Why Chris Getz Injury Is Good for the Sox

[WCSox]

I haven't seen him have this issue at 2B. The guy is no doubt a plus defensive 2nd baseman.

 

Nix is indeed very good at 2B. And it's perplexing that he's been even worse than Alexei at SS.

 

[lostfan]

Again, I like Nix, and I am a Jayson Nix fan. But his splits vs. RHP are not good and if he was a full-time player he'd have a lot more ABs against RHP, as compared to now when he gets to see lefties more often (at least before Getz got hurt). So we're making an assumption that Nix's production would stay the same, that he would improve vs. RHP rather than be exposed. I'm not ready to buy that. Show me some offensive consistency from Nix before I say he's a better player.

[Chisoxfn]

I'd agree with that, but everyone came into the season thinking he was a great defensive player at 2nd, 3rd, and short. And it's simply not the case. He was touted for his defense, and overall, it's been subpar.

Oh at short he was hideous, but I don't remember anyone saying he was a plus defensive player at SS or 3B. The guy has very little experience playing either of those positions. He has been fine at 3B, but short was a disaster for him.

 

I'd like to see him get a lot more experience there in the spring so that he could become more of a jack of all trades off the bench.

 

[JorgeFabregas]

Jayson Nix is 28 years old and didn't play a single major-league game until last season.

26. 27 in a few days. Saying that he did not play a game in the major leagues until he was 25 is not a big knock.

Edited August 19, 2009 by JorgeFabregas

[WCSox]

26. 27 in a few days.

 

My mistake. I was off by a year.

 

Saying that he did not play a game in the major leagues until he was 25 is not a big knock.

 

You're right, but it's not exactly a sign of progress when a first-round pick doesn't sniff the majors until his eighth year, and doesn't have any substantial playing time in the bigs until his ninth year, when he's on his second team. Perhaps Nix is just a late bloomer, but his career had pretty much followed the "first-round bust" script prior to this season.

 

[ThunderBolt]

Who's operating under 'feeling' here?

 

Your analysis should say: "People don't learn better plate discipline at the major league level. Nix is who Nix is."

 

Getz had more walks than strikeouts in his minor league career (165 walks and 142 strikeouts in 1428 at-bats). Nix had 302 walks and 675 strikeouts in 3250 at-bats.

 

The small sample of major league at-bats you're using to make your point does not provide the basis for a meaningful comparison.

It’s not an assumption, it’s a fact. Once ballplayers reach a certain point in their development, they simply don’t pick up plate discipline. They can learn to take more pitches, but ultimately, you can’t radically change a players approach at the plate when it’s been ingrained within them for years. Assuming that we’re taking Chris Getz on the team as a leadoff hitter, we’d have to take Nix in the lineup in a different facet. Because as you said, Jayson Nix is not a leadoff hitter. Now, the average OBP is .340 for a major league player. The baseline OBP for a good leadoff hitter is one of .375. Throughout his professional career Getz has averaged an OBP .361 of in the minor’s and currently sports one of .324 at the major league level. Getzs’ minor league track record shows an .OPB that fluctuates about .20 points between levels. but with a walk rate that remains fairly consistent at all levels. Assuming that Getz’s numbers from the minors can be extrapolated forwards on to his major league numbers, it’s logical that Chris Getz could end up with an .OBP of about .340. It’s clear from this that Chris Getz as a lead-of hitter, while not entirely unrealistic might not be the best fit for the kid. Now, Nix serves a different purpose, he has no business being leadoff, because his approach at the plate is fundamentally ill suited for it. This does not however compromise his value. Nix’s values lies in his glove and bat. Making him suited better for a position lower in the order. Furthermore, we haven't even touched on just what an asset Jayson's glove is to this team. Playing everyday he saves a handful of runs on average that Getz cannot. Furthermore, given Nix's superior power capabilities he also stands to be worthy of some value at the plate as well. Given his numbers at the minors it seems likely that Chris Getz could eventually evolve into a league-average everyday 2b. And that's fine, quite good actually, but Nix's potential looms slightly beyond that ceiling.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

It’s not an assumption, it’s a fact. Once ballplayers reach a certain point in their development, they simply don’t pick up plate discipline. They can learn to take more pitches, but ultimately, you can’t radically change a players approach at the plate when it’s been ingrained within them for years.

It's hard to say they can't improve their discipline, but it probably is unlikely for most players to upgrade it significantly. But a few points:

 

-A hitter with a sight problem can get laser eye surgery to improve his recognition of a pitch.

-A hitter can improve his reaction timing by getting into better physical shape and training himself specifically to react quicker. Players (even AJ IIRC) have used video games to make improvements in this area and have spoken of their success.

-A hitter with a long swing can shorten it enough to raise his batting average which then improves his OBP as a result and forces pitchers to work the corners more and thereby increases the chances of deeper counts and walks.

-A young line drive hitter can develop power which makes him more dangerous and forces pitchers to work around him more and increases the likelihood of him walking.

