Hardball Times

[35thstreetswarm]

So, in sum:

 

"The Jake Peavy trade was not only bad, but one of the worst in the collective memory of the baseball world. Of course, the baseball world will not actually 'REMEMBER' it as a bad trade, since Jake Peavy will likely play very well. And White Sox fans will be very 'happy' with the trade for the duration of Peavy's contract. And the media will also heed the siren song of Peavy's excellent play, and will pronounce this a 'good deal.' This naive misconception will only be fueled by the fact that the players for whom Peavy was traded will, in common parlance, 'suck' for their new teams. But for complex reasons obvious to noone but me, the trade will continue to go down as a failure of epic proportions, the quaint exigencies of Peavy's real-world 'pitching' situation notwithstanding. Just remember, in a few years you will likely look back at this article and think 'Wow, the Peavy trade worked out great, this guy was an idiot.' At that moment, know that I will be sitting back in my parlor watching you fall into the web I have woven for you and the rest of the uninformed, your scorn only further proving my initial thesis. Checkmate, and you're welcome. P.S. - I am currently looking for a job."

[caulfield12]

I do think the point that Richard might have a very good NL career (like Kip Wells did for awhile, and Josh Fogg, too) while the White Sox are continuing to struggle to man the 5th spot (of course, that's only WITHOUT a Peavy return in 2009) can later be used against KW.

 

But, once again, that's only if Peavy blows out his elbow or something. And the insurance/contract we picked up from the Padres mitigates the risk factor, just like we got back about $5-6 million instead of eating David Wells' 2001 contract completely.

 

Giving up RUSSELL was nothing at all...just a name that makes the trade look bigger, and possibly sad to those wallowing in 06/07 top prospect lists for the White Sox and believing he was actually a legit, TOP 10 prospect with most other organizations. Basically a one-pitch pitcher with so-so mechanics and much less valuable as a reliever than limited starter (like Poreda, except RHed).

 

But if two of those three pitchers (think of Carter like a lesser version of Faustino DeLosSantos) excel, KW will never hear the end of it....UNLESS, of course, we win the World Series.

 

In which case KW is back to being a genius and maybe having his own "revenge" book to answer Moneyball with Denzel as KW. LOL.

 

 

[WCSox]

So, in sum:

 

"The Jake Peavy trade was not only bad, but one of the worst in the collective memory of the baseball world. Of course, the baseball world will not actually 'REMEMBER' it as a bad trade, since Jake Peavy will likely play very well. And White Sox fans will be very 'happy' with the trade for the duration of Peavy's contract. And the media will also heed the siren song of Peavy's excellent play, and will pronounce this a 'good deal.' This naive misconception will only be fueled by the fact that the players for whom Peavy was traded will, in common parlance, 'suck' for their new teams. But for complex reasons obvious to noone but me, the trade will continue to go down as a failure of epic proportions, the quaint exigencies of Peavy's real-world 'pitching' situation notwithstanding. Just remember, in a few years you will likely look back at this article and think 'Wow, the Peavy trade worked out great, this guy was an idiot.' At that moment, know that I will be sitting back in my parlor watching you fall into the web I have woven for you and the rest of the uninformed, your scorn only further proving my initial thesis. Checkmate, and you're welcome. P.S. - I am currently looking for a job."

 

 

Awesome first post. Welcome to Soxtalk.

 

[BigSqwert]

 

Awesome first post. Welcome to Soxtalk.

Indeed and welcome 35th street

[iamshack]

They are using statistical analysis to determine how much a player is worth. Carlos Lee makes $18.5 mill for the next 3 years following this one, in which he is also making $18.5 mill. I imagine they believe his offense is worth $15 mill a year due to the statistics he puts up, and that his numbers are inflated due to the ballpark he plays in, and with that extra $3-3.5 mill or so, they could get a very solid reliever on the free agent market, which will help win them more games if Lee is being paid a relatively good salary. This same argument goes for Peavy and the White Sox; both players could do well, but they won't live up to the stastical performances that their contract would demand. It's a pretty dumb line of thinking and goes against basic economic principles.

 

As has been mentioned, there are times when this article is correct, such as when a team is much older, is tied down to bad contracts for a while, and has absolutely no minor league system. The Sox are in a transitional period, but are not in any 3 of those phases in particular.

