2010 Lineup

[GreatScott82]

The 2 areas of need this team needs to address this offseason is the outfield and bullpen. Currently this is our starting lineup that is signed for 2010:

 

Peavy, Buerhle, Floyd, Danks, ???

 

This is our biggest strength (thanks to KW's aggressivness!) But why not make it stronger. Go out and acquire a young starter. Guys like Zach Duke, Ohlendorf, and Cueto come to mind. If you make a deal to bring over a young cheap starter our rotation would be set for 3+ seasons.

 

1B Konerko

2B Getz

SS Ramirez

3B Beckham

OF Quentin

OF ???

OF ???

C Pierzynski

DH ???

 

I think the DH situation is easy. Buy out Dye's contract and re-sign him to a 2 year deal worth about 6-7 mill/season. That leaves 2 OF possitions open. I say you let Jordan Danks earn his wings at the big league level. He would provide even more speed to our lineup and plays above average defense. Brian Anderson #2 or Grady Siezmore-esque? Only time will tell but he's very young, talented and cheap. As far as the other outfield spot, try to make a deal for Carl Crawford- perhaps a Jenks, Hudson package could get it done? If Crawford is too hard to get, Chone Figgins is a very nice option via free agency.

 

 

Bullpen: Jenks, Thorton, Linebrink, Pena, Carrasco, Williams, Nunez. . . ???. . ???

 

Ahhh, the 'crap shoot' known as the bullpen. If we trade Jenks this offseason, you would have to think Thorton is promoted to closer. That leaves 2 big openings. Who is the righty setup man and who is the lefty set up man? Pena and Linebrink haven't shown me much to plug them in as a righty setup man. Carrasco is a good option for long relief. Williams is just getting his feet wet and Nunez is getting his feet wet. There are some interesting names via free agency, but honestly im not sure what KW plans on doing for the pen?

 

 

[lostfan]

NO way you play Q over JD in RF. You need a cannon for an arm for RF. And Q does not even compare to JD's rocket arm. I'd say Q splits time at DH and LF. And, as much as i would hate to see this, move Ramirez for prospects and perhaps bullpen help. He's got real value now and Bacon appears to be staying and should play his natural SS position. Just my thoughts.

JD's arm really isn't all it's cracked up to be. It's strong, but he never actually makes any good throws. You make it sound like Quentin has a girly arm though. Quentin is not Vladimir Guerrero but he still has a plus arm.

[WCSox]

JD's arm really isn't all it's cracked up to be. It's strong, but he never actually makes any good throws. You make it sound like Quentin has a girly arm though. Quentin is not Vladimir Guerrero but he still has a plus arm.

 

Quentin mostly played RF in Arizona, and I don't think that his arm is any worse than Maggs' was.

 

While JD obviously has a stronger arm, he'll be 36 next year and is becoming more susceptible to injuries. He should be moved to DH.

 

[GreatScott82]

Quentin mostly played RF in Arizona, and I don't think that his arm is any worse than Maggs' was.

 

While JD obviously has a stronger arm, he'll be 36 next year and is becoming more susceptible to injuries. He should be moved to DH.

I actually expect a DH/RF platoon type situation with Dye and Quentin next year with Q getting more of the defensive play. LF and CF are this winter's #1 targets.

[WCSox]

I actually expect a DH/RF platoon type situation with Dye and Quentin next year with Q getting more of the defensive play. LF and CF are this winter's #1 targets.

 

I don't see any reason for Quentin and Dye to platoon. They're both right-handed hitters and they've both played RF competently at the ML level. Dye is the logical choice to move to DH because of his age and decreasing range. I could definitely see Dye playing RF occasionally to give Quentin a rest, though.

 

Agreed about CF, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox offered Pods a one-year deal on the cheap and kept Wise around as a 4th outfielder. (If he isn't traded, Fields may also get reps in Charlotte as a LF.) They've already said that they're going to spend on middle relief, so I don't see them spending on two veteran OFs on top of it.

Edited August 3, 2009 by WCSox

[GreatScott82]

I don't see any reason for Quentin and Dye to platoon. They're both right-handed hitters and they've both played RF competently at the ML level. Dye is the logical choice to move to DH because of his age and decreasing range. I could definitely see Dye playing RF occasionally to give Quentin a rest, though.

 

Agreed about CF, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox offered Pods a one-year deal on the cheap and kept Wise around as a 4th outfielder. (If he isn't traded, Fields may also get reps in Charlotte as a LF.) They've already said that they're going to spend on middle relief, so I don't see them spending on two veteran OFs on top of it.

