Financial News

[Texsox]

Most conservatives here do call out Republicans when they mess up. That pretty much makes that a moot point

 

 

True. Except both sides start differing as to what is, and what is not, a "screw up".

[BigSqwert]

Dow Repeats Great Depression Pattern: Charts

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is repeating a pattern that appeared just before markets fell during the Great Depression, Daryl Guppy, CEO at Guppytraders.com, told CNBC Monday.

 

“Those who don’t remember history are doomed to repeat it…there was a head and shoulders pattern that developed before the Depression in 1929, then with the recovery in 1930 we had another head and shoulders pattern that preceded a fall in the market, and in the current Dow situation we see an exact repeat of that environment,” Guppy said.

 

The Dow retreated 457.33 points, or 4.5 percent last week, to close at 9,686 Friday. Guppy said a Dow fall below 9,800 confirmed the head and shoulders pattern.

 

The Shanghai Composite is seeing a very rapid collapse, falling below 2,500, which suggests the major fall in the Dow, he added.

 

In the European markets, Guppy says Frankfurt's Dax is witnessing a different pattern to London's FTSE.

 

Guppy uses the broad trading band as measurement- giving the Dax a downsize target of 1,500. The same head and shoulders pattern seen in the Dow can also being seen in the FTSE, he added.

[southsider2k5]

Here comes the double dip...

[NorthSideSox72]

Even if you believe the markets and the economy are headed for a double dip, the fundamentals and causation of the Great Depression are nothing like the problems we have right now. Two very different animals. This is why technical traders often get the short run right, but the long run wrong, and why technical trading is therefore much more useful for day traders. A big fall is of course possible, but these situations are very different.

 

[Y2HH]

Even if you believe the markets and the economy are headed for a double dip, the fundamentals and causation of the Great Depression are nothing like the problems we have right now. Two very different animals. This is why technical traders often get the short run right, but the long run wrong, and why technical trading is therefore much more useful for day traders. A big fall is of course possible, but these situations are very different.

 

I agree 100%.

[NorthSideSox72]

So, just after the big drops and some people seeming to be sure a 2nd dip is coming... the market was up a little yesterday, and is up a lot today, despite having basically no news flow. Teh markets are a fickle thing.

 

[Cknolls]

So, just after the big drops and some people seeming to be sure a 2nd dip is coming... the market was up a little yesterday, and is up a lot today, despite having basically no news flow. Teh markets are a fickle thing.

 

 

It is called putting in time on the side before next leg down to 940-950.

Edited July 7, 2010 by Cknolls

[NorthSideSox72]

It is called putting in time on the side before next leg down to 940-950.

Its called that if you think that's what's going to happen. It might.

 

But explain this to me... if you really think the market knows globally that its going there... what purpose does "time on the side" serve? Why wait for the rest of the crowd to jump out, why not jump out now? There's a logical flaw in this assumption.

 

[Y2HH]

Its called that if you think that's what's going to happen. It might.

 

But explain this to me... if you really think the market knows globally that its going there... what purpose does "time on the side" serve? Why wait for the rest of the crowd to jump out, why not jump out now? There's a logical flaw in this assumption.

 

That'd be because it's all guessing, only the people who guess don't like to call it guessing...they like to call it skill. But that only applies if they're right, despite them taking no action to very little action to back their bold claims. Now, if they're right, they'll brag to you about that one time they called it, however, if they're not, they never mention it again.

 

Here is why I say this:

 

IF these people making these bold and certain market calls weren't guessing, they wouldn't be 1) here, 2) talking to you/us about it, 3) typing themselves

 

Why? And please, Y2HH, explain reasons 1, 2 and 3 for us!

 

Well, most certainly!

 

1) Because they'd be vacationing on one of their 5 yachts, complete with a helipad.

2) See 1.

3) Because they'd be so unbelievably rich, they could hire someone to type for them on diamond encrusted computers from the South of France on their Yacht named "Market Timer".

 

Simple fact is, if you know what a market is going to do, you'd be a billionaire many times over. That includes knowing when markets are going to 'dip' or 'jump' or 'correct'. Furthermore, if you know these things but are NOT a billionaire, that means you are a f***ing moron many times over and should consider drowning yourself in the tears of a clown.

[Cknolls]

Its called that if you think that's what's going to happen. It might.

 

But explain this to me... if you really think the market knows globally that its going there... what purpose does "time on the side" serve? Why wait for the rest of the crowd to jump out, why not jump out now? There's a logical flaw in this assumption.

 

 

Because you assume it is all about price. It is not. Time is MORE important than price, but price is the final arbiter.

