Hardball Times

[Kyyle23]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...eadline-trades/

Ladies and gentlemen, behold possibly the worst deadline deal in recent memory.

 

Jake Peavy may or may not pitch again this year. Over the last year and a half, he's been on the shelf for roughly one-third of the time. And, he's locked into a deal that pays him more than he would receive on the open market today.

 

Now, the current projection I have for Peavy may well be a bit harsh; when healthy, he's one of the top five to eight starters in the game, and that projection would imply he's somewhere around the 25th. But I don't feel comfortable just completely ignoring the injury history, especially since they included elbow issues last year.

 

Now, you know what? This is going to be a silent killer; like the Carlos Lee contract. What I mean is, nobody really pays attention to how bad of a contract Carlos Lee has because he's meeting expectations with the bat, and Minute Maid Park makes it look even better, so no perception exists that Houston didn't get the player they signed. If you were a .300 hitter, then signed a $15 million contract, and continued to hit .300, nobody calls you overpaid, even if you were only worth $12 million a year to begin with.

 

The worst aspects of that contract (the $4 million or so a year he's overpaid along with the length of the contract the late years) are invisible; when you're watching Lee put up a .900 OPS, it doesn't immediately strike you that his overpriced contract comes at the expense of other areas of the roster, or that he's going to be a huge drag on the organization pretty soon.

 

I imagine it will be the same with Peavy. Regardless of what happens for the rest of 2009, 12 months from now, all people will really think about is that Jake Peavy is one of the top pitchers in the game, and Kenny Williams went and got him. The fact that controlling fourth starters and middle relief pitchers like Richard and Russell through arbitration (instead of buying them on the open market) is a tremendous asset for an organization is just not what's on the mind of a ChiSox fan while he's watching Jake Peavy shut out the Tigers next July.

 

The fact that what you're paying Peavy could have bought you much more value on the open market will be forgotten by then. Odds are Poreda is not going to be leading a rotation into a World Series in the next couple years. Carter may not have a year of service time before Peavy's contract is up. So, despite their value (both present in terms of trading capital, and future in terms of on-field), nobody is going to say "Oh ####, Kenny Williams blew it" anytime soon, or likely ever.

 

So, unless Peavy continues to blow himself up with injuries, Kenny Williams is going to get praised for this move, whether in October, next July, 2011, or all of the above. But the people doing the praising will not be taking an adequate measure of the pros and cons of the choice he made at the time, which was abominable.

 

If you saw a guy leaving a poker table with $50,000, you'd think he played like a master. But you weren't there to see that he sat down with $500,000. Kenny Williams is that guy.

 

 

I guess this guy thinks Kenny is The Terrible Gambler, instead of just The Gambler

[lostfan]

Yawn

[soxfan3530]

dumb article. of course the trade has some risks. doesn't every trade have some risks involved?

[bighurt574]

So, to summarize, even though the trade will likely look good over the next few years, it's really bad? I don't get it.

[Flash Tizzle]

And it's not even as if he criticized the deal because Peavy may be ineffective for us. That's why he threw in the Carlos Lee comparison. Peavy may be a sub 3.50 ERA pitcher in the American League, lead us to a World Series, but I'm sure his value wouldn't be worthy of the 16/17 million he's due in '10 and '11.

 

The author believes the production of Carter/Russell/Poreda/Richard, for the respective salaries, will exceed that of Jake Peavy. I suppose it's possible, considering you have four players involved on their end, but how the hell can anyone assemble a championship caliber ballclub unless these types of risks are taken? Anyways, when you add in Beckham, Getz, Ramirez, and possibly Flowers and Hudson, there's certaintly enough to offset Peavy's salary.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Flash Tizzle

[hogan873]

Yeah, I don't get it either. Essentially he said that the trade will help the Sox, and is an okay trade for the Padres, but it still is a bad trade. Let me read it again...yeah, I still don't get it.

[False Alarm]

i'm also amused by the idea that peavy is "locked into a deal that pays him more than he would receive on the open market today" and "what [we're] paying Peavy could have bought [us] much more value on the open market." what, would peavy get gil meche money if he were a free agent?

[hogan873]

And it's not even as if he criticized the deal because Peavy may be ineffective for us. That's why he threw in the Carlos Lee comparison. Peavy may be a sub 3.50 ERA pitcher in the American League, lead us to a World Series, but I'm sure his value wouldn't be worthy of the 16/17 million he's due in '10 and '11.

