Financial News

[bmags]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/business...-2015.html?_r=0

[StrangeSox]

The poverty rate dropped from 14.8% to 13.5% year over year. 5 million people are out of poverty from year before. That is incredible\

 

Hell, just read Justin Wolfers twitter:

twitter.com/justinwolfers

 

This is one of the best census reports ever recorded. Largest ever gains from 10th-80th percentiles. Income inequality decreased.

So the only group that didn't see growth is people outside of metropolitan areas. Rural areas are continuing to die.

[StrangeSox]

Oh and the rate of uninsured fell below 10% for the first time ever.

[Jerksticks]

I don't buy any of it. People 18-40 are less skilled than ever.

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't buy any of it. People 18-40 are less skilled than ever.

So, you don't buy a massive year-long data set conducted and reviewed by mathematicians, but you buy your personal view that people in a certain age range seem less skilled?

 

Also, and important, skill level and pay are not necessarily linked. In fact the US economy, for good or bad, continues to drop away from hard skills in engineering and manufacturing, into softer service-side skills, which are much harder to quantify.

 

[bmags]

So, you don't buy a massive year-long data set conducted and reviewed by mathematicians, but you buy your personal view that people in a certain age range seem less skilled?

 

Also, and important, skill level and pay are not necessarily linked. In fact the US economy, for good or bad, continues to drop away from hard skills in engineering and manufacturing, into softer service-side skills, which are much harder to quantify.

 

Re: skills. 2008 moved a lot of former construction workers to other industries (or dropped out), now there is a shortage of construction workers, and so far they aren't matching up. May be what SS is alluding to in terms of geographical mismatch right now.

 

 

[bmags]

Also I do think there is room to question the census data as some of their measurements are a quite different than what we are used to from BLS and FRED

[bmags]

I wonder if this Bayer/Monsanto merger will go through.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/14/investing/...deal/index.html

[StrangeSox]

Re: skills. 2008 moved a lot of former construction workers to other industries (or dropped out), now there is a shortage of construction workers, and so far they aren't matching up. May be what SS is alluding to in terms of geographical mismatch right now.

 

Small towns and rural areas as a whole are dying right now because everyone younger is fleeing them for suburban and urban centers.

[southsider2k5]

So, you don't buy a massive year-long data set conducted and reviewed by mathematicians, but you buy your personal view that people in a certain age range seem less skilled?

 

Also, and important, skill level and pay are not necessarily linked. In fact the US economy, for good or bad, continues to drop away from hard skills in engineering and manufacturing, into softer service-side skills, which are much harder to quantify.

 

The issue is that it doesn't line up at all with wage growth, GDP growth, inflation, savings rate or any of the other traditional measures. So where did the money come from, and where did it go to? This is just another in a series of numbers that don't really make sense in a package.

[iamshack]

Small towns and rural areas as a whole are dying right now because everyone younger is fleeing them for suburban and urban centers.

Yeah, despite technology making it easier to live in rural areas and stay connected to everything, there simply are no jobs to be had other than farming.

[NorthSideSox72]

The issue is that it doesn't line up at all with wage growth, GDP growth, inflation, savings rate or any of the other traditional measures. So where did the money come from, and where did it go to? This is just another in a series of numbers that don't really make sense in a package.

The numbers are inflation-adjusted. But as for paralleling with GDP growth, that had grown for years with no wage growth. The rubber band was stretching, now it snapped back. Not really a surprise, some of those measures don't run in parallel exactly, even though they are tied. Money came in part from something we've seen reported for a bunch of years - corporations hoarding cash are now starting to make investments, finally.

 

[bmags]

The issue is that it doesn't line up at all with wage growth, GDP growth, inflation, savings rate or any of the other traditional measures. So where did the money come from, and where did it go to? This is just another in a series of numbers that don't really make sense in a package.

 

These are all valid reasons to think this is an outlier (again, the way census measures is peculiar, but measured against it's own previous reports would show we are picking up something)

 

The "don't buy it us workers less skilled than ever" is not accurate, as they would certainly be MORE skilled as there are more of everything, than ever before. But even if there were less skilled workers, that may be a reason for wages to increase as there is scarcity.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

The numbers are inflation-adjusted. But as for paralleling with GDP growth, that had grown for years with no wage growth. The rubber band was stretching, now it snapped back. Not really a surprise, some of those measures don't run in parallel exactly, even though they are tied. Money came in part from something we've seen reported for a bunch of years - corporations hoarding cash are now starting to make investments, finally.

 

Yet it hasn't translated to PPI, CPI, inflation, or wage growth, like you would think it should.

