Financial News

[southsider2k5]

Why do you say that their economy was going that way regardless? Much like the rest of the continent, they had a huge slump in 2008-2009, but they had basically moved back to slow growth in 2010, just like much of the continent...then they began substantial budget cuts. And just like in the US, once a country has contracted that much, it ought to be quite hard to make it start contracting again, because there shouldn't be another shock to be delivered.

 

 

Furthermore, they also had their debt under control, at 65% of GDP, before 2008.

 

to me it looks like a country that has spent essentially the last decade lagging the rest of the continent, and is continuing to do so now.

[Balta1701]

to me it looks like a country that has spent essentially the last decade lagging the rest of the continent, and is continuing to do so now.

But also fell less hard than the rest of the continnet

[southsider2k5]

But also fell less hard than the rest of the continnet

 

Probably due to less way to fall. Honestly from that chart it screams lack of investment, probably due to too many funds tied up in debt.

[Balta1701]

Probably due to less way to fall. Honestly from that chart it screams lack of investment, probably due to too many funds tied up in debt.

Which is belied by the the fact that Portugal had the largest capital inflows of any country in Europe over the last decade after they joined the Eurozone. If anything, Portugal was actually overbuilt, substantially, by the end of the last expansion.

 

Post 2008, you're entirely correct that there is an issue with lack of investment, because capital has switched directions and flowed out of the perceived to be riskier peripheral countries and poured into safer assets (like Treasuries and Germany's debt). This of course is not solved by shrinking Portugal's economy.

[southsider2k5]

Which is belied by the the fact that Portugal had the largest capital inflows of any country in Europe over the last decade after they joined the Eurozone. If anything, Portugal was actually overbuilt, substantially, by the end of the last expansion.

 

Post 2008, you're entirely correct that there is an issue with lack of investment, because capital has switched directions and flowed out of the perceived to be riskier peripheral countries and poured into safer assets (like Treasuries and Germany's debt). This of course is not solved by shrinking Portugal's economy.

 

All that (supposedly) and they still underperformed the rest of the continent for a decade, when they were supposedly healthy.

[Balta1701]

Lowest 1 week Jobless claims number since BearStearns went down.

[StrangeSox]

The IGM Forum at UofC-Booth took a poll of economists on whether the ARRA resulted in lower unemployment at the end of 2010.

 

80% agree, 2% uncertain and 4% (two) disagree.

 

Results on the second question, whether the benefits will outweigh the costs long-term, are more mixed but still show a majority agreeing and only 12% disagreeing.

[Balta1701]

The IGM Forum at UofC-Booth took a poll of economists on whether the ARRA resulted in lower unemployment at the end of 2010.

 

80% agree, 2% uncertain and 4% (two) disagree.

 

Results on the second question, whether the benefits will outweigh the costs long-term, are more mixed but still show a majority agreeing and only 12% disagreeing.

Great. So almost everyone can agree that spending $600 billion will create at least 2 jobs.

[StrangeSox]

More on the productivity, wage and COL gaps:

 

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economis...-come-from.html

[Balta1701]

More on the productivity, wage and COL gaps:

 

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economis...-come-from.html

Meh, I wish there was a better discussion there.

[southsider2k5]

Not sure exactly where to put this, but this surprised me a bit.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2012/02/27/are...world/?mod=e2fb

 

Are China’s Politicians the Richest in the World?

 

Congress has come under increasing attack for its wealth. But U.S. Congresspeople are poo,r compared to China’s political leaders.

 

According to the Hurun Report, as cited by Bloomberg, the 70 richest delegates in China’s National People’s Congress have a combined net worth of 565.8 billion yuan or $89.8 billion. That’s more than 10 times the combined net worths of all the members of Congress, the Supreme Court and the President. (Their collective riches are only $7.5 billion.)

 

What’s more, China’s politicians are getting richer more rapidly. Last year, their combined wealth grew by $11.5 billion, or about 15%.

 

For those who think this growing wealth reflects a rising tide that’s lifting all Chinese boats, consider this: Per capita annual income in China is still about $2,425.

 

According to Bloomberg, the Hurun report “points to the challenges that China’s new generation of leaders, to be named this year, faces in countering a rise in social unrest fueled by illegal land grabs and corruption.”

 

The question is whether this skyrocketing “princeling” wealth will touch off social unrest or real protests. A kind of “Occupy the Great Hall” movement.

 

Many Western China watchers point out that as long as the overall economy keep growing and generating jobs, China won’t erupt in class warfare. What’s more, government officials are currently making a huge show of cracking down on corruption, and they maintain tight control over communications and the media.

 

Yet China seems to support an old adage: In the U.S. people get rich to get into politics. In other countries, they get into politics to get rich.

 

Do you think the wealth of China’s politicians will create an “Occupy”-style backlash?

[StrangeSox]

Dow closed above 13000 for the first time since 2008.

[southsider2k5]

God am I glad Barney Frank is retiring. No more listening to him will be nice.

[southsider2k5]

God am I glad Barney Frank is retiring. No more listening to him will be nice.

