The importance of batting order (Getz/Beckham/Alexei/GQCQ)

[caulfield12]

http://fantasyscope.wordpress.com/2007/08/...-batting-order/

 

http://fantasyscope.wordpress.com/2008/01/...ermetric-style/

 

 

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...554&Model=0

 

Best possible line-up with CQ and Rios on field at same time

 

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...554&Model=0

 

With Pods and Nix instead of Rios and Getz (of course, we know it's very dubious to extrapolate Nix's numbers over a full season if he played against all RHP)

Edited August 12, 2009 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Feel free to merge with the White Sox 2010 line-up thread, sorry, didn't see that one...

[Princess Dye]

We should keep this. This is 2009-helpful, there's little firm for 2010

[caulfield12]

I do find it interesting that Beckham is almost always hitting #1 in these simulations.

 

It makes sense, you want your best hitter getting the most AB's, or no lower than #3 in the order.

 

Getz and Pods, on very good teams, belong at the bottom of the order...and Rios belongs at #8 this year, that's pretty stout to have an 8th place hitter projecting for 90+ RBI's, a little like the 2000 offense if all the guns are blazing at once.

[MiddleCoastBias]

Wow, this info kind of throws a wrench in many people's predictions for the lineups... Raines' thread about Getz as leadoff does not sit well according to this analysis. But then again, neither does Rios at leadoff which many have mused.

 

Then again, the projected runs scored for the worst lineup is 5.159 runs per game while our lineups this season have averaged only 4.640

Edited August 12, 2009 by The Baconator

[caulfield12]

Wow, this info kind of throws a wrench in many people's predictions for the lineups... Raines' thread about Getz as leadoff does not sit well according to this analysis. But then again, neither does Rios at leadoff which many have mused.

 

Then again, the projected runs scored for the worst lineup is 5.159 runs per game while our lineups this season have averaged only 4.640

 

 

With Pods for the full season, a 875-925 OPS Carlos Quentin (he's still below 800, but barely now), Ramirez hitting like he did in 2008 and Beckham for a full season, not to mention Alex Rios playing up to his potential...this line-up could be absolutely devastating to the ALCD.

 

Even Nix has been VERY VERY potent in spot duty, with a SLG PCTG of almost 450.

 

Yes, Getz should be hitting 9th (he's our worst hitter of the 9) and Rios 8th.

[BFirebird]

Interesting that Getz is rated so lowly. I honestly thought he was a possible solution for leadoff next year, but it looks like that would not be probably the best solution.

 

For fun I ran one with the Cubs because I was interested at where Soriano would end up.

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...462&Model=0

 

Soriano should hit below Big Z...hilarious.

 

 

I also ran one for the Indians because I always wondered where Sizemore best fits in the lineup.

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...303&Model=0

 

The Indians pretty much came out like I expected except for Carroll. I would have guessed Choo would have been leadoff.

 

 

 

Good stuff Caulfield.

 

[Princess Dye]

If Rios keeps hitting doubles as he's been known to, I like him as a leadoff hitter next year. That is supposing we had no better one.

 

Beckham just has to be 2 or 3, that RBI bat is too valuable.

 

 

 

 

If Beckham is our leadoff hitter, well to quote Ozzie, "we're in trouble"

Edited August 12, 2009 by Princess Dye

[RockRaines]

And how many WS winning teaming have followed this "wizard"? Thats why people manage games and not computers.

[Ozzie Ball]

And how many WS winning teaming have followed this "wizard"? Thats why people manage games and not computers.

And how many teams have followed this formula? Just because it's unproven doesn't mean it's wrong.

[RockRaines]

And how many teams have followed this formula? Just because it's unproven doesn't mean it's wrong.

Putting Thome in the 2-hole and Alexei in the 3rd spot pretty much proves that its wrong right there. Stats are stats and are useful to a point, but they arent absolute and they dont have the ability to take all game factors into account.

[Princess Dye]

Putting Thome in the 2-hole and Alexei in the 3rd spot pretty much proves that its wrong right there. Stats are stats and are useful to a point, but they arent absolute and they dont have the ability to take all game factors into account.

