most of the ML roster, other than that any of the prospects can be had in the right deal.

Well that would probably be a deal breaker for them I'd imagine.

 

I could see them offering Dewitt + Elbert + a couple of other things to try and start things from there.

[Balta1701]

The Dodgers would need to part with either Billingsley or Kershaw to make the deal according to Rosenthal, so they would not have all three.

The Blue Jays just aren't going to get that kind of deal from anyone. They're not getting Becks from us, they're not getting Billingsly or kershaw from the Dodgers, they're not getting, you know, Tommy Hanson from the Braves, whatever. If they're asking for untouchables, they're not really interested in dealing him.

 

The Dodgers could make a solid package perhaps with a guy like Elbert combined with one of their more recent draftees, but it's still a package that I think Poreda + Richard + one of our A ballers likely beats. Halladay for either Billingsly or Kershaw is just stupid from the Dodgers perspective.

[chisoxfan09]

I think one of these would be a good reaction to them wanting Beckham:

 

 

BearSox, I am just a rollin with that one. It was just too funny!!!

[dpd9189]

The Blue Jays just aren't going to get that kind of deal from anyone. They're not getting Becks from us, they're not getting Billingsly or kershaw from the Dodgers, they're not getting, you know, Tommy Hanson from the Braves, whatever. If they're asking for untouchables, they're not really interested in dealing him.

 

The Dodgers could make a solid package perhaps with a guy like Elbert combined with one of their more recent draftees, but it's still a package that I think Poreda + Richard + one of our A ballers likely beats. Halladay for either Billingsly or Kershaw is just stupid from the Dodgers perspective.

 

 

I just don't see the Jays dealing him unless someone offers the farm. This isn't Peavy, Halladay is better and the Jays would want a kings ransom for him. I don't see KW or any other GM doing this unless they don't mind losing their top 3-4 prospects.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

If the deal a previous poster mentioned would work (Halladay for Flowers + Poreda + Richard + Getz), then I make it in a heartbeat because that would be a great deal for the Sox. I haven't looked at all the stats from everyone, but Roy Halladay has probably been the #2 SP in all of baseball over the last 8 years, only trailing Johan Santana. He is beyond amazing and I am confident in saying that no one in our minor league system, and probably no prospect we'll add to our system over the next 5+ years will ever have the type of career Roy Halladay has had. To give up everything we've got would be dumb, and potentially devastating, but a deal like that above would still save enough future pieces while keeping the veteran core intact. It would be a steal actually, and if I were a Jays fan I'd definitely want more.

 

The key would be an extension as he's only signed through 2010, but Halladay has never come off as a pure money guy. He's basically been Toronto's Buehrle and to even mention dealing him shows just how much the Jays need savings. Lots of players don't even want to play in Canada, and he stayed there when he could have hit the market and got a lot more in terms of money and years. We might have to give Halladay an extra 3 years in order for him to stop from hitting the market and getting 5 from a big money team, but I'd definitely do it if we had to. He is one of those extremely rare pitchers that I would agree to pay through his Age 36 season. Keep in mind too that Derek Lowe is signed through his Age 39 season and is having a decent year at 36 right now, so it's definitely not unprecedented, and it's definitely far from from a sure thing that he'd be ineffective as a 35-year-old and going forward. Saying Halladay will fall apart during those years is just a guess, and not even an educated guess because his history has not shown great cause for concern. And as I said before in this thread or some other, an older Halladay is a much better bet IMO than an younger Peavy.

 

My top offer for Halladay would be something like Flowers (centerpiece) + Poreda + Hudson + Jays' pick 2 of DCarter/Leesman/Upchurch/Infante/Jones/Santeliz/Omogrosso PROVIDED we get a window to work out an extension before the trade is completed. Yes that is a bundle of talent, but we're probably going to end up dealing Bobby and/or Paulie at some point so we'll get some of that back.

