Financial News

[Balta1701]

Things that never happened in the U.S.

China’s stress tests of banks will assess the risk that a possible slump in property prices may strain developers’ finances and cause homebuyers to default, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

 

The banking regulator told lenders to include worst-case scenarios of prices dropping 50 percent to 60 percent in cities where they have risen excessively, the person said, declining to be identified because the regulator’s requirement hasn’t been publicly announced. Previous stress tests carried out in the past year assumed home-price declines of as much as 30 percent.

[Balta1701]

To steal a line from Timothy Geithner...Welcome to the recovery!

 

Worth noting...the Private sector added some 75,000 jobs. The job losses were entirely due to government cutbacks...2/3 of them were Census jobs, but another 50,000 public employees were laid off.

[bigruss]

Bought my first stock today, so Im pretty anxious to see how it turns out and hoping I didnt f*** up my bank account

 

I went with some high paying dividends who are showing a bit of risk but have potential, and since Im in it for the long haul I feel I can take that risk now.

[Rex Kickass]

To steal a line from Timothy Geithner...Welcome to the recovery!

 

Worth noting...the Private sector added some 75,000 jobs. The job losses were entirely due to government cutbacks...2/3 of them were Census jobs, but another 50,000 public employees were laid off.

 

Wait, I thought smaller government would lead to more jobs?

 

[Cknolls]

To steal a line from Timothy Geithner...Welcome to the recovery!

 

Worth noting...the Private sector added some 75,000 jobs. The job losses were entirely due to government cutbacks...2/3 of them were Census jobs, but another 50,000 public employees were laid off.

 

 

And june was revised down 51000. Pretty weak. But that's all they have. Could be worse.

[mr_genius]

I was reading somewhere that just to keep up with new people entering the workforce (new grads, immigrants, ect) the US needs to create 125,000 jobs a month. The economy isn't making up any ground on unemployment.

[southsider2k5]

Bought my first stock today, so Im pretty anxious to see how it turns out and hoping I didnt f*** up my bank account

 

I went with some high paying dividends who are showing a bit of risk but have potential, and since Im in it for the long haul I feel I can take that risk now.

 

I hope it wasn't HP...

[lostfan]

Illinois Does a Few Adult Films To Make Ends Meet

[bigruss]

I hope it wasn't HP...

Haha nope.

[southsider2k5]

Illinois Does a Few Adult Films To Make Ends Meet

 

The sad thing is that with Blago as gov, it would have totally been possible...

[Balta1701]

Of course, her nomination will die with a filibuster like every nomination should, but this is at least a fight worth having.

WH (& others) indicate Elizabeth Warren 2 be nominated next week to head Consumer Financial Protection Agency. Kudos 2 all who worked 4 her.

[Balta1701]

Every so often in this thread we wind up noting when the peak of foreclosure sales is going to wind up being.

If you're waiting for relief on the foreclosure front, keep waiting. RealtyTrac says foreclosure notices rose 4% last month, the 17th straight month filings have exceeded 300,000. And RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga tells MarketWatch News Break that foreclosures may not peak until 2011. Listen to News Break and find out what states are still suffering. You may be surprised.

[NorthSideSox72]

Every so often in this thread we wind up noting when the peak of foreclosure sales is going to wind up being.

Eh, they've been saying late 2010 for a while now, early 2011 wouldn't be too far off. The general picture hasn't changed much in the past year, in terms of the approximate timeframe. Sure will be nice to get past that peak though, instead of just being happy about decelerration.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Pimco chief sez more stimulus pleez, for the housez.

 

Wants to auto-refi all FNMA/FMAC mortgages, to provide $50B-$60B more money into the economy and prop up home values.

 

[Balta1701]

Pimco chief sez more stimulus pleez, for the housez.

 

Wants to auto-refi all FNMA/FMAC mortgages, to provide $50B-$60B more money into the economy and prop up home values.

Significant numbers of refinancing: good. Propping up home values with taxpayer dollars; fails every time.

 

(worth noting...the Administration could have pulled something effective as stimulus in terms of a refinancing program a year and a half ago, but the HAMP program has been perhaps the most abject failure of anything they've done).

[NorthSideSox72]

Significant numbers of refinancing: good. Propping up home values with taxpayer dollars; fails every time.

 

(worth noting...the Administration could have pulled something effective as stimulus in terms of a refinancing program a year and a half ago, but the HAMP program has been perhaps the most abject failure of anything they've done).

I think his overall plan is good, but it requires also revamping Fannie and Freddie to be operationally solid in order to work.

 

I also still think that one of the best stimulus ideas they could have implemented was buying property outright. They could still attempt that - some localities are doing it anyway.

 

[Cknolls]

Significant numbers of refinancing: good. Propping up home values with taxpayer dollars; fails every time.

 

(worth noting...the Administration could have pulled something effective as stimulus in terms of a refinancing program a year and a half ago, but the HAMP program has been perhaps the most abject failure of anything they've done).