-A player who typically stands back further from the plate in the batters box can move closer to the plate during a season to cover the outside corner and end up racking up HBP. How much of CQ OBP is attributed to HBP?

-A player can learn to lay off of certain pitches and learn to work with a smaller strikezone. I imagine this occurs a lot more with young non-Latin players early in their careers as Latin players generally can't lay off of bad pitches without sapping the aggressiveness that got them to the Majors.

 

Those are just a few things off the top of my head, but plate discipline can be improved on. It's just that it's generally not going to be an increase of major significance (like going from a .320 OBP to a .380+ OBP) unless the player either develops big power, fixes a major hole in his swing to make a lot more contact, or unless that player is a high contact guy, especially one with speed, who hits .300 or well above that mark during a season, which for most players would be an abnormality.

[son of a rude]

It's hard to say they can't improve their discipline, but it probably is unlikely for most players to upgrade it significantly. But a few points:

 

-A hitter with a sight problem can get laser eye surgery to improve his recognition of a pitch.

-A hitter can improve his reaction timing by getting into better physical shape and training himself specifically to react quicker. Players (even AJ IIRC) have used video games to make improvements in this area and have spoken of their success.

-A hitter with a long swing can shorten it enough to raise his batting average which then improves his OBP as a result and forces pitchers to work the corners more and thereby increases the chances of deeper counts and walks.

-A young line drive hitter can develop power which makes him more dangerous and forces pitchers to work around him more and increases the likelihood of him walking.

-A player who typically stands back further from the plate in the batters box can move closer to the plate during a season to cover the outside corner and end up racking up HBP. How much of CQ OBP is attributed to HBP?

-A player can learn to lay off of certain pitches and learn to work with a smaller strikezone. I imagine this occurs a lot more with young non-Latin players early in their careers as Latin players generally can't lay off of bad pitches without sapping the aggressiveness that got them to the Majors.

 

Those are just a few things off the top of my head, but plate discipline can be improved on. It's just that it's generally not going to be an increase of major significance (like going from a .320 OBP to a .380+ OBP) unless the player either develops big power, fixes a major hole in his swing to make a lot more contact, or unless that player is a high contact guy, especially one with speed, who hits .300 or well above that mark during a season, which for most players would be an abnormality.

-A player coached by Greg Walker will typically see a drop in every offensive category.

 

[beck72]

Sign me up for the "Getz will have a better MLB career than Jayson Nix" group. Getz probably has the upside of a solid starter. Nix as a superutility guy who could start 3 times a week.

 

Getz isn't overmatched at the plate, as shown by his high contact rate. Nix routinely is overmatched vs. tough pitchers, esp. on offspeed pitches, reminding me of Juan Uribe with a little better OBP. I'd give Nix the edge on defense, though.

[witesoxfan]

C.J. Retherford will be better than both of them.

 

Bold statement from a guy that wanted Chris Getz leading off at the beginning of the season.

 

/bookmark'd

 

Maybe Retherford turns into our version of Howie Kendrick. Howie wasn't a very highly touted amateur but all he did in the minors was hit and hit and hit until he became widely considered an elite prospect.

 

Retherford is clearly not at the level Kendrick is, but hopefully he turns into one of those guys that just hits at an elite level.

 

that'd be a poor, poor, poor, poor version of Howie Kendrick. Howie Kendrick is a phenominal contact hitter, and Retherford strikes out way too much. If you want to compare Retherford to someone who (I believe) is in the Angels organization, you are probably looking at Sean Rodriguez.

 

Why does it matter if he has the range to get to a ball in the hole only to botch it or throw it away?

 

That's a hit too; I'd bet $100 that in any MLB park in North America if a player ranges 15 feet towards the hole (towards 2B for a 2Bman, towards 3B/LF for a SS), and they bobble the ball at any point during the exchange, it's a base hit.

 

And it matters because he got to it. A ball into CF scores a run from 2B. An infield single to 2B does not. If there is a runner on first, it may even result in a fielder's choice.

 

Range is amazing and is one of the reasons Jose Valentin was such an undervalued part of the defense from 2000-2004.

Edited August 19, 2009 by witesoxfan

[witesoxfan]

Sign me up for the "Getz will have a better MLB career than Jayson Nix" group. Getz probably has the upside of a solid starter. Nix as a superutility guy who could start 3 times a week.

 

Getz isn't overmatched at the plate, as shown by his high contact rate. Nix routinely is overmatched vs. tough pitchers, esp. on offspeed pitches, reminding me of Juan Uribe with a little better OBP. I'd give Nix the edge on defense, though.

 

Juan Uribe with better OBP? Trade Alexei!

[lostfan]

Bold statement from a guy that wanted Chris Getz leading off at the beginning of the season.

Eh if not Getz who was going to lead off for the Sox? Wise was an epic, epic fail up there.

[DukeNukeEm]

It's so stupid to try and claim that a player getting injured is a good thing.

[VAfan]

Count me as a person who prefers Nix as the regular and Getz as the backup. The only problem with that is that Getz isn't really much of a utility guy because it's doubtful he could play SS or 3B. So it is actually Nix's versatility that is hurting him.

