Financial News

[kapkomet]

The key sentence...

 

"We're not that far from a point where job gains will outweigh job losses, but that's not enough to reduce the unemployment rate," he said

 

So in other words, people still are getting laid off more than they are being hired, plus there are all of the new people entering who aren't able to collect unemployment and be counted.

And there's getting ready to be a s***load of those, even with all the extensions.

 

[mr_genius]

That's called protectionism, and it's not a very good idea. If we did that the world would cry foul -- as a matter of fact, they did when they started talking about the stimulus a long time ago.

 

The US is currently one of the least protectionist countries in the global economy. US corporations can't even open a department store in India, for example. The rest of the world had figured it out, as they have been out of the recession for a while and are actually seeing job gains. Free trade is great, if the countries you are dealing with are equal participants. Being subjected to open free trade, while your competition stacks the deck against you, is likely going to produce negative results for the majority of people living under the system. There is plenty of room to work out a solution that doesn't include being isolationist or on the other end of the spectrum, mad max Libertarian everyone for themself chaos.

 

Most of the rhetoric about protectionism is pretty hollow IMO. These countries aren't going to cut off trade with the US as they have major trade surpluses with us. And it's really important to keep in mind this isn't private money we are talking about going into these stimulus projects.

Edited December 19, 2009 by mr_genius

[kapkomet]

U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 2.2% annual rate from July through September, according to the government's third and final reading. It was the second time third-quarter GDP was revised lower. The government initially reported third-quarter GDP growth of 3.5%, then lowered it to 2.8%. In the second quarter, GDP contracted 0.7%. The latest figure was below Wall Street forecasts of 2.7% growth.

 

Imagine that.

[Y2HH]

The rest of the world had figured it out, as they have been out of the recession for a while and are actually seeing job gains.

 

I'd really hate to break this news to you, but the rest of the world isn't out of the recession, nor will they be until long after we are.

 

The worst is yet to come for them, which is what makes that statement even funnier. Let's see, with Greece nearing bankruptcy, the Euro has lost value over the last few weeks to the dollar, because investors know Greece is just the first. Many of the foreign countries that "figured it all out", invested billions into 3rd world nations in south america...who have basically told them, erm, sorry, but you're never getting that money back...

 

You know, it continues to baffle me why Americans generally tend to think Europeans and "the rest of the world" have everything figured out...when it's actually the opposite. They often wait until the US sets fiscal policy before setting their own, so they can better equip themselves in case the US were to take any sort of drastic action.

Edited December 22, 2009 by Y2HH

[kapkomet]

I'd really hate to break this news to you, but the rest of the world isn't out of the recession, nor will they be until long after we are.

 

The worst is yet to come for them, which is what makes that statement even funnier. Let's see, with Greece nearing bankruptcy, the Euro has lost value over the last few weeks to the dollar, because investors know Greece is just the first. Many of the foreign countries that "figured it all out", invested billions into 3rd world nations in south america...who have basically told them, erm, sorry, but you're never getting that money back...

 

You know, it continues to baffle me why Americans generally tend to think Europeans and "the rest of the world" have everything figured out...when it's actually the opposite. They often wait until the US sets fiscal policy before setting their own, so they can better equip themselves in case the US were to take any sort of drastic action.

Amen. That's part of my "global citizen" comment from yesterday. We have to be so much like everyone else that we tend to forget this is America, and I'd rather lead then follow.

[NorthSideSox72]

Amen. That's part of my "global citizen" comment from yesterday. We have to be so much like everyone else that we tend to forget this is America, and I'd rather lead then follow.

As stupid as it may be to think everyone else has it all figured out, its equally stupid to think that America has it all figured out. It never hurts to look around at your competition and look for some ideas to steal or use.

 

[kapkomet]

As stupid as it may be to think everyone else has it all figured out, its equally stupid to think that America has it all figured out. It never hurts to look around at your competition and look for some ideas to steal or use.

 

Yea, we're stealing ideas all right - the ones that history has proven to not work. There's a fine line between arrogance (I-bama) and confidence - and I want America to be confident, not arrogant.

