Financial News

[Cknolls]

What exactly was the backstop for GE? I am not familiar with the details of that one.

 

 

The gov't gurananteed their short term commercial paper so they could continue as a going business.

[jasonxctf]

Market closes above 10,700

[jasonxctf]

Way to miss the point. Evil wallstreet bankers should be taxed and hung. Pseudo gov't institutions , ,,,ok to pay outrageous bonuses for f***ing up the entire mortgage mkt.

 

so you are in agreement with the Obama Administrations Pay Caps on highly compensated bankers?

[Cknolls]

so you are in agreement with the Obama Administrations Pay Caps on highly compensated bankers?

 

 

Absolutely not. What do they expect these banks to do with the free money they are giving them? Here, borrow for nothing lever it up and make huge profits, but do not even think about paying your employees. Stop the free money to these banks!!!!!Don't b**** when they make obscene profits and pay their employees. That argument is stale.

 

 

Oh and when is the special tax on GM going to be enacted like the bank tax to recover TARP?..........Waits for years......Gets no response.........f***ing idiots....

[Cknolls]

Market closes above 10,700

 

 

Mkt is beginning the selloff. Remember mkts do not selloff on bad news. And the catalyst for this selloff will be the bank earnings that started today. Time/price are squaring out in the mkt, look for trend change. A close back below 1130 today on cash should lead to a test of the December lows. If that does not hold it will be a quick drop to the low 1000's.

[NorthSideSox72]

Mkt is beginning the selloff. Remember mkts do not selloff on bad news. And the catalyst for this selloff will be the bank earnings that started today. Time/price are squaring out in the mkt, look for trend change. A close back below 1130 today on cash should lead to a test of the December lows. If that does not hold it will be a quick drop to the low 1000's.

Well I'm glad I went long SEF then.

 

But I still don't see the markets selling off as intensely as you project.

 

[Balta1701]

Well I'm glad I went long SEF then.

 

But I still don't see the markets selling off as intensely as you project.

Barring a serious, probably international event, there's no reason for a huge selloff to really start until the Fed starts yanking out its supports. Its inflated the stock market as a bubble it can use to push money outwards, in the hopes that consumers and unemployment can start to rebound before that bursts.

[NorthSideSox72]

Barring a serious, probably international event, there's no reason for a huge selloff to really start until the Fed starts yanking out its supports. Its inflated the stock market as a bubble it can use to push money outwards, in the hopes that consumers and unemployment can start to rebound before that bursts.

Some of those supports are in for the long haul. Others will be removed when its natural to do so.

 

The key is still jobs, jobs and jobs. The Stim bill undoubtedly helped (hard to say how MUCH of course), but it was the wrong approach. Even if it was the right one, its still may not have made enough difference. Where the various UE rates are as we go through 2010 will dictate where we go.

 

[Cknolls]

Well I'm glad I went long SEF then.

 

But I still don't see the markets selling off as intensely as you project.

 

 

Barring a serious, probably international event, there's no reason for a huge selloff to really start until the Fed starts yanking out its supports. Its inflated the stock market as a bubble it can use to push money outwards, in the hopes that consumers and unemployment can start to rebound before that bursts.

 

 

 

News events break with the mkts not the other way around; Whenever there is a sqaureout/trend change in the mkt, you will see a corresponding news event that follows.

 

 

I am talking purely technichal here. The Fed has nothing to do with this pullback. We should close today in the low 1130's. But if we break 1130.38 on SPX and there is no bounce, we could fall to 1119.75 on futures. FWIW....

[southsider2k5]

News events break with the mkts not the other way around; Whenever there is a sqaureout/trend change in the mkt, you will see a corresponding news event that follows.

 

 

I am talking purely technichal here. The Fed has nothing to do with this pullback. We should close today in the low 1130's. But if we break 1130.38 on SPX and there is no bounce, we could fall to 1119.75 on futures. FWIW....

 

I think you have the cause and effect backwards... The market makes the news whatever it wants to make it.

[Balta1701]

I'm never going to find the old energy thread, but I'd wager serious money on G.S. being right here.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that shortages will reappear in the crude oil market as supply fails to keep pace with a recovery in demand.

 

Global oil consumption will return to levels seen before the financial crisis by the third quarter of this year, Goldman analyst Jeffrey Currie said in a presentation in London today. At the same time, projects to bring new oil to consumers are still lagging as a result of the credit crunch, he said.

 

“By 2011, the market is back to capacity constraints,” Currie said in slides shown with the presentation. “The financial crisis created a collapse in company returns which has significantly interrupted the investment phase.”

The only thing that's going to make them wrong is oil prices spiking so much that it makes the world economy contract further and double-dip seriously.

[NorthSideSox72]

Yet another reason why the stimulus should have been energy-focused. This is all so predictable.

 

[Balta1701]

Yet another reason why the stimulus should have been energy-focused. This is all so predictable.