 

I hate to say it, but if it shows Thome as a 2-hitter...... it may not necessarily show that the program is wrong, but more shows that we're ill-equipped as an offense.

 

Obviously Thome is not an ideal 2-hitter, but it kinda makes sense that if Beckham is being moved up...the program is telling us we really dont have another 2-hitter. Ouch.

 

 

 

For instance, put the Yanks into this program and I'm sure just about any lineup is going to be great.

Edited August 12, 2009 by Princess Dye

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I hate to say it, but if it shows Thome as a 2-hitter...... it may not necessarily show that the program is wrong, but more shows that we're ill-equipped as an offense.

 

Obviously Thome is not an ideal 2-hitter, but it kinda makes sense that if Beckham is being moved up...the program is telling us we really dont have another 2-hitter. Ouch.

 

 

 

For instance, put the Yanks into this program and I'm sure just about any lineup is going to be great.

No, it shows the program isn't worth anything, period. Why put a molasses-slow, high OBP guy in the 2-hole in front of a high-contact hitter who always hits the ball hard? That spells DP, DP, DP all game long.

 

These lineups take nothing into account beyond numbers mashing and therefore they are useless.

 

IMO, since we don't have a true lead-off hitter when Pods is out, it doesn't really matter who we use. Beckham could work but as a doubles guy we'd like to have someone on in front of him. Getz might be best equipped. Rios could get a shot, but I'd rather keep him lower as a RBI man.

 

No matter how we do these lineups, I'd like to see the speed players bunched up together and the slow guys bunched up together.

[VAfan]

The only inputs into this formula are OBP and SLG. But there's a lot more than that to how a lineup meshes. For one thing, this system completely misses speed, which is why it has Jim Thome -- our best combined OBP/SLG guy -- in the #2 hole. What I don't get is how it also has Ramirez, who's near lowest on the team in OPS or runs created per game, as a #3 hitter.

 

The other thing to note about this? There are 30 "best lineups" listed, with multiple orders. The difference between the top and the bottom is 0.007 of a run per game. Over a season, this would make the difference of 1.134 runs! But, of course, the players OBPs and SLG numbers vary much more radically from game to game, and you don't know by how much until after the game is played.

 

My conclusion? Don't worry so much about batting order. Worry much more about putting the right 9 guys on the field.

 

 

[caulfield12]

The only inputs into this formula are OBP and SLG. But there's a lot more than that to how a lineup meshes. For one thing, this system completely misses speed, which is why it has Jim Thome -- our best combined OBP/SLG guy -- in the #2 hole. What I don't get is how it also has Ramirez, who's near lowest on the team in OPS or runs created per game, as a #3 hitter.

 

The other thing to note about this? There are 30 "best lineups" listed, with multiple orders. The difference between the top and the bottom is 0.007 of a run per game. Over a season, this would make the difference of 1.134 runs! But, of course, the players OBPs and SLG numbers vary much more radically from game to game, and you don't know by how much until after the game is played.

 

My conclusion? Don't worry so much about batting order. Worry much more about putting the right 9 guys on the field.

 

 

I'll agree to that, I just thought it was interesting and a bit counterintuitive, to create some discussion.

 

It's hard for anyone to be arguing that Beckham isn't the best, and most balanced hitter, and therefore deserves to bat 1-2-3. No arguments from anyone there.

 

Where it gets interesting is who bats 2nd (Getz/Rios/Beckham/Ramirez) and the two "speed" guys you stick at the bottom of the line-up.

 

Nix is also interesting too...the guy has been like Gordon Beckham when playing against RH'ers. But do you give the likes of Nix or Getz more AB's than Alex Rios, your new $60 million dollar man? I don't think so.

 

Going forward, can Pods keep up those same numbers? How good will Quentin actually be the remainder of the year....and how bad will JD actually be?

 

This is a good schedule to really test the mettle of our our players, the VETERANS (Pods, Thome, AJ, Paulie, JD) as they wear down (like Alexei did last year) and the youngsters like Beckham, Getz, Nix, etc.

Edited August 12, 2009 by caulfield12