[Cknolls]

That'd be because it's all guessing, only the people who guess don't like to call it guessing...they like to call it skill. But that only applies if they're right, despite them taking no action to very little action to back their bold claims. Now, if they're right, they'll brag to you about that one time they called it, however, if they're not, they never mention it again.

 

Here is why I say this:

 

IF these people making these bold and certain market calls weren't guessing, they wouldn't be 1) here, 2) talking to you/us about it, 3) typing themselves

 

Why? And please, Y2HH, explain reasons 1, 2 and 3 for us!

 

Well, most certainly!

 

1) Because they'd be vacationing on one of their 5 yachts, complete with a helipad.

2) See 1.

3) Because they'd be so unbelievably rich, they could hire someone to type for them on diamond encrusted computers from the South of France on their Yacht named "Market Timer".

 

Simple fact is, if you know what a market is going to do, you'd be a billionaire many times over. That includes knowing when markets are going to 'dip' or 'jump' or 'correct'. Furthermore, if you know these things but are NOT a billionaire, that means you are a f***ing moron many times over and should consider drowning yourself in the tears of a clown.

 

 

Just keep dollar cost averaging and you will be back to 2007 levels by 2025. Guessing has worked for the last 15 years, so there is probably a little more to it.

[NorthSideSox72]

Because you assume it is all about price. It is not. Time is MORE important than price, but price is the final arbiter.

That still makes no sense.

 

You are saying the DOW will make a slide in the next few days. If you know this for a fact, you will sell now and short now. Waiting only ensures you will lose money. Therefore, if the markets "know" this, they wouldn't have rallied up big today.

 

Now if you are talking long time windows, like months or years, then time is a much bigger issue as it relates to where the money goes.

 

[Rex Kickass]

So, just after the big drops and some people seeming to be sure a 2nd dip is coming... the market was up a little yesterday, and is up a lot today, despite having basically no news flow. Teh markets are a fickle thing.

 

And now the same "Double Dip" tech ticker on Yahoo Finance which has been all doom and gloom all rally long is now saying that we've hit bottom and blah blah blah.

 

Market spin has got to be some of the most reactionary stuff ever.

[Y2HH]

Just keep dollar cost averaging and you will be back to 2007 levels by 2025. Guessing has worked for the last 15 years, so there is probably a little more to it.

 

This would only be true if you bought high and now have to average it down. A good buyer/investor of stocks (buy and hold) doesn't buy high, they buy bargins.

 

For example, I bought 500 shares of Casey's at 11 years back when nobody wanted it. Why would I dollar cost average that? It's currently trading at 36 and has been paying a dividend (albeit it a small div, its #1 in it's class), for years.

 

I did the same for Bank of Hawaii, bought at 14...currently at 49.

 

Coke...bought at 39, currently at 51.

 

So I'm way ahead and have been for years, despite the great recession. All that really was, was another opportunity to buy. More examples -- bought Bank of America during the crash at 4. It's way above that now, needless to say. While everyone else was selling it during the "great recession" and the doom and gloom on financials, I was buying.

 

An example of what someone would want to buy, right now? Nobody wants Pfizer -- it's trading at 14. Now is when you buy Pfizer for a buy and hold -- not 5 years from now when its back up at 30.

 

Another buy right now is FE. At a 10 P/E ratio paying a 6% dividend. An energy company with solid fundamentals and ratings, and everyones bearish about it...fine...that means I'll be bullish about it BEFORE the bears disappear.

 

No matter where a market is, high or low, there ARE bargin stocks out there to buy and hold...you just have to know how to find them.

 

I have no doubt trading can yield money, but it's like gambling in many regards...but all that said, I maintain the following.

 

If a person knows when a market will rise and fall -- and isn't a billionaire after a decade of knowing these things -- they need to reassess their station in life, because it means they're bad. If a person knows these things, but still cant turn hundreds into thousands and thousands into millions and millions into billions...they're too stupid to be involved in the market in the first place.

 

If I knew when the market was going to rise and fall -- I'd be making millions per year, EASY.

 

Why am I not? Because I don't pretend to know when the market will rise and fall with spot on precision, I just know good companies when I see them, and I invest in those good companies...long.

Edited July 8, 2010 by Y2HH

[NorthSideSox72]

And we're up yet again today.

 

[Cknolls]

And we're up yet again today.

 

 

Are you serious with this post? Pre market. Come on....

[Cknolls]

This would only be true if you bought high and now have to average it down. A good buyer/investor of stocks (buy and hold) doesn't buy high, they buy bargins.

 

For example, I bought 500 shares of Casey's at 11 years back when nobody wanted it. Why would I dollar cost average that? It's currently trading at 36 and has been paying a dividend (albeit it a small div, its #1 in it's class), for years.

