Balta1701 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 General Motors became the largest automobile company in the world in 1931 and stayed that way until 2008. You can't really expect me to believe that anecodotes prove that there is adequate demand do you? Fine. Borders Circuit City Hollywood Video The Sharper Image Ritz Camera KB Toys Bennigans Mervyns Gottschalks Steve & Barry's Wickes Furniture A bunch of companies went under, clearly that proves that there is a significant lack of demand based on your standard, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 There is no war but class war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 03:27 PM) General Motors became the largest automobile company in the world in 1931 and stayed that way until 2008. You can't really expect me to believe that anecodotes prove that there is adequate demand do you? Fine. Borders Circuit City Hollywood Video The Sharper Image Ritz Camera KB Toys Bennigans Mervyns Gottschalks Steve & Barry's Wickes Furniture A bunch of companies went under, clearly that proves that there is a significant lack of demand based on your standard, right? No, not really. The companies you mentioned went under due to mismanagement and poor to market strategies. And GM is once again posting record profits, so is Ford. And to add to this, those companies you mentioned failed because they refused to move their businesses into the future. They kept them running in a way that the industry was turning away from...they held steady, however, instead of adapting. Edited August 4, 2011 by Y2HH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 We have 9% unemployment, not 100%. Obviously some amount of demand still exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 03:30 PM) We have 9% unemployment, not 100%. Obviously some amount of demand still exists. That 9% figure is also a bunch of garbage. Unemployment is probably closer to depression levels of 25%. They don't consider you unemployed if 1) you aren't actively looking for work, and 2) aren't receiving unemployment benefits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 QUOTE (Y2HH @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 04:28 PM) No, not really. The companies you mentioned went under due to mismanagement and poor to market strategies. And GM is once again posting record profits, so is Ford. And to add to this, those companies you mentioned failed because they refused to move their businesses into the future. They kept them running in a way that the industry was turning away from...they held steady, however, instead of adapting. And so perhaps the businesses you posted are succeeding due to good market strategies and good products and not actually saying anything about aggregate demand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 QUOTE (Y2HH @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 04:31 PM) That 9% figure is also a bunch of garbage. Unemployment is probably closer to depression levels of 25%. They don't consider you unemployed if 1) you aren't actively looking for work, and 2) aren't receiving unemployment benefits. 25%? Come on man. Even I'm not that nuts. U6 is up around 16% right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 03:34 PM) 25%? Come on man. Even I'm not that nuts. U6 is up around 16% right? Point is, it's a lot higher than the 9% they keep reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 QUOTE (Y2HH @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 04:37 PM) Point is, it's a lot higher than the 9% they keep reporting. Which is why "Aggregate demand" is what we're missing, because people can't afford to buy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 03:16 PM) The lack of demand is a product of the fact that we have 9% unemployment and policy makers think that's not high enough. They are sitting on that money because if they did invest it, they'd be likely to lose money on the investment because there wouldn't be customers for new products. You can see that throughout the data. Factories are idled, the construction industry is a fraction of where it was a few years ago (not just in housing), companies that actually make or do things have way more capacity than they can use because all their customers lost their jobs. That's why some of us keep pushing stimulus. If people are able to buy things, that brings that capacity to do things back online, and furthermore, if that happens by printing T-Bills, then that makes Treasuries a worse investment. Even if you got rid of rules for wall street through another round of deregulation, that wouldn't change the underlying lack of demand. The irony is that your plan is to put more money into the pockets of the very people that you are demonizing, while still not addressing the actual problem with the economy. It didn't work before, it won't work this time. Why? Because until there is confidence in the system, any spending will be temporary, and isn't going to result in any sort of real expansion. This is exactly what happened to the first stimulus plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Except that it did exactly what a too small stimulus package should have done...stopped the free-fall in its tracks, but fail to bring capital off the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Here's another gem from former Bush Speechwriter David Frum: My conservative friends argue that the policies of Barack Obama are responsible for the horrifying length and depth of the economic crisis. Question: Which policies? Obama’s only tax increases – those contained in the Affordable Care Act – do not go into effect until 2014. Personal income tax rates and corporate tax rates are no higher today than they have been for the past decade. The payroll tax has actually been cut by 2 points. Total federal tax collections have dropped by 4 points of GDP since 2007, from 18+% to 14+%, the lowest rate since the Truman administration. If so minded, you could describe Barack Obama as the biggest tax cutter in American history. We have not seen a major surge in federal regulation, at least by the usual rough metrics: the page count of the Federal Register has risen by less than 5% since George W. Bush’s last year in office. Trade