I really appreciate what Pods has done for us this season. But to expect Pods to maintain this production next season is not the smartest move to do. I don't see them spending on 2 veteran OF's either, but i would much rather give the CF spot to a young up and coming prospect like Jordan Danks over Pods.

Go after Crawford, if that fails sign Figgins for LF. And I highly doubt Josh Fields is brought back next season. He and KW pretty much both agreed that he will be moved this winter if not sooner.

 

 

[WCSox]

Yeah, I'd bet that Pods either gets injured or flames out next season as well. But I'm trying to look at this realistically. The Sox just committed a ton of money to Peavy, they're going to have to pay Jenks arbitration next year and/or sign more veteran relievers, they're going to have to spend on a FA CF, and they're going to have to either re-sign Dye (or Thome) or go after another power hitter on the FA market (e.g., Hank Blalock). Maybe I'm wrong, but there doesn't seem to be much money left over to pay for a veteran LF (assuming that they want one that can actually hit).

 

I also don't see Crawford as a viable option. The Rays will want a ton in return, and our farm system has already been depleted by Peavy deal. They'd probably want Hudson or Flowers, and those guys aren't going anywhere. And that's unfortunate, because having him at the top of the order would be incredible.

Edited August 3, 2009 by WCSox

[knightni]

Veteran LFs are one of the easiest positions to fill.

[soxfan3530]

resign dye to be your dh. do anything you can to bring carl crawford here. back up plan is bring back pods and sign Matt Holliday.

[BigSqwert]

Milton Bradley should be available.

[knightni]

resign dye to be your dh. do anything you can to bring carl crawford here. back up plan is bring back pods and sign Matt Holliday.

HOLLIDAY = SCOTT BORAS

[GreatScott82]

Yeah, I'd bet that Pods either gets injured or flames out next season as well. But I'm trying to look at this realistically. The Sox just committed a ton of money to Peavy, they're going to have to pay Jenks arbitration next year and/or sign more veteran relievers, they're going to have to spend on a FA CF, and they're going to have to either re-sign Dye (or Thome) or go after another power hitter on the FA market (e.g., Hank Blalock). Maybe I'm wrong, but there doesn't seem to be much money left over to pay for a veteran LF (assuming that they want one that can actually hit).

 

I also don't see Crawford as a viable option. The Rays will want a ton in return, and our farm system has already been depleted by Peavy deal. They'd probably want Hudson or Flowers, and those guys aren't going anywhere. And that's unfortunate, because having him at the top of the order would be incredible.

Here who is under contract for 2010:

Buerhle 14 million

Peavy 15 million

Konerko 12 million

Linebrink 5 million

Pierzynski 6.25 million

Ramirez 1.1 million

Thorton 2.25 million

Viciedo 1.25 million

Floyd 2.75 million

Jenks: ~5.6 million

Danks Arbitration: ~5 million

Quentin Arbitration: ~5 million

 

Other Pre-Arb and Arb players: another 5-7 million

 

Total Current Estimate: 82 million.

 

I'm guessing Reinsdorf wants that number to be around 90-95 million tops. That gives the Sox about 8-13 million to spend wisely. Freeing up another 5 million maybe what the doctor ordered to give KW more flexibility in free agency. Trading one of Linebrink and Jenks is likely KW's #1 priority this offseason. Trading Jenks for an outfielder this winter makes a lot of sense.

 

The Sox have a little flexibility this winter, but moving another 5 million could give KW about 15-18 million dollars to work with.

[WCSox]

Trading Linebrink is a pipe dream. No GM in his right mind would pick up damaged goods for that much.

 

I'd be dangling both Jenks and A.J. this winter to see what teams might be willing to give up. I'm assuming that A.J. is going to be difficult to deal, as he's somewhat overpaid by today's market standards. Jenks will probably be closer to $7-8 million this year, and his arbitration value may also make him difficult to deal. I had assumed that one of Dye or Thome would be re-signed, but who knows.

 

[GoodAsGould]

It's a shame about the Boras thing because I think a guy like Ankiel would be a better fit than Figgins (you just need a competent backup). He should come pretty cheap and there's a decent upside. Good fielder. Crisp does nothing for me. Crawford is going to be very expensive. Depending on price you could do worse than someone like Marlon Byrd, I suppose. A Mike Cameron return seems a little unlikely, but who knows. The CF free agent class looks thin to me.

 

Here's my oddball, no chance of happening lineup:

 

1B = Nick Johnson

3B = Beckham

LF = Quentin

RF = Dye

DH = Konerko

CF = Rick Ankiel

SS = Ramirez

C = Pierzynski

2B = Getz

 

You improve the defense with both changes and improve the offense with one of them. A lot of folks won't like Johnson as a leadoff hitter, so if needs be you can always put Getz there and shift everyone down a spot.