 

Bernanke just has a look on his face that screams "I wish i could smack the s*** out of you."

[southsider2k5]

And now Ron Paul get the mic. Ugh.

[Rex Kickass]

God am I glad Barney Frank is retiring. No more listening to him will be nice.

I just hope whichever out of touch old person that will speak in his place has better fitting dentures.

[Balta1701]

CME Group now saying publically, MF Global is in violation of the CFTC and CME rules pertaining to seperation of customer and proprietary funds. This was not an accounting mistake - the money was mixed. People will be going to jail.

 

 

Yes, there is a big problem here. And it has to be at the executive level.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/79368356/

 

Great insight on the MF case. It is pretty certain that massive fraud and securities violations happened. The most amazing part is that Man used the old Refco unit to commit the fraud. They have been apart of some crazy stuff over the years. Remember they were the ones involved in the Hillary cattle trading, along with their own blow up in the Ruble and subsequent shell game of hide the losses until they got busted for securities fraud and sold to MF. One thing I would bet on is that Corzine is going to jail.

 

 

I'll believe it if I see it, but if you're right, that would mean at least 1 former Goldman exec is finally there.

 

 

Nothing personal against the selected posts, just the first few that I saw on the appropriate page insisting that criminal prosecutions would happen and then me expressing skepticism. So yeah.

Federal authorities are struggling to find evidence to support a criminal case stemming from the collapse of MF Global, even after a federal grand jury in Chicago has issued subpoenas.

 

'...

The subpoenas by the grand jury in Chicago were disclosed by the CME Group, MF Global’s chief regulator, in a securities filing on Tuesday. But the grand jury, according to the person involved in the case, has yet to hear any evidence on the case — a sign that the investigation has yet to bear fruit.

 

Still, it is early in the investigation, and regulators and others have yet to finish plowing through the mountain of documentation they recently received from the company. In addition, authorities have yet to interview key witnesses — including a person who is believed to have transferred client funds in the firm’s final days.

 

The inability to bring a criminal case would certainly disappoint thousands of clients, including farmers, traders and hedge fund managers, who are still without access to at least a third of their money.

 

The government is still hopeful it can file a civil suit against the company, people close to the case said, though doing so against a bankrupt firm with a long line of creditors could be seen as more symbolic than substantive.

 

Such a case would most likely center on the firm’s failure to safeguard client money, a cardinal sin in the world of futures firms. The penalty for improperly dipping into customer money is a roughly $140,000 fine, equal to about a thousandth of the overall shortfall that clients are enduring.

[southsider2k5]

Nothing personal against the selected posts, just the first few that I saw on the appropriate page insisting that criminal prosecutions would happen and then me expressing skepticism. So yeah.

 

There are still some pieces to come together. They haven't even hit the easiest parts.

[mr_genius]

God am I glad Barney Frank is retiring. No more listening to him will be nice.

 

He'll still be around on TV, lobbying for more wall street bailouts, ect.

[southsider2k5]

He'll still be around on TV, lobbying for more wall street bailouts, ect.

 

I hate you, though not as much as Elmer Frank.

[NorthSideSox72]

There are still some pieces to come together. They haven't even hit the easiest parts.

Yup. Plus the nature of the regulatory data being so convoluted and poorly/inconsistently structured, makes the job harder. But they haven't even gotten through most of the docs yet. Give it time.

 

[southsider2k5]

Yup. Plus the nature of the regulatory data being so convoluted and poorly/inconsistently structured, makes the job harder. But they haven't even gotten through most of the docs yet. Give it time.

 

Much like the lying charge for insider traders, they will get people for misrepresenting the company's financial position in the final days when they were looking to try to sell to Jefferies, Interactive, or anyone else who would listen.

 

And as for the "time" argument, let me put it this way... They still haven't figured out the "Flash Crash" officially.

[NorthSideSox72]

Much like the lying charge for insider traders, they will get people for misrepresenting the company's financial position in the final days when they were looking to try to sell to Jefferies, Interactive, or anyone else who would listen.

 

And as for the "time" argument, let me put it this way... They still haven't figured out the "Flash Crash" officially.

We've talked about this before. Consolidate financial markets regulatory bodies, create data warehouse systems that log each trade event temporally as a constantly running catalog (will require some tech coordination with exchanges), and then create a similar warehouse for money movement for every regulated firm covering all regulated areas. Instead of turning in audit reports and a bunch of paper, they just have to run software to scrape and pull data for the reg bodies each day, and then your audits are also much simpler.

 

[southsider2k5]

We've talked about this before. Consolidate financial markets regulatory bodies, create data warehouse systems that log each trade event temporally as a constantly running catalog (will require some tech coordination with exchanges), and then create a similar warehouse for money movement for every regulated firm covering all regulated areas. Instead of turning in audit reports and a bunch of paper, they just have to run software to scrape and pull data for the reg bodies each day, and then your audits are also much simpler.

 

That is what the TRF was supposed to do.

[StrangeSox]