 

My favorite type of deal would be one where we also get Rolen in order to assume some salary in exchange for giving up less in prospects, and then we keep Poreda and deal Richard instead. Halladay + Rolen for Flowers + Richard + Hudson + Fields + low-level prospects would work out great for us, because we upgrade Fields and Richard at the cost of Hudson, Flowers, and a spect. Then Poreda becomes the 5th starter in 2010 after Jose leaves, and Viciedo comes up in 2011 after Rolen is gone. Getz and Nix both take UT roles with Beckham moving to 2B.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I just don't see the Jays dealing him unless someone offers the farm. This isn't Peavy, Halladay is better and the Jays would want a kings ransom for him. I don't see KW or any other GM doing this unless they don't mind losing their top 3-4 prospects.

Exactly.

 

The only way Halladay comes cheap is someone takes on Rios or Wells - especially Wells. If someone takes on Wells then they can probably get Halladay for a package as weak as one centered around Richard or Fields.

[bighurt574]

If we can get Halladay in a package without giving up Beckham we should give it a shot. When you're talking about one of the top pitchers in baseball, people are getting way too attached to our solid but hardly elite prospects.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I think one of these would be a good reaction to them wanting Beckham:

 

That's what I'll start doing the moment a trade is announced, assuming we get him.

 

BTW I also really question the early reports on these things anyway. Rosenthal says the Jays "wouldn't hesitate" to open bidding to the Yankees and Red Sox. Really? I imagine the priorities go 1) dump Wells in the deal, 2) dump Rios in the deal, 3) NL, 4) anywhere but the AL East where he'll kill us all year.

[Balta1701]

That's what I'll start doing the moment a trade is announced, assuming we get him.

 

BTW I also really question the early reports on these things anyway. Rosenthal says the Jays "wouldn't hesitate" to open bidding to the Yankees and Red Sox. Really? I imagine the priorities go 1) dump Wells in the deal, 2) dump Rios in the deal, 3) NL, 4) anywhere but the AL East where he'll kill us all year.

I don't think they'd hesitate to open it up to them either. They'd just be asking for either Lester or Chamberlain, plus someone else from each team. If they're asking for Beckham or Kershaw/Billingsly, then that's about equal value, and why wouldn't they open up the bidding if they can get one of those guys?

 

That's the whole point here. They've set the price so ridiculously high right now that they'd trade him to their worst rivals if that other team met the price. There's no reason to deal under those circumstances. You can't win that deal.

[Steve9347]

My favorite type of deal would be one where we also get Rolen in order to assume some salary in exchange for giving up less in prospects, and then we keep Poreda and deal Richard instead. Halladay + Rolen for Flowers + Richard + Hudson + Fields + low-level prospects would work out great for us

That would be glorious.

[BearSox]

Adding Rolen and Halladay would easily make us favorites in the central. Move Slayer to 2B, we got the return of Q. Look at that lineup:

 

1. Pods, CF

2. Ramirez, SS

3. Dye, RF

4. Thome, DH

5. Konerko, 1B

6. Rolen, 3B

7. Quentin, LF

8. Pierzynski, C

9. Beckham, 2B

 

Plus, we'd have one of Halladay, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, or Contreras on the mound. Awesomeness.

[jasonxctf]

If the deal a previous poster mentioned would work (Halladay for Flowers + Poreda + Richard + Getz), then I make it in a heartbeat because that would be a great deal for the Sox. I haven't looked at all the stats from everyone, but Roy Halladay has probably been the #2 SP in all of baseball over the last 8 years, only trailing Johan Santana. He is beyond amazing and I am confident in saying that no one in our minor league system, and probably no prospect we'll add to our system over the next 5+ years will ever have the type of career Roy Halladay has had. To give up everything we've got would be dumb, and potentially devastating, but a deal like that above would still save enough future pieces while keeping the veteran core intact. It would be a steal actually, and if I were a Jays fan I'd definitely want more.

