Financial News

[kapkomet]

Unemployment claims took a large jump this week, and the 4 week moving average is starting to turn back to increasing job losses.

 

 

After tomorrow, I don't care, at least I hope not to.

 

Seriously, though, this is exactly what some of us were talking about. The "holiday bump" is gone... even after "seasonality adjustments" there's still seasonality, if that makes sense.

[NorthSideSox72]

After tomorrow, I don't care, at least I hope not to.

 

Seriously, though, this is exactly what some of us were talking about. The "holiday bump" is gone... even after "seasonality adjustments" there's still seasonality, if that makes sense.

This is not about seasonality, regardless of your outlook being good or bad. The adjustments are always there, and if anything, they probably adjusted too much, not too little. This is more purely a lack of momentum in the economy. Companies haven't seen enough fundamental strength to start hiring more, yet.

 

[Balta1701]

This is not about seasonality, regardless of your outlook being good or bad. The adjustments are always there, and if anything, they probably adjusted too much, not too little. This is more purely a lack of momentum in the economy. Companies haven't seen enough fundamental strength to start hiring more, yet.

Actually it could easily be related to seasonality, because the seasonality is a complicated average based on economic conditions. The issue is...it's hard to actually gauge the economic conditions in any particular year based on any model, because every year is a unique event, so there's always bound to be a little bit of slop.

 

Take a look at the raw graph:

 

IF nothing else..the corrections are a factor of 2 larger than the actual number you're looking at. Which means if your correction is off by 5%, then you have a major miss.

 

(Edit; frankly though, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is the first blip of another acceleration of job losses. Between another energy price spike, the dying-down of the stimulus, housing resuming its fall towards the bottom, continually increasing health care costs, etc., I can't see any real good reason for job losses to stop other than the remaining stimulus dollars).

[NorthSideSox72]

Actually it could easily be related to seasonality, because the seasonality is a complicated average based on economic conditions. The issue is...it's hard to actually gauge the economic conditions in any particular year based on any model, because every year is a unique event, so there's always bound to be a little bit of slop.

 

Take a look at the raw graph:

 

IF nothing else..the corrections are a factor of 2 larger than the actual number you're looking at. Which means if your correction is off by 5%, then you have a major miss.

Those are blips, and they go the wrong direction for what you are saying anyway. The economy will ride on how jobs do the next few months, and that will tell us what the year will be like. These reports are not about seasonality, they are about the fact that the economy's slow recovery is stalled at the moment. Where it goes from here, remains to be seen.

 

[mr_genius]

I have a sinking feeling that layoffs will really pickup in Feb and March

[NorthSideSox72]

Actually it could easily be related to seasonality, because the seasonality is a complicated average based on economic conditions. The issue is...it's hard to actually gauge the economic conditions in any particular year based on any model, because every year is a unique event, so there's always bound to be a little bit of slop.

 

Take a look at the raw graph:

 

IF nothing else..the corrections are a factor of 2 larger than the actual number you're looking at. Which means if your correction is off by 5%, then you have a major miss.

 

(Edit; frankly though, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is the first blip of another acceleration of job losses. Between another energy price spike, the dying-down of the stimulus, housing resuming its fall towards the bottom, continually increasing health care costs, etc., I can't see any real good reason for job losses to stop other than the remaining stimulus dollars).

re: the bolded, they chose to use the stimulus funds to spend on non-sustainable stuff. Huge mistake. Fortunately, lots of the temp money is still to be spent this year, but that's only good news if we have strength in the economy otherwise by the end of this year - and I don't see that happening.

 

So stupid.

 

[kapkomet]

And what is going to make it worse is that unemployment extensions are going to dry up and these people are going to just mysteriously disappear in the %'s and claims numbers.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

And what is going to make it worse is that unemployment extensions are going to dry up and these people are going to just mysteriously disappear in the %'s and claims numbers.

They will disappear in SOME numbers. But that's not even what makes it worse - what makes it worse is those people having no money, and become drains on the economy.

 

[jasonxctf]

from my little world, i can tell you that business capital spending, is up... way up versus Jan 2009.