 

The two added players both should come in pretty cheap thanks to injuries and a fairly subtle set of skills. You can replace Ankiel with Byrd if you think there's no way we sign a Boras free agent.

 

That actually wouldnt be a half bad idea in adding Nick Johnson, I think the better move would be to sign Byrd or Crisp if he is available for CF but all 3 of those players are relatively cheap and would help us. Id probably leadoff Getz but besides that I like this idea.

[GreatScott82]

Trading Linebrink is a pipe dream. No GM in his right mind would pick up damaged goods for that much.

 

I'd be dangling both Jenks and A.J. this winter to see what teams might be willing to give up. I'm assuming that A.J. is going to be difficult to deal, as he's somewhat overpaid by today's market standards. Jenks will probably be closer to $7-8 million this year, and his arbitration value may also make him difficult to deal. I had assumed that one of Dye or Thome would be re-signed, but who knows.

I doubt Jenks arbitration value is over 6-6.5 million. You are probably right about Linebrink. But if there was one guy that would hold trade value this winter, it will be Bobby Jenks.

 

 

[caulfield12]

$6.5-7.5 million, maybe $8 million tops (behind Papelbon) is pretty accurate as a guesstimate for Bobby Jenks in ARB, unless he completely tanks over the remainder of the season and loses the closer's role or doesn't recover quickly from his kidney stones (and they're a b****, I had them once...I understand him blowing those saves a bit better now, sometimes the pain is so great and your back hurts so much that you throw up from the pain, even if you have nothing in your stomach, it's that debilitating).

 

 

[Pumpkin Escobar]

Jenks: ~5.6 million

 

 

I doubt Jenks arbitration value is over 6-6.5 million. You are probably right about Linebrink. But if there was one guy that would hold trade value this winter, it will be Bobby Jenks.

 

K...I get we have a weak economy and that arbitration cases havent seen this kind of climate before. However, Jenks made 5.6 million this year. Which is what we agreed on with him. Usually implying we met half way on an offer and lots of times more than half way to avoid arbitration because teams really do like to avoid going to a hearing and bashing their all-star player just to save a couple bucks.

 

Now, we as Sox fans, don't see Jenks as the greatest closer in baseball or baseball history. But when he steps in front of an independent arbitrator, who is paid to go on facts, - not opinions, or causes for concern with his stuff, or whatever - we are going to lose.

 

The reason we will lose is Jenks has been near record setting for us. He is near the top of several statistical categories for closers and he is the 2nd fastest all-time to 100 or 150 saves. Whatever the thing is - behind Sasaki.

 

He already made basically 6 million. It's rare you see a guy in arbitration not earn raises - I can think of Fuentes losing but thats more or less because he sucked. He doesnt have Jenks track record. Rare to the point that they usually have to totally regress or get hurt or whatever. They also will compare him to other closers around the league - some of which most recently just got nice paydays in a bad economy.

 

They'll point out the K-Rods of the world who got 7 million and 10 million their first 2 times in arbitration. They'll point out Papelbon - who wasn't the 2nd fastest to 100 - earned 6.5 million or whatever this season and is probably on pace for 10 million this year in arb. They'll point out Jose valverde and his 8 million or whatever.

 

Point being - Jenks track record is going to get him those numbers. He'll get 8 mil easy in my honest opinion and I wouldnt be shocked if he gets 9 or 10. The only way I see him not getting it is if he hears these rumbles of being dealt and agrees to take a lesser contract to remain and avoid arbitration.

 

As his agent - do you do this? Especially if you have one of the better cases to win in this situation? Does Bobby Jenks do that?

 

I don't know how it will all unfold because of how the economy is - but based on recent history with a closer of his caliber. To pay him 5.6 or 6 million is going to be a slap in the face and I can't see it unfolding that way.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Pumpkin Escobar

[GreatScott82]

K...I get we have a weak economy and that arbitration cases havent seen this kind of climate before. However, Jenks made 5.6 million this year. Which is what we agreed on with him. Usually implying we met half way on an offer and lots of times more than half way to avoid arbitration because teams really do like to avoid going to a hearing and bashing their all-star player just to save a couple bucks.

 

Now, we as Sox fans, don't see Jenks as the greatest closer in baseball or baseball history. But when he steps in front of an independent arbitrator, who is paid to go on facts, - not opinions, or causes for concern with his stuff, or whatever - we are going to lose.

 

The reason we will lose is Jenks has been near record setting for us. He is near the top of several statistical categories for closers and he is the 2nd fastest all-time to 100 or 150 saves. Whatever the thing is - behind Sasaki.

