Financial News

[Soxbadger]

Good news is that now everything made of steel and aluminium will cost more.

 

What a time to be alive.

[StrangeSox]

Trade War!!

 

EU promises firm response to U.S. steel tariffs

 

BRUSSELS, March 1 (Reuters) - The European Union said on Thursday it would react firmly with a proposal within days for WTO-compatible countermeasures against the United States for trade restrictions on steel and aluminum, which it called a “blatant intervention” to protect U.S. industry.

 

“We strongly regret this step, which appears to represent a blatant intervention to protect U.S. domestic industry and not to be based on any national security justification,” the European Commission chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker said in a statement.

 

“We will not sit idly while our industry is hit with unfair measures that put thousands of European jobs at risk ... The EU will react firmly and commensurately to defend our interests.” (Reporting by Alissa de Carbonnel @AdeCar Editing by Peter Graff)

 

Trump's using a "national security interest" provision to get around WTO rules on these tariffs. That could unleash a big can of worms internationally.

[StrangeSox]

https://twitter.com/MatthewNussbaum/status/991415820847865858

[caulfield12]

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is upbeat about President Trump’s trade agenda. But he’s not promising a free lunch. “If you don’t show you’re willing to absorb a little bit of pain, how on earth are you going to get things changed?” he said at the Milken Institute’s annual finance-fest in Los Angeles, before heading to China for trade negotiations.

In a conversation with Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer, Ross jabbed the New York Times, rhapsodized about space, and predicted Trump’s threats on trade would ultimately produce success. Trade worries is one big thing holding back financial markets in an otherwise robust economy, with investors worried that tit-for-tat tariffs will blow up into an outright trade war.

Ross downplays those risks, pointing to tariffs on Korean-made washing machines the Trump administration imposed earlier this year. “There was a bit woe-is-me,” Ross said. “Well, guess what. Both Samsung and LG are increasing their production of washing machines in the United States.”

The Commerce Secretary provided an update on negotiations with Canada and Mexico about revamping the North American Free Trade Agreement, a huge trade pact that undergirds much of the US economy. “Either we’ll have a deal in the next few weeks or it probably won’t be until the fall,” Ross said, pointing out that upcoming elections in Canada and Mexico this summer would probably require a pause if there’s not a deal. By the same logic, Ross’s fall deadline might be unrealistic, given that the US midterm elections are in November.

The New York Times recently ran a story saying the Chinese plan to rebuff key US demands on trade. Ross was droll when asked about that. “Apparently the New York Times has developed psychic powers,” he said, as titters filled the ballroom where he spoke.

Ross ripped the World Trade Organization, which is supposed to manage disputes between member countries, which include both China and the United States. “The WTO is an obsolete set of rules,” Ross said. “It’s been more or less created to benefit exporting countries [such as China], to the detriment of importing countries [such as the United States].” That mimics Trump’s frequent claims that the United States is a victim taken advantage of by smarter countries in various trade deals.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-adviser-americans-need-absorb-little-bit-pain-185727558.html

[StrangeSox]

Unemployment drops down to 3.9% as we continue the years-long trend of adding 150k-200k jobs month-after-month-after-month. Some thoughts from an econ professor on what that means for the future trend of unemployment and wages 

 

 

[Balta1701]

I hate how things few could have predicted are things that I would have predicted.

Seriously, it's not hard to reconcile and I have no idea why a person is actually paid to say that. A huge number of people dropped off the rolls after the 2008 collapse and they're slowly being pulled back in as jobs become easier to find. That combined with low business investment is keeping wage pressure from growing despite the low nominal employment rate. 

I will do that person's job more effectively for the same money. Changing from them to me will improve effectiveness without wage growth.

[caulfield12]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/week-trumponomics-workers-disappear-173826715.html

Economists struggle to explain two oddities in the current labor market. The first is the relatively low portion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one. The so-called labor-force participation rate is 62.8%, a level it has generally been stuck at since 2014. The peak was 67.3% in 2000. So while the unemployment rate is back to the low levels of 2000, the portion of Americans working or looking for work is considerably lower.

