Can I get a Thome extension?

[103 mph screwball]

GREAT point, actually.

 

Here are games where this occured (Thome did not score on these walks himself, but they were "productive walks"):

 

4/13 Sox 10 Det 6, Thome walks with no outs in the 3rd inning to push up Fields and Quentin, who score on a double by konerko after a dye k (Thome is out on a subsequent FC to home)

 

5/10 Tex 7, Sox 1, Thome walks after Dye gets on base to push him to second. Konerko GIDPs, Dye to third who scores on a two out wild pitch.

 

5/26 Sox 4, LAA 2, Thome walks with one out pushing Alexei to second, he scores on a Konerko single.

 

6/6 Sox 4, Cle 2, Thome walks with one out and Pods already at third, which allows Konerko to hit him in on a sac fly.

 

6/8 Det 5, Sox 4, Thome walks with one out to push up Pods and Dye, setting up a sac fly with one out.

 

6/9 Det 7, Sox 6, Thome walks with the bases loaded to "drive" in a run.

 

6/14 Sox 5, Mil 4, Thome pinch walks the go-ahead run in the ninth inning to win the game for the sox (Clayton Richard pinch runs!)

 

6/29 Sox 6, Cle 3, Thome walks with nobody out to push up two runners who eventually score while Thome is out on an FC.

 

7/1 Sox 6, Cle 2, Thome walks with two outs to extend an inning and pushing Alexei up. Konerko doubles home Ramirez, Thome is thrown out at home on the same play.

 

7/11 Sox 8, Twins 7, Thome walks with one out to push Dye to second, who then scores on a Konerko single.

 

Total of 10 more walks. So Thome's "productive/run scoring" walk total is now up to 21/57, which I think still indicates that the value his walks/OBP/OPS have to the team might be overstated. Interesting to note that when Thome has one of these productive walks that he doesn't score on, the Sox are 7-3 in those games.

Nice work. Opposing pitchers throw more pitches and may get us to the pen quicker too. I could live with Big Jim's strikeouts, but I wish he would do something about the shift.

[GreatScott82]

I think the easy answer is JD. I thought about Big Jim earlier, but his bat has clearly slowed down, and he struggles to catch up to most fastballs now. Plus, he's becoming even streakier, his strikeout seems to be increasing, can only play DH and has injury concerns, and is now officially the slowest player on the White Sox and perhaps in all of baseball.

 

I actually doubt he'll be able to come close to 600 next year, that's how much his bat has slowed down. Sure, he still has hot streaks where he hits the daylights out of the ball, but those are becomming more and more infrequent. He also still walks a ton and gets on base at a great clip, but he can only score on a home run, or go from 1st to 3rd on a double. He can only score from second on a double.

 

JD will produce more in the long run, and as much as I'll be sad to see Big Jim go, JD gives the team a better shot at competing and winning.

Agreed! JD is comfortable here, he has produced consistently since he signed with us and has showed now signs of slowing down (at least offensively). I want JD as our DH next year.

[Greg Hibbard]

Ok, I dug a little deeper:

 

Lance Berkman - 23 of 69 walks (exactly 1/3rd) either generated a run for his team by scoring himself or another player. He is a very similar player to thome in that he has a .270ish average with a .400 OBP and virtually no speed. Gonna find one more example.

[ILMOU]

 

Lots of good comments. My take is that regardless of the decisions made, the Sox should try to stay about as left-handed among their regular batters as they are now. If they let Thome go and keep JD in the fold as the primary DH, then Jordan Danks needs to ready for the start of 2010. Even then, we lose our lefty power in the transition. Similarly, if Bacon is ultimately moved to 2B, it would be good to have the 3B be LH.

