Financial News

[Cknolls]

I actually agree with you 100%. the problem is that it will be doubly dangerous because of the utter dependence on government in that country. When that bubble goes, it is going to pop a lot of other sectors there. I really feel that it could be bad enough to take down the government like commodity prices and debt did to the USSR.

 

 

Austrailia will get hammered when this happens.

[Balta1701]

I actually agree with you 100%. the problem is that it will be doubly dangerous because of the utter dependence on government in that country. When that bubble goes, it is going to pop a lot of other sectors there. I really feel that it could be bad enough to take down the government like commodity prices and debt did to the USSR.

Which is why the bubble must be maintained at all costs.

 

Scary, all of us pretty much agreeing on that. Yikes.

[southsider2k5]

Which is why the bubble must be maintained at all costs.

 

Scary, all of us pretty much agreeing on that. Yikes.

 

The conspriatilist in me feels that this is why we either let it pop, or help pop it. We eliminate a thread accross multiple sectors. Remember in the 80s when Japan was going to take over?

[Balta1701]

First time we've had 2 consecutive weeks of 400k+ new unemployment claims since January.

[kapkomet]

First time we've had 2 consecutive weeks of 400k+ new unemployment claims since January.

 

 

This is only the beginning of the double dip. And there's no safety net this time.

 

So, that Chinese bubble better pop pretty soon... oh, but then our prices would go even higher... oops.

[Balta1701]

So, that Chinese bubble better pop pretty soon... oh, but then our prices would go even higher... oops.

Huh?

 

If the chinese bubble burst, commodity demand would drop significantly, and right now commodity prices are the only thing showing increases; core CPI is still flat.

[southsider2k5]

Huh?

 

If the chinese bubble burst, commodity demand would drop significantly, and right now commodity prices are the only thing showing increases; core CPI is still flat.

 

Commodity prices would drop, but so would Chinese production. The costs of our good would be picked up by other labor, which would be much more expensive.

[Balta1701]

Commodity prices would drop, but so would Chinese production. The costs of our good would be picked up by other labor, which would be much more expensive.

Think through that for a second though. If Chinese production drops, it's not dropping because U.S. demand has decreased, it's dropping because Chinese demand has decreased. If Chinese demand decreased, that would put a deflationary pressure on the price of Chinese goods. It would actually make them cheaper for Americans to buy. Factories with robust export potential don't close, and there'd be plenty of spare capacity in China if some of them did.

 

Furthermore, there is ample spare capacity available in this country for domestic production increases if Chinese Domestic production fell off. Yes, labor costs are higher, but transportation costs would be lower, and you get the added benefit of domestic job production.

 

There are 2 things that could happen which hurt the U.S. in the event of a Chinese burst. First, exports to China from the U.S. would be hurt...but the U.S. export market to china pales in comparison to what China exports to the U.S. That'd sting a little, but it's not the dominant effect. The other thing that could happen is a governmental collapse or civil war. That's legitimately bad.

 

If the Chinese stop manipulating the U.S. dollar through currency purchases...that's actually exactly what we've been demanding the Chinese do for the last decade.

[StrangeSox]

I think transportation costs are negligible compared to labor cost differences between the two countries.

[southsider2k5]

Think through that for a second though. If Chinese production drops, it's not dropping because U.S. demand has decreased, it's dropping because Chinese demand has decreased. If Chinese demand decreased, that would put a deflationary pressure on the price of Chinese goods. It would actually make them cheaper for Americans to buy. Factories with robust export potential don't close, and there'd be plenty of spare capacity in China if some of them did.

 

Furthermore, there is ample spare capacity available in this country for domestic production increases if Chinese Domestic production fell off. Yes, labor costs are higher, but transportation costs would be lower, and you get the added benefit of domestic job production.

