Financial News

[southsider2k5]

Would be a great thing for the recovery of the American job market.

 

Or another bond buy, which isn't.

[NorthSideSox72]

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/0...-to-8-3-percent

 

edit: private added 257k, 243 net job gains. November revised upward to 157,000 added (previously at 100k) and december slightly upward to 203k up from 200.

If the recovery keeps up a pace like the past few months, or better, for most of 2012, the election will be a no contest win for Obama.

 

[bmags]

If the recovery keeps up a pace like the past few months, or better, for most of 2012, the election will be a no contest win for Obama.

and frankly, if local and state governments could move in the positive (which is going to take a while for the revenues to go up) that would be huge, because I can't remember the last jobs report that had additional public jobs added along with private growth.

 

But this was a fantastic jobs number, especially with it's breadth throughout the industries.

[Y2HH]

If the recovery keeps up a pace like the past few months, or better, for most of 2012, the election will be a no contest win for Obama.

 

I've been telling people this for months upon months. If the economy remains in recovery up until election day, Obama wins easily. If, however, the economy falls flat on it's face and we have another financial meltdown, he's in big trouble regardless of who's running against him.

[SuperSteve]

Despite the Fed saying otherwise, the Fed Funds have priced in a 100% chance of a 50 bps rate increase by the end of 2013.

I do not agree with this. Where do you see it priced in? All of the bank commentary I have read is expecting more like a 25 bp increase around Q2 of 2014. The real question that arises is what Fed Presidents have voting rights in 2013. Right now it's a dovish Fed. If more hawks rotate in for 2013, it's possible but im not sure who has voting rights next year.

[SuperSteve]

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/0...-to-8-3-percent

 

edit: private added 257k, 243 net job gains. November revised upward to 157,000 added (previously at 100k) and december slightly upward to 203k up from 200.

The real question is how many people fell off from being counted.

[mr_genius]

The real question is how many people fell off from being counted.

 

very true. also, the weak job gains do not even cover new entries to the job market. but, according to Obama, the 13 million unemployed are mere 'speed bumps' on his way to victory.

[mr_genius]

But this was a fantastic jobs number

 

it really isn't, when you think about it correctly

[Balta1701]

it really isn't, when you think about it correctly

Correct.

[Balta1701]

The real question is how many people fell off from being counted.

You realize this isn't hard to find right?

[SuperSteve]

You realize this isn't hard to find right?

Yep, too lazy on my iPad. I'll post to it shortly.

[Balta1701]

Yep, too lazy on my iPad. I'll post to it shortly.

Then I'll use the "even harder to type on iPhone" excuse rather than finding it.

 

Really is interesting to me that te employment to population ratio never really recovered after the 2001 recession.

[SuperSteve]

1.2 million people fell off the unemployment rolls. Participation rate is 63.7%. Government jobs fell 14k, manufacturing rose 50k, construction rose 21k, trade and transport rose 37k, business services rose 70k, education and health rose 36k, leisure and hospitality rose 44k. Overtime hours increased to 3.4 ours with manufacturing hours rising to 40.9. The birth/death model had a net adjustment of -367k. Potential non-farm increase could have been 600k without the birth/death adjustment.

 

ISM index of nonmanufacturing activity rose from 53 to 56.8 from December to January.

 

 

Jacobsen of Wells Fargo viewed the reports as positive and genuine. I have read other color pleasantly surprised with the non-farm numbers. An interesting piece from one of them was the 2010 census changes. 671k women were added to the labor force while 413k men were subtracted. Over 1 million Asians were added, over 1.3 millions Hispanics were added, over 400k blacks were added while over 1 million whites were subtracted.

 

 

*please note I simply compiled the data from commentary from a couple banks today.

[southsider2k5]

I do not agree with this. Where do you see it priced in? All of the bank commentary I have read is expecting more like a 25 bp increase around Q2 of 2014. The real question that arises is what Fed Presidents have voting rights in 2013. Right now it's a dovish Fed. If more hawks rotate in for 2013, it's possible but im not sure who has voting rights next year.

 

They were talking about it on CBNC

 

[southsider2k5]

The real question is how many people fell off from being counted.

 

150k

[Balta1701]

Fun.

Even as the Securities and Exchange Commission has stepped up its investigations of Wall Street in the last decade, the agency has repeatedly allowed the biggest firms to avoid punishments specifically meant to apply to fraud cases.