 

He already made basically 6 million. It's rare you see a guy in arbitration not earn raises. Rare to the point that they usually have to totally regress or get hurt or whatever. They also will compare him to other closers around the league - some of which most recently just got nice paydays in a bad economy.

 

They'll point out the K-Rods of the world who got 7 million and 10 million their first 2 times in arbitration. They'll point out Papelbon - who wasn't the 2nd fastest to 100 - earned 6.5 million or whatever this season and is probably on pace for 10 million this year in arb. They'll point out Jose valverde and his 8 million or whatever.

 

Point being - Jenks track record is going to get him those numbers. He'll get 8 mil easy in my honest opinion and I wouldnt be shocked if he gets 9 or 10. The only way I see him not getting it is if he hears these rumbles of being dealt and agrees to take a lesser contract to remain and avoid arbitration.

 

As his agent - do you do this? Especially if you have one of the better cases to win in this situation? Does Bobby Jenks do that?

 

I don't know how it will all unfold because of how the economy is - but based on recent history with a closer of his caliber. To pay him 5.6 or 6 million is going to be a slap in the face and I can't see it unfolding that way.

Good Post. Another thing we need to take into consideration is the Arbitration eligibal players in relation to free agents. The Free Agent class of 2009 recieved a significant pay cut due to the uncertainty of the economy. How will the Arbitration hearings be effected? So its safe to say Bobby Jenks will recieve from 6-8 million next season.

[WCSox]

I doubt Jenks arbitration value is over 6-6.5 million. You are probably right about Linebrink. But if there was one guy that would hold trade value this winter, it will be Bobby Jenks.

 

Fair enough. But if you deal him, you'd better get somebody who can close out games reliably. I hear a lot of "trade him, trade him!" but don't hear any viable alternatives. Outside of Thornton (who should stay in his setup role), I don't see anybody in the organization capable of shutting the door.

 

[longshot7]

What no one has addressed is if we lose Thome, we will no longer have a power LH bat. Would it be better to resign him for less or trade for someone like Adam Dunn?

[Pumpkin Escobar]

Good Post. Another thing we need to take into consideration is the Arbitration eligibal players in relation to free agents. The Free Agent class of 2009 recieved a significant pay cut due to the uncertainty of the economy. How will the Arbitration hearings be effected? So its safe to say Bobby Jenks will recieve from 6-8 million next season.

 

Thats kind of what I am wondering. I wouldn't assume they would take the economy into consideration since some of those big contract players still got their big paydays. They can essentially write it off as players taking contracts below league value for their production.

 

I went through and looked and Lidge was a guy who received a minimal raise. So it is possible I guess. Then again - Lidge spent a couple years being a setup man down there so he doesnt have the huge track record that I keep emphasizing with Jenks.

 

I don't think we'd win in a case against him. And I feel as though our case against him really will rely on the economy, his declining abilities and his less than stellar performance this year. Their case will put him as a top 5 or even top 10, elite closer and those guys are all earning 11-15 million (Rivera, Nathan, Krod and Lidge - who both got their contracts this past offseason in a bad climate, then Papelbon - who is the only one not but don't be surprised if he is after arbitration or if the Saux buy him out early.)

 

From there you have the Corderos at 12 mil. Guys like Ryan and Wagner who had big contracts not closing. Valverde is makin 8+ mil. Lots of guys like Soria and Broxton who are behind Jenks in Arb.

 

If they arent factoring in the economy - Jenks is getting a hefty raise. Tough to see him getting the Lidge or Fuentes treatment.

 

Doesn't bode too well for us without him agreeing to less. At least in my opinion but I'm not an arbitrator - I did stay at a Holiday Inn express though last night.

[Voros]

What no one has addressed is if we lose Thome, we will no longer have a power LH bat. Would it be better to resign him for less or trade for someone like Adam Dunn?

In my example Ankiel would provide that and Johnson's a lefty too. I'm not sure you necessarily need a lefty power bat. A good lefty bat maybe (that's Johnson). The problem with Ankiel is Boras, but that's a different situation entirely than having to negotiate with him over Holliday.

[Pumpkin Escobar]

What no one has addressed is if we lose Thome, we will no longer have a power LH bat. Would it be better to resign him for less or trade for someone like Adam Dunn?

 

Bacon can probably hit lefty.

[Princess Dye]

Probably Catch All material, but we have 8 good OBPs and then the 9th player is Quentin.

[BigSqwert]

Probably Catch All material, but we have 8 good OBPs and then the 9th player is Quentin.

Why don't we have a Sox catch all anymore?