 

The author believes the production of Carter/Russell/Poreda/Richard, for the respective salaries, will exceed that of Jake Peavy. I suppose it's possible, considering you have four players involved on their end, but how the hell can anyone assemble a championship caliber ballclub unless these types of risks are taken? Anyways, when you add in Beckham, Getz, Ramirez, and possibly Flowers and Hudson, there's certaintly enough to offset Peavy's salary.

 

Right. Sure KW gave up some talent, but the Sox still have Beckham, Getz, Flowers, Hudson, and Ramirez. Oh, and now they have a rotation of Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, and Peavy for at least the next two years.

[hogan873]

i'm also amused by the idea that peavy is "locked into a deal that pays him more than he would receive on the open market today" and "what [we're] paying Peavy could have bought [us] much more value on the open market." what, would peavy get gil meche money if he were a free agent?

 

Peavy would command a big contract on the open market, and would most likely look for a 4+ year deal. Something the Sox do not do.

[WCSox]

What I mean is, nobody really pays attention to how bad of a contract Carlos Lee has because he's meeting expectations with the bat, and Minute Maid Park makes it look even better, so no perception exists that Houston didn't get the player they signed. If you were a .300 hitter, then signed a $15 million contract, and continued to hit .300, nobody calls you overpaid, even if you were only worth $12 million a year to begin with.

 

The worst aspects of that contract (the $4 million or so a year he's overpaid along with the length of the contract the late years) are invisible; when you're watching Lee put up a .900 OPS, it doesn't immediately strike you that his overpriced contract comes at the expense of other areas of the roster, or that he's going to be a huge drag on the organization pretty soon.

 

Does this genius even know how much money is coming off the Sox's payroll sheet over the next year and a half (Contreras, Dotel, Thome and/or Dye, A.J., Konerko possibly)? Does he know how much came off last winter from dumping Vazquez and Swisher? Or Linebrink, Jenks, and Buehrle being FAs after 2011? The Sox will have quite a bit of payroll flexibility over the next few years.

 

I imagine it will be the same with Peavy. Regardless of what happens for the rest of 2009, 12 months from now, all people will really think about is that Jake Peavy is one of the top pitchers in the game, and Kenny Williams went and got him. The fact that controlling fourth starters and middle relief pitchers like Richard and Russell through arbitration (instead of buying them on the open market) is a tremendous asset for an organization is just not what's on the mind of a ChiSox fan while he's watching Jake Peavy shut out the Tigers next July.

 

If that's what actually happens 12 months from now, then Mission Accomplished, Kenny Williams.

 

Edited August 3, 2009 by WCSox

[GoSox05]

To judge any trade four days after is dumb. Its like people who grade the NFL draft the next week.

 

What if Peavy comes back and goes 7-1 and we go on to win a world series on the back of his pitching. Than will it be the worst deal ever.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Basically, he's arguing that we'll be screwed by having less salary flexibility over the next few years. Fine, I can accept that point, but the counter-point is our list of cheap, pre-arb and arb guys for the length of his contract: D1, D2, Floyd, Flowers, Becks, TCQ, Viciedo, Getz, Ramirez, Hudson, hopefully something good comes of Fields, and then the variety of other guys like Gartrell, Morel who could step up and take a spot too.

 

If our system was where it was early in 2007, then he'd be right. We'd be looking at a Cubs-like future; a couple big contracts taking up a lot of room, a lot of holes in our lineup, and no money to spend to fix them. We're not.

[bschmaranz]

I dunno if any of you guys frequent RealGM, but this is similarly ridiculous (hehe) to the Bulls fans over there b****ing about Reinsdorf paying Peavy and not Ben Gordon.

[Princess Dye]

Richard's ceiling appears to be that of solid #3 starter

 

Poreda, now that he's away from the team that drafted him, is going to start being looked at as bullpen-type because of his makeup

 

 

 

Obviously we cant judge the deal yet, but the guys we sent are replaceable. Peavy does some things that are very hard to find, and JR gets to take on that type of starter with his preferred method -- 4 year contract or less.

 

 

 

 

 

His point about the big contract is a good one, but we're the kind of team that has to overpay anyway. I would rather have this on the books than have another one of those offseasons where FAs turn us down and we have to settle for Nick Swisher.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Princess Dye

[Princess Dye]

I dunno if any of you guys frequent RealGM, but this is similarly ridiculous (hehe) to the Bulls fans over there b****ing about Reinsdorf paying Peavy and not Ben Gordon.

