Financial News

[kapkomet]

As expected, we went over the magic line. 10.2%. Total UE including underemployed and not looking for work is at 17%.

 

Bad bits: Big rise in people out of work more than 6 months (record), 22nd straight month of shedding jobs (record), average work week stable (bad because no more hours being put on for existing employees, which is a growth indicator).

 

Good bits: Number of jobs lost fell again and has done so for a few months, and temp jobs jumped (temp jobs usually come before FT jobs)

 

My additional take: We need small business to get this thing going. We need to put them in a better position to get credit in loans, but tax credits in targeted industries or even blanket ones would also help.

Temp jobs = holiday.

[NorthSideSox72]

I have a question about the UE at 17%. I'll take live examples of my family and I'm curious who would count in the 17% number.

 

- My grandmother in a nursing home

- My father who retired from AA and is on a pension

- My mother who swears she wants a job (but doesn't really try) and tutors kids on the side for cash

- My brother-in-law who went back to school for his college degree after being a minor league baseball player

- My wife's aunt/uncle, who works part time as a school cafeteria worker and bus driver (who dont want to work more hours or they'll fall off unemployment benefits)

 

Who counts and who doesn't?

Its all a little fuzzy to me, but here are my best guesses from what I know:

 

--Grandmother is considered retired, so she's not in the calculated population

--Same with father

--Mother falls into total UE, but maybe not reported UE (the 10.2% number), depending on various things

--Not sure on the brother-in-law - if he's a full time student, probably isn't in the population pool for either calculation

--Last one, no idea

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Temp jobs = holiday.

Seasonally adjusted, from what I saw. Also, given the economy, I doubt many places are already taking on new staff for the holidays. I think the number is more reflective of companies having laid off a bunch, or not hired for open positions, and doing so long enough, they realize they really need some things done. They just don't want to gamble on the future, so they go temp, for now.

 

 

[jasonxctf]

Its all a little fuzzy to me, but here are my best guesses from what I know:

 

--Grandmother is considered retired, so she's not in the calculated population

--Same with father

--Mother falls into total UE, but maybe not reported UE (the 10.2% number), depending on various things

--Not sure on the brother-in-law - if he's a full time student, probably isn't in the population pool for either calculation

--Last one, no idea

 

its interesting, I just wrote down all of the immediate members of my wife and my family. (25 in total) Of the 25, 9 are working full time jobs. 16 are not. Most of the 16 who dont work full time jobs don't either because they are too old, too young, too lazy, homemakers or students.

 

Oh yeah, and of the 9 full-time workers, only 2 are over the age of 30.

Edited November 6, 2009 by jasonxctf

[southsider2k5]

The important part is actively looking for work. That is what technically makes you unemployed. The different calculations are based off of whether you are still receving funds from the unemployment insurance fund.

[Rex Kickass]

So when the jobs picture begins to improve, which looks like probably early first quarter, assuming the trend continues, the U6 number should start going down, but the U3 number should spike - as people begin to actively seek work, no?

[mr_genius]

As expected, we went over the magic line. 10.2%. Total UE including underemployed and not looking for work is at 17%.

 

the U6 rate does not include underemployment in terms of having a lousy job you are more qualified for, but does include working part time and looking for full time work. so like, for example, you work 10 hours a week at Burger King you are not in the 10.2 rate, but you are in the 17% U6.

Edited November 6, 2009 by mr_genius

[NorthSideSox72]

Apprently the UE jumps and moderating internals were not a surprise to the markets, as they are actually slightly up right now.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

the U6 rate does not include underemployment in terms of having a lousy job you are more qualified for, but does include working part time and looking for full time work. so like, for example, you work 10 hours a week at Burger King you are not in the 10.2 rate, but you are in the 17% U6.

Yeah, that's what I thought.

 

Also, I could swear you said "hardees" originally, then changed it to "burger king" when I went to reply. Are you worried about burger snobs?

 

[mr_genius]

Yeah, that's what I thought.

 

Also, I could swear you said "hardees" originally, then changed it to "burger king" when I went to reply. Are you worried about burger snobs?

 

i forgot if there were even Hardees in chicago so i decided to change it. i've been in Springfield for a little too long i think. i don't even hate the cubs anymore, i hate the cardinals now.

Edited November 6, 2009 by mr_genius

[mr_genius]

Temp jobs = holiday.

 

i would imagine holiday spending is going to be a complete bust. could wreck some retailers if they have really low sales.

 

solution? Macy's bailout.

Edited November 6, 2009 by mr_genius

[jasonxctf]

probably not Macy's since they just posted their first quarterly profit in over a year and was upgraded by all of the analysts.

 

From 11/6

 

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Retail stocks rose on Friday, a day after retailers reported their best monthly sales in over a year. Macy's Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!m/quotes/nls/m (M 19.14, +1.12, +6.22%) led the gainers after the department store operator was upgraded to overweight from neutral by J.P. Morgan.

[mr_genius]

probably not Macy's since they just posted their first quarterly profit in over a year

From 11/6

 

a year since a profit? poor macy's. i grant thee a bailout.