 

The problem I see with the article, and Voros mentions this as well, is that the author assumes pitchers such as Richard and Poreda and Russell and Carter cannot be replaced by other low-priced but marginally effective guys like them. As if, when we traded them, we didn't have other candidates in the farm system to step up and duplicate their efforts. Especially the fact that he brought up Russell and Carter, considering how little effect they have had, if any, on the big league club. These guys will be replaced by guys like Hudson, Nunez, Torres, and others, who will have EXACTLY the same value to the big league club as the 4 pitchers we traded have had.

 

Certainly had we traded 17 pitchers of the ilk of Richard and Poreda, this could become a problem. But we traded just a few. And as others have stated, we have several other position players contributing at a very cost-effective level, as well as Danks and Floyd, who are pitching to a level far higher than what they are currently paid.

 

I understand what he is trying to say here, but the argument doesn't hold water, considering he cannot actually point to production lost elsewhere due to the above-market salary Peavy is and will be receiving.

[35thstreetswarm]

Indeed and welcome 35th street

 

Thanks. Feels good to finally emerge from the lurker cave...

[BigSqwert]

Thanks. Feels good to finally emerge from the lurker cave...

I remember hanging out in there. They use the same urinal troughs that are installed at Wrigley.

[WCSox]

The author also seems to believe that the combined efforts of Richard, Poreda, Russell, and Carter will have a similar positive impact as those of Peavy. If Peavy pitches the way that the author believes he will in the coming years, he's flat-out wrong. A #3 (at best), a left-handed bullpen arm, and two more good-but-not-great minor league prospects have about a snowball's chance in hell of matching a dominant Peavy's impact, especially in the playoffs.

Edited August 3, 2009 by WCSox

[Soxbadger]

I wish that guy was a real GM.

 

We could trade him buckets full of crap for elite players and hed think he was ripping us off because elite players cost more.

 

What a great article.

[caulfield12]

100% false.

 

 

Were you around any White Sox message board from 2002-2004???

 

Everyone was obsessed with bringing up that Todd Ritchie for Wells/Fogg/Lowe deal and shoving it down KW's throat.

 

It easily dwarfed Wise and Anderson as topics/issues of discussion.

[Soxbadger]

Everyone was obsessed with bringing up that Todd Ritchie for Wells/Fogg/Lowe deal and shoving it down KW's throat.

 

I think the problem is that Jake Peavy is not Todd Ritchie.

 

Where as Wells/Fogg/Lowe are comparable to the package that was given up for Peavy.

 

So if back then the Sox had traded those 3 players for a former Cy Young winner, I doubt you see anyone complaining.

 

The problem was that some people didnt like Ritchie from the start (turns out they were right).

[CanOfCorn]

I think the problem is that Jake Peavy is not Todd Ritchie.

 

Where as Wells/Fogg/Lowe are comparable to the package that was given up for Peavy.

 

So if back then the Sox had traded those 3 players for a former Cy Young winner, I doubt you see anyone complaining.

 

The problem was that some people didnt like Ritchie from the start (turns out they were right).

 

And the Buehrle/Garland/Wright/Glover rotation that Todd Ritchie was inserted into isn't QUITE at the same level as Buehrle/Danks/Floyd. Wells/Fogg/Lowe are comparable to the package offered...but like Soxbadger said...Peavy is just a BIT better (/green) than Todd Ritchie.

[caulfield12]

Obviously KW bought himself some leeway with 2005, lol.

 

However, the argument is that the Padres would have given up Peavy for maybe even Richard and Russell or Poreda and Russell...as Towers was under orders from the ownership group to clear the contract, plus Peavy was hurt and there were no other suitors, so the argument goes why would KW offer the SAME package when he could have lowered it (and maybe it was changed from Hudson to A. Carter instead) and still made Towers happy just to get out from under the financial burden for the Moores' divorce situation.

 

I guess we'll never know...and I'm not worried about Poreda or Russell ever becoming anything, but Richard and Carter definitely might. Still, you have to give up talent to get a Cy Young winner (albeit injured) in his prime.

[3 BeWareTheNewSox 5]

Also, let's not forget the fact that we have guys like Beckham who are well under "fair market value" , so even by his standards this is a damn good deal

[iamshack]

No it isn't. The argument has never been that, however I'm not surprised you have spun it that way.

 

Peavy isn't a free agent after the year. Isn't after next year either. Jake will be back by Septemeber, it could have been either with the Sox or the Padres. If he comes back strong and healthy, finishies out 2009 strong, his value is still incredibly high on the open market.

 

Your entire argument is based off an assumintion that hasn't even been mentioned any where else.