An aging labor force might explain part of the problem, since workers aged 55 to 64 — a bracket that is swelling, as the baby boomers age — are less likely to work than younger folks. The opioid epidemic might keep some people who would otherwise have a job from working. Recent research from the Conference Board suggests more people consider themselves disabled these days, a third possible explanation for the low participation rate.

The other oddity is weak wage growth, with wages rising just 2.6% during the last 12 months. Ordinarily, employers hike pay as unemployment drops and workers become scarce. There are 6.5 million unfilled jobs in America, and there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence that a lot of employers can’t find workers. But if they’re paying more to get the people they need, it’s not showing up in the data.

These two factors—weak wage growth and low worker participation—are a drag on economic growth, and they seem out of sync with an unemployment rate that’s historically low. Trump’s main economic policy is tax cuts, which are supposed to leave workers and businesses with more after-tax income to spend and invest. But it’s not clear tax cuts will do anything to pull more workers into the labor force, or boost basic pay.

[Balta1701]

So seriously, you're quoting an article that says "wage growth is weak and people have left the work force" and you can't put those 2 together?

People left the workforce after the collapse because it was difficult to find a job and because the jobs that became available did not pay well enough. As the labor market has tightened, people have slowly trickled back into the workforce, at a rate high enough to prevent wage growth. That's where we're at right now and where we'll stay for a while longer barring another shock to the system. These 2 "oddities" are directly linked and literally cause each other.

We need wage growth amongst economists to attract a better class of writer for Caulfield to quote.

[southsider2k5]

If President's acknowledge the hidden unemployment rate, they can't take credit for a great economy.  That's why Obama never did and Trump never will. 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

If President's acknowledge the hidden unemployment rate, they can't take credit for a great economy.  That's why Obama never did and Trump never will. 

Your Bushes were ok with the same thing, and yet you deliberately avoided that. At this point there's 20 years of data like this. Someone who pays attention to data can deal with this if they know how to deal with data. Shame that "economists" are stunned.

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Your Bushes were ok with the same thing, and yet you deliberately avoided that. At this point there's 20 years of data like this. Someone who pays attention to data can deal with this if they know how to deal with data. Shame that "economists" are stunned.

Wow.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Rabbit said:

 Didn't the Bureau of Labor during Obama's admin change how the unemployement stats are calculated? They removed people who haven't looked for jobs in the last four weeks from the statistics. I am pretty sure Trump used to b**** about this on Twitter, not that he gets to take advantage, he's cool with it. 

In any case, we have far less people participating in the job market and far more people on government aid. However, for those who actually look for and want a job, it is easy to attain. I know you can't see this without a partisan lens but let's try to stay on topic as this is pretty interesting...at least to me. 

The numbers are there for people who want them.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Rabbit said:

 Didn't the Bureau of Labor during Obama's admin change how the unemployement stats are calculated? They removed people who haven't looked for jobs in the last four weeks from the statistics. I am pretty sure Trump used to b**** about this on Twitter, not that he gets to take advantage, he's cool with it. 

In any case, we have far less people participating in the job market and far more people on government aid. However, for those who actually look for and want a job, it is easy to attain. I know you can't see this without a partisan lens but let's try to stay on topic as this is pretty interesting...at least to me. 

If you look back at the records they've been making gradual changes for the last 30+ years making it extremely difficult to compare the unemployment rate from one time to another. The Birth/Death model was implemented during the Bush years, there was a ballooning of disability designations during the Obama years.

[caulfield12]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/entry-level-job-store-harder-073647686.html

Climbing the entry level ladder at retail/fast food jobs is getting harder and harder...

[StrangeSox]

Trump imposes steel and aluminum tariffs on the European Union, Canada and Mexico

 

Quote

The move is certain to trigger retaliation by the E.U. against a range of American products, including Kentucky bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, and could complicate talks over a possible new North American trade deal — further straining ties between the United States and some of its closest allies.

President Trump had announced the tariffs in March, but gave several U.S. allies temporary exemptions while they negotiated potential limits on shipments to the United States. The tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum are set to take effect at the end of Thursday on imports from the three U.S. trading partners.

