White Sox steal Rios

[VAfan]

Not sure if this is the proper place for this post -- please move it if necessary -- but I found the discussion interesting.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/white-sox-stea-rios

[rockren]

Not sure if this is the proper place for this post -- please move it if necessary -- but I found the discussion interesting.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/white-sox-stea-rios

 

It was posted last night...but probably deserving of its own thread.

[bighurt4life]

Here's an article from the same place that talks about how Rios contract is pretty good. This is an older- pre-waiver claim article. When we got him I took a look at his career numbers and his BABIP is pretty low right now while everything else is just about the same so we could reasonable expect a strong couple of months from him.

 

Alex Rios, though? He’s guaranteed $59 million from 2010 to 2014 or $71 million through 2015, depending on if his option year at the end of the contract is exercised. That’s $40 million less over the same time period, or $8 million per year less in annual average salary. And Rios has been nothing short of fantastic the last two years – he was worth +4.6 wins in 2007 and +5.5 wins last year. And he’s got the exact same skillset as he had then.

 

BB%: 6.5% in 2008, 6.5% in 2009

K%: 17.6% in 2008, 17.0% in 2009

ISO: .170 in 2008, .156 in 2009

 

His .350 wOBA from last year has become a .325 wOBA this year simply due to BABIP variance, where his .335 batting average on balls in play has dropped to .288 this year. His career BABIP? .328. This “slump” just isn’t anything to be concerned about. He has 32 extra base hits, he’s 13 for 16 in stolen bases, his contact rate is exactly the same as always… there’s just no offensive decline here. He’s the exact same above average hitter he was the last two years.

 

ZIPS projects a .355 wOBA going forward from Rios, which sounds about right for a 28-year-old with his skills. That makes him something like +15 runs per year offensively, and he’s a terrific defensive outfielder to boot, easily capable of playing center or being a gold glove candidate in right.

 

Rios is a +3.5 to +4.5 win player in the prime of his career, and he’s due to make just under $60 million for the next five years. This is a really good contract for the Jays. Rios is an outstanding player being paid less than his market value. He’s as far from being a Wells-like albatross as you could possibly get.

 

Vernon Wells contract is awful, and the Jays have to regret giving it to him every single day. Alex Rios‘ contract is very good, and he’s one of the pieces Toronto should be building around. They are in no way similar.

[chw42]

I think this has a lot of Jay Cutler deal written over it.

 

People think Cutler's overrated, somewhat of a douche.

People think Rios is overrated, expensive, and also somewhat of a douche.

 

Bears have never had a QB as good as Cutler.

Sox haven't had a CF like Rios since Aaron Rowand.

 

Most Bears fans love the Cutler deal, everybody else around the country seems to hate it, not knowing the circumstances of the Bears.

 

Most Sox fans love the Rios deal, everybody else around the country says he sucks and is expensive, not taking into account he's only 28 and the White Sox have a terrible OF that needs defensive help.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I think this has a lot of Jay Cutler deal written over it.

 

People think Cutler's overrated, somewhat of a douche.

People think Rios is overrated, expensive, and also somewhat of a douche.

 

Bears have never had a QB as good as Cutler.

Sox haven't had a CF like Rios since Aaron Rowand.

 

Most Bears fans love the Cutler deal, everybody else around the country seems to hate it, not knowing the circumstances of the Bears.

 

Most Sox fans love the Rios deal, everybody else around the country says he sucks and is expensive, not taking into account he's only 28 and the White Sox have a terrible OF that needs defensive help.

I've seen a lot more comments praising the Sox and KW for the move than anything bad. Rios is already a heck of a talent, and moving him to CF where less offensive performance is required to be considered league average, and also moving him to the Cell where his power numbers should increase, can only help.

Edited August 13, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[jenksycat]

I think this has a lot of Jay Cutler deal written over it.

 

People think Cutler's overrated, somewhat of a douche.

People think Rios is overrated, expensive, and also somewhat of a douche.

 

Bears have never had a QB as good as Cutler.

Sox haven't had a CF like Rios since Aaron Rowand.

 

Most Bears fans love the Cutler deal, everybody else around the country seems to hate it, not knowing the circumstances of the Bears.

 

Most Sox fans love the Rios deal, everybody else around the country says he sucks and is expensive, not taking into account he's only 28 and the White Sox have a terrible OF that needs defensive help.

 

People are starting to turn Bears+ on the deal after seeing how pathetic Neckbeard is

[iamshack]

I think this has a lot of Jay Cutler deal written over it.