[Y2HH]

Amen. That's part of my "global citizen" comment from yesterday. We have to be so much like everyone else that we tend to forget this is America, and I'd rather lead then follow.

 

Oh, add Spain to that soon to be bankrupt list, also. While we are at it...add the UK, too. The UK is living in fear of a credit rating cut right now since they're in the same boat as Spain and Greece.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/dec/10/u...edit-rating-cut

 

Things are NOT as rosy over there as Americans seem to think.

[kapkomet]

Common thread - utopian health care. DOH!.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Oh, add Spain to that soon to be bankrupt list, also. While we are at it...add the UK, too. The UK is living in fear of a credit rating cut right now since they're in the same boat as Spain and Greece.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/dec/10/u...edit-rating-cut

 

Things are NOT as rosy over there as Americans seem to think.

Just curious... who is it you guys think is saying that Europe is all rosy?

 

[Y2HH]

Just curious... who is it you guys think is saying that Europe is all rosy?

 

Mr Genius. In a post above he said how the rest of the world had it all figured out and that's why they're already out of the recession creating new jobs. I just don't know where he got that info...because the rest of the world wishes it was true. Europe included.

Edited December 22, 2009 by Y2HH

[Y2HH]

The rest of the world had figured it out, as they have been out of the recession for a while and are actually seeing job gains.

 

There.

[NorthSideSox72]

Mr Genius. In a post above he said how the rest of the world had it all figured out and that's why they're already out of the recession creating new jobs. I just don't know where he got that info...because the rest of the world wishes it was true. Europe included.

I think you need to get to know mr genius and his posts a little better. Not saying that as a slight against you, or him - just that... I think you need to know his posting style to understand what he's saying.

 

[Y2HH]

I think you need to get to know mr genius and his posts a little better. Not saying that as a slight against you, or him - just that... I think you need to know his posting style to understand what he's saying.

 

Maybe so...but that's pretty clear as day that he thinks the rest of the world has everything figured out and we suck.

[Cknolls]

You think there is any correlation in the farce passing the Senate and bonds getting hammered yesterday and follow through again today? No matter how hard the gov't tries to prop up the mkt, they WILL NOT be able to rig the bond mkt, and "they",traders, are giving hints as to where things are headed.

[jasonxctf]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/November-hom...set=&ccode=

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Home resales surged last month to the highest level in nearly three years, reflecting an extraordinary level of federal support that has pulled the housing market back from the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

 

Buyers were racing to complete their sales before the original expiration date of a tax credit for first-time buyers that was scheduled to expire Nov. 30. Last month, Congress decided to extend and expand the credit to ensure the housing market could sustain its recovery.

The Realtors estimated that about 2 million homebuyers have taken advantage of the credit so far and forecasts that another 2.4 million will use it by the middle of next year. First-time buyers made up about half of all transactions last month, driving sales up 44 percent above last year's levels, a record jump.

Sales are now up 46 percent from the bottom in January, but down 10 percent from the peak more than four years ago.

 

The median sales price was $172,600, down 4.3 percent from a year earlier, and up 0.2 percent from October.

 

"Things are stabilizing," said Pete Flint, chief executive of real estate Web site Trulia.com. "There is a significant amount of buyer interest out there."

 

November sales rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million, from a downwardly revised pace of 6.09 million in October.

 

Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 6.25 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

 

The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 1 percent to 3.5 million. That's a healthy 6.5 month supply at the current sales pace, the lowest level in three years.

 

Besides the existing tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers, homeowners who have lived in their current properties for at least five years can now claim a tax credit of up to $6,500 if they relocate. To qualify, buyers must sign a purchase agreement by April 30.

 

Postponing the deadline could mean sales will drop during the winter months and recover in the spring.

 

"Buyers have no sense of urgency now," said Gary DeRosa, an agent with ZipRealty Inc. in Seattle.

[Y2HH]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/November-hom...set=&ccode=

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Home resales surged last month to the highest level in nearly three years, reflecting an extraordinary level of federal support that has pulled the housing market back from the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

 

Buyers were racing to complete their sales before the original expiration date of a tax credit for first-time buyers that was scheduled to expire Nov. 30. Last month, Congress decided to extend and expand the credit to ensure the housing market could sustain its recovery.