 

For these reasons and more, both Figgins (as always) and Dunn could be real targets in the offseason. Dunn, especially, solves the LH power issue, and could replace Paulie if he moves on after 2010, were we able to extend Dunn's deal. Either acquisition could allow a great deal more flexibility when Dayan eventually gets here, but Chone's best asset is likely to decline far sooner than Dunn's, and given the year he's having, his next deal is likely to be long enough that the decline in speed is almost assured. Noone really expects that Alfonso Soriano is going to steal 40 bases anymore do we?

 

One thing to remember is that Paulie is a couple years younger than Dye, and several younger than Big Jim. I can see all three being here next year, but after 2010, I believe that only Paulie will remain. Could go a lot of different ways, though.

[YASNY]

Lots of good comments. My take is that regardless of the decisions made, the Sox should try to stay about as left-handed among their regular batters as they are now. If they let Thome go and keep JD in the fold as the primary DH, then Jordan Danks needs to ready for the start of 2010. Even then, we lose our lefty power in the transition. Similarly, if Bacon is ultimately moved to 2B, it would be good to have the 3B be LH.

 

For these reasons and more, both Figgins (as always) and Dunn could be real targets in the offseason. Dunn, especially, solves the LH power issue, and could replace Paulie if he moves on after 2010, were we able to extend Dunn's deal. Either acquisition could allow a great deal more flexibility when Dayan eventually gets here, but Chone's best asset is likely to decline far sooner than Dunn's, and given the year he's having, his next deal is likely to be long enough that the decline in speed is almost assured. Noone really expects that Alfonso Soriano is going to steal 40 bases anymore do we?

 

One thing to remember is that Paulie is a couple years younger than Dye, and several younger than Big Jim. I can see all three being here next year, but after 2010, I believe that only Paulie will remain. Could go a lot of different ways, though.

 

LH hitting 3B? You don't find many Robin Venturas out there.

[santo=dorf]

This is interesting. The dude, at age 38, is still racking up a .400 OBP. He's the lefty stick you don't realize you miss until he's gone.

 

Anyway, just ranting on an underrated player.

Wait, the same Jim Thome who you called "done" back in April?

 

If this team either win the World Series or doesn't make the playoffs, I say you break up the band. If they do better than last year in the playoffs (with the exception of the winning the WS) I'd say live with JD's defense in RF for one more year.

[santo=dorf]

Jim has great stats in terms of OBP and OPS, but consider this...out of his 57 walks this season, he's only scored on 11 of them. So, how valuable are his walks, really?

 

I bring up this point because his batting average is pretty low these days, and I don't think with the way the team is constructed, him walking with say 2 outs is particularly advantageous to the club, because of his station to station nature as well as the station to station nature of the heart of the order. Sure, in the bottom of the eighth or ninth when we can pinch run, it's useful.

 

If his batting average were a bit higher, I'd say go for it, but it's likely to regress further, even if he continues to take walks. The walks that are propping up his OPS just aren't that useful. His RBI+R are < 100. He'll likely finish with a total around 160, which is well off of his most productive years.

 

And I love this man and would love to keep him...but realistically we need to get out after 2009.

Why should Thome be completely to blame for the guys behind him? With our bad 3rd base coach the only hit he will score on behind him is a Konerko home run.

 

Walk > not making an out. It's as simple as that. A guy can have a big average but make more outs than a guy like Thome. If Dye is going to be our #3 and Carlos ever finds his stick back, I think you'll see Thome get some more RBI's with a proper lineup shuffle.

 

Pods

Ramirez

Dye

Quentin

Thome

Konerko

AJ

Beckham

2B

 

Looks pretty good to me.

[witesoxfan]

Why should Thome be completely to blame for the guys behind him? With our bad 3rd base coach the only hit he will score on behind him is a Konerko home run.

 

Walk > not making an out. It's as simple as that. A guy can have a big average but make more outs than a guy like Thome. If Dye is going to be our #3 and Carlos ever finds his stick back, I think you'll see Thome get some more RBI's with a proper lineup shuffle.

 

Pods

Ramirez

Dye

Quentin

Thome

Konerko

AJ

Beckham

2B

 

Looks pretty good to me.

