Who has the best rotation in the AL?

[caulfield12]

Buehrle/Peavy (when he's healthy, co #1's), Floyd, Danks (one of the best "4th" starters in baseball), CONTRERAS (OOPS) and now Torres/Carrasco/Garcia/Colon/TBA.

 

Yankees=Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Chamberlain, Petitte, Mitre (Wang/Kennedy/Hughes)

 

Red Sox=Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Buchholz, Penny, (Dice K/Smoltz)

 

Angels=Lackey, Weaver, Saunders, E. Santana, Palmer (Escobar/Loux/Moseley)...would have given them the advantage before this season.

 

Rays=Shields, Kazmir, Garza, Price, Niemann, Sonnanstine

 

Definitely, we have the best starting rotation outside of the AL East, there's no arguing that much.

 

2nd, do we make a move for Doug Davis or Paul Byrd to get possibly only 3 starts out of them (if Peavy's really coming back in August) or just gut it out with what we have...?

Edited August 1, 2009 by caulfield12

[SoxFan1]

I honestly feel comfortable enough bringing Torres up and letting him anchor the 5-man. If not, I wouldn't mind trying to nab a cheap veteran through waivers.

[Leonard Zelig]

Did I miss something or is Contreras still in the rotation?

[BearSox]

The 5 spot will likely be given to Torres while Colon is on the DL. But sadly, odds are we will give Colon the spot again after he comes off the DL.

 

One thing I would do, get as many lefties I can from the waiver wire or whatever. We need more options than just Randy Williams.

[knightni]

Buehrle

Peavy

Danks

Floyd

Contreras

[caulfield12]

Right now, if it was the playoffs and you had only two choices, I would want Gavin Floyd over Danks. But that's just me.

[Felix]

Right now, if it was the playoffs and you had only two choices, I would want Gavin Floyd over Danks. But that's just me.

Yes, it is.

[ThunderBolt]

Yes, it is.

It depends is BJ Upton batting in one of these playoff games?

[Felix]

Here's a look at their numbers over the past two seasons:

 

Danks: 308.1 IP (52 GS), 3.53 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.57 K/BB, 0.8 HR/9, 130 ERA+

Floyd: 343.1 IP (55 GS), 3.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.23 K/BB, 1.1 HR/9, 117 ERA+

 

So basically, Danks gives up slightly less walks while slightly striking out more batters and giving up less home runs, and ultimately less runs. Gavin has thrown more innings per start, but I think some of that has to do with Ozzie's handling of Danks given Gavin's extra few years of age.

Edited August 1, 2009 by Felix

[rangercal]

Right now, if it was the playoffs and you had only two choices, I would want Gavin Floyd over Danks. But that's just me.

 

I'm with you

[caulfield12]

Another possibility:

 

Tigers with Verlander/E. Jackson/Washburn/Porcello/Galarraga (backed up by Miner/Bonderman/Willis/Robertson)

 

But I was thinking more of 2010+ than just this year...

 

 

Think this writer wants to bury his column now??

 

We’ll start with Jackson - odds are that Dombrowski sees him as a young, high upside hurler who just had a breakthrough season and established himself as an innings eater at worst with potential to become a mid-rotation starter. After all, he threw 180 innings, posted a 4.42 ERA, just turned 25 years old, throws hard, and was considered a top prospect not too long ago.

 

However, Jackson didn’t have any kind of breakout year - he’s the same pitcher he’s always been. His FIP in 2007 was 4.90. His FIP in 2008 was 4.88. He cut his BB% down by over a full walk per game, but his strikeout rate fell from 7.16 to 5.30, canceling out the effect of the better command. The huge drop in ERA was thanks to the significantly improved defense the Rays put behind him (.351 BABIP in ‘07, .301 in ‘08) and some good luck stranding runners. The Rays defense isn’t going with him to Detroit, and the luck probably won’t either.

 

Jackson’s not useless - Marcel thinks he’ll put up a 4.64 FIP over 160 innings next year, so that makes him about +5 runs worse than an average pitcher and +15 runs better than a replacement level version. As a #5 starter, he’s not a problem, but that’s all he is.

 

To get Jackson, the Tigers parted with Matt Joyce, one of the few promising young players they had left in the organization. I generally don’t go for one for one comparisons that often, but in this case, the Jayson Werth comp works so well that I feel obligated to put it out there. Joyce is, essentially, a left-handed Werth - a guy who can play very good defense in a corner OF spot, has gap power and will walk occasionally, but whose lower contact rate will always keep his average down. Depending on how well he adjusts to being a full time player, the Rays should expect something between .260/.320/.430 and .270/.340/.470.