 

The one thought I actually had was I wonder if this is tied to subsidy growth from health care where the money is being created on one end through tax refunds, but is disappearing into another end to pay for the subsidizes, and never actually getting into the economy where it would show up in some of these other indicators.

[southsider2k5]

These are all valid reasons to think this is an outlier (again, the way census measures is peculiar, but measured against it's own previous reports would show we are picking up something)

 

The "don't buy it us workers less skilled than ever" is not accurate, as they would certainly be MORE skilled as there are more of everything, than ever before. But even if there were less skilled workers, that may be a reason for wages to increase as there is scarcity.

 

I don't buy that part for a second. It sounds like another old people who hate millennials fairy tale.

[bmags]

Anyone wanna read this with me then:?

http://www2.census.gov/library/publication...6/p60-256sa.pdf

 

edit: Doesn't get into survey questions.

Edited September 14, 2016 by bmags

[StrangeSox]

Aren't education levels higher than ever these days?

[bmags]

After reading that, I think it's plausible that the cash transfer for subsidies for health insurance could be claimed as additional income, but gonna keep looking.

[bmags]

Nevermind - not included in their income:

 

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Census money income is defined as income received on a regular basis (exclusive of certain money receipts such as capital gains) before payments for personal income taxes, social security, union dues, medicare deductions, etc. Therefore, money income does not reflect the fact that some families receive part of their income in the form of noncash benefits, such as food stamps, health benefits, subsidized housing, and goods produced and consumed on the farm. In addition, money income does not reflect the fact that noncash benefits are also received by some nonfarm residents which may take the form of the use of business transportation and facilities, full or partial payments by business for retirement programs, medical and educational expenses, etc.

[southsider2k5]

Nevermind - not included in their income:

 

About

Tweet Share on Facebook

Census money income is defined as income received on a regular basis (exclusive of certain money receipts such as capital gains) before payments for personal income taxes, social security, union dues, medicare deductions, etc. Therefore, money income does not reflect the fact that some families receive part of their income in the form of noncash benefits, such as food stamps, health benefits, subsidized housing, and goods produced and consumed on the farm. In addition, money income does not reflect the fact that noncash benefits are also received by some nonfarm residents which may take the form of the use of business transportation and facilities, full or partial payments by business for retirement programs, medical and educational expenses, etc.

 

So much for that theory. Thanks for finding that. It was the one thing that made some sense, oh well.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah, see this is what I mean, so income is up 5%, savings is basically unchanged, but nothing else is growing, in fact key indicators fell last month

 

Retails sales -0.3%, after +0.1% in July

GDP up 1% in the first half of the year

Gas sales down 0.8%

Auto sales down 0.9%

PPI flat

 

Where is the money going?

 

[bmags]

Yeah, see this is what I mean, so income is up 5%, savings is basically unchanged, but nothing else is growing, in fact key indicators fell last month

 

Retails sales -0.3%, after +0.1% in July

GDP up 1% in the first half of the year

Gas sales down 0.8%

Auto sales down 0.9%

PPI flat

 

Where is the money going?

 

Couple things to keep in mind:

- US should really let our data depts use things like IRS returns. We could have an actual very accurate number but instead rely on survey data

- I wouldn't put so much stock that the real time monthly numbers based off survey data re accurate and the annual survey data is so different.

[Harry Chappas]

Yeah, see this is what I mean, so income is up 5%, savings is basically unchanged, but nothing else is growing, in fact key indicators fell last month

 

Retails sales -0.3%, after +0.1% in July

GDP up 1% in the first half of the year

Gas sales down 0.8%

Auto sales down 0.9%

PPI flat

 

Where is the money going?

 

The entertainment utility industry - cell phone, internet, television.

[southsider2k5]

Couple things to keep in mind:

- US should really let our data depts use things like IRS returns. We could have an actual very accurate number but instead rely on survey data

- I wouldn't put so much stock that the real time monthly numbers based off survey data re accurate and the annual survey data is so different.

 

I get that the numbers have a fair amount of slop built into them, both because of the size and scope of them, and the fact that the true numbers aren't known for a period of time after the numbers are published, but even in a big picture sense, the economy doesn't really agree with a decent amount of the numbers. It is such an odd period of time in terms of economic history.

[bmags]

I get that the numbers have a fair amount of slop built into them, both because of the size and scope of them, and the fact that the true numbers aren't known for a period of time after the numbers are published, but even in a big picture sense, the economy doesn't really agree with a decent amount of the numbers. It is such an odd period of time in terms of economic history.

 

Numbers that should converge aren't converging.