The Realtors estimated that about 2 million homebuyers have taken advantage of the credit so far and forecasts that another 2.4 million will use it by the middle of next year. First-time buyers made up about half of all transactions last month, driving sales up 44 percent above last year's levels, a record jump.

Sales are now up 46 percent from the bottom in January, but down 10 percent from the peak more than four years ago.

 

The median sales price was $172,600, down 4.3 percent from a year earlier, and up 0.2 percent from October.

 

"Things are stabilizing," said Pete Flint, chief executive of real estate Web site Trulia.com. "There is a significant amount of buyer interest out there."

 

November sales rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million, from a downwardly revised pace of 6.09 million in October.

 

Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 6.25 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

 

The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 1 percent to 3.5 million. That's a healthy 6.5 month supply at the current sales pace, the lowest level in three years.

 

Besides the existing tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers, homeowners who have lived in their current properties for at least five years can now claim a tax credit of up to $6,500 if they relocate. To qualify, buyers must sign a purchase agreement by April 30.

 

Postponing the deadline could mean sales will drop during the winter months and recover in the spring.

 

"Buyers have no sense of urgency now," said Gary DeRosa, an agent with ZipRealty Inc. in Seattle.

 

I just bought my house in clearing about a month ago -- I'll be getting the 6,500 credit.

 

[Cknolls]

Yet no mention of the default rate on jumbo loans. HMMM. Housing has another leg down IMO. Rates are going nowhere but up, re-defaults are not getting better and the Fed floor will be removed soon. Housing stocks have run a long way, this would be a good area to look into for some short plays.

[NorthSideSox72]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/November-hom...set=&ccode=

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Home resales surged last month to the highest level in nearly three years, reflecting an extraordinary level of federal support that has pulled the housing market back from the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

 

Buyers were racing to complete their sales before the original expiration date of a tax credit for first-time buyers that was scheduled to expire Nov. 30. Last month, Congress decided to extend and expand the credit to ensure the housing market could sustain its recovery.

The Realtors estimated that about 2 million homebuyers have taken advantage of the credit so far and forecasts that another 2.4 million will use it by the middle of next year. First-time buyers made up about half of all transactions last month, driving sales up 44 percent above last year's levels, a record jump.

Sales are now up 46 percent from the bottom in January, but down 10 percent from the peak more than four years ago.

 

The median sales price was $172,600, down 4.3 percent from a year earlier, and up 0.2 percent from October.

 

"Things are stabilizing," said Pete Flint, chief executive of real estate Web site Trulia.com. "There is a significant amount of buyer interest out there."

 

November sales rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million, from a downwardly revised pace of 6.09 million in October.

 

Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 6.25 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

 

The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 1 percent to 3.5 million. That's a healthy 6.5 month supply at the current sales pace, the lowest level in three years.

 

Besides the existing tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers, homeowners who have lived in their current properties for at least five years can now claim a tax credit of up to $6,500 if they relocate. To qualify, buyers must sign a purchase agreement by April 30.

 

Postponing the deadline could mean sales will drop during the winter months and recover in the spring.

 

"Buyers have no sense of urgency now," said Gary DeRosa, an agent with ZipRealty Inc. in Seattle.

What I'd love to know is, what the % of home sales (existing) are normally first time buyers, versus now. If you had those ratios, you could determine how much of the bump is because of the tax credit, versus overall health of the market. That would be a better indicator in this case.

 

But in general, the continued rise in sales of existing homes, coupled with mostly declines in new home building and sales, and the fw months of pricing floor... are all positive signs for the market. Most people in the know seem to feel its stabilizing, and I'd tend to agree. The big question, still, is UE in 2010, and its effect on foreclosures. If UE stays pretty close to its current number (within say half a percent either way) for most of 2010, and (related) if the foreclosure spike that is on the horizon isn't monstrous, then I think we'll see a healthy, fairly stable housing market in 2010, and maybe even start seeing some solid growth late in the year.

 

Now, if UE jumps to 11%, and/or the increase in foreclosures is dramatic, then we'll see another down leg, though I think it won't be huge.