 

That makes Joyce something like a +2 win outfielder right now, and if he hits the high side of that projection, it’s more like +2.5 to +3 wins. Joyce is a better player, right now, than Jackson. He’s also under team control for two extra years and isn’t arb. eligible after the 2009 season as Jackson will be.

 

For the Rays, this is a huge win - they solve their right field issue with a quality, low cost player that easily gives them the game’s best defensive outfield. A Crawford/Upton/Joyce trio is going to be staggeringly good at chasing down balls in the gap. To boot, they open up a spot in the rotation for David Price, so they’re almost certainly going to be upgrading their rotation simultaneously.

 

The Rays get a lot better, while the Tigers shuffle pieces around and cost themselves some flexibility. Thumps up for Tampa, and a big thumbs down for Detroit.

Edited August 1, 2009 by caulfield12

[DukeNukeEm]

one RH ace and one LH ace is a very rare, and valuable, commodity.

[Balta1701]

Until we see how Buchholz, Porcello, Hughes develop, on paper it's us.

 

those guys could each develop in to legit 1-2 starters, and give those teams an advantage. But then...we have Hudson on the way, and money to spend still.

[WCSox]

I honestly feel comfortable enough bringing Torres up and letting him anchor the 5-man.

 

Torres pitched OK in his one ML appearance, but left a lot of pitches up in the zone and got away with a lot. I liked the way that he attacked the plate and he very well may have a future with this team, but who knows if he'll be able to handle the 5th spot this year. That said, I'm so freaking psyched about Peavy that I'm not too concerned about it right now.

 

[WCSox]

Until we see how Buchholz, Porcello, Hughes develop, on paper it's us.

 

If the Sox even stumble into the playoffs, their opponents are going to have to face Peavy, Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd. Ouch.

 

[southsider2k5]

We might not have the best starter for a #1, but pretty much we have 2 #1 starters and 3 #2 guys. That blows away most of the AL. If we can get a consistant offense, and a defense that doesn't hurt us too bad, we have a chance.

[Felix]

We might not have the best starter for a #1, but pretty much we have 2 #1 starters and 3 #2 guys. That blows away most of the AL. If we can get a consistant offense, and a defense that doesn't hurt us too bad, we have a chance.

Jose Contreras is a #2 guy? Are we talking about the same Jose Contreras that is "37" and hasn't had an ERA below 4 since 2005 (which was also the last time he threw 200+ innings)? He's far from being a #2 guy, and is much closer to a #4 or 5, which is exactly what we need given the rest of the rotation. But let's not kid ourselves here.. he's not a #2.

[SoxFan1]

Jose Contreras is a #2 guy? Are we talking about the same Jose Contreras that is "37" and hasn't had an ERA below 4 since 2005 (which was also the last time he threw 200+ innings)? He's far from being a #2 guy, and is much closer to a #4 or 5, which is exactly what we need given the rest of the rotation. But let's not kid ourselves here.. he's not a #2.

It's such a toss-up with him. When he's on, he's an absolute ace #1, no doubt. Then there is those nights where he doesn't have the best control but still pitches well enough to only give up 2-3 runs, which I'd say would be a solid #2. The main problem is that he mixes in too many of those "I have nothing tonight and give up 8 runs" games.

 

[joejoedairy]

It's such a toss-up with him. When he's on, he's an absolute ace #1, no doubt. Then there is those nights where he doesn't have the best control but still pitches well enough to only give up 2-3 runs, which I'd say would be a solid #2. The main problem is that he mixes in too many of those "I have nothing tonight and give up 8 runs" games.

 

for about a month after he came back he was probably a number 2 at worst. but he was working quickly and using his fastball and not droppng down as much

 

 

in his last 3 starts hes been pitching like a 5 or worse cuz hes been walking way too many guys and being timid on the mound.

 

Jose has done everything you could ever ask from a pitcher for this organization (lead us to a world series, volunteer to go to the minors to refine his game so he could still compete, etc.) but at the end of this season, its time for him to move on.

 

thanks for everything jose but good bye

[Chisoxfn]

Buehrle/Peavy (when he's healthy, co #1's), Floyd, Danks (one of the best "4th" starters in baseball), CONTRERAS (OOPS) and now Torres/Carrasco/Garcia/Colon/TBA.

 

Yankees=Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Chamberlain, Petitte, Mitre (Wang/Kennedy/Hughes)

 

Red Sox=Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Buchholz, Penny, (Dice K/Smoltz)

 

Angels=Lackey, Weaver, Saunders, E. Santana, Palmer (Escobar/Loux/Moseley)...would have given them the advantage before this season.

 

Rays=Shields, Kazmir, Garza, Price, Niemann, Sonnanstine

 

Definitely, we have the best starting rotation outside of the AL East, there's no arguing that much.

