Financial News

[southsider2k5]

Today could be the first of 2 or 3 90% down days I mentioned last week. While I am completely bearish, I would not be surprised to see the mkt tag 1110-1011 one more time. 1067 vibrates off of today's date.

 

The rest of this week ought to be interesting to see if we can hold 10k.

[Cknolls]

The rest of this week ought to be interesting to see if we can hold 10k.

 

 

Right. Closing below 1073.89(SPX) gives us a second outside week down in the last three weeks.

 

Real quick, next support for NDX is 1689.30. This index blew through a trendline this morning from the Aug lows.

 

Dow support comes in at 9858.59.

[kapkomet]

I think people are starting to figure out that we're screwed - this whole "recovery" is a gigantic, government caused bubble. Batten down the hatches.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I think people are starting to figure out that we're screwed - this whole "recovery" is a gigantic, government caused bubble. Batten down the hatches.

No, they've figured out two things. One, there is a recovery (as was priced in), but its not strong enough to build serious job-creating momentum. And two, the markets priced in a recovery such that they are priced out 2 years or so, which is way to far - so they are edging back.

 

[kapkomet]

No, they've figured out two things. One, there is a recovery (as was priced in), but its not strong enough to build serious job-creating momentum. And two, the markets priced in a recovery such that they are priced out 2 years or so, which is way to far - so they are edging back.

 

 

"the bubble is coming, the bubble is coming"... (Balta)...

[NorthSideSox72]

"the bubble is coming, the bubble is coming"... (Balta)...

Bubble Boy Balta?

 

I guess when your career is spent waiting for earthquakes, you just assume that all manners of life are on the brink of catastrophe.

 

[kapkomet]

Bubble Boy Balta?

 

I guess when your career is spent waiting for earthquakes, you just assume that all manners of life are on the brink of catastrophe.

 

 

 

Yep, that was my lead in.

 

Banks are indeed pretty earthquakish, though. Those shifty bastards.

[StrangeSox]

 

Yep, that was my lead in.

 

Banks are indeed pretty earthquakish, though. Those shifty bastards.

 

All the more reason to stabilize the foundations by handing out millions in bonuses.

 

Wouldn't want to lose that bubble-inflating talent, would we?!

[kapkomet]

All the more reason to stabilize the foundations by handing out millions in bonuses.

 

Wouldn't want to lose that bubble-inflating talent, would we?!

 

 

Right. The government, even though they own this crap for the most part, knew nothing of these bonuses.

 

I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you as well.

[southsider2k5]

Right. The government, even though they own this crap for the most part, knew nothing of these bonuses.

 

I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you as well.

 

They totally knew about them. They had the payczar himself quoted as saying they couldn't stop them because they were contractually obligated to pay them... Which of course you never hear in the headlines.

[StrangeSox]

Right. The government, even though they own this crap for the most part, knew nothing of these bonuses.

 

I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you as well.

 

Government isn't absolved here.

 

That doesn't make any "keeping talent" excuses for bonuses any less stupid.

[kapkomet]

Government isn't absolved here.

 

That doesn't make any "keeping talent" excuses for bonuses any less stupid.

 

 

Well, you have to keep the people who know how to manipulate the system, right?

[kapkomet]

http://247wallst.com/2010/02/04/us-recessi...nted-by-824000/

 

Holy crap.

 

What does that mean for April until now?

 

We could EASILY see 12% UE #'s and 20%+ on the U6.

 

Oh but wait... no we won't. Why? Because the 824,000+ have already given up.

[Balta1701]

http://247wallst.com/2010/02/04/us-recessi...nted-by-824000/

 

Holy crap.

 

What does that mean for April until now?

 

We could EASILY see 12% UE #'s and 20%+ on the U6.

 

Oh but wait... no we won't. Why? Because the 824,000+ have already given up.

What idiot wrote this crap?

The numbers, if correct, would add a nearly unbearable load to the economic recovery which has caused huge deficits due to government programs led by the Obama $787 billion stimulus package. The package was meant to save or create 3.5 million jobs. Unemployment has risen above 10% despite the government spending. The Administration and some members of Congress have proposed that the government spend another $80 billion on jobs programs. These expenditures would be part of a federal budget which would create a $1.6 trillion deficit in the government’s 2010 fiscal year.

 

The higher unemployment numbers would also indicate that the number of people who are chronically unemployed is greater than expected. That would mean the efforts by Congress to extend unemployment benefits would have to be increased to accomodate hundreds of thousands of job seekers that the government did not even know existed.

So, they've really existed since their jobs were cut, but suddenly, declaring they exist will cause an unbearable load on the economic recovery? That's too Wile-e-coyote for my taste. We've walked over the cliff, but it's not a problem unless we look down?

 

And the number of people chronically unemployed is higher than expected, thus it costs more to extend unemployment benefits? Really? The government has zero idea of how many people are receiving unemployment benefits, it just sends out checks to anyone who asks? I thought that only Wall Street got that deal.

[Balta1701]

Bubble Boy Balta?

 

I guess when your career is spent waiting for earthquakes, you just assume that all manners of life are on the brink of catastrophe.