 

There are 2 things that could happen which hurt the U.S. in the event of a Chinese burst. First, exports to China from the U.S. would be hurt...but the U.S. export market to china pales in comparison to what China exports to the U.S. That'd sting a little, but it's not the dominant effect. The other thing that could happen is a governmental collapse or civil war. That's legitimately bad.

 

If the Chinese stop manipulating the U.S. dollar through currency purchases...that's actually exactly what we've been demanding the Chinese do for the last decade.

 

Which are all very inflationary.

[Balta1701]

I think transportation costs are negligible compared to labor cost differences between the two countries.

Don't forget, it's not just the cost of transporting the iPhone across the ocean, it's the cost of transporting everything to China as well.

[southsider2k5]

Don't forget, it's not just the cost of transporting the iPhone across the ocean, it's the cost of transporting everything to China as well.

 

Most of that would be either a one time cost, or it would be something that would need to be transported here instead.

[Cknolls]

Every time Bambi says moderate, subdued, or transitory....take a drink.

[Balta1701]

Every time Bambi says moderate, subdued, or transitory....take a drink.

Bambi?

[NorthSideSox72]

Bambi?

Ben Bernanke I think.

 

[Balta1701]

Ben Bernanke I think.

I got who that meant.

 

No idea where that name for him came from.

[Balta1701]

Whatever happened to NSS posting the data dumps.

 

1.8% GDP growth in Q1. Not good. I'll bet you it gets revised down.

 

Weekly unemployment claims 429,000, 4 week moving average jumps back above 400k for the first time since Feb. Not good.

[NorthSideSox72]

Whatever happened to NSS posting the data dumps.

 

1.8% GDP growth in Q1. Not good. I'll bet you it gets revised down.

 

Weekly unemployment claims 429,000, 4 week moving average jumps back above 400k for the first time since Feb. Not good.

Just seemed like after the first few times, people weren't really responding, so I figured no one cared (unless it represented a significant tide change, like the recent UE claims numbers are).

 

[Jenksismyhero]

Remember in the immigration debate, when people were claiming that the jobs held by illegals wouldn't be taken by Americans because "Americans don't want to work in low paying jobs like that?"

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-28/m...an-planned.html

 

A million people in the country applied for 62,000 jobs with McDonalds. Obviously McDonalds isn't the worst job in the world, but I think most people would consider it one of the low paying jobs that Americans typically don't want to have.

[StrangeSox]

That doesn't really follow.

[Balta1701]

That doesn't really follow.

I'm going to open a McDonalds out in the middle of the field where the full day is spent doing manual labor and after 3 weeks you have to pick up and move 50 miles.

 

 

The issue isn't that Americans won't do the jobs. Its that Americans won't do those jobs for menial pay.

[Jenksismyhero]

I'm going to open a McDonalds out in the middle of the field where the full day is spent doing manual labor and after 3 weeks you have to pick up and move 50 miles.

 

 

The issue isn't that Americans won't do the jobs. Its that Americans won't do those jobs for menial pay.

 

So you'd agree that minimum wage isn't menial pay?

 

[Balta1701]

So you'd agree that minimum wage isn't menial pay?

Depends on what your standard is.

 

Can you support a family on it? God no, only way you can pull that off is if the government picks up your health insurance costs and other stuff.

 

If you're comparing it to the complete wreck of a job market that Wall Street left the country with after 2008, well, yeah.

[jasonxctf]

DJIA nearly back to where it was 3 years ago, May 2008.

[bigruss]

Remember in the immigration debate, when people were claiming that the jobs held by illegals wouldn't be taken by Americans because "Americans don't want to work in low paying jobs like that?"

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-28/m...an-planned.html

 

A million people in the country applied for 62,000 jobs with McDonalds. Obviously McDonalds isn't the worst job in the world, but I think most people would consider it one of the low paying jobs that Americans typically don't want to have.

College and high school kids are getting desperate for summer jobs, especially if they are in a major that doesn't have a decent amount of internships.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing hte breakdown of those who applied for jobs with McDonalds.