Financial News

[NorthSideSox72]

The timing of the "screw you banks, you suck ass" speech was interesting, and it was right at the same time that Bennie was told he was losing support. Hmmm.

I think you have the causality backwards. Bernanke's school of thought is losing out with ObamaCo, and Volcker is coming into vogue. And obviously, Volcker's plan is less happy for Wall Street (but some of it is also probably necessary).

 

[Balta1701]

I think you have the causality backwards. Bernanke's school of thought is losing out with ObamaCo, and Volcker is coming into vogue. And obviously, Volcker's plan is less happy for Wall Street (but some of it is also probably necessary).

Really, there's a link y'all aren't looking at; Massachusetts. People are more angry at Wall Street than anywhere else right now. They'd rather have Lieberman and Nelson running those things than the people currently on Wall Street. The Pres and Congress looked the other way the last 12 months while Geithner, Summers, and Bernanke on got everything they wanted, and the end result is 10%+ unemployment, Wall Street Bonuses large enough to pay for the whole health care bill, a Federal Reserve that thinks it needs to fight inflation when unemployment is at 10%, and Republicans winning elections in Massachusetts. That last one...wake-up call for these guys.

[NorthSideSox72]

Really, there's a link y'all aren't looking at; Massachusetts. People are more angry at Wall Street than anywhere else right now. They'd rather have Lieberman and Nelson running those things than the people currently on Wall Street. The Pres and Congress looked the other way the last 12 months while Geithner, Summers, and Bernanke on got everything they wanted, and the end result is 10%+ unemployment, Wall Street Bonuses large enough to pay for the whole health care bill, a Federal Reserve that thinks it needs to fight inflation when unemployment is at 10%, and Republicans winning elections in Massachusetts. That last one...wake-up call for these guys.

Mass was just one of the last straws, this shift was underway before that election.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

NABE 75-member board says, unanimously, expecting slow but steady growth and recovery in the economy in the first half of 2010. Let's hope they're right.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Today was a good day for Chicago news, financially...

 

--Home sales went up for the 6th straight month for the metro, with large year-over-year and even month-over-month gains.

--Chicago sales particularly went up big, 40%.

--December sales were expected to disappoint, but actually surprised up.

--Ford plans to add 1200 new jobs at the Torrance Avenue plant.

 

[Cknolls]

Sell all rallies, a large move is imminent. Pulled all money from the mkt. Told family the same.. FWIW...

[NorthSideSox72]

Today was a good day for Chicago news, financially...

 

--Home sales went up for the 6th straight month for the metro, with large year-over-year and even month-over-month gains.

--Chicago sales particularly went up big, 40%.

--December sales were expected to disappoint, but actually surprised up.

--Ford plans to add 1200 new jobs at the Torrance Avenue plant.

 

So, this is even more interesting... while Chicago home sales saw surprisingly sharp gains, on slightly lower prices... the rest of the country saw 15%-ish drops in sales, but HIGHER prices.

 

What does that mean for Chicago? Well, our bubble wasn't nearly as bad as some other places. Maybe Chicago is getting rid of the flotsam and recovering faster? Or, is it a bad sign for Chicago, where there are more foreclosures than in other places? Foreclosure rates in Chicago have nto been as high as many other metros, so I'm leaning more towards the idea that Chicago may be recovering a bit faster than other markets. Hard to say for sure, though.

 

[Balta1701]

So, this is even more interesting... while Chicago home sales saw surprisingly sharp gains, on slightly lower prices... the rest of the country saw 15%-ish drops in sales, but HIGHER prices.

 

What does that mean for Chicago? Well, our bubble wasn't nearly as bad as some other places. Maybe Chicago is getting rid of the flotsam and recovering faster? Or, is it a bad sign for Chicago, where there are more foreclosures than in other places? Foreclosure rates in Chicago have nto been as high as many other metros, so I'm leaning more towards the idea that Chicago may be recovering a bit faster than other markets. Hard to say for sure, though.

Everything in the last 4 months of the housing market needs to be considered in the light of the massive government intervention in the housing market. One way to interpret that is that Chicago saw a rush of buyers to take advantage of the tax credit, and that rush of buyers kept the housing market from falling as fast as it would have had the employment bust been able to affect it on its own. The end result of that might therefore be an expectation of a more severe price drop in that region due to unemployment once the government housing price support program ends.

[Cknolls]

Everything in the last year of the market needs to be considered in the light of the massive government intervention in the housing market. One way to interpret that is that Chicago saw a rush of buyers to take advantage of the tax credit, and that rush of buyers kept the housing market from falling as fast as it would have had the employment bust been able to affect it on its own. The end result of that might therefore be an expectation of a more severe price drop in that region due to unemployment once the government housing price support program ends.

 

 

I cannot repeat this enough. This time is different. It was not a typical bubble. It will linger for a decade at least.