 

 

He also allegedly wants to block all German luxury car imports

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/31/trump-reportedly-said-he-wants-to-stop-german-luxury-car-imports-in-the-us.html

 

Quote

President Donald Trump is hoping to block German luxury carmakers from the U.S. market, according to an exclusive report by German magazine WirtschaftsWoche.

Citing several unnamed U.S. and European diplomats, the weekly business magazine reported that Trump told French President Emmanuel Macron last month he would maintain his trade policy with the aim of stopping Mercedes-Benz models from driving down Fifth Avenue in New York. The report didn't give any further details on what policies would be used to effectively ban the premium carmakers.

The report comes less than two weeks after the U.S. Department of Commerce launched an investigation into automobile imports to determine whether they "threaten to impair the national security" of the U.S. That could lead to tariffs of up to 25 percent on the same "national security" grounds used to impose metal imports charges in March.

 

 

 

How will the WTO respond to invoking dubious "national security" claims to impose tariffs and import restrictions/bans/

[LittleHurt05]

I was a fan of the China steel import taxes, but this is just a waste of time.  And stopping Mercedes-Benz from driving down 5th Avenue is top 5 most ridiculous things he has ever said if true. 

[RockRaines]

Why increase the cost of goods like cars?  Seems weird

[StrangeSox]

Trade wars are good, and easy to win.

[caulfield12]

How are we positioned in North America?**

 

• There are around 34,000 people working for Daimler in North America, which represents about 12% of our global workforce.
• With 140,000 units sold, the US is the largest market in the world for Daimler Trucks.
• With a total of 165,000 units, Daimler holds a market share of 40% for heavy-duty trucks (class ? and a market share of 39.8% for trucks classes 6 to 8 in North America.
• 17% of all Mercedes-Benz Cars have been sold in North America in 2017. 
• With 338,000 units sold, the US is the second-largest market for Mercedes-Benz Cars.
• Mercedes-Benz has been the leading luxury brand in all three NAFTA markets in 2017.
• With a contract volume of 41.6 billion Euro, the US is the biggest market for Daimler Financial Services.
• The US is the second-largest market in the world for Sprinter vans.
• With 3,440 units sold, Mexico is the second largest market for Daimler buses.
• moovel transit is the market leader for mobile ticketing systems in the USA.
• 22.8% of Daimler AG's shareholders come from the US.

[caulfield12]

Trump’s fatal flaw is becoming dangerous—even to him

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-fatal-flaw-becoming-dangerous-even-173821635.html

Favoring the old "industrial" economy over the new one (tech, services, value-added good, financial)

[caulfield12]

9 hours ago, raBBit said:

Man this really sucks. I guess the kids are going to have to split the case 3 ways instead of 2 ways. 

It does suck for single mothers or 75-85 year old greeters at Wal-Mart...

[jasonxctf]

There is a ton of available jobs (and have been for the last 5 years) on the lower end of the wage scale. Leaving these positions unfilled, inhibits future expansion and growth of these businesses and the economy as a whole.

If only there was a group of people, looking to enter the United States and willing to work at these lower end paid positions.... Hmm...  ?

Wouldnt it be amazing, if the US Economy fell into pseudo-stagflation (without the high unemployment) or a minor recession due to lack of workforce participation. Partially because of an immigration policy that targets these potential workers. (ICE Roundups, Travel Ban, Border Crackdown, etc)

 

[caulfield12]

On 6/3/2018 at 9:45 AM, jasonxctf said:

There is a ton of available jobs (and have been for the last 5 years) on the lower end of the wage scale. Leaving these positions unfilled, inhibits future expansion and growth of these businesses and the economy as a whole.

If only there was a group of people, looking to enter the United States and willing to work at these lower end paid positions.... Hmm...  ?

Wouldnt it be amazing, if the US Economy fell into pseudo-stagflation (without the high unemployment) or a minor recession due to lack of workforce participation. Partially because of an immigration policy that targets these potential workers. (ICE Roundups, Travel Ban, Border Crackdown, etc)

 

It (along with tariff wars in Heartland) is already having a measurable effect on both itinerant farm workers as well as those working in the beef/pork/chicken slaughterhouses.