 

2nd, do we make a move for Doug Davis or Paul Byrd to get possibly only 3 starts out of them (if Peavy's really coming back in August) or just gut it out with what we have...?

If you are talking top 4, I'd have to say the White Sox. But right now Peavy is hurt so they can't truly be in that discussion and we know I feel this way because I absolutely love Gavin Floyd too.

 

I put the Sox at the top because I don't buy Joba as a starter (can't go deep into games yet) and Pettite isn't as good as he used to be. Boston has a great 1-2 but Wakefield is on the DL, Bucholtz is unproven and Penny/DiceK/Smoltz haven't looked good.

 

Really love the ANgels, they right now are my 1. No true ace but Lackey/Saunders/Weaver/Santana is pretty damn good when healthy.

 

Drays have a shot to be the best but Kazmir hasn't been that great, Price hasn't yet made the strides everyone expects him to make one day. I love Matt Garza though.

[Chisoxfn]

Here's a look at their numbers over the past two seasons:

 

Danks: 308.1 IP (52 GS), 3.53 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.57 K/BB, 0.8 HR/9, 130 ERA+

Floyd: 343.1 IP (55 GS), 3.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.23 K/BB, 1.1 HR/9, 117 ERA+

 

So basically, Danks gives up slightly less walks while slightly striking out more batters and giving up less home runs, and ultimately less runs. Gavin has thrown more innings per start, but I think some of that has to do with Ozzie's handling of Danks given Gavin's extra few years of age.

Or the fact that Gavin just has the better ability right now to go deeper into games. Both have been really good but Floyd had an atrocious start in there. Over his past 15 he's one of the 4 best pitchers in baseball IIRC (ERA wise). Or at least I swore I read that just after his Yankee start.

[caulfield12]

If you are talking top 4, I'd have to say the White Sox. But right now Peavy is hurt so they can't truly be in that discussion and we know I feel this way because I absolutely love Gavin Floyd too.

 

I put the Sox at the top because I don't buy Joba as a starter (can't go deep into games yet) and Pettite isn't as good as he used to be. Boston has a great 1-2 but Wakefield is on the DL, Bucholtz is unproven and Penny/DiceK/Smoltz haven't looked good.

 

Really love the ANgels, they right now are my 1. No true ace but Lackey/Saunders/Weaver/Santana is pretty damn good when healthy.

 

Drays have a shot to be the best but Kazmir hasn't been that great, Price hasn't yet made the strides everyone expects him to make one day. I love Matt Garza though.

 

 

I would have agreed over the last couple of seasons....maybe the Rays or Angels.

 

But look at Santana's ERA. He's Contreras April/May bad at this point. Saunders was almost as good as Cliff Lee last year, and a tick above Danks. Lackey is at 4.00, a bit higher than usual for him....maybe wear and tear on his arm over time? Weaver always shut down the Sox, so maybe he seems a bit better because of his dominance personally against us.

 

Buchholz obviously has the raw stuff and has had some pretty decent results before falling off the map last year...one of Buchholz on the trade market was probably equal to Richard/Poreda/Carter combined. They were lucky to only have to part with Masterson in their trading frenzy.

 

But pitching prospects are tricky...look at Homer Bailey, the Yankees' young starters, Price hasn't exactly lit the world on fire as easily as predicted.

 

 

[beautox]

I'm calling it now; Hudson destroys the AFL and breaks ST with the sox next year and puts up a line like this.

 

ERA+ 114

WHIP 1.34

185 IP

[caulfield12]

Any speculation on our 6 players for AFL?

 

Danks? Viciedo? Hudson? Ely? Shelby, III? Flowers to continue working on his catching for an extended period of time? Maybe a reliever like Santeliz or Nunez? Mitchell? Phegley (who's REALLY struggling so far in his adjustment to pro ball, putting up Francisco Hernandez-esque, the catching prospect, numbers)?

 

Maybe they will give Gartrell a shot coming off this season's numbers and hope to catch lightning in a bottle like they did with Wise.

 

 

[beautox]

Any speculation on our 6 players for AFL?

 

Danks? Viciedo? Hudson? Ely? Shelby, III? Flowers to continue working on his catching for an extended period of time? Maybe a reliever like Santeliz or Nunez? Mitchell? Phegley (who's REALLY struggling so far in his adjustment to pro ball, putting up Francisco Hernandez-esque, the catching prospect, numbers)?

 

Maybe they will give Gartrell a shot coming off this season's numbers and hope to catch lightning in a bottle like they did with Wise.

 

this is whom i would like to see get time in the AFL, everyone that has a fast track to the show.

 

Hudson, Danks, Viciedo, Flowers, Nunez and Mitchell