remains as free as it was a decade ago. While the Affordable Care Act itself will eventually have major economic consequences, most of its provisions remain only impending. Energy prices have surged, but that’s hardly a response to administration policies. Conservatives complain about restrictions on drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, but on a planet that produces 63 million barrels of oil per day, a few thousand more or less from the Gulf will not much budge the price of oil. Rising oil prices are a story about Chinese and Indian consumption and Middle Eastern political instability, not about US drilling or lack thereof. The Dodd-Frank bill does somewhat curtail the activities of some banks and investment firms. But is it seriously argued that this could be the cause? Conservatives complain about excess government spending. Fine. But isn’t the evil of excess government spending supposed to be inflation rather than recession? And where’s the inflation? There’s a strong case for condemning Barack Obama for the things he might have done, but did not do. He might have cut payroll taxes more and faster. He might have pushed for more expansionary Federal Reserve governors. He might have designed a better stimulus. All true. But the things he did do? Texas Gov. Rick Perry today urges us to believe that the economy is gripped by the worst slump since the Great Depression because Obama spoke disrespectfully of the owners of private jets. To which I can only say: Really? That’s the indictment? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 03:54 PM) Here's another gem from former Bush Speechwriter David Frum: More discussions over what happened and the problems -- no solutions. We can probably stop reading about what happened, it's been written about 50,000,000,000 times now. It's time for solutions...otherwise we are just rehashing what was already said in this thread 25,000 posts ago, probably by the same people discussing it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 QUOTE (Y2HH @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 03:58 PM) More discussions over what happened and the problems -- no solutions. We can probably stop reading about what happened, it's been written about 50,000,000,000 times now. It's time for solutions...otherwise we are just rehashing what was already said in this thread 25,000 posts ago, probably by the same people discussing it now. Some people still like to insist in an alternate reality. If you can't recognize the causes of a problem, you can't treat the symptoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 For instance, if you insist that Obama's mean words and current and potential regulations are making businesses too scared to spend, you're going to have a different solution than if you say the problem is a lack of demand cycle and you need counter-cyclical spending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 What do you all think of what happened on Wall Street today? Reading the yahoo article it says most are convinced we are in for another recession. Wow. If businesses are going to be laying off tons of people again, will the economy ever recover? Are we looking at the biggest depressionary period in u.s. history?? Is it coming soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksfart Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 buy the dip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 04:57 PM) What do you all think of what happened on Wall Street today? Reading the yahoo article it says most are convinced we are in for another recession. Wow. If businesses are going to be laying off tons of people again, will the economy ever recover? Are we looking at the biggest depressionary period in u.s. history?? Is it coming soon? Will the economy ever recover? Yes. The question is when, and how far down the road is said recovery? And no, right now, we are not in a depression, it's a recession, and at this point a half recovered recession. Is it coming soon? If I knew that for certain, I could make more money than I need for 5 lifetimes by shorting the market on massive margins, unfortunately, I don't know that...so I could also lose everything in the process. The market went down today...so what. As an investor that has more than a decade experience, I've seen this multiple times already. When markets crash, that's when you buy. When markets rise, you reap the benefits of the stupid buying something at 100 that they wanted no part of at 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Good post. Why all the national doom and gloom articles today, though, after what happened on Wall st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 05:30 PM) Good post. Why all the national doom and gloom articles today, though, after what happened on Wall st? We only had the biggest single day loss since Oct 08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 04:57 PM) What do you all think of what happened on Wall Street today? Reading the yahoo article it says most are convinced we are in for another recession. Wow. If businesses are going to be laying off tons of people again, will the economy ever recover? Are we looking at the biggest depressionary period in u.s. history?? Is it coming soon? YES. The 2009 low will look good compared to THE LOW. I think 20-30% lower than the 666 2009 low. I think Timberlake should do a song called "Bernanke in a box." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 QUOTE (jenksfart @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 05:03 PM) buy the dip You're for sale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (jenksfart @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 05:03 PM) buy the dip Do you catch falling knives too? Confucius say picking bottoms= Stinky fingers Edited August 5, 2011 by Cknolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 07:45 PM) You're for sale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 QUOTE (Cknolls @ Aug 4, 2011 -> 07:45 PM) Do you catch falling knives too? Confucius say picking bottoms= Stinky fingers I like "people who pick bottoms get s*** on their fingers" version personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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