[caulfield12]

12 hours ago, raBBit said:

Is Walmart a fast food chain? You should also look up the relationship between the increase of single motherhood and welfare spending. Most single mothers are better off not working and being on welfare than working at McDondalds. 

Very simple solution...raise the EITC high enough where there are MORE significant/appreciable incentives to work (especially for single mothers), otherwise, the long-term costs to society of children not being raised well will more than offset any short-term benefits from saving money that would have been allocated to welfare/WIC/AFDC/food stamps payments by the government.

 

if single mothers could not get any welfare, they would not start "taking responsibilities for their actions" they would start getting more abortions...not to mention, welfare can be a very good thing for a single parent. Do you have any idea how much raising a child costs? A lot of single mothers are young and don't have a college degree, and needless to say, if you're struggling with the financial responsibilities of raising a child you are not earning enough to go to college and eventually get a degree to fix that matter. single parents sometimes need welfare to make sure their child doesn't DIE. i mean, what do you think is the bigger loss, tax dollars, or the lives of children through malnourishment or illness without medication? sure, there are some woman out there who keep having kids in order to collect more welfare, don't find a job, basically take from the systems money, but there are people who abuse every privileged, the world isn't perfect and neither is welfare.

also, in terms of child support. the money received from the father is not enough to raise a child. it's just help, and if you have sex with a woman, the child is every much of yours as it is hers, so you really should be helping her pay for it. men need to take just as much responsibility for their actions as woman. and a woman does not trick a man into impregnating her..i mean, there are a few independent cases, but really? morning sickness, looking like the good year blimp, difficulty moving around, CHILD BIRTH. that's not worth your money, especially since it's not enough to pay for the child and then have an additional income anyways. having a child is actually still losing money from your income for the woman, even with child support.

not to mention, my sister is on food stamps and receiving child support AND a working woman and she's still barely making ends meet. i mean, when you have kids, you can't exactly run out and work 80 hours a week, and the hours you do get at some low paying job really doesn't cut it. she is taking responsibility. she made a mistake, but she kept the kid, she's raising it, she's out there working, and she's getting a little help, because without it, she'd probably be living in the car, my nephew wouldn't have enough food, and i'm honestly sick to my stomach thinking about what could happen to him.

me? i was assaulted and ended up pregnant. i'm not on welfare, nor am i getting child support because of my situation (his money isn't worth him being in my son's life even the slightest). i'm stripping to earn an income and working a couple days a week at a hospital (to fill in the employment gaps on future applications and also to get benefits). i'm taking responsibility, and i didn't even do anything to lead to the pregnancy, except maybe trust someone i thought was a long time friend. him on the other hand? this is all on him. i wouldn't have been pregnant if he'd stayed the f*ck away from me, yet where is he? no clue. he's not paying child support, doesn't have to be a part of the kid's life nor does he want to, and basically got off scotch free (while i had a kit done, no charges were pressed. the deal was if he stayed completely out of my life and my son's life, he wouldn't have to pick out an outfit for court). so, not only is child support and welfare sometimes necessary for single mothers (as i know i would definitely need it had i not decided to strip), but it's not just the woman who has to take responsibility. it's the man. and it's not just the woman who "don't", according to you, it goes both ways. there are a lot of woman out there completely caring for their children while the father's life hasn't changed at all.

so, basically, if welfare and child support were taken away, almost every single parent depending on it would end up on the streets and the mortality rate of children would go up. in addition to that, more woman would get abortions. yes. you came up with a brilliant idea, didn't you?

 

https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AwrE19VOKRZbCzQAUAhXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTByMjB0aG5zBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw--?qid=20110302165004AAc8sKK

Edited June 5, 2018 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medicare-crisis-almost-185009238.html

Medicare will be running out of money in 2026, 3 years earlier than initially projected...out of pocket costs to patients will increase or taxes will have to be raised.