 

Normally this means job growth is around the corner.

[kapkomet]

They will disappear in SOME numbers. But that's not even what makes it worse - what makes it worse is those people having no money, and become drains on the economy.

 

 

Well, sure, that's a direct result.

[Balta1701]

Finally! A use for the Senate!

Amidst the voter anger at Wall Street and Washington, D.C., ABC News has learned that the Senate Democratic leadership isn't sure there are enough votes to re-confirm Ben Bernanke for another term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

 

Bernanke's term expires on Jan. 31.

 

The White House did not respond to many requests for comment.

 

"The American people are disgusted with the greed and recklessness of Wall Street," Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., said in an interview with The Associated Press last month. "People are asking, 'Why didn't the Fed intervene at the appropriate time to stop the casino-type activities of large financial companies?'"

 

Sanders, Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., and Sen. David Vitter, R-La., have all put holds on Bernanke's nomination, requiring 60 votes to proceed to a vote.

Want Congressional reform? Nothing will make it happen faster than having the Senate accidentally slow down the free money to Wall Street train. Especially after yesterday.

[southsider2k5]

Finally! A use for the Senate!

Want Congressional reform? Nothing will make it happen faster than having the Senate accidentally slow down the free money to Wall Street train. Especially after yesterday.

 

This could be ugly for the markets.

[kapkomet]

This could be ugly for the markets.

 

 

There's no could. It will be ugly.

[NorthSideSox72]

The Rise of Volcker has been underway for a while now.

 

[Balta1701]

The Rise of Volcker has been underway for a while now.

You think he'd get the Fed Chair job back?

[NorthSideSox72]

You think he'd get the Fed Chair job back?

Directly and literally that job? Maybe not. In terms of actual influence on policy? Yes, and they may find a Bernanke replacement that is in line with Volcker's mindset. Jobs are not the same, policy areas not the same, but very related.

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

Directly and literally that job? Maybe not. In terms of actual influence on policy? Yes, and they may find a Bernanke replacement that is in line with Volcker's mindset. Jobs are not the same, policy areas not the same, but very related.

Ok, was trying to see what you meant by that.

 

It'd be really nice for everyone except the banks and Wall Street if Volcker suddenly found himself having a lot more influence this year. The markets might take a tumble in the short term, but that's basically a fed-inflated-bubble anyway.

[Cknolls]

Free Falling!!! If futes close below 1080 today, I believe we gap down huge Monday....Fwiw.....Regardless.. we will see low 1000's by expiration....1007ish(SPX)...And if there is no bounce there 945-954 area(SPX)...

[jasonxctf]

What would you say, the FMV of the Dow should be?

[Cknolls]

What would you say, the FMV of the Dow should be?

 

 

Don't really know, I trade futures. But I will say the high may be in for a while....10700 area was a good area to short..And we turned the monthly chart down today on a weekly closing basis(Very Bearish)..We should test the 9858 level in the coming week or so..

[Cknolls]

FWIW we were down Wed,Thur,Fri going into black monday. We will turn the monthly chart on SPX down next week and the subsequent move down to the low 1000's should play out.

[southsider2k5]

Don't really know, I trade futures. But I will say the high may be in for a while....10700 area was a good area to short..And we turned the monthly chart down today on a weekly closing basis(Very Bearish)..We should test the 9858 level in the coming week or so..

 

5% down move in three days off of the highs.

[kapkomet]

The timing of the "screw you banks, you suck ass" speech was interesting, and it was right at the same time that Bennie was told he was losing support. Hmmm.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

The timing of the "screw you banks, you suck ass" speech was interesting, and it was right at the same time that Bennie was told he was losing support. Hmmm.

 

Its also a scary sign considering it was the financials that led this rally back from the bottom in the first place. The only other sector that was close was commodities companies, and they have been getting hit with the comeback of the dollar lately.

[Balta1701]

Its also a scary sign considering it was the financials that led this rally back from the bottom in the first place. The only other sector that was close was commodities companies, and they have been getting hit with the comeback of the dollar lately.

You know as well as the rest of us that the rally was a bubble made out of a mixture of B.S. and soap.