 

Agreed, though I believe you have to go into next year with Beckham as your 2Bman.

 

[soxfan3530]

As much as it would bum me out to let Thome go, I would keep Dye as our DH and let Jim walk.

[WCSox]

Agreed, though I believe you have to go into next year with Beckham as your 2Bman.

 

I realize that Fields hit a slam yesterday, but the Sox need a better option at 3B before they even consider moving Beckham.

 

[Balta1701]

I realize that Fields hit a slam yesterday, but the Sox need a better option at 3B before they even consider moving Beckham.

Without knowing what the Sox think of him behind closed doors, I wouldn't complain if he got another chance, esp. if he played some winterball, worked on his swing, etc. We know Fields can legitimately hit MLB pitching, he's done so before.

 

With Allen gone from our system, we're looking at having Getz, Beckham, Fields, Alexei, Konerko to cover the infield and DH positions next year prior to any trades or FA moves, with a hole in RF. It's plausible someone could be re-upped to fill 1 or 2 of those slots, but right now he has to be an option for next year, and hopefully the people in the back rooms feel like he's working better than Anderson did with the team and with the coaching staff.

[ILMOU]

LH hitting 3B? You don't find many Robin Venturas out there.

 

Chone is a SH, that would do as well.

 

[RME JICO]

I believe it will come down to who replaces JD in RF if he moves to DH (if he even wants to).

 

We know what we get out of JD + Thome, but will JD + ? or Thome + ? actually be any better?

 

Both of them are going to provide an OPS of .850 to .900, 30 HRs, 100 RBI every season - those are hard to replace. Even if Thome's numbers dip, he is a nice complement to PK, CQ, and JD.

[Greg Hibbard]

Walk > not making an out. It's as simple as that.

 

No, it's not that simple. Yes, of course walking is better than making an out, but I think everyone would agree that getting on base is only as valuable as how often it generates runs for you, and Thome's high OBP/OPS is misleading in terms of his Runs Created. It means nothing to your team if you take 20 two-out walks and are consistently stranded at first base because

 

a) you can't run

B) the offense behind you doesn't typically hit safely twice in a row.

 

My entire point was to say that of the 150 points that are boosting his OBP/OPS, more than 2/3rds of the time, they are just sort of meaningless boosters, such as a two out bases empty walk. Check out the box scores - that happened probably 20 times. I'd almost rather have a guy who hits .300 and has a .350 OBP, especially if he's far more proficient at hitting doubles and can steal a base. Thome's MO is homer, walk, strikeout or occasionally lucky single through the shift.

 

I don't think anyone would want to mess with the lineup this year, especially while everyone's running about as well as expected, but going forward, we do NOT need three slow dhs on this team and Thome is on schedule for the most precipitous decline even if he can be gotten for cheap.

Edited July 24, 2009 by Greg Hibbard

[WCSox]

Without knowing what the Sox think of him behind closed doors, I wouldn't complain if he got another chance, esp. if he played some winterball, worked on his swing, etc. We know Fields can legitimately hit MLB pitching, he's done so before.

 

With Allen gone from our system, we're looking at having Getz, Beckham, Fields, Alexei, Konerko to cover the infield and DH positions next year prior to any trades or FA moves, with a hole in RF. It's plausible someone could be re-upped to fill 1 or 2 of those slots, but right now he has to be an option for next year, and hopefully the people in the back rooms feel like he's working better than Anderson did with the team and with the coaching staff.

 

I'm not opposed to keeping Fields around, but not as a 3B. I can see him hitting .270 with 25 HR power at some point, but I don't see his defense improving significantly at 3B. If Kenny doesn't tap free agency this winter, I'd rather just move Fields to a corner OF position, keep Beckham at 3B for the time being, and get solid defense at 2B from Getz for the league minimum. And who knows... if Fields develops as a hitter next year while playing LF or RF, he'd probably be worth a lot on the FA market (and possibly a keeper as a corner OF).