 

the key word is had... not will have.

 

What type of future will a 32 year old pitcher who's gone 220IP+ over the past 3 years, have in the next 2-3 years. (even though he's only signed thru next season)

 

Will a 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 version of Roy Halladay (so 33, 34, 35 and 36 yrs old) be greater than Tyler Flowers, Aaron Pordea, Clayton Richard and Chris Getz's version in 2011, 2012, 2013.

 

That's got to be the big question.

 

Short term, 2009 only, its a steal. Long term??????????

[ILMOU]

Adding Rolen and Halladay would easily make us favorites in the central. Move Slayer to 2B, we got the return of Q. Look at that lineup:

 

1. Pods, CF

2. Ramirez, SS

3. Dye, RF

4. Thome, DH

5. Konerko, 1B

6. Rolen, 3B

7. Quentin, LF

8. Pierzynski, C

9. Beckham, 2B

 

Plus, we'd have one of Halladay, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, or Contreras on the mound. Awesomeness.

 

[Balta1701]

the key word is had... not will have.

 

What type of future will a 32 year old pitcher who's gone 220IP+ over the past 3 years, have in the next 2-3 years. (even though he's only signed thru next season)

 

Will a 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 version of Roy Halladay (so 33, 34, 35 and 36 yrs old) be greater than Tyler Flowers, Aaron Pordea, Clayton Richard and Chris Getz's version in 2011, 2012, 2013.

 

That's got to be the big question.

 

Short term, 2009 only, its a steal. Long term??????????

Especially when you factor in the money.

[ILMOU]

Adding Rolen and Halladay would easily make us favorites in the central. Move Slayer to 2B, we got the return of Q. Look at that lineup:

 

1. Pods, CF

2. Ramirez, SS

3. Dye, RF

4. Thome, DH

5. Konerko, 1B

6. Rolen, 3B

7. Quentin, LF

8. Pierzynski, C

9. Beckham, 2B

 

Plus, we'd have one of Halladay, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, or Contreras on the mound. Awesomeness.

 

The Central, hell, that's a World Series lineup and rotation.

[Balta1701]

The Central, hell, that's a World Series lineup and rotation.

Which one of those 5 goes to the bullpen?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Adding Rolen and Halladay would easily make us favorites in the central. Move Slayer to 2B, we got the return of Q. Look at that lineup:

 

1. Pods, CF

2. Ramirez, SS

3. Dye, RF

4. Thome, DH

5. Konerko, 1B

6. Rolen, 3B

7. Quentin, LF

8. Pierzynski, C

9. Beckham, 2B

 

Plus, we'd have one of Halladay, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, or Contreras on the mound. Awesomeness.

At that point I'd want a lot more than just making the playoffs. That's a potential "all the way" team right there. Good god, imagine being a pitcher and trying to get through that lineup! And then knowing at the same time you can't afford to give up much because our rotation is above average and our pen is stacked.

Edited July 7, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[bighurt574]

the key word is had... not will have.

 

What type of future will a 32 year old pitcher who's gone 220IP+ over the past 3 years, have in the next 2-3 years. (even though he's only signed thru next season)

 

Will a 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 version of Roy Halladay (so 33, 34, 35 and 36 yrs old) be greater than Tyler Flowers, Aaron Pordea, Clayton Richard and Chris Getz's version in 2011, 2012, 2013.

 

That's got to be the big question.

 

Short term, 2009 only, its a steal. Long term??????????

 

 

I love it when people try to use a player's durability against them (i.e. 220+ IP in each of the past 3 years). Would you rather that he had arm problems in each of those years? Halladay has been very durable. Now, is mid-30s Halladay likely to be as dominant as late-20s early-30s Halladay? Some drop off is inevitable, but barring injuries (which any player can have), he should still be pretty, pretty good. I wouldn't give up Beckham for him, but I'd gladly trade a few of our other top prospects (Poreda, Flowers, etc.) along with a young guy or two with some MLB service time (Richard, Getz, Fields, etc.).