 

To my mind, the valuable offensive stat is RC27 or runs created per game. It's the easiest stat to understand. A team made up of this player will score this many runs per game.

 

Nix, with increased playing time, has increased his RC27 to 5.20.

Getz is at 4.64.

 

By contrast, the difference between Jim Thome and Paul Konerko is a run per game (6.74 v. 5.73).

 

Now, if the fielding numbers can also be trusted -- to my eye in limited action I don't see Nix as such a stellar 2B (for example, his bobbled ball that led to Oakland's 5 run inning last week that nearly cost us the first game in Oakland) -- then Nix should certainly be starting and getting more ABs than Getz.

 

Plus, I see far more upside in Nix than I see in Getz. Getz never will have any power. If he hits the ball down the line he can leg it into a double, but he's not driving the ball to the wall, for example, and never over it. So he's a singles hitter with the ability to steal. Not insignificant, but not that useful unless he can really increase his walk rate or batting average. Nix seems to me to have potential to increase his average, while keeping his ability to walk and hit the ball over the fence.

 

I'd take Nix.

[WCSox]

It's so stupid to try and claim that a player getting injured is a good thing.

 

Unless you're a Patriots fan talking about Mo Lewis' hit on Bledsoe back in 2001.

 

[witesoxfan]

Eh if not Getz who was going to lead off for the Sox? Wise was an epic, epic fail up there.

 

Oh I wanted Getz, I just find it funny that a guy that was campaigning for a top of the order of Getz-Cook in January says that Retherford is going to be better.

[Ozzie Ball]

Count me as a person who prefers Nix as the regular and Getz as the backup. The only problem with that is that Getz isn't really much of a utility guy because it's doubtful he could play SS or 3B. So it is actually Nix's versatility that is hurting him.

 

To my mind, the valuable offensive stat is RC27 or runs created per game. It's the easiest stat to understand. A team made up of this player will score this many runs per game.

 

Nix, with increased playing time, has increased his RC27 to 5.20.

Getz is at 4.64.

 

By contrast, the difference between Jim Thome and Paul Konerko is a run per game (6.74 v. 5.73).

 

Now, if the fielding numbers can also be trusted -- to my eye in limited action I don't see Nix as such a stellar 2B (for example, his bobbled ball that led to Oakland's 5 run inning last week that nearly cost us the first game in Oakland) -- then Nix should certainly be starting and getting more ABs than Getz.

 

Plus, I see far more upside in Nix than I see in Getz. Getz never will have any power. If he hits the ball down the line he can leg it into a double, but he's not driving the ball to the wall, for example, and never over it. So he's a singles hitter with the ability to steal. Not insignificant, but not that useful unless he can really increase his walk rate or batting average. Nix seems to me to have potential to increase his average, while keeping his ability to walk and hit the ball over the fence.

 

I'd take Nix.

I can't say Im a big fan of RC27 and it's certainly not useful for comparing players at different positions because obviously a team full of DH's is going to score more runs than a team full of 2B's. It also uses total bases as the core of it's calculations and TB's don't weigh each event in proportion to their run values. If you want a sole offensive statistic to look at then wOBA is your best bet, and if you want a statistic that is put into run values then RAR (runs above replacement) is probably the way to go as it takes defensive value and positional adjustments into account.

[lostfan]

Unless you're a Patriots fan talking about Mo Lewis' hit on Bledsoe back in 2001.

Or if the player you're talking about is Bre-... nevermind.

[caulfield12]

Valentin >>> Clayton OR Cabrera (2008 version)

[WCSox]

Valentin >>> Clayton OR Cabrera (2008 version)

 

"Royce The Choice" was much better defensively than Valentin. Unfortunately, he couldn't hit and was a douche in the clubhouse.

 

[caulfield12]

Royce had ZERO range by the time he played with us and never dove for the ball...fewer errors are not more than 33% of the picture here.

 

Look at TC comparing Valentin in 2000/2001 compared to what Clayton did during his time in Chicago...not even close.

[MattZakrowski]

I think it's clear that Nix is the better defensive 2B by a wide margin, and I'll take that kind of power in the middle infield any day of the week.

[WCSox]

Royce had ZERO range by the time he played with us

 

My God, the hyperbole here is ridiculous at times.

 

I know that statheads loved Valentin because of his super-awesome range. I liked Valentin as well, and thought than he was more that serviceable at SS. But he wasn't nearly as good defensively as some of the Church of Sabermetrics parishioners want to believe.

 

In general, I agree that range is more important than errors. But 36 errors in 141 games is a lot. It speaks volumes that Valentin and his range, 25 HRs, and .835 OPS in 2000 was replaced by a guy with inferior range and coming off of a season with a .685 OPS. At some point, errors DO matter.

 

Edited August 20, 2009 by WCSox

[Milkman delivers]

I am all for looking deeper into baseball than just "what my eyes tell me," but dear God, there are just way too many statistics in baseball.

[Dizzy Sox]

They are two different types of players, but why not a Getz/Nix platoon?