 

[southsideirish71]

Dye should be our DH starting next year. If I had to bet which one will product better with the stick for the next few years, Dye would get my vote. Jimmy is a standup classy guy, however we need to balance our ability to be sentimental with our ability to compete for the next few years. I don't think that Dye gets a full time RF gig being that he is so defensively challenged. Maybe if someone needs a stick so bad.

 

 

[Chet Lemon]

As much as it would bum me out to let Thome go, I would keep Dye as our DH and let Jim walk.

 

I fully concur. As a replacement for Thome's LH power-bat in the order, could Dunn be acquired for the 2010 season?

[Balta1701]

I fully concur. As a replacement for Thome's LH power-bat in the order, could Dunn be acquired for the 2010 season?

Only via a trade.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm on the fence on a Thome extension. However, the analysis of how many times he scored from walks, or even helped runs score from walks, is an irrelevant measure to his future success. It is far too dependent on what other players do - in fact it is almost entirely dependent on what other players do. So this is just not a factor in my mind as to the value of his OBP, which is still quite good.

 

Thome is a very effective presence at DH. If you move Dye to DH you can get similar or slightly better production, probably, but they you have an OF hole to fill.

 

So what it really comes down to is, can the Sox find a major power bat for the OF in the offseason. If they can, Thome is expendable. If not, he is not.

 

ETA: Also, there is a danger looking at the future that the lineup could become to righty-heavy, if it isn't already. Thome helps address that, potentially.

 

[caulfield12]

Without knowing what the Sox think of him behind closed doors, I wouldn't complain if he got another chance, esp. if he played some winterball, worked on his swing, etc. We know Fields can legitimately hit MLB pitching, he's done so before.

 

With Allen gone from our system, we're looking at having Getz, Beckham, Fields, Alexei, Konerko to cover the infield and DH positions next year prior to any trades or FA moves, with a hole in RF. It's plausible someone could be re-upped to fill 1 or 2 of those slots, but right now he has to be an option for next year, and hopefully the people in the back rooms feel like he's working better than Anderson did with the team and with the coaching staff.

 

 

You're writing off Nix?

[NorthSideSox72]

You're writing off Nix?

Nix is a good option for a utility guy. Probably nothing more though, from everything I have seen.

 

[caulfield12]

But if Nix can maintain an 800+ BA against lefties and play Gold Glove defense (unlike Betemit), those are two pretty valuable qualities...and he's inarguably a better back-up SS than Getz.

 

Still, the bigger question going forward is not Nix but moving Beckham to 2B, going with Fields there again or making a veteran acquisition for 3B (although if the right 30-34 year old 2B, like an Alomar closer to his prime than when he actually came to the Sox would be an interesting option too, especially a leadoff hitter to provide insurance for Pods and maybe RH, to leadoff versus LHP)

[WCSox]

Nix is a good option for a utility guy. Probably nothing more though, from everything I have seen.

 

Agreed. I don't see any evidence that he's suddenly going to break out as a ML-caliber hitter next year at age 28. But I'd be all for him as a utility guy.

 

I think that some people here are way too focused on the idea of moving Beckham to 2B. It's a good idea in the long-run, but we need somebody better than Fields at 3B for it to make sense in the short-term.

 

Edited July 24, 2009 by WCSox

[Marty34]

I'd like to see them let Contreras, Dye, Thome, and Jenks all walk next year. 2010 is time to start reshaping this group.

[Disco72]

I'd like to see them let Contreras, Dye, Thome, and Jenks all walk next year. 2010 is time to start reshaping this group.

 

Fair enough - who would you like to take their places in OF, DH, rotation, and bullpen? Also, I assume you want to trade Jenks, not let him "walk."

 

This year, these guys have made Kenny's decision-making this year and offseason really tough because they've all played well enough (also Paulie), so it's in no way obvious which guys should not be back next season.