 

I did the same for Bank of Hawaii, bought at 14...currently at 49.

 

Coke...bought at 39, currently at 51.

 

So I'm way ahead and have been for years, despite the great recession. All that really was, was another opportunity to buy. More examples -- bought Bank of America during the crash at 4. It's way above that now, needless to say. While everyone else was selling it during the "great recession" and the doom and gloom on financials, I was buying.

 

An example of what someone would want to buy, right now? Nobody wants Pfizer -- it's trading at 14. Now is when you buy Pfizer for a buy and hold -- not 5 years from now when its back up at 30.

 

Another buy right now is FE. At a 10 P/E ratio paying a 6% dividend. An energy company with solid fundamentals and ratings, and everyones bearish about it...fine...that means I'll be bullish about it BEFORE the bears disappear.

 

 

 

No matter where a market is, high or low, there ARE bargin stocks out there to buy and hold...you just have to know how to find them.

 

I have no doubt trading can yield money, but it's like gambling in many regards...but all that said, I maintain the following.

 

If a person knows when a market will rise and fall -- and isn't a billionaire after a decade of knowing these things -- they need to reassess their station in life, because it means they're bad. If a person knows these things, but still cant turn hundreds into thousands and thousands into millions and millions into billions...they're too stupid to be involved in the market in the first place.

 

If I knew when the market was going to rise and fall -- I'd be making millions per year, EASY.

 

Why am I not? Because I don't pretend to know when the market will rise and fall with spot on precision, I just know good companies when I see them, and I invest in those good companies...long.

 

 

Keep up the good work.

[NorthSideSox72]

Are you serious with this post? Pre market. Come on....

Well yes I was serious, because the market was... ya know... up. And I wasn't talking pre-open either. broader markets were up just after the open (when I posted), and have been all day.

 

[Y2HH]

Keep up the good work.

 

See, I wouldn't really call what I do work -- as it's easy and doesn't take skill, all it really takes is noticing the obvious we usually ignore. I use publicly available information and invest based on what I see the company doing, and where I see them going. For example, a company that holds tremendous debt, with a history of never paying it is a company I'd tend to avoid unless they were a very good reason for the debt (acquisitions, etc.)

 

Where I get the ideas of what to invest in is even more simple -- the things right in front of me. Such as my investment in Casey's General Stores (Gas Stations), I got the idea from the numerous road trips/camping trips I tend to take and noticed tons of these things popping up in remote areas where people almost HAVE to stop for gas, etc. I thought, wow, this company has a great idea here using remote locations...so I looked them up.

 

Another example is my investment in Conagra Foods -- looking through my refrigerator, like 70% of the things in it are from Conagra...I figured, hell, this company is everywhere and nobody even knows it! I didn't know it until I went out of my way to actually look.

 

The things we tend to use everyday are the companies I look to invest in. Products around our desk at work, or at home...most are publicly traded and most people don't even consider investing in them, yet they buy these products ALL THE TIME.

 

I prefer the set it and forget it mentality when it comes to my money -- my money works for me, not the other way around, as I already have a full time job at Blue Cross Blue Shield, I don't need another full time job investing day to day via trades. Thankfully I had these investments, because when it comes to the rainy day money, boy did me and my wife need it this year -- one thing after another. But in the end, that's what it was/is there for, peace of mind.

Edited July 8, 2010 by Y2HH

[Balta1701]

Wow, while I've been on roller coasters, the AEI started publishing writings about the danger of looming deflation. Either the world's gone completely crazy and left is again right, or they think there's a real chance of a long period of deflation and they didn't want to be caught without having said it.

[Balta1701]

Well I never...

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, whose endorsement of George W. Bush’s 2001 tax cuts helped persuade Congress to pass them, said lawmakers should allow the cuts to expire at the end of the year.

 

“They should follow the law and let them lapse,” Greenspan said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Conversations with Judy Woodruff,” citing a need for the tax revenue to reduce the federal budget deficit.

[KipWellsFan]

Well I never...

 

Friggin' Greenspan, always wanting to spread the wealth, haven't you ever heard of spending cuts!

[Jenksismyhero]

Well I never...

 

Ha. Yeah. Cuz someone didn't just spend 750 billion...

[Balta1701]

Ha. Yeah. Cuz someone didn't just spend 750 billion...

And, as always, $750 billion > $1.3 trillion + $600 million.

[Jenksismyhero]

And, as always, $750 billion > $1.3 trillion + $600 million.

 

I assume those are war totals? Which were over 10 years of time, and which were spent during one of the highest economic times we've had? Yeah, kinda the same.

 

Both are/were waste IMO, btw.

Edited July 15, 2010 by Jenksismybitch