 

[kapkomet]

UE is going to stay "steady" as a s***ton of people fall off the radar.

[NorthSideSox72]

UE is going to stay "steady" as a s***ton of people fall off the radar.

I was using the core UE number there as a point of trend - same can be said for the more collective and complete numbers. They need to stay within a short distance of where they are right now, or else growth is unsustainable. So 10% +/- .5%, or 18% +/- 1%, take your pick.

 

[jasonxctf]

i think the first time home buyer % has probably been growing rapidly over the past 6-7 years.

 

When rates were low (and still are) and housing prices were consistently going up (in the past) it was insane to rent. I remember getting my first townhouse when I was 24. I was paying the same amount as my rented apartment but now could write off the mortgage interest/property taxes and get some equity in the place. It was a no brainer. Even though the market had softened when I sold (2006), I could have still sold the house for break even and made $ due to the tax rate savings.

[jasonxctf]

Yet no mention of the default rate on jumbo loans. HMMM. Housing has another leg down IMO. Rates are going nowhere but up, re-defaults are not getting better and the Fed floor will be removed soon. Housing stocks have run a long way, this would be a good area to look into for some short plays.

 

interesting report I saw the other day, related to defaults in small business leases/loans etc from Paynet.

 

The overall average of 30-day deliquencies was 4.22% of total accounts in September 2009. For comparison sake, it was 2.00% at its lowest point in April 2006, however the current % is still lower than any point in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002 or 2003. It got as high as 6.80% in January 2002.

 

The overall average of 90-day deliquencies was 1.40% of total accounts in September 2009. For comparison sake, it was 0.40% at its lowest point in April 2006, however the current % is still lower than any point in 2001, 2002 and the first half of 2003. It got as high as 2.20% in January 2002.

 

Overall, according to Paynet, the 30 day mark had its largest 1 month decrease since August 2004 and its first decline in 2009. The 90 day mark had its largest 1 month decrease since November 2003.

 

It's funny, I don't remember a "credit crisis" in 2000, 2001, etc when accounts were significantly late at rates nearly 1.5x the current level.

[NorthSideSox72]

While the re-sales of homes jump was 40% or so nationally for November, it was way bigger in Chicago - 71%, according to Crain's. That's good for us here.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/November-hom...set=&ccode=

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Home resales surged last month to the highest level in nearly three years, reflecting an extraordinary level of federal support that has pulled the housing market back from the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

 

Buyers were racing to complete their sales before the original expiration date of a tax credit for first-time buyers that was scheduled to expire Nov. 30. Last month, Congress decided to extend and expand the credit to ensure the housing market could sustain its recovery.

The Realtors estimated that about 2 million homebuyers have taken advantage of the credit so far and forecasts that another 2.4 million will use it by the middle of next year. First-time buyers made up about half of all transactions last month, driving sales up 44 percent above last year's levels, a record jump.

Sales are now up 46 percent from the bottom in January, but down 10 percent from the peak more than four years ago.

 

The median sales price was $172,600, down 4.3 percent from a year earlier, and up 0.2 percent from October.

 

"Things are stabilizing," said Pete Flint, chief executive of real estate Web site Trulia.com. "There is a significant amount of buyer interest out there."

 

November sales rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million, from a downwardly revised pace of 6.09 million in October.

 

Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 6.25 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

 

The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 1 percent to 3.5 million. That's a healthy 6.5 month supply at the current sales pace, the lowest level in three years.

 

Besides the existing tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers, homeowners who have lived in their current properties for at least five years can now claim a tax credit of up to $6,500 if they relocate. To qualify, buyers must sign a purchase agreement by April 30.

 

Postponing the deadline could mean sales will drop during the winter months and recover in the spring.

 

"Buyers have no sense of urgency now," said Gary DeRosa, an agent with ZipRealty Inc. in Seattle.

Meanwhile NEW home sales went down 11% in the same period, lowest since April.

 

But before anyone panics, two things to note. One, existing homes are a much bigger number. Two, this divergence is, IMO, exactly what the market needs. Increased buying, decreased new supply (as builders continue to downshift). So together, this is a great sign.