Financial News

[BigSqwert]

Galleon Group hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam has been found guilty on all 14 counts of securities fraud and conspiracy

[Balta1701]

Another bad weekly unemployment number, and the 4 week moving average is back in "bad" territory.

The number of new workers seeking unemployment benefits dropped 44,000 to a seasonally adjusted 434,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That is the steepest weekly fall since February 2010.

 

The drop suggests that the increase of 47,000 reported last week was mostly due to temporary factors. The state of New York reported that applications jumped more than 24,000 two weeks ago, because more school systems had spring break than usual. That led to a spike in temporary layoffs. A new extended benefits program in Oregon had caused applications to rise in that state.

 

...

The four-week average of claims, a less volatile measure, rose to 436,750, its fifth straight increase. The average has jumped 46,500, or nearly 12%, since early April.

[Balta1701]

The head of the IMF and a likely candidate for the French presidency was arrested today on charges of sexual assault and attempted rape.

[Jenksismyhero]

Ugh. I hate this so much. So, so much.

 

http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/news/lo...0,4110285.story

[Balta1701]

The CFPB, even though it doesn't have an official head, has rolled out 2 tentative, straightforward forms that would spell out the details in a mortgage contract in a way that is easier to read than a 1040 form. Take a look, and decide if the CFPB is the worst thing in the world and must be prevented from enforcing these type of forms at all cost, as one particular party argues.

[Balta1701]

serious question...esp. hope 2k5 chimes in.

 

I've got a small number of government bonds as savings. I know everything I have in the market will get hammered if there's a default, but that will just be a paper loss and will probably come back with time, but those bonds are worrying me in the event of a default.

 

Any idea what might happen to existing U.S. government bonds if they do default? And at what point do we decide that the market isn't panicking enough and sell them?

 

I'm thinking that if there's no deal on the debt limit by June 15th or so, I'm going to dump them, but I'm worried that there'll be a run away from them before that time if I keep waiting.

[southsider2k5]

As of this point there has been no sales pressure in the bonds or notes. They are still holding up just fine because everyone expects a deal to be done. Unless the message becomes crazy out of Washington, I see no reason for that to change. I'm guessing at worst they would get a short term extension done just because the credit of the United States is all that is keeping it going right now, and they know if they default, they credit line of the US dries up.

[Balta1701]

As of this point there has been no sales pressure in the bonds or notes. They are still holding up just fine because everyone expects a deal to be done. Unless the message becomes crazy out of Washington, I see no reason for that to change. I'm guessing at worst they would get a short term extension done just because the credit of the United States is all that is keeping it going right now, and they know if they default, they credit line of the US dries up.

So basically...everyone's holding them and gambling on Congress's competence.

 

With the fact that a number of prominent officials have come out and said that defaulting will be no big deal, and the fact that Limbaugh started arguing this week that defaulting will actually improve the U.S.'s credit rating, that just reinforces my thinking that mid-June might be a good dumping point.

 

Worst case scenario...I take the money out and pay a lower tax rate on it now than I would have if I cashed them in 2-3 years from now once I find a better job. The downside risk is pretty low there.

[southsider2k5]

So basically...everyone's holding them and gambling on Congress's competence.

 

With the fact that a number of prominent officials have come out and said that defaulting will be no big deal, and the fact that Limbaugh started arguing this week that defaulting will actually improve the U.S.'s credit rating, that just reinforces my thinking that mid-June might be a good dumping point.

 

Worst case scenario...I take the money out and pay a lower tax rate on it now than I would have if I cashed them in 2-3 years from now once I find a better job. The downside risk is pretty low there.

 

If you are really scared, sell. If you are right, there isn't going to be a higher point in price than now. (that might change by a point or two based on market conditions, but the general idea is the same). The prices now are historically ridiculous anyway.

[Balta1701]

If you are really scared, sell. If you are right, there isn't going to be a higher point in price than now. (that might change by a point or two based on market conditions, but the general idea is the same). The prices now are historically ridiculous anyway.

I don't know that I am really scared just yet...I just don't want to be the 3rd person who becomes really scared, because the first 2 are going to make out ok, while the rest of the people won't.

 

I'm actually kinda starting to think that nothing will happen in Congress until there is a huge move in the bond market where people do get scared. Might take that kind of fear to shake things loose.

[NorthSideSox72]

I wouldn't sell. You have to understand, there are a number of short term things they can do to cover their debt obligations, if Congress goes into a temporary pattern of inaction. Further, the bonds wouldn't become worthless anyway - the US government may just miss a "payment" of interest for some period, a very short one if at all.

 

If the US government starts actually defaulting on the principal obligation on any significant amount its debt, then frankly, none of this matters, because the entire financial market system begins to collapse and there is no longer a safe haven of any kind. That's the disaster scenario, and it won't occur.

 

Then there are the idiots who are holding and hoarding gold for such an event. This is the silliest thing I can imagine, beyond just the fact that the likelihood of a full collapse is insanely low. Buying gold as an investment vehicle is one thing, it makes sense. Buying and delivering is just patently stupid. If things got so bad that the currency collapsed, the country falls into chaos... and what good does that brick of gold do you anyway? Its not a usable good, so it becomes as empty as paper money, unless you want to build some circuits or jewelry or something.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't know that I am really scared just yet...I just don't want to be the 3rd person who becomes really scared, because the first 2 are going to make out ok, while the rest of the people won't.

 

I'm actually kinda starting to think that nothing will happen in Congress until there is a huge move in the bond market where people do get scared. Might take that kind of fear to shake things loose.

And then things get back to basically normal shortly after, so you are back where you started. So again, selling on this type of fear is only smart if you are doing it with the intention of buying again at a lower price.