 

By granting exemptions to laws and regulations that act as a deterrent to securities fraud, the S.E.C. has let financial giants like JPMorganChase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America continue to have advantages reserved for the most dependable companies, making it easier for them to raise money from investors, for example, and to avoid liability from lawsuits if their financial forecasts turn out to be wrong.

 

An analysis by The New York Times of S.E.C. investigations over the last decade found nearly 350 instances where the agency has given big Wall Street institutions and other financial companies a pass on those or other sanctions. Those instances also include waivers permitting firms to underwrite certain stock and bond sales and manage mutual fund portfolios.

 

JPMorganChase, for example, has settled six fraud cases in the last 13 years, including one with a $228 million settlement last summer, but it has obtained at least 22 waivers, in part by arguing that it has “a strong record of compliance with securities laws.” Bank of America and Merrill Lynch, which merged in 2009, have settled 15 fraud cases and received at least 39 waivers.

 

Only about a dozen companies — Dell, General Electric and United Rentals among them — have felt the full force of the law after issuing misleading information about their businesses. Citigroup was the only major Wall Street bank among them. In 11 years, it settled six fraud cases and received 25 waivers before it lost most of its privileges in 2010.

 

By granting those waivers, the S.E.C. allowed Wall Street firms to have powerful advantages, securities experts and former regulators say. The institutions remained protected under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which makes it easier to avoid class-action shareholder lawsuits.

 

And the companies continue to use rules that let them instantly raise money publicly, without waiting weeks for government approvals. Without the waivers, the companies could not move as quickly as rivals that had not settled fraud charges to sell stocks or bonds when market conditions were most favorable.

 

Other waivers allowed Wall Street firms that had settled fraud or lesser charges to continue managing mutual funds and to help small, private companies raise money from investors — two types of business from which they otherwise would be excluded.

 

“The ramifications of losing those exemptions are enormous to these firms,” David S. Ruder, a former S.E.C. chairman, said in an interview. Without the waivers, agreeing to settle charges of securities fraud “might have vast repercussions affecting the ability of a firm to continue to stay in business,” he said.

 

 

....

But the repeated granting of waivers suggests that the agency does in fact have tools it often does not use, critics say. Close to half of the waivers went to repeat offenders — Wall Street firms that had settled previous fraud charges by agreeing never again to violate the very laws that the S.E.C. was now saying that they had broken.

[southsider2k5]

Obviously we need more laws...

[Balta1701]

The most recent deadline was supposed to be today.

A five-hour meeting between prime minister Lucas Papademos and the leaders of the three parties supporting the government ended without agreement on Sunday.

 

Pasok leader George Papandreou, main opposition New Democracy party leader Antonis Samaras and Popular Orthodox Rally (Laos) party leader George Karatzaferis failed to reach agreement with Papademos concerning the demands of the EU-IMF troika for private-sector wage cuts, further pension cuts, large-scale firing of public-sector staff and major downsizing of the public sector.

 

In statements after he emerged from the meeting, Karatzaferis indicated that it will most likely continue on Monday and said he did not want to contribute to the start of "a revolution caused by pauperisation" that would then sweep all of Europe.

 

Main opposition New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras made no statements as he left the meeting but indicated the deadlock reached during the meeting during a brief statement to television cameras when he returned to ND's headquarters.

 

"For the first time, a negotiation is taking place. The country cannot stand more recession. I am fighting with every means to prevent this," he said, confirming that the negotiations will continue on Monday.

 

An announcement issued by the prime minister's press office later on Sunday night also confirmed that his talks with the party leaders will continue on the following day.

[SuperSteve]

150k

What number are you referring to? I've read multiple places referring to 1.2 million falling off in January, leading to a ~63% participation rate.

[SuperSteve]

The most recent deadline was supposed to be today.

I honestly cannot see any way to save Greece at this point. They're terminally ill.

[southsider2k5]

What number are you referring to? I've read multiple places referring to 1.2 million falling off in January, leading to a ~63% participation rate.

 

The change in number of people leaving the workplace was 150k higher than the number leaving during the previous U4 number.

[StrangeSox]

 

couldn't find one that also had u6

Edited February 6, 2012 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

Here's a better one:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-k...5U5tQ_blog.html

 

[southsider2k5]

 

couldn't find one that also had u6

 

U6 was 15.1% down .1.

 

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

[SuperSteve]

Not seasonally adjusted, we have lost 3 million jobs the past two months. The 1.2 number I provided is not seasonally adjusted for January.