 

People think Cutler's overrated, somewhat of a douche.

People think Rios is overrated, expensive, and also somewhat of a douche.

 

Bears have never had a QB as good as Cutler.

Sox haven't had a CF like Rios since Aaron Rowand.

 

Most Bears fans love the Cutler deal, everybody else around the country seems to hate it, not knowing the circumstances of the Bears.

 

Most Sox fans love the Rios deal, everybody else around the country says he sucks and is expensive, not taking into account he's only 28 and the White Sox have a terrible OF that needs defensive help.

 

I think the initial reaction to the Cutler deal may have been the way you describe it, but I guarantee you now that we are far away from the draft, most people think it was a good deal for the Bears. I'm out here in Vegas, and I can tell you people out here like the deal for the Bears, that's for certain.

[prochisox]

I think the initial reaction to the Cutler deal may have been the way you describe it, but I guarantee you now that we are far away from the draft, most people think it was a good deal for the Bears. I'm out here in Vegas, and I can tell you people out here like the deal for the Bears, that's for certain.

 

I agree. Alot of people out here in Vegas love the Bears. The only problem here is u have to get up early for a 10AM game, but its no biggie. Where do u stay around in Vegas? Im near the Chicago bar and grill right off of Fort Apache and Sahara.

[iamshack]

I agree. Alot of people out here in Vegas love the Bears. The only problem here is u have to get up early for a 10AM game, but its no biggie. Where do u stay around in Vegas? Im near the Chicago bar and grill right off of Fort Apache and Sahara.

 

Ahh, I've been there before.

 

I live on the north end of the Strip, just north of Circus Circus.

[prochisox]

Ahh, I've been there before.

 

I live on the north end of the Strip, just north of Circus Circus.

 

Hey, how do u watch Sox games when they are playing Oakland?

[iamshack]

Hey, how do u watch Sox games when they are playing Oakland?

I'm not sure there is a way. Even at the sports books it usually isn't on, unless you catch it on a little monitor they sometimes show it on.

I just barely figured out how to watch them when they play the Angels...I didn't realize you could find them on the LA FSN channel on regular cable.

I think maybe you can order all the FSN channels through cable somehow. You could probably get it that way.

[SoxFan562004]

For the most part nationally the deal has gotten praise. It seems like the negative ones are acting like it was a rent a player deal and they have to pay all $60 million in the next month.

[chw42]

For the most part nationally the deal has gotten praise. It seems like the negative ones are acting like it was a rent a player deal and they have to pay all $60 million in the next month.

 

Unfortunately, it appears that most of the population is that way.

 

The sabermats love the deal (minority).

A good amount of conventional people hate it (majority).

 

What I don't get is that Riccardi is a sabermetric guy, he worked under Billy Beane.

 

He must have seen something in Rios that he really did not like or the people above him forced his hand. I don't know.

Edited August 13, 2009 by chw42

[prochisox]

I'm not sure there is a way. Even at the sports books it usually isn't on, unless you catch it on a little monitor they sometimes show it on.

I just barely figured out how to watch them when they play the Angels...I didn't realize you could find them on the LA FSN channel on regular cable.

I think maybe you can order all the FSN channels through cable somehow. You could probably get it that way.

 

Yea, I tried to go to some places, but the games with Oak are blacked out. I dont think there is a way to get those games with Oakland thru cable, but I may try to call and see if they can tomorrow.

[witesoxfan]

Unfortunately, it appears that most of the population is that way.

 

The sabermats love the deal (minority).

A good amount of conventional people hate it (majority).

 

What I don't get is that Riccardi is a sabermetric guy, he worked under Billy Beane.

 

He must have seen something in Rios that he really did not like or the people above him forced his hand. I don't know.

 

it's a combination of both, and that combination is simply that he makes $60 mill in the next 5 seasons. Because he didn't take a semi-smaller package for Halladay, he was essentially forced to give up Rios for free, and now he is going to get even less for Halladay. Even if he finally saved some money by getting rid of Rios, I have to believe Ricciardi is done as the Blue Jays GM.

[DBAHO]

I was one who probably criticised the move before it happened, because of concerns about Rios' offensive output which has decreased over the past couple of seasons. Whether or not that's something that can be fixed with his swing, whether he just needed a new start, or a manager like Ozzie who'll be on his ass a bit more I don't know.

 

If he gets back on track and gives you good defense in CF, it's an excellent move.

 

Whether or not that happens, we'll have to wait and see.

[VAfan]

The sabermats love the deal (minority).

A good amount of conventional people hate it (majority).