 

[Y2HH]

Let me make this simple for you...

 

If the US defaults, it doesn't matter if you sold or not. The difference would be having a bunch of worthless paper vs wishing you had sold so you could have a bunch of worthless paper.

 

Don't sell on fear, that's what the suckers do. It doesn't matter what the asset is worth now, or during a depression, it matters what it's worth when you sell it. People never seem to learn from the past. I don't know how many times I've seen the market crash and hear people say the era of the stock market is over...only to see it recover again...and again.

 

Imagine if you were one of the suckers that panicked in 2008 and sold before you "lost everything" because some "financial manager" told you too get out before it's too late...instead of just waiting a few short years (if that), and being right back where you were (or very close too it), in 2007.

 

The market, be it stocks, bonds, or commodities, are not for the feint of heart...if you look at your portfolio everyday and say damnit, I just lost X...it means you're doing it wrong. You didn't lose X unless you sold it, so long as you didn't, just wait...if it's a viable asset, it WILL recover in time. The good news is, we are all pretty young, and we have time.

[NorthSideSox72]

Let me make this simple for you...

 

If the US defaults, it doesn't matter if you sold or not. The difference would be having a bunch of worthless paper vs wishing you had sold so you could have a bunch of worthless paper.

 

Don't sell on fear, that's what the suckers do. It doesn't matter what the asset is worth now, or during a depression, it matters what it's worth when you sell it. People never seem to learn from the past. I don't know how many times I've seen the market crash and hear people say the era of the stock market is over...only to see it recover again...and again.

 

Imagine if you were one of the suckers that panicked in 2008 and sold before you "lost everything" because some "financial manager" told you too get out before it's too late...instead of just waiting a few short years (if that), and being right back where you were (or very close too it), in 2007.

 

The market, be it stocks, bonds, or commodities, are not for the feint of heart...if you look at your portfolio everyday and say damnit, I just lost X...it means you're doing it wrong. You didn't lose X unless you sold it, so long as you didn't, just wait...if it's a viable asset, it WILL recover in time. The good news is, we are all pretty young, and we have time.

I think I said that.

 

[Y2HH]

I think I said that.

 

Not sure, I didn't read a bunch of previous posts, I just responded.

 

So we agree then...for a change. It's about time you're right about something.

[bmags]

holy LinkedIn

[bigruss]

holy LinkedIn

I just kept watching that stock rise and rise on google finance, if I had paid attention enough to know it was going public I would've jumped on the wave early on.

[southsider2k5]

I just kept watching that stock rise and rise on google finance, if I had paid attention enough to know it was going public I would've jumped on the wave early on.

 

I wish I could have shorted it MOC yesterday.

[bmags]

I just kept watching that stock rise and rise on google finance, if I had paid attention enough to know it was going public I would've jumped on the wave early on.

 

from what i read the first real purchase of it was at $83. Which at that point, I'm not sure i'd be confident I'd get a good return. But I DO think LinkedIn is a solid company, with real revenue and chance for growth.

[southsider2k5]

from what i read the first real purchase of it was at $83. Which at that point, I'm not sure i'd be confident I'd get a good return. But I DO think LinkedIn is a solid company, with real revenue and chance for growth.

 

Its up over $100 today, which is insane. It has a market cap of over $3 billion. People never learn. It should be 10% of its valuation.

[bigruss]

from what i read the first real purchase of it was at $83. Which at that point, I'm not sure i'd be confident I'd get a good return. But I DO think LinkedIn is a solid company, with real revenue and chance for growth.

It went up to about $115, and is currently at $101, that's a quick profit if bought at $83ish.

[bmags]

i suppose if you are going for 1 day you are correct. So clearly secondshare can be a good indicator for anyone looking to make a quick turn around on an IPO

[southsider2k5]

It went up to about $115, and is currently at $101, that's a quick profit if bought at $83ish.

 

You have to wait until after the 30 day mark when you can start shorting a company and buying puts.

[Chisoxfn]

I wouldn't sell. You have to understand, there are a number of short term things they can do to cover their debt obligations, if Congress goes into a temporary pattern of inaction. Further, the bonds wouldn't become worthless anyway - the US government may just miss a "payment" of interest for some period, a very short one if at all.

 

If the US government starts actually defaulting on the principal obligation on any significant amount its debt, then frankly, none of this matters, because the entire financial market system begins to collapse and there is no longer a safe haven of any kind. That's the disaster scenario, and it won't occur.

 

Then there are the idiots who are holding and hoarding gold for such an event. This is the silliest thing I can imagine, beyond just the fact that the likelihood of a full collapse is insanely low. Buying gold as an investment vehicle is one thing, it makes sense. Buying and delivering is just patently stupid. If things got so bad that the currency collapsed, the country falls into chaos... and what good does that brick of gold do you anyway? Its not a usable good, so it becomes as empty as paper money, unless you want to build some circuits or jewelry or something.

Thats why I buy grain....I figure when the world ends, people will want my closet full of grains!

[Balta1701]

China’s export-led growth model is on the verge of collapse, according to Richard Duncan, chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Management. He says that it is only a matter of time before the “great Chinese bubble” pops.

 

“Now the U.S. is in crisis, they can’t continue absorbing China’s surplus production, so China’s year of rapid export led growth is going to quickly come to an end,” Duncan told CNBC on Friday.

 

He believes the recent explosion of domestic credit creation has saved the collapse of China’s economy.

 

But Duncan is concerned that rapid credit growth could in fact lead to a banking crisis in the mainland. “There could be no more certain way to destroy a banking system that to permit 60 percent loan growth over a two-year period… Every boom busts, China's boom will be no exception."

lINK