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Impact of Thome's avg drop?


Princess Dye

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well since 07 that is

 

 

 

 

Obviously we all like the OBP, but with his specific spot in the lineup, you need a little more handiness with the bat than he's providing.

 

 

How much has it hurt us?

 

Also who here would advocate lowering him in the lineup?

Edited by Princess Dye
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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 09:08 PM)
Who cares? We don't expect him to hit for average and if you are, then you're doing it wrong.

 

Not to mention his average was .284 in July and overall it's 8 points since last year.

 

But note in the post, I'm worried not about avg itself...but about what a declining average implies

 

Less able to wave that wand the way he used to. If you're hitting in the 3-4-5, youve still got your situations that you have to make contact in.

Edited by Princess Dye
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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Aug 5, 2009 -> 02:10 AM)
But note in the post, I'm worried not about avg itself...but about what a declining average implies

 

Less able to wave that wand the way he used to. If you're hitting in the 3-4-5, youve still got your situations that you have to make contact in.

 

...

 

But his average is up this year from last, not on a decline.

 

 

He's a 4 hitter because he's a lefty complement with lots of power and gets on base at a high rate. So who do you want there? Quentin? Another righty who has hit about .200 since coming back?

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 09:13 PM)
...

 

But his average is up this year from last, not on a decline.

 

 

Yea, thats why i said since 07 in my original post.

 

 

 

I guess I just want that lineup with a 1 through 5 that can be multifaceted with the bat.

 

I'm not saying, 'hey it's crazy having a power hitting lefty in the 3-4-5'. Just wishing that we would aim higher, perhaps in our offseasons, to get a different lefty power hitter.

 

 

 

If Alexei keeps hitting the way he's going, I'm going to start wanting Pods/Alexei/Becks/Dye/Konerko. Even though it flies in the face of conventions, it reminds me of those great teams that keep punishing you and bringing your pitch count up in long five-batter sequences.

 

There's also the option of moving AJ to 5, but with our park it's barely an option

Edited by Princess Dye
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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 07:15 PM)
To illustrate my overall point further, K rate is on the rise for him this year.

Here is Jim Thome's K/plate appearances since 1999, excluding 2005 when he was hurt.

 

1999 0.272

2000 0.250

2001 0.287

2002 0.227

2003 0.261

2004 0.233

2006 0.241

2007 0.250

2008 0.244

2009 0.268

 

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 09:21 PM)
Yet you want Thome out of there. I'm sorry, but I am completely lost at this thread.

 

I definitely tripped over myself on that line.

 

 

 

 

My point should have been the following, said more simply: I dont want my cleanup hitter's best attribute to be drawing walks.

 

 

 

 

SLG is on the decline as well, each year he's been here, again with the biggest drop off being post 07.

Edited by Princess Dye
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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 07:26 PM)
SLG is on the decline as well, each year he's been here, again with the biggest drop off being post 07.

Saying that his slugging is declining from the ridiculous HOF level he was at beforehand isn't an argument for moving him in the lineup. You need to tell me how to replace the nearly .500 slugging from the LH side in the middle of the lineup.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 09:31 PM)
Saying that his slugging is declining from the ridiculous HOF level he was at beforehand isn't an argument for moving him in the lineup. You need to tell me how to replace the nearly .500 slugging from the LH side in the middle of the lineup.

Dwayne Wise.

 

Oh my bad, I thought you meant .500 OPS.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 09:31 PM)
Saying that his slugging is declining from the ridiculous HOF level he was at beforehand isn't an argument for moving him in the lineup. You need to tell me how to replace the nearly .500 slugging from the LH side in the middle of the lineup.

 

Were we to move Beckham into the 3 slot, I think that middle of the lineup gets a guy who can hit lefties and righties very well.

 

Currently Beckham is hitting for righties for an average higher than Thome is. The walks and SLG are not there yet, but few amongst us doubt we're too far away from that point.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 09:31 PM)
Saying that his slugging is declining from the ridiculous HOF level he was at beforehand isn't an argument for moving him in the lineup. You need to tell me how to replace the nearly .500 slugging from the LH side in the middle of the lineup.

 

but .494 slugging at the cleanup spot would not cut it on those teams I think are a cut above, like Boston w/ Youklis, LAA w/ Guerrero (normal Vlad that is)

 

or Tampa etc

 

 

I want to be like those teams.

Edited by Princess Dye
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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 10:38 PM)
but .494 slugging at the cleanup spot would not cut it on those teams I think are a cut above, like Boston w/ Youklis, LAA w/ Guerrero (normal Vlad that is)

 

or Tampa etc

 

 

I want to be like those teams.

???

 

A-Rod is slugging .515 for the Yankees, is that not good enough or something? Where do you suggest getting a Hall of Famer from?

Edited by lostfan
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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 07:38 PM)
but .494 slugging at the cleanup spot would not cut it on those teams I think are a cut above, like Boston w/ Youklis, LAA w/ Guerrero (normal Vlad that is)

 

or Tampa etc

 

 

I want to be like those teams.

