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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 14, 2012 -> 02:54 PM)
It's a short-hand dismissal of a bad argument that's been made for years, yes. There's no reason to point out in detail that it remains a poor argument every time it's brought up.

 

I hope when hyperinflation hits, it only affects you.

 

How do you like that?

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that's pretty silly. I don't think hyperinflation will actually hit, but when bond rates do start to creep up as the economy recovers, we can focus on the deficit if that's what politicians are actually concerned about (I don't think they are, but that's a separate issue).

 

In the mean time, I'll continue to ignore bond vigilante warnings that have been made (incorrectly) for years.

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If hyperinflation were about to hit, I don't think you would be seeing this current change in the fed you are seeing now. But when inflation starts to occur due to a recovery, let's not pull the plug on the recovery.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 14, 2012 -> 03:39 PM)
If hyperinflation were about to hit, I don't think you would be seeing this current change in the fed you are seeing now. But when inflation starts to occur due to a recovery, let's not pull the plug on the recovery.

 

Here's the Fed Vice Chair laying out his support for explicit guideposts on when to start shifting Fed policy. Not exactly the same thing as federal budget deficits but definitely related.

 

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economis...guideposts.html

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 14, 2012 -> 03:44 PM)
That's not the point I'm making, and it's pretty silly to take it that way. The point I'm making is an anti-austerity point that we should not be obsessed with budget deficits in the middle of a recession precisely because unemployment (much more important) is low and interest rates are essentially free for the government. Now is the time to borrow to get our economy going again and to do things we should be doing anyway like infrastructure. Nowhere in that argument is the claim that interest rates will never rise or that we should run deficits in perpetuity (though Modern Monetary Theorists would argue that we should). It is an argument about priorities.

 

 

We are not in a recession. They say it ended a couple years ago.

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 14, 2012 -> 09:35 PM)
Well the Bond Vigilantes talk has been going on since 2009 at least

And what you conveniently and repeatedly forget is that the people saying that, have been very clear that it will happen once the economy starts growing at a strong rate for a few quarters. That hasn't happened yet.

 

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 14, 2012 -> 02:48 PM)
conservative economics has been decrying that hyperinflation is right around the corner literally for years. Saying "any year now" is not saying that it'll never happen, it's saying that it's not going to happen when the economy is still s*** and we have more pressing issues to worry about.

 

In response to the left wingers who keep telling us that an economic recovery is right around the corner, if we just keep spending more money that we don't have.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 15, 2012 -> 08:07 AM)
And what you conveniently and repeatedly forget is that the people saying that, have been very clear that it will happen once the economy starts growing at a strong rate for a few quarters. That hasn't happened yet.

Some of them have. Others have insisted that hyperinflation will kick in within months, and they say this every few months.

Edited by StrangeSox
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I know this came up way back when the banks were signing that bogus settlement agreement with the various states' attorneys over their fraudulent foreclosures, but turns out that the banks will be using investor money to write down mortgages they may or may not own:

 

In a surprising revelation, the Charlotte, N.C., lender also said that more than half of the nearly $5 billion in principal reductions will be paid for by investors, not the bank itself. That matters little to delinquent borrowers who saw their monthly payments reduced, but it is sure to anger investors who have argued that they should not have to be punished for banks’ mistakes.

 

Whether B of A’s report is indicative of progress other banks are making in complying with the landmark settlement won’t be known until Joseph A. Smith, the settlement’s monitor, issues his own progress report on Monday.

 

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/11/que...e-to-roost.html

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Word out of Washington is s***heads trying to kick can into 2013, i.e. sequestration. Futes rally. Looks like opportunity to once again sell a rally. While this selloff is blamed on tax selling, I believe in addition to that, there may be a large hedgy going belly up. Too much complacency in the VIX. Big moves, i.e. crashes do not occur from overbought mkts. And everyone on the boob tube is saying this mkt is oversold. Bingo. that is when it is most dangerous. I think we test 1322-25, and if no bounce there we test 1270-75 area.