And over the last 10 years, how many times would I have been right in calling "Bubble"? If I'd had the money to invest, I could have made an absolute fortune betting against the housing market from 2005-on, if I was a little bit patient.

 

Right now, I'd be betting against China and betting against the U.S. stock market.

[NorthSideSox72]

And over the last 10 years, how many times would I have been right in calling "Bubble"? If I'd had the money to invest, I could have made an absolute fortune betting against the housing market from 2005-on, if I was a little bit patient.

 

Right now, I'd be betting against China and betting against the U.S. stock market.

Most of the folks I talk to see the broader equity markets more or less flat in 2010 (but higher vols for short periods adding some erratic moves).

 

By the way, you want a long term bet that will beat the market?

 

Water.

 

[Balta1701]

Water.

Water is really a complicated bet though, because there's more government interference in that market than almost any other, and governments are willing to do stupid economic things to make sure that their citizens don't have to pay higher water bills directly (case in point, San Diego building desal plants).

[Balta1701]

You know, if this system actually worked the way capitalism is supposed to, then pretty much every wall-street firm out there would have been wiped out by having their prices under-cut by competition. They can thank their lobbyists for making sure that doesn't happen.

What should have been a profitable quarter a Lazard Ltd. turned into a surprising loss due to the investment bank paying its people big bonuses.

 

The firm doled out $616 million in compensation and benefits to about 2,300 employees last quarter, or more than triple the amount handed out in the same period in 2008. It was a consequence, Lazard said, of a decision to pay more bonuses in cash and accelerate some deferred cash awards from a prior year. But so great was the firm's generosity that compensation costs overwhelmed quarterly revenues and resulted in a net loss of about $55 million for the fourth quarter. The charges also almost wiped out full-year profits.

 

Lazard Chief Executive Kenneth Jacobs, who took over from the late Bruce Wasserstein last fall, argued that he had no choice but to pay his people to protect and build the franchise. Lazard was one of the few major Wall Street firms to avoid government bailout assistance.

[NorthSideSox72]

Water is really a complicated bet though, because there's more government interference in that market than almost any other, and governments are willing to do stupid economic things to make sure that their citizens don't have to pay higher water bills directly (case in point, San Diego building desal plants).

Emerging markets. Water tech of all kinds. I'll stake myself on this one - pretty sure that water is the next big world resource problem, after the current wave of alt energy.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

http://247wallst.com/2010/02/04/us-recessi...nted-by-824000/

 

Holy crap.

 

What does that mean for April until now?

 

We could EASILY see 12% UE #'s and 20%+ on the U6.

 

Oh but wait... no we won't. Why? Because the 824,000+ have already given up.

Oddly enough, when the numbers came out today, the U6 (underemployed and worker discouraged included) went DOWN about a full point. It was an odd set of data today - UE down to 9.7% from 10.1%, U6 down by a point from 17+ to 16+, and December jobs revised up by 60,000 added. But on the other hand, January lost 20,000 (consenses was for a gain of 5,000), and new fillings was slightly higher than expected. Also interesting, temp employment unexpectedly jumped in January when it was expected to fall, and average work week went up by .1 hours. Then there was the 800k revision for last year overall.

 

So, it looks like 2009 was worse than we originally thought jobs-wise, but so far, 2010 is looking decent. Still probably not enough to get good momentum going, though.

 

[Rex Kickass]

So job losses of 20K last month, the U3 (to 9.7%) and the U6 (to 16.5%) both drop... because it turns out that annual adjustment ended up overcounting job losses.

 

More jobs created than we thought in November, more jobs lost than we thought in December. Fairly mixed numbers, it seems.

[Balta1701]

Emerging markets. Water tech of all kinds. I'll stake myself on this one - pretty sure that water is the next big world resource problem, after the current wave of alt energy.

I'm struggling to see how the issues you cite, particularly "Water tech of all kinds" is going to drive the price of water up and not down. I can see how emerging markets will drive demand upwards, but a lot of water tech is now devoted to producing reasonable supplies of clean drinking water at low cost, since the lack of that kills a couple million people per year.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm struggling to see how the issues you cite, particularly "Water tech of all kinds" is going to drive the price of water up and not down. I can see how emerging markets will drive demand upwards, but a lot of water tech is now devoted to producing reasonable supplies of clean drinking water at low cost, since the lack of that kills a couple million people per year.

OH jeez, sorry, that's not what I meant. I meant investing in water BUSINESS - technology and systems for refining, filtering, cleaning, desalinating, and conserving water. There are ETFs that specifically trade companies that do that sort of thing, which I think are very good long term bets.

 

[kapkomet]

OH jeez, sorry, that's not what I meant. I meant investing in water BUSINESS - technology and systems for refining, filtering, cleaning, desalinating, and conserving water. There are ETFs that specifically trade companies that do that sort of thing, which I think are very good long term bets.

 

 

That's my "other" opportunity, sort of. Water towers. All cash, construction business. Yea, no debt at all.

[Cknolls]

Most of the folks I talk to see the broader equity markets more or less flat in 2010 (but higher vols for short periods adding some erratic moves).

 

By the way, you want a long term bet that will beat the market?

 

Water.

 

 

Water for sure. Its the new oil.