But tax cuts! Everyone agrees on Tax Cuts!

[NorthSideSox72]

But tax cuts! Everyone agrees on Tax Cuts!

I like the idea of doing both, in the energy space - direct funding and competitive research, as well as targeted tax incentives and breaks.

 

[Balta1701]

I like the idea of doing both, in the energy space - direct funding and competitive research, as well as targeted tax incentives and breaks.

No. Unless it goes directly to the top wage earners it's wasted.

[NorthSideSox72]

No. Unless it goes directly to the top wage earners it's wasted.

um... can't tell, are you playing Kap or something?

 

Also, keep in mind that most tax credits and write-offs targeted at individual taxpayers end up helping everyone BUT the top wage earners, thanks to the AMT.

 

[Balta1701]

um... can't tell, are you playing Kap or something?

 

Also, keep in mind that most tax credits and write-offs targeted at individual taxpayers end up helping everyone BUT the top wage earners, thanks to the AMT.

If 15% of the stimulus hadn't been a cut in the AMT, I might have agreed with you.

[NorthSideSox72]

If 15% of the stimulus hadn't been a cut in the AMT, I might have agreed with you.

The increase in ceiling for the AMT over last year is $500 per individual ($1000 for married/jointly), and only effects 3% of tax paying households (about 80M of those). 3% of 100M is 3M, multiplied by a blended amount of about $750, gives you $2.25B. That, by my math, is about 2.8% of the Stimulus bill - not anywhere near the 15% you claim.

 

Or, are you creatively saying that the amount of money in the stimulus bill for the AMT was the amount to cover all the way back to the 1986 origination levels?

 

[Texsox]

But tax cuts! Everyone agrees on Tax Cuts!

 

 

It's the best way to increase the size of the government when all that new revenue rolls in, plus, someone else pays off the deficit. What's not to like?

[Balta1701]

The increase in ceiling for the AMT over last year is $500 per individual ($1000 for married/jointly), and only effects 3% of tax paying households (about 80M of those). 3% of 100M is 3M, multiplied by a blended amount of about $750, gives you $2.25B. That, by my math, is about 2.8% of the Stimulus bill - not anywhere near the 15% you claim.

 

Or, are you creatively saying that the amount of money in the stimulus bill for the AMT was the amount to cover all the way back to the 1986 origination levels?

Here's the numbers I'm using: $70 billion for a 1 year fix. That's about 10% of the package.

[NorthSideSox72]

Here's the numbers I'm using: $70 billion for a 1 year fix. That's about 10% of the package.

70 of 825 (using that article's numbers) is about 8.5%. But I think you have to keep in mind, that only a small portion of that small portion, is the increase over last year. The rest is the amount from last year, recurring.

 

[Balta1701]

70 of 825 (using that article's numbers) is about 8.5%. But I think you have to keep in mind, that only a small portion of that small portion, is the increase over last year. The rest is the amount from last year, recurring.

But...it didn't have anything to do with economic stimulus.

[NorthSideSox72]

But...it didn't have anything to do with economic stimulus.

Of course it did. Those people that are affected by the AMT are the biggest spenders in the economy. Putting cash in their hands means some of it will be spent, some of it invested. Both are good for the economy. I'm not going to get into the whole multiplier argument, because no one really knows how much of that would happen, but at the very least, it would do SOMETHING to help.

 

It is not targeted, nor is it a direct job creator, so in that sense, its perhaps not the most efficient way to generate economic positives. But its false to say it "didn't have anything to do with economic stimulus".

 

[jasonxctf]

Of course it did. Those people that are affected by the AMT are the biggest spenders in the economy. Putting cash in their hands means some of it will be spent, some of it invested. Both are good for the economy. I'm not going to get into the whole multiplier argument, because no one really knows how much of that would happen, but at the very least, it would do SOMETHING to help.

 

It is not targeted, nor is it a direct job creator, so in that sense, its perhaps not the most efficient way to generate economic positives. But its false to say it "didn't have anything to do with economic stimulus".

 

As an AMT'er myself, I can tell you that any extra money in my world neither gets spent nor invested (in the true sense). It goes into that Money Market account earning 1.25%, which the Banks aren't lending out to anyone.

[southsider2k5]

Of course it did. Those people that are affected by the AMT are the biggest spenders in the economy. Putting cash in their hands means some of it will be spent, some of it invested. Both are good for the economy. I'm not going to get into the whole multiplier argument, because no one really knows how much of that would happen, but at the very least, it would do SOMETHING to help.

 

It is not targeted, nor is it a direct job creator, so in that sense, its perhaps not the most efficient way to generate economic positives. But its false to say it "didn't have anything to do with economic stimulus".

 

Be careful how you make that statement. In reality the further up the ladder you go, the less of a percentage of funds is spent at the respective tax brackets. Now job creation is a different story, because these ARE the classes that create jobs, because they are the ones who can afford to take the risk of starting a small business.