 

I would not say his value will be "incredibly high." Certainly if he regains form, his value will recover a bit, but his salary is such that many teams will be unable to take it on, leaving some 4-6 teams interested. Even then, his value is still limited due to some injury concerns and the last few years of that contract.

 

I'm not claiming that he won't have some decent value, but I think the fact that Kenny was the only GM to call Kevin Towers on him, in a market where Halladay and Cliff Lee were highly sought-after illustrates there were more concerns out there than simply the fact that he would be sidelined for another month...

[RockRaines]

Peavy would get a Sabathia/Zito contract if on the free market, therefor he is signed below market value for us. Nice try and making a controversial article though.

[caulfield12]

Inside the Padres' financially strapped offices at Petco Park, there was a huge sigh of relief. General manager Kevin Towers had a mandate -- since last November -- to get Peavy off the Padres' books. Still, some people close to that organization believe Williams didn't need to part with so much talent to get Peavy at this point.

 

''The financial relief alone might have been enough to get it done,'' a Padres insider said. ''Maybe you dress it up with some bodies. But [the Sox] had a lot more leverage. [The Padres] had no other options.''

 

DeLuca, Sun-Times Sports

[iamshack]

Inside the Padres' financially strapped offices at Petco Park, there was a huge sigh of relief. General manager Kevin Towers had a mandate -- since last November -- to get Peavy off the Padres' books. Still, some people close to that organization believe Williams didn't need to part with so much talent to get Peavy at this point.

 

''The financial relief alone might have been enough to get it done,'' a Padres insider said. ''Maybe you dress it up with some bodies. But [the Sox] had a lot more leverage. [The Padres] had no other options.''

 

DeLuca, Sun-Times Sports

 

Balta posted this earlier. I still think it was a good-faith move by Kenny to both Towers and Jake. It's always a good idea to be fair, as you never know when Kenny might need something....dare I say when we are in need of someone to replace Paulie and Adrian Gonzalez is ready to be traded?

[Princess Dye]

If Padres were being ordered to get rid of Peavy, how come we werent hearing about other bidders leading up?

 

The injury and contract...yea... but was there seriously zero interest coming from anywhere?

[VAfan]

The real question about Peavy is this: Can he be the #1 guy in a Sox postseason rotation?

 

That's why KW traded for him, in my estimation. He more or less said as much in one post-Peavy interview I heard, talking about how the Sox as they were pre-Peavy just didn't quite match up with NYY or Boston or the Angels.

 

I think he sees Peavy as the #1 guy, like Contreras was in 2005. It takes the heat off Mark Buehrle. It also allows Floyd and Danks to match up against starters they will more likely best. That was the formula in 2005. Once Contreras emerged in the second half, the Sox had a true #1 guy, and then Buehrle, Garcia, and Garland could do their thing.

 

The only trouble is that so far, Peavy has had no postseason success as a #1 guy. Indeed, he got shelled the two times he led the Padres into the postseason, giving up 8 runs in 4.1 innings one year and 5 runs in 5.1 innings the next year, taking the loss in both games.

 

But perhaps he was tired going into those games. This year, his ankle injury and the mid-season break it gave his arm, hopefully will mean he'll be very strong down the stretch.

 

In any event, that's how I would evaluate this trade. Will Peavy get us to the postseason, and will he win once there? If he does the former but not the latter, it was a good deal. If he does the latter, the Sox will have pulled off a great move.

[Balta1701]

However, the argument is that the Padres would have given up Peavy for maybe even Richard and Russell or Poreda and Russell...as Towers was under orders from the ownership group to clear the contract, plus Peavy was hurt and there were no other suitors, so the argument goes why would KW offer the SAME package when he could have lowered it (and maybe it was changed from Hudson to A. Carter instead) and still made Towers happy just to get out from under the financial burden for the Moores' divorce situation.

Whatever they say...I think I'm fairly convinced that the deal that they accepted was different than the deal they offered last time.

[SockMe]

Hudson was in the deal the first time. That is all but confirmed by the Sox.

 

 

WOW really? Im glad that we got to keep Hudson, Flowers, Beckham, YEA KENNY

[Balta1701]

WOW really? Im glad that we got to keep Hudson, Flowers, Beckham, YEA KENNY

We're 80% certain the original deal was Hudson, Broadway, Richard, Poreda.

[SockMe]

We're 80% certain the original deal was Hudson, Broadway, Richard, Poreda.

 

 

I like the 2nd deal

[Balta1701]

I like the 2nd deal

Keeping Hudson, the way he's pitching, that's a score.