 

It's a slow offseason and I knew it was a matter of time til that board would jump at something like this

Edited August 3, 2009 by Princess Dye

[RME JICO]

He obviously doesn't know about Kalapse's Payroll resource. We have a bunch of starters playing under below market prices or situations for almost the same length as Peavy's contract:

 

Floyd, Danks, Getz, Ramirez, Beckham, Quentin, Pods, and Thornton are all in that category, and the Sox have a ton of money coming off the books this winter (Thome, Dotel, Contreras).

 

Also, Peavy will only make $3 million more than Buehrle for 2010 and 2011 combined. So if Peavy's contract is so bad, then Buehrle's can't be much better.

 

I also love his rationale. The whole wins vs salary argument is weak. Yeah, on a win vs win scenario, Richard will cost less than Peavy. However, if Peavy is winning 5-6 games more a year than Richard, that is the difference between the playoffs and golfing in October. You can't put a price on that.

[sircaffey]

Peavy is a player who's bottom line value is not just in his performance on the field. There are only a certain number of players who have this effect. This is something these stat "experts" won't take into account.

[Princess Dye]

Peavy is a player who's bottom line value is not just in his performance on the field. There are only a certain number of players who have this effect. This is something these stat "experts" won't take into account.

 

Not to mention the attendance jump that will make JR all the more willing to spend the money that is coming off the books this offseason

[klaus kinski]

If Boston or NY made this it would be the trade of the century

[WCSox]

His point about the big contract is a good one, but we're the kind of team that has to overpay anyway. I would rather have this on the books than have another one of those offseasons where FAs turn us down and we have to settle for Nick Swisher.

 

If you're going to over-pay for a player, a Cy Young Award-winning starting pitcher in his prime is the perfect candidate.

 

A guy like Peavy is also going to help you a hell of a lot more than other players with bad contracts (Hunter, Vernon Wells, etc.).

 

[JPN366]

I hated seeing Poreda and Russell traded, but the only thing that concerned me about the trade was what if the White Sox fall out of contention in 2010 or 2011? Do they deal Peavy? On the other hand, if he rehabs with the Barons, my wife knows the wife of his hunting buddy. I may be able to have a meet and greet with him.

[Buehrle>Wood]

I hated seeing Poreda and Russell traded, but the only thing that concerned me about the trade was what if the White Sox fall out of contention in 2010 or 2011? Do they deal Peavy? On the other hand, if he rehabs with the Barons, my wife knows the wife of his hunting buddy. I may be able to have a meet and greet with him.

 

If we were to deal Peavy for whatever reason, we could probably very easily get a better package than what we gave up.

[NorthSideSox72]

I hated seeing Poreda and Russell traded, but the only thing that concerned me about the trade was what if the White Sox fall out of contention in 2010 or 2011? Do they deal Peavy? On the other hand, if he rehabs with the Barons, my wife knows the wife of his hunting buddy. I may be able to have a meet and greet with him.

Russell was the least worrying part of the trade, IMO. He's been very inconsistent, and I am not sure he was going to stay stable for long with his delivery(ies).

 

[dasox24]

I dunno if any of you guys frequent RealGM, but this is similarly ridiculous (hehe) to the Bulls fans over there b****ing about Reinsdorf paying Peavy and not Ben Gordon.

What the f*** don't some Bulls fans understand about a salary cap? You can pay guys like that in baseball b/c there's no limit to spending (except for what the owner wants to spend). If the Bulls had resigned BG and not traded anyone, they'd be pretty constrained to make any future moves for the next couple of years. Not to hijack the thread, but I hate Bulls fans that use that argument.

 

Anyway, the article is dumb. And you all have pretty much covered the reasons why.

Edited August 3, 2009 by dasox24

[Voros]

To judge any trade four days after is dumb.

Well, yes and no. Technically, you judge a trade based on all of the information that potentially can be known when the trade was made. To say otherwise, is like saying hitting on 18 in blackjack is a good move if a '3' comes up. It was still a bad move, it just happened to work out anyway.

 

On the other hand, which actor in the trade had the most information and used it the best is difficult to know immediately, and future events may help untangle that. So it's not quite as simple as the blackjack example above.

 

Going from a pitcher's park in the NL to a hitter's park in the AL is unlikely to help Peavy's numbers any, so I think that's a legitimate concern. His injury issues are probably a concern, but could be overblown a bit since only shoulder injuries are massive red flags.

 

I'm not a real big fan of the trade, but pitching prospects are notoriously unreliable so I wouldn't slag it too badly. A healthy Peavy sure isn't going to hurt the rotation any.