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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 15, 2009 -> 07:43 PM)
Hudson pitched today, or Hudson's considered old?

 

I'm considering Hudson and all other pitchers out of college "old." I was talking about Griffith as the other young pitcher.

 

I probably should have phrased it better, but couldn't think of a good way to do so.

Edited by BearSox
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I can't figure out what the deal is with Shirek's lack of K's. All his other numbers look good so far in AA - ERA, WHIP, BB rate, AvgA is OK but not great... but he's only striking out about 3 guys per 9 innings. He was at 6.6 K/9 last season in Kanny, 6.1 in W-S this season, now just 2.8 in AA? Weird.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 16, 2009 -> 02:27 AM)
Tyler Kuhn now hitting over .400 for W-S, OPS approaching .900, in 73 AB.

It's all batting average inflated though that's the problem, his IsoP and IsoD's are pitiful at .069 and .019 respectively. When his insane .424 BABIP inevitably comes back to earth his numbers will look decidedly mediocre.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 15, 2009 -> 08:36 PM)
I can't figure out what the deal is with Shirek's lack of K's. All his other numbers look good so far in AA - ERA, WHIP, BB rate, AvgA is OK but not great... but he's only striking out about 3 guys per 9 innings. He was at 6.6 K/9 last season in Kanny, 6.1 in W-S this season, now just 2.8 in AA? Weird.

 

Could just be an anomaly. When you look at his game stats, he's throwing a high percentage of strikes. Likely over time, the strikeouts will revert to the mean.

 

 

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QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Jul 15, 2009 -> 08:39 PM)
It's all batting average inflated though that's the problem, his IsoP and IsoD's are pitiful at .069 and .019 respectively. When his insane .424 BABIP inevitably comes back to earth his numbers will look decidedly mediocre.

Except he had a high AVG at Kanny, and last year at GF too. He's been consistently high average all along.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 16, 2009 -> 03:11 AM)
Except he had a high AVG at Kanny, and last year at GF too. He's been consistently high average all along.

BABIP is a way of measuring luck, an average player will have a BABIP around .300, it can be positively or negatively affected by a players GB%, FB%, LD% or IF% and Kuhn does have a particularly high GB% which would raise his expected BABIP (ground balls historically go for hits more often than fly balls), but not to .424. When Kuhn's luck levels out his average will fall to his actual ability level of around .285-.315. His stat line at Kannapolis is much more realistic than his line at W-S.

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QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Jul 15, 2009 -> 09:49 PM)
BABIP is a way of measuring luck, an average player will have a BABIP around .300, it can be positively or negatively affected by a players GB%, FB%, LD% or IF% and Kuhn does have a particularly high GB% which would raise his expected BABIP (ground balls historically go for hits more often than fly balls), but not to .424. When Kuhn's luck levels out his average will fall to his actual ability level of around .285-.315. His stat line at Kannapolis is much more realistic than his line at W-S.

Sorry, I was more referring to the comment about his OPS being average-heavy (may have quoted the wrong post). I do understand BABIP, though I also think it is sometimes over-used as an analytical tool. My overall point is, he seems to be a high-AVG hitter in general.

 

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Shirek went 8 IP (don't usually see our minor league starters stay in that long). Gave up 8 H, 2 ER and one UER (pass ball by Price, which was the winning run for Mobile), 2 BB, but no strikeouts. Good outing, tough loss, but I still think its very odd that all his numbers are similar or better to what he did at Kanny and W-S, and yet his K rate is dramatically lower.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 16, 2009 -> 05:47 AM)
Sorry, I was more referring to the comment about his OPS being average-heavy (may have quoted the wrong post). I do understand BABIP, though I also think it is sometimes over-used as an analytical tool. My overall point is, he seems to be a high-AVG hitter in general.

Plus good hitters will have a higher BABIP. Why because they hit the ball harder more often. Dar. Just like really good pitchers will put up a lower batting average on balls in play (most often). Why because they have plus stuff (well this is in the case of the typical front of the rotation starters) and by having that plus stuff, less guys probably square em up.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 16, 2009 -> 08:56 AM)
Plus good hitters will have a higher BABIP. Why because they hit the ball harder more often. Dar. Just like really good pitchers will put up a lower batting average on balls in play (most often). Why because they have plus stuff (well this is in the case of the typical front of the rotation starters) and by having that plus stuff, less guys probably square em up.

keeping a high BABIP is certainly possible if you're a particularly smart/effective hitter, otherwise no one would ever hit well over .300 unless they were hitting 40+ home runs a year. But let's also keep in mind the kind of guys who really have consistently high BABIP: Jeter comes to mind, his career number is .358. Mauer is at about .341, .350 since his 2nd full season. Basically, you need a really high quality, intelligent hitter who is a difficult out and who can spray the ball all over the field to legitimately keep his BABIP that high for his career. Even then, .400 is pretty much unsustainable in the big leagues long term, but if you can do .350ish, you're going to have a hell of a long career.

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QUOTE (BearSox @ Jul 16, 2009 -> 10:07 AM)
I just don't believe there is any way to really determine if a player has been lucky or not unless you've seen them play a lot.

While I agree, even then though, some numbers, like a BABIP of .400+, are just unsustainable once you get faced with big league pitching and defenses. That's just been proven. Hall of famers don't push BABIP's of .400. Rod Carew's career mark was .360. He had a BABIP of 400+ 1 year, and hit .388 that year.

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