Edited July 7, 2009 by bighurt574

[ILMOU]

Which one of those 5 goes to the bullpen?

 

I love Jose and Richard as the long men in a playoff scenario. NOBODY, not the BoSox, Dodgers, or anyone else matches up with Roy, MB, Gavin and JohnnyDank.

 

I'm thinking that Flowers (after the drafting of Phegley) and Poreda could be the key pieces in any deal made, and we keep Richard. Kenny needs to convince Riccardi that middle infielders are relatively easy to find, whereas catching prospects like Flowers are truly uncommon.

[elrockinMT]

I'd pass on Doc H. Let's develop our own and compete that way

[Soxbadger]

I guess imo it all boils down to when do you think the Sox best window for winning is.

 

If you feel its the next 1.5 years, dealing for Halladay makes sense and you dont need to worry as much about the spects.

 

If you feel that the window is 2 years from now, trading for Halladay may not make a lot of sense.

 

 

[BearSox]

Which one of those 5 goes to the bullpen?

 

Put Jose in the pen, but I'd have him ready just in case Floyd or Danks falter early.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

the key word is had... not will have.

 

What type of future will a 32 year old pitcher who's gone 220IP+ over the past 3 years, have in the next 2-3 years. (even though he's only signed thru next season)

 

Will a 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 version of Roy Halladay (so 33, 34, 35 and 36 yrs old) be greater than Tyler Flowers, Aaron Pordea, Clayton Richard and Chris Getz's version in 2011, 2012, 2013.

 

That's got to be the big question.

 

Short term, 2009 only, its a steal. Long term??????????

I'd say yes on all counts with the only question being Flowers.

 

Getz is replaced by Beckham, and Beckham should easily out-produce Getz. Poreda just means we extend Thornton when it's time. Richard = back end starter or top-level setup man IMO, never anything close to Halladay, and if we need a 5th starter or lefty setup man we can find those. Flowers is the only one I'd ever expect to do really great things, but it's not like that's set in stone.

 

That deal would be a steal for the Sox and Jays fans would be rightfully pissed if it went down. We'd probably have to take on somebody's contract to get it.

 

BTW what about Halladay's career suggests he's going to suddenly start to suck when he hits his mid-30's? Lowe is signed through 39 and is having a decent year at 36, and he's not Halladay. Curt Schilling was awesome at 39. Randy Johnson was amazing through Age 38 and then only came back down to earth later on. He's also having a decent year right now and he's 45. Nolan Ryan was excellent until he was 43 and then retired at 46. Clemens has the steroid thing, but it takes a lot more talent than roids to put up a 1.87 ERA in 211.1IP as a 42-year-old. Jose Contreras, who has been up and down obviously, is reported as 37 right now and has been great for us since fully coming back from his achilles tear - and that achilles tear wasn't an "age" thing at all. That can happen to any player of any age at any time if make the wrong moves on a baseball field. Halladay may not be any of those guys, but they're all power pitchers, and he keeps himself in shape, and as a workhorse he's a lot closer to that breed than your CC Sabathia's, Bartolo Colon's, Jake Peavy's etc. of the world. Anything can happen, but I would in no way feel scared of locking him up through 36. After that, I think you have to wait and see how he performs before extending him further.

[southsider2k5]

That's what I'll start doing the moment a trade is announced, assuming we get him.

 

BTW I also really question the early reports on these things anyway. Rosenthal says the Jays "wouldn't hesitate" to open bidding to the Yankees and Red Sox. Really? I imagine the priorities go 1) dump Wells in the deal, 2) dump Rios in the deal, 3) NL, 4) anywhere but the AL East where he'll kill us all year.

 

If they include those two teams, the possiblity exists of a Miguel Cabrera type trade where they take on Wells or Rios contract, as well as Halladay. It would be win/win for Toronto.