 

What I don't get is that Riccardi is a sabermetric guy, he worked under Billy Beane.

 

He must have seen something in Rios that he really did not like or the people above him forced his hand. I don't know.

 

If you read the piece I posted, it says that the Rios contract is essentially a fair value of Rios. In other words, the Sox got a good deal because they added a player of need without overpaying. But it can also be seen as a square deal for the Blue Jays, because they could conceivably spend the same money elsewhere and get the same value. Even though the title of the post is the Sox got a steal, from a sabremetric point of view, it is a fair transaction.

[Balta1701]

If you read the piece I posted, it says that the Rios contract is essentially a fair value of Rios.

Frankly, it really depends on which Rios we get. The 2006-2007 all star version of Rios, we get solid value (120 OPS+). The 2008 version of Rios (110 OPS+) is fair value. This year's struggling version...we're overpaying, but just a little, and I can live with that if he gives us solid D in CF, a position we've been weak at for 4 years.

[High Mileage]

He's a slighty above average player, with a superstar contract.

 

Most Similar Batters

 

1. Pete Reiser (950)

2. Shane Mack (942)

3. Gabe Kapler (940)

4. David DeJesus (939)

5. Danny Taylor (939)

6. Roy Weatherly (938)

7. Ray Blades (938)

8. Coco Crisp (936)

9. Milton Bradley (934)

10. Wally Judnich (934)

 

I wouldn't have wanted Rios for DeJesus, let alone Rios for $60M.

 

[witesoxfan]

He's a slighty above average player, with a superstar contract.

 

Most Similar Batters

 

1. Pete Reiser (950)

2. Shane Mack (942)

3. Gabe Kapler (940)

4. David DeJesus (939)

5. Danny Taylor (939)

6. Roy Weatherly (938)

7. Ray Blades (938)

8. Coco Crisp (936)

9. Milton Bradley (934)

10. Wally Judnich (934)

 

I wouldn't have wanted Rios for DeJesus, let alone Rios for $60M.

 

But if I can get #9 on that list, minus the injuries and minus the crazy, I'll take that.

[High Mileage]

But if I can get #9 on that list, minus the injuries and minus the crazy, I'll take that.

If Milton Bradley weren't crazy or injury prone, then he wouldn't even be #9 on that list.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

He's a slighty above average player, with a superstar contract.

 

Most Similar Batters

 

1. Pete Reiser (950)

2. Shane Mack (942)

3. Gabe Kapler (940)

4. David DeJesus (939)

5. Danny Taylor (939)

6. Roy Weatherly (938)

7. Ray Blades (938)

8. Coco Crisp (936)

9. Milton Bradley (934)

10. Wally Judnich (934)

 

I wouldn't have wanted Rios for DeJesus, let alone Rios for $60M.

He's a superstar talent who is this year playing like an average offensive CF and is on a contract that even in this economy would be below market value should he revert to his previous career numbers, which is to be expected in a friendlier hitting environment where meaningful baseball is played.

 

If Rios played on the Royals he would be the best position player you have. No need to get jealous about the Sox adding Rios and Peavy while your outstanding GM preps for the playoff run by adding the vaunted Yuniesky Betancourt.

[SoxFan562004]

He's a slighty above average player, with a superstar contract.

 

Most Similar Batters

 

1. Pete Reiser (950)

2. Shane Mack (942)

3. Gabe Kapler (940)

4. David DeJesus (939)

5. Danny Taylor (939)

6. Roy Weatherly (938)

7. Ray Blades (938)

8. Coco Crisp (936)

9. Milton Bradley (934)

10. Wally Judnich (934)

 

I wouldn't have wanted Rios for DeJesus, let alone Rios for $60M.

this year has dragged him down some with his 94 ops+ (last time I checked after the trade). So I imagine the Sox are hoping he comes closer to his previous 2 years when he was a more productive offensive player.

 

Also, "superstar contract" always gets a new meaning. He won't have a "superstar" contract after Bay and Holliday get their new deals

[Melissa1334]

If Rios played on the Royals he would be the best position player you have. No need to get jealous about the Sox adding Rios and Peavy while your outstanding GM preps for the playoff run by adding the vaunted Yuniesky Betancourt.

rios is waay better than dejesus, any team would take rios over dejesus. ....how come we have a royals fan on soxtalk??

[lostfan]

rios is waay better than dejesus, any team would take rios over dejesus. ....how come we have a royals fan on soxtalk??

He's been here a while, HM is a pretty cool poster. There's Bonderman38 and Benchwarmerjim too.