[Chisoxfn]

The state of California is about to help itself to an interest free loan, out of its citizens paychecks. Merry Christmas!

 

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-stat...0,2028140.story

I realize its small and I get the money back, but this has put me over the top. I'm so f***ing frustrated with how the state is ran and I'm absolutely appalled at how they can do this with no consequences. The sad thing is most of California's don't know this is even the case.

 

The dumbasses can't manage a budget to save there lives so they pull into our pockets and effectively screw up our budgets.

 

I'm not going to feel the 25-30 bucks a month I lose, but still, what a bunch of bulls***. Its sickening and I'm scared at the precedent that was set.

[Chisoxfn]

In theory, California is ultimately saving taxpayers money by not having those same taxpayers paying interest to whomever Cal would borrow from. The difference is the taxpayers (voters) get to see it. If lawmakers borrowed from another source, chances are no one would know, or care. So for transparency in government fans, this is probably a nice touch.

 

Better, why not cut back on spending, which is basically what they are asking some taxpayers to do.

They had to go to this alternative because we voted against there stupid ass bond bills cause they were essentially junk bonds that would have had the government paying ridiculous interest rates. On top of that, I'm also sick and tired of a state that can't manage a deficit and gets off budget by billions. Its sad to think that they are like 100000% more accurate this time around and still need a free loan from tax-payers like myself.

[Chisoxfn]

Governments don't know how to cut back on spending, because that ultimately means they have to lay off all the people they hired on that they didn't really need -- which is equivalent to throwing votes in the opponents basket. Getting reelected is more important than doing the right thing for your state/country.

You know what....when the economy gets bad, big business shrinks...you know what, the government needs to shrink. I realize government jobs are supposed to be cake, etc, etc, but at some point in time, you got to cut pay, layoff people, etc. Its just the nature of what happens when revenues drop.

[Chisoxfn]

Well that, and the largest recession in like 80 years.

 

All states have had huge cuts in their tax receipts. Its not like California is on an island there.

Cali has been hit harder due to how much it relied on property taxes, but they completely mis-managed things here and put themselves in a dire situation. Not to mention the whole spend no matter what policy that forces government to always get bigger.

 

The state makes the airline industry looking like the greatest ran industry in the world.

[Chisoxfn]

No, they are only concerned with retaining office. And this does not seem like a good way to retain office. But shame on ALL voters in Cally if they re-elect ANY of these boobs.

You are giving way too much credit to the majority of the voters in this state. The elected officials here by and large are an embarassment.

[Balta1701]

They had to go to this alternative because we voted against there stupid ass bond bills cause they were essentially junk bonds that would have had the government paying ridiculous interest rates. On top of that, I'm also sick and tired of a state that can't manage a deficit and gets off budget by billions. Its sad to think that they are like 100000% more accurate this time around and still need a free loan from tax-payers like myself.

Frankly, I'm glad I'm escaping this state. The state's government is such a mess that it really hurts the rest of the state. And that's not just talking about the tax levels or prop 13 or prop 8 or anything like that, even small stuff like the water issues...that's not an issue of not enough water, it's an issue of no political will to solve it.

[Chisoxfn]

Frankly, I'm glad I'm escaping this state. The state's government is such a mess that it really hurts the rest of the state. And that's not just talking about the tax levels or prop 13 or prop 8 or anything like that, even small stuff like the water issues...that's not an issue of not enough water, it's an issue of no political will to solve it.

When this was announced, I literally was like, I need to move. The problem is in this economy it would be a bad time to and I won't lie, it would be really hard to leave the only place I've lived.

 

We have our families here all of our friends (with the exception of the yokals I kick it with from Soxtalk when I'm in Chitown) and I know everything. The fiance will be in her nursing program, but my paycheck would certainly go a lot farther elsewhere (a home as opposed to a townhome that will be tough enough to manage, etc).

 

And our tax rate sucks too. Paying damn near 10% on everything I purchase is pretty ridiculous too.

[Balta1701]

And our tax rate sucks too. Paying damn near 10% on everything I purchase is pretty ridiculous too.

You get that back if you buy a multi-million dollar house.

[southsider2k5]

I realize its small and I get the money back, but this has put me over the top. I'm so f***ing frustrated with how the state is ran and I'm absolutely appalled at how they can do this with no consequences. The sad thing is most of California's don't know this is even the case.

 

The dumbasses can't manage a budget to save there lives so they pull into our pockets and effectively screw up our budgets.

 

I'm not going to feel the 25-30 bucks a month I lose, but still, what a bunch of bulls***. Its sickening and I'm scared at the precedent that was set.

 

Illinois doesn't sound so bad now, does it?

[Balta1701]

Illinois doesn't sound so bad now, does it?

Your governor may be a felon, but at least he knew what he was doing.

[southsider2k5]

Your governor may be a felon, but at least he knew what he was doing.

 

Hey watch it... my governor isn't a felon AND he knows what he is doing...

[Balta1701]

Hey watch it... my governor isn't a felon

Yet.