[southsider2k5]

Everything in the last 4 months of the housing market needs to be considered in the light of the massive government intervention in the housing market. One way to interpret that is that Chicago saw a rush of buyers to take advantage of the tax credit, and that rush of buyers kept the housing market from falling as fast as it would have had the employment bust been able to affect it on its own. The end result of that might therefore be an expectation of a more severe price drop in that region due to unemployment once the government housing price support program ends.

 

I would wait and see what prices do after April. I would expect us to at least see a temporary fall of at least the value of the tax credit. What will tell us everything is how they respond into the third and four quarter of 10.

[Balta1701]

I cannot repeat this enough. This time is different. It was not a typical bubble. It will linger for a decade at least.

This government intervention will linger for a decade? I find that nearly impossible to believe. In terms of the magnitude of its impact, every measurement says it was an order of magnitude smaller than the housing bubble itself. The effect of the housing bubble will linger for a decade, I'll buy that.

 

Here's a way of looking at the government intervention:

[southsider2k5]

This government intervention will linger for a decade? I find that nearly impossible to believe. In terms of the magnitude of its impact, every measurement says it was an order of magnitude smaller than the housing bubble itself. The effect of the housing bubble will linger for a decade, I'll buy that.

 

Here's a way of looking at the government intervention:

 

Not the intervention, the effects of the bubble.

[Balta1701]

What will tell us everything is how they respond into the third and four quarter of 10.

And what will determine that of course is the jobs situatioon.

[southsider2k5]

And what will determine that of course is the jobs situatioon.

 

That is all up to the corporations in this company to feel like it is safe to start hiring again.

[Balta1701]

That is all up to the corporations in this company to feel like it is safe to start hiring again.

That's an odd way of phrasing it.

[NorthSideSox72]

Everything in the last 4 months of the housing market needs to be considered in the light of the massive government intervention in the housing market. One way to interpret that is that Chicago saw a rush of buyers to take advantage of the tax credit, and that rush of buyers kept the housing market from falling as fast as it would have had the employment bust been able to affect it on its own. The end result of that might therefore be an expectation of a more severe price drop in that region due to unemployment once the government housing price support program ends.

Just to clarify something I think you misunderstood - these were December numbers, AFTER the tax credit expired originally (before it was extended). Most of the country saw a drop, as you'd expect - Chicago saw a rise. That differential is what I am curious about. And in fact, it would seem to indicate that Chicago's market is LESS attached to the tax credit than other markets.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

That's an odd way of phrasing it.

 

No, not at all. They have to feel the environment is safe for them to expand again, without fearing new taxes, new regulations, or other added costs.

[NorthSideSox72]

No, not at all. They have to feel the environment is safe for them to expand again, without fearing new taxes, new regulations, or other added costs.

Which makes it interesting that the NABE was so fully saying that they see that expansion happening in the first half of this year. I wonder what they see as the support for that.

 

[southsider2k5]

Which makes it interesting that the NABE was so fully saying that they see that expansion happening in the first half of this year. I wonder what they see as the support for that.

 

Yet unemployment still is not rebounding.

[Cknolls]

This government intervention will linger for a decade? I find that nearly impossible to believe. In terms of the magnitude of its impact, every measurement says it was an order of magnitude smaller than the housing bubble itself. The effect of the housing bubble will linger for a decade, I'll buy that.

 

Here's a way of looking at the government intervention:

 

 

Destruction of Debt will last at least a decade.

[NorthSideSox72]

Yet unemployment still is not rebounding.

That doesn't answer the question. There have been reports of expectations that the employment market will likely strengthen in that same period, but only by a little bit - which makes me re-ask the question. What is it the NABE executives see that will justify that growth?

 

[southsider2k5]

That doesn't answer the question. There have been reports of expectations that the employment market will likely strengthen in that same period, but only by a little bit - which makes me re-ask the question. What is it the NABE executives see that will justify that growth?

 

Honestly, I don't know. Dead cat bounce? It could also be cheerleading. Maybe it is the stimulus spending actually starting to happen this year, ahead of the Congressional elections.

[NorthSideSox72]

Honestly, I don't know. Dead cat bounce? It could also be cheerleading. Maybe it is the stimulus spending actually starting to happen this year, ahead of the Congressional elections.

I think we're past the bounce here. But the stimulus spending may be a factor. Or, they see the same thing I did a couple months ago, that retail spending had retrenched far more than was realistic in the long run. But even if both are true, that still seems like its not enough to justify it. Maybe they see the beginnings of small business emergence, as happens typically just after the bottom of a recession?

 

[southsider2k5]

Granted it is limited, but with the information I have locally, small businesses aren't moving at all right now. They are still in lock down mode.

[kapkomet]

Most aren't here, either. They don't want to get caught with their pants down on government interference.