Financial News

[StrangeSox]

Isn't it the case that the Pentagon's books are in such poor order that there's no way to keep track of anything?

[southsider2k5]

Isn't it the case that the [insert government agency]'s books are in such poor order that there's no way to keep track of anything?

 

[Balta1701]

Ignoring of course the fact that there really is a lot different about the DOD from the rest of the government.

[kapkomet]

No, not really.

 

Think of the multiplier effect, over and over and over and over and over again. And it's not just the DoD.

 

The government cooks the books so bad it's not even funny to show this so called growth we're "experiencing".

 

[southsider2k5]

I saw this article on the elevator so I googled it. What I found most interesting is the difference between the story prepared for the US and for India. The Indian version of the story doesn't even show up on the American site.

 

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/04/13/i...pe=economicNews

 

Fed risks losing control of inflation - Fisher

 

The Federal Reserve Building is reflected on a car in Washington September 16, 2008. The U.S. Federal Reserve risks employing a monetary policy that is too expansive and allows inflation to run out of control, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said in an article published on Wednesday.

Credit: Reuters/Jim Young

FRANKFURT | Wed Apr 13, 2011 2:11pm IST

 

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve risks employing a monetary policy that is too expansive and allows inflation to run out of control, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said in an article published on Wednesday.

 

"I see the risk that we don't manage to keep inflation under control," Fisher wrote in an opinion piece published in Germany's Handelsblatt business daily, pointing to firming price pressures across the world.

 

The Fed did what it had to do when panic broke out on capital markets in 2008 but now the situation was different.

 

"After the Fed has done its job, I now above all see the risks of monetary policy being too expansive," he wrote.

 

"There is for example the risk of a misinterpretation of our duties. It is not currently our job now to dilute the debts of an irresponsible government," he added.

 

"In the past, allowing budget deficits to be financed by central banks has always led directly to the abyss. We should block this way out and throw away the key to it."

 

Fed hawks like Fisher have stepped up their criticism of the central bank's super-easy monetary policy in recent weeks.

 

Fisher said on Friday the Fed may need to cut short its current round of quantitative easing to avoid stoking inflation.

 

But core members of the policy-setting committee, including Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley, this week said the economy is still too weak for the Fed to reverse course.

 

Fisher, who has a vote this year on the policy-setting panel, wrote: "It can now hardly be disputed that U.S. businesses have enough financial fuel in the tank to grow and create jobs."

 

(Writing by Paul Carrel; editing by Patrick Graham)

 

versus here...

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/...E73B70A20110412

 

Fed has provided all the liquidity U.S. needs: Fisher

 

DALLAS | Tue Apr 12, 2011 4:42pm EDT

 

DALLAS (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has provided the economy all the liquidity it needs, "and then some," Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday.

 

The U.S. central bank has kept short-term interest rates near zero for more than two years and has bought more than $2 trillion in long-term securities to push borrowing costs down still further.

 

Fed officials will next meet to discuss monetary policy in two weeks. It will be their last chance to end the Fed's current $600 billion bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, before its slated end in June.

 

Fisher, who was moderating a panel in Dallas, made the comment as part of a question to participants about how the government can spur growth.

 

Inveterate Fed hawks like Fisher have stepped up their criticism of the central bank's super-easy monetary policy in recent weeks. Fisher said on Friday the Fed may need to cut short its current round of quantitative easing to avoid stoking inflation.

 

But core members of the policy-setting committee, including Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley, this week said the economy is still too weak for the Fed to reverse course.

 

Fisher, who has a vote this year on the policy-setting panel, did not take questions from the audience or reporters.

 

(Reporting by Laurie Fox; Writing by Ann Saphir; Editing by Dan Grebler)

[Balta1701]

The Washington Post writes an article on how ordinary people are dealing with the gas price hike.

Nearly three-quarters of Americans says higher prices could slow their spending in other areas in the months ahead, according to a Deloitte survey of consumers’ spending intentions.

 

“We have an au pair from France, and she recently filled up our minivan and gave me a bill for $70,” said Melanie Janin, a mother of three from Bethesda. “I was like, ‘Oh, my God.’ ”

[iamshack]

The Washington Post writes an article on how ordinary people are dealing with the gas price hike.

Yes, my au pair is from Switzerland and did the same to me...

[southsider2k5]

The Washington Post writes an article on how ordinary people are dealing with the gas price hike.

 

The fun part poking around google is that she seems to work for the Enviornmental Defense Fund. Who knew being green was so green.

[BigSqwert]

The Washington Post writes an article on how ordinary people are dealing with the gas price hike.

 

 

Yes, my au pair is from Switzerland and did the same to me...

 

What am I missing here? That the family uses an au pair? Some au pairs work for pretty lousy money and just want an opportunity to be in this country. They could even wind up being cheaper than sending a kid to daycare.

[StrangeSox]

Someone living in Bethesda, MD probably not in the average income range.

[Balta1701]

Seems like everyone and their grandmother's financial advisor is rushing out to cut their estimates of GDP growth this week.

The trade data for February has led several economists to mark down their already-battered estimates for first-quarter growth. Morgan Stanley slashed their estimate to 1.5% from 1.9% after what they called "a very weak report." RBS Securities cut their estimates to 1.7% from 2%, and adding that while some of the cooling reflects special factors, "the combination of slowing growth and rising prices puts the Fed in an increasingly uncomfortable position." RDQ Economics, which is waiting until Wednesday's retail sales report to adjust their numbers, said "the quarter is looking very soft from the expenditure side."

