jasonxctf Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dow breaks 12,000 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Lots of news slated for today, so... 7:30am: weekly jobless claims 7:30am: Midwest Manufacturing Index 7:30am: Durable Goods for December 9am: Home Sales Index for Nov, also Pending Home Sales for Nov Lots of big earnings too: AMZN, T, MSFT, MOT, CAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Already coming in... Weekly jobless claims jumped way more than expected, to 454k. Expectations were 405k. Weird though, Labor Department said this was distorted by weather, and apparently economists agree. Not sure how snow and ice would increase claims, but, there it is. Durable Goods orders decline 2.5% in December, versus expectations for a 1.4% gain. So that's a big disappointment. Midwest Manufacturing Index increased 0.3 in December to 81.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Also of note, the AP survey of economists finds that the outlook for 2011 is getting brighter than it looked 3 months ago. Good news: Forecasted 3.2% growth (vs 2.7% predicted in October), 2.2 million jobs will be added (was 1.6M in Oct), consumers will spend 3.2% more (vs 2.5% previously predicted) Neutral: Inflation predicted at 1.8% (vs 1.7% they thought before). This is probably where it should be, though I feel its likely to be higher than this. Bad news: UE-simple will probably stay near 9% even by year end, even with the recovery underway. They center around 2016 for the point where they feel it will be back around the "normal" 5% mark. Under 9% is sort of good news, but still a pretty ugly number. Story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenksismyhero Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 SWEET. I just received my smaller paycheck taking into account the new income tax. Thanks Gov. Quinn and democratic leaders of Illinois, you corrupt assholes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 02:20 PM) Also of note, the AP survey of economists finds that the outlook for 2011 is getting brighter than it looked 3 months ago. Good news: Forecasted 3.2% growth (vs 2.7% predicted in October), 2.2 million jobs will be added (was 1.6M in Oct), consumers will spend 3.2% more (vs 2.5% previously predicted) Neutral: Inflation predicted at 1.8% (vs 1.7% they thought before). This is probably where it should be, though I feel its likely to be higher than this. How is inflation being below their targeted 2% in neutral? I'd place it in the bad but you'd probably place that in the good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 02:56 PM) SWEET. I just received my smaller paycheck taking into account the new income tax. Thanks Gov. Quinn and democratic leaders of Illinois, you corrupt assholes! Where is your post thanking Obama and the Congressional Democrats for the slightly larger paychecks you received in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 04:00 PM) Where is your post thanking Obama and the Congressional Democrats for the slightly larger paychecks you received in January? It's not slightly larger, it's the same. They extended tax cuts we already had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (Y2HH @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 05:10 PM) It's not slightly larger, it's the same. They extended tax cuts we already had. Actually, unless you make well over $250k a year (or under $20 k a year), that's not true, the upper crust tax cuts were extended, but the tax cut from the stimulus was replaced by a payroll tax cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 04:12 PM) Actually, unless you make well over $250k a year (or under $20 k a year), that's not true, the upper crust tax cuts were extended, but the tax cut from the stimulus was replaced by a payroll tax cut. So nothings really changed, just shifted? I saw no difference in federal taxes on my checks since the changes, just state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (Y2HH @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 05:13 PM) So nothings really changed, just shifted? I saw no difference in federal taxes on my checks since the changes, just state. If you make between $0 and about $35k, you should have seen a slight tax increase. If you make above that, you should see a slight to moderate tax decrease, with the amount of the decrease growing the more you make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 04:14 PM) If you make between $0 and about $35k, you should have seen a slight tax increase. If you make above that, you should see a slight to moderate tax decrease, with the amount of the decrease growing the more you make. Increasing taxes on people making 35k or less is f***ing retarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (Y2HH @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 05:16 PM) Increasing taxes on people making 35k or less is f***ing retarded. Dude, the Republicans agreed to the plan. That's what is supposed to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 04:18 PM) Dude, the Republicans agreed to the plan. That's what is supposed to happen. They both passed this plan, therefore they're both retarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iwritecode Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 04:14 PM) If you make between $0 and about $35k, you should have seen a slight tax increase. If you make above that, you should see a slight to moderate tax decrease, with the amount of the decrease growing the more you make. My first check this year was about $30 more. But they hadn't started taking the 5% in state taxes yet. When they do that I'll end up with about $20 less per check than I was making last year. My wife is taking an even bigger hit because she makes less than $35K. Plus they will be taking a whole lot more out of her next check to make up for the fact that the tax is retro-active to Jan 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (Y2HH @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 04:19 PM) They both passed this plan, therefore they're both retarded. Which side wanted which concessions? Anyway, my paychecks were slightly higher for the last month. They'll probably be slightly less than they were a year ago with the IL tax increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 04:28 PM) Which side wanted which concessions? Anyway, my paychecks were slightly higher for the last month. They'll probably be slightly less than they were a year ago with the IL tax increase. I don't care which side wanted what...this is what we ended up with, passed by both. Both parties suck, which is why I'm part of neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenksismyhero Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 04:00 PM) Where is your post thanking Obama and the Congressional Democrats for the slightly larger paychecks you received in January? lol, true. I should have done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 27, 2011 -> 03:28 PM) How is inflation being below their targeted 2% in neutral? I'd place it in the bad but you'd probably place that in the good. If they target 2% and get 1.8%, that's effectively neutral. Same with 2.2%. The difference at that level is just not that important. Now, if it was below 1%, that starts to get bad. Same with above 3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Q4 GDP growth initial report comes in at 3.2%. It was 2.6% in Q3 final revision, so that's a nice step... although expecations were for 3.5% in Q4 among analysts. Personal consumption - aka consumer retail spending - jumped 4.4%, the biggest jump in at least 4 years. Commercial and residential construction was a laggard and actually decreased significantly (which, as you all know, I'd call a good thing for now). Hopefully this gives a boost to manufacturing in 2011 Q1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Dow up over 12k again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 28, 2011 -> 08:50 AM) Dow up over 12k again. 3rd day now. Its an important test day going into the weekend. It needs to hold, or it could be a while until it hits it again with that kind of resistance built up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 28, 2011 -> 08:55 AM) 3rd day now. Its an important test day going into the weekend. It needs to hold, or it could be a while until it hits it again with that kind of resistance built up. I think this is one of those round number resistence things - so it may not behave the same way as normal technical resistence points. Not sure if that means more or less likely, but I wouldn't necessarily say its the same 3 and over rule that people are accustomed to in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 28, 2011 -> 09:21 AM) I think this is one of those round number resistence things - so it may not behave the same way as normal technical resistence points. Not sure if that means more or less likely, but I wouldn't necessarily say its the same 3 and over rule that people are accustomed to in this case. Those barriers are important from a psychological standpoint with traders. If it can hold, it could sustain the rally for a while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Dow 12k means nothing. Do not look for trade above, look for a close above 12k. Anyway, there is significant resistance here in the 1296-1303 area SPX, should define a high. I would not be long here. Also would be a seller of SLV looking to cover first half around 24 and second half around 20.50. Could see a test of 1282 level today with a close below there being somewhat bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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