Slugging percentage out of the cleanup spot this year for every team in MLB:

 

1 Minnesota 0.607

2 Milwaukee 0.586

3 Chicago Cubs 0.568

4 Washington 0.567

5 Texas 0.562

6 Detroit 0.531

7 Boston 0.524

8 Chicago Sox 0.517

9 San Diego 0.514

10 Philadelphia 0.512

11 Houston 0.495

12 Atlanta 0.493

13 St. Louis 0.489

14 Tampa Bay 0.488

15 NY Yankees 0.486

16 LA Angels 0.483

17 Arizona 0.478

18 NY Mets 0.463

19 Colorado 0.458

20 Cincinnati 0.444

21 Cleveland 0.442

22 Toronto 0.44

23 Oakland 0.438

24 Pittsburgh 0.437

25 San Francisco 0.437

26 Florida 0.431

27 Baltimore 0.394

28 Seattle 0.389

29 LA Dodgers 0.381

30 Kansas City 0.293

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 09:43 PM)
Slugging percentage out of the cleanup spot this year for every team in MLB:

 

1 Minnesota 0.607

2 Milwaukee 0.586

3 Chicago Cubs 0.568

4 Washington 0.567

5 Texas 0.562

6 Detroit 0.531

7 Boston 0.524

8 Chicago Sox 0.517

9 San Diego 0.514

10 Philadelphia 0.512

11 Houston 0.495

12 Atlanta 0.493

13 St. Louis 0.489

14 Tampa Bay 0.488

15 NY Yankees 0.486

16 LA Angels 0.483

17 Arizona 0.478

18 NY Mets 0.463

19 Colorado 0.458

20 Cincinnati 0.444

21 Cleveland 0.442

22 Toronto 0.44

23 Oakland 0.438

24 Pittsburgh 0.437

25 San Francisco 0.437

26 Florida 0.431

27 Baltimore 0.394

28 Seattle 0.389

29 LA Dodgers 0.381

30 Kansas City 0.293

 

Which is why some of those teams have moved in some of the above guys I mentioned into that slot. Such as Youk, Zobrist.

 

They see the importance of the spot and make the necessary adjustments. I hope we do the same, which is my entire point.

 

 

We'll see if the K-rate and SLG we get out of the cleanup spot is enough for this year. Would love to be proven wrong.

Edited by Princess Dye
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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 09:26 PM)
I definitely tripped over myself on that line.

 

 

 

 

My point should have been the following, said more simply: I dont want my cleanup hitter's best attribute to be drawing walks.

 

 

 

 

SLG is on the decline as well, each year he's been here, again with the biggest drop off being post 07.

 

Jim Thome's greatest attribute is the fact that he's a power hitting left handed bat hitting cleanup in the middle of several right handers that forces the other managers hand late in games and keeps the offensive versatility throughout the beginning and middle of a game.

 

QUOTE (SockMe @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 09:28 PM)
whenever Jim comes to bat I expect a HR or Strike out

 

or a walk, or extra base hit in general, or ground ball to the right side, but I actually do generally agree that Thome is a pretty predictable hitter. That's perfectly fine by me when he puts up the numbers he does.

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An additional part of my fears is that a .250 hitter, his obp notwithstanding, likely has trouble hitting great pitching.

 

 

In the playoffs, you face great pitching nonstop, and your 4-hitter is getting a lot of at-bats.

 

 

Not saying he's only out there hitting bad pitching, but for a nice tiny sample size...in last year's playoffs: .176 OBP

 

 

 

 

A-Rod is slugging .515 for the Yankees, is that not good enough or something? Where do you suggest getting a Hall of Famer from?
If we had the OBPs that lineup has up and down, I would gladly make an exception to my vision here. But with our payroll limitations we depend on a cleanup hitter for a lot, year in year out.

 

But besides that ARod's just better

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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Aug 4, 2009 -> 08:15 PM)
An additional part of my fears is that a .250 hitter, his obp notwithstanding, likely has trouble hitting great pitching.

Here's the guys Thome has put up the best OPS against this year, minimum 3 PA's.

 

Randy Wells 5

Jeremy Bonderman 3.5

Jeremy Guthrie 1.917

Edwin Jackson 1.914

Jeremy Sowers 1.694

Kevin Millwood 1.667

Jered Weaver 1.667

Jason Berken 1.666

Jesse Carlson 1.666

C.C. Sabathia 1.666

Scott Baker 1.5

Eddie Bonine 1.4

David Huff 1.167

Jim Johnson 1.167

Francisco Liriano 1.167

Brad Bergesen 1.1

Roy Halladay 1.1

Nick Blackburn 1.089

Justin Verlander 1.042

Bruce Chen 1

 

 

Meanwhile, here's the loewr end

A.J. Burnett 0

R.A. Dickey 0

Adam Eaton 0

Matt Harrison 0

Jeff Karstens 0

Hiroki Kuroda 0

Andy Pettitte 0

Rick Porcello 0

Joakim Soria 0

 

 

It seems like there's very little correlation between the guy being a "Good pitcher" and Jims OPS against him this season.

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