 

When 2011 began, Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting company, expected that America’s economic output would shape up to rise at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter, the highest pace in over a year.

 

But economic reports coming in over the last few months have been increasingly disappointing.

 

Today, after an especially weak report on February’s trade deficit, the group’s economists lowered their first quarter G.D.P. estimate to a sorry 1.5 percent annualized. If borne out, that rate would be slower than each of the last two quarters, at a time when the economy desperately needs to be rocketing forward so that companies will hasten their hiring.

[NorthSideSox72]

Seems like everyone and their grandmother's financial advisor is rushing out to cut their estimates of GDP growth this week.

Which is funny, because the jobs numbers that came out today were surprisingly good. Highest level of available jobs since the recession started, lowest ratio of unemployed to open jobs, largest number in a while for people voluntarily leaving jobs.

 

It seems like maybe we're looking at companies finally realizing that they can't juice any more productivity out of their people, and they can't wait to hire anymore if they want to stay growing. That doesn't negate the Q1 slide, but it more suggests maybe the realization that in order for GDP to grow more, companies need to start hiring more. And that wouldn't show an effect until the latter half of the year, most likely.

 

[southsider2k5]

Which is funny, because the jobs numbers that came out today were surprisingly good. Highest level of available jobs since the recession started, lowest ratio of unemployed to open jobs, largest number in a while for people voluntarily leaving jobs.

 

It seems like maybe we're looking at companies finally realizing that they can't juice any more productivity out of their people, and they can't wait to hire anymore if they want to stay growing. That doesn't negate the Q1 slide, but it more suggests maybe the realization that in order for GDP to grow more, companies need to start hiring more. And that wouldn't show an effect until the latter half of the year, most likely.

 

Jobs lag growth. Its not unusual at all. Companies react to the economy, and not the other way around.

[Jenksismyhero]

This made me laugh. I love our government:

 

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/155509-h...iling-a-mistake

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Jobs lag growth. Its not unusual at all. Companies react to the economy, and not the other way around.

Except what I am saying is the opposite. In this case, some growth has occurred, but we've hit a ceiling with it, so companies are forced to hire. Therefore, my read is, the growth may be less than spectacular the first half of 2011, but then pick up a lot in the 2nd half.

 

[Balta1701]

Except what I am saying is the opposite. In this case, some growth has occurred, but we've hit a ceiling with it, so companies are forced to hire. Therefore, my read is, the growth may be less than spectacular the first half of 2011, but then pick up a lot in the 2nd half.

There's one big problem with that...even if the job market is improving...consumer confidence is plummeting, because of the price of one particular commodity.

[southsider2k5]

There's one big problem with that...even if the job market is improving...consumer confidence is plummeting, because of the price of one particular commodity.

 

Which means the improvements in the job market will end quickly, IMO.

[Balta1701]

Which means the improvements in the job market will end quickly, IMO.

I know i've been the pessimist for 5+ years now...but I'm sorta agreeing with this.

[southsider2k5]

Inflation is the one thing that will kill this comeback. The income effect will devistate families and businesses alike.

[NorthSideSox72]

There's one big problem with that...even if the job market is improving...consumer confidence is plummeting, because of the price of one particular commodity.

 

This is patently false, the numbers rose a lot for a bunch of time, only recently coming back a bit. And jobs will help this number anyway.

 

Inflation is the one thing that will kill this comeback. The income effect will devistate families and businesses alike.

 

But this I agree with, and I think it will start kicking late this year or, more likely, some time next year. This is what scares me the most, is overall inflation starting its snap back.

 

[mr_genius]

Inflation is the one thing that will kill this comeback. The income effect will devistate families and businesses alike.

 

agreed

[mr_genius]

And jobs will help this number anyway.

 

got any links to positive job numbers? Last time I was reading about the jobs situation, it really seemed like the UE rate was going down merely due to the fact that so many people had dropped out of the labor market.

[NorthSideSox72]

got any links to positive job numbers? Last time I was reading about the jobs situation, it really seemed like the UE rate was going down merely due to the fact that so many people had dropped out of the labor market.

Well UE rate is going down for that reason AND positive underliers, plus the claims numbers have been trending down for some time. But I was specifically referring to what I noted in the post - jobs numbers for available jobs, seekers to jobs, and churn were released, all looking far better than anticipated. Linky.

 

[Balta1701]

This is patently false, the numbers rose a lot for a bunch of time, only recently coming back a bit. And jobs will help this number anyway.

It's patently false that the consumer confidence number jumped off a cliff in March?

U.S. consumer confidence dropped in March after two months of gains, the Conference Board said Tuesday.

 

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index, which uses 1985 as a base year with an assigned value of 100, fell from 72 in February to 63.4 in March. The Expectations Index, measuring consumer confidence in the economy six months down the road, fell from 97.5 a month ago to 81.1.

 

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2011/03/2.../#ixzz1JV9ul5zh

[NorthSideSox72]

It's patently false that the consumer confidence number jumped off a cliff in March?

Nice changing what you said. Look at my post - I specifically said, they had steadily improved over time, and only recently fell back. That is true.