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QUOTE (Cknolls @ Nov 16, 2012 -> 08:12 AM)
Word out of Washington is s***heads trying to kick can into 2013, i.e. sequestration. Futes rally. Looks like opportunity to once again sell a rally. While this selloff is blamed on tax selling, I believe in addition to that, there may be a large hedgy going belly up. Too much complacency in the VIX. Big moves, i.e. crashes do not occur from overbought mkts. And everyone on the boob tube is saying this mkt is oversold. Bingo. that is when it is most dangerous. I think we test 1322-25, and if no bounce there we test 1270-75 area.

 

Dead cat bounce?

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 16, 2012 -> 09:06 AM)
Mythbusters should test how much a cat carcass actually bounces.

 

I'd watch that one.

 

Also, speaking of dead cats, Hostess is requesting liquidation and shutdown. Too bad they couldn't make it a little longer, they would have made assloads of money in Colorado and Washington.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 16, 2012 -> 09:09 AM)
I'd watch that one.

 

Also, speaking of dead cats, Hostess is requesting liquidation and shutdown. Too bad they couldn't make it a little longer, they would have made assloads of money in Colorado and Washington.

 

This was from back in September:

 

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-09...-brian-driscoll

 

Approval means another round of cuts. Wage compensation would immediately drop 8 percent for everyone, even management, but with the promise of a 3 percent bump the next year of the five-year deal. There would be sharp reductions in pension plan payments.

 

Rejection means an expedited sell-by date for the maker and distributor of foodstuffs of your childhood lunchbox: Hostess Twinkies, Ho Hos, Cup Cakes, Ding Dongs, Sno Balls, Donettes and pies; Butternut, Holsum, Home Pride and Wonder breads; Dolly Madison Zingers and Donut Gems and Drake's snack cakes, among other favorites.

 

There's no way to sugarcoat it.

 

"I plan to liquidate it if they vote no. That plan has been on the shelf for months," Hostess chief executive Gregory Rayburn said the other day after meeting with bakery workers in Schiller Park, birthplace of the Twinkie 82 years ago, as part of a national "town hall" tour of the Texas-based company's far-flung operations. The company filed for Chapter 11 protection in January.

 

"This is their second time through and that's what drives a lot of the frustration and the anger, because they've been through concessions before and we're back in bankruptcy," Rayburn explained in an empty office before catching a flight to Portland, Maine. "Some people will vote no because they're angry and they're just done. … But I don't think I should be painting some rosy pictures because they've been through this drill."

 

Hostess is at a crossroads because of problems not confined to your local grocer's shelves. Detroit was clobbered by them too: high labor and pension costs, plus ownership that failed to innovate. Where's my Hostess Ho Ho ice cream?

 

If the deal goes through, Ripplewood Holdings, the New York private equity firm that gained control of Hostess as it emerged from the first bankruptcy in 2009, would be out its $70 million investment.

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  • 2 weeks later...
QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 15, 2011 -> 02:00 PM)
That just isn't true. A significant firm went down, people will end up being prosecuted, count on it.

So yeah, I wasn't posting for the actual MF Global downfallaversary. Happy 1 full year of staying out of jail despite stealing a few billion dollars!

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 24, 2012 -> 12:23 PM)
Apparently it does pay to be a democrat.

 

Probably the front runner to be the newest Obama jobs czar. Put him in there with the outsourcers and anti-American extremists Obama has as job czars and he'll fit right in.

Edited by mr_genius
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 24, 2012 -> 12:08 PM)
So yeah, I wasn't posting for the actual MF Global downfallaversary. Happy 1 full year of staying out of jail despite stealing a few billion dollars!

Definitely taking too long. Still going to be some heads rolling.

 

The thing that bothers me is just how long it is taking to sift out the facts and prosecute. I still have no doubt it will happen. But this says a lot negative about the SEC/FINRA/CFTC capabilities, as well as the supposedly helpful regulations and rules about data integrity that obviously didn't work here.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 25, 2012 -> 06:30 PM)
Definitely taking too long. Still going to be some heads rolling.

 

The thing that bothers me is just how long it is taking to sift out the facts and prosecute. I still have no doubt it will happen. But this says a lot negative about the SEC/FINRA/CFTC capabilities, as well as the supposedly helpful regulations and rules about data integrity that obviously didn't work here.

(Post saved for the 2 year anniversary) :D

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