 

 

How about "advising" the banks to lend/refi mortgages @ 1% over 10 yr yields? Who in their right mind would not apply/refi their mortgage for that. Currently that would be in the 3.5% area. Sounds like a no brainer. Banks still make over 3% and people get to keep their houses and pump their savings into the economy.

[southsider2k5]

I think his overall plan is good, but it requires also revamping Fannie and Freddie to be operationally solid in order to work.

 

I also still think that one of the best stimulus ideas they could have implemented was buying property outright. They could still attempt that - some localities are doing it anyway.

 

The biggest problem with the refi scam is that you set up an 80's S&L collapse when interest rates recover. You can't be making 3% on your mortgages when you are paying 6% on your savings.

[NorthSideSox72]

The biggest problem with the refi scam is that you set up an 80's S&L collapse when interest rates recover. You can't be making 3% on your mortgages when you are paying 6% on your savings.

No one is going to be paying 6% on savings any time soon, unless inflation gets out of control later. And if that happens, the markets will be rising quickly too. Keep in mind also, people don't stay in their homes nearly as long nowadays, so mortgage life is much shorter.

 

[Balta1701]

No one is going to be paying 6% on savings any time soon, unless inflation gets out of control later. And if that happens, the markets will be rising quickly too. Keep in mind also, people don't stay in their homes nearly as long nowadays, so mortgage life is much shorter.

I wouldn't be surprised if that has changed since 2007...that the people who still have their houses have actually been there a lot longer...because it's difficult to sell a $400k house when you have a $500k mortgage on it.

 

There is good reason to think that this effect, housing-lock, has been a substantial contributor to the persistence of unemployment and the rise in long-term unemployment concentrated in areas of heavy housing declines...because normally, in a free society like this one, you expect that if one area is depressed while another is growing, there will be population flow to balance that out.

[NorthSideSox72]

I wouldn't be surprised if that has changed since 2007...that the people who still have their houses have actually been there a lot longer...because it's difficult to sell a $400k house when you have a $500k mortgage on it.

 

There is good reason to think that this effect, housing-lock, has been a substantial contributor to the persistence of unemployment and the rise in long-term unemployment concentrated in areas of heavy housing declines...because normally, in a free society like this one, you expect that if one area is depressed while another is growing, there will be population flow to balance that out.

Oh of course its a phenomenon right now. But the overall trend will still be people moving more often, because people are moving to other cities for jobs more often as well. Society is more mobile. I don't see a recession stopping that trend entirely, in the long haul.

 

[Balta1701]

Oh of course its a phenomenon right now. But the overall trend will still be people moving more often, because people are moving to other cities for jobs more often as well. Society is more mobile. I don't see a recession stopping that trend entirely, in the long haul.

Just out of curiosity, do you know if there's a way to quantify that effect? I can't figure out where I'd look for this one, and I think you're going to wind up being right when you compare to 40 years ago (when people would leave school, get a job, and then keep that job), but perhaps down from 10 years ago (thanks to government policies encouraging homeownership, rising energy costs, wage stagnation, and now the housing bubble).

[NorthSideSox72]

Just out of curiosity, do you know if there's a way to quantify that effect? I can't figure out where I'd look for this one, and I think you're going to wind up being right when you compare to 40 years ago (when people would leave school, get a job, and then keep that job), but perhaps down from 10 years ago (thanks to government policies encouraging homeownership, rising energy costs, wage stagnation, and now the housing bubble).

I'd agree that its well up from 40, and down a bit over 10, which is what I was getting at with trends. I have no solid data for you, this is just knowing that, in general, certain things keep increasing - jobs that can be done from anywhere, people willing to move for jobs, and populations shifting west and south. I don't see any of those things abating, and the recession itself will exacerbate some aspects of it (because people are desperate for jobs, anywhere). And then of course the people who can do so, are re-financing at a fast pace.

 

That's why I think, long run, the typical mortgage life will be more year 2000-ish than 1960-ish or 1980-ish.

 

[Balta1701]

I'd agree that its well up from 40, and down a bit over 10, which is what I was getting at with trends. I have no solid data for you, this is just knowing that, in general, certain things keep increasing - jobs that can be done from anywhere, people willing to move for jobs, and populations shifting west and south. I don't see any of those things abating, and the recession itself will exacerbate some aspects of it (because people are desperate for jobs, anywhere). And then of course the people who can do so, are re-financing at a fast pace.

 

That's why I think, long run, the typical mortgage life will be more year 2000-ish than 1960-ish or 1980-ish.

I'd guess that in the next 20 years, the trends from the last 10 years would probably be more dominant. There's really little that can be done to make the average worker's job situation more insecure than it currently is, in a way that would drive additional mobility, but the trends from the last decade (soaring energy/moving costs, deteriorating worker conditions, lack of other job options, severely disturbed housing market, strongly anti-worker government policy) will escalate.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'd guess that in the next 20 years, the trends from the last 10 years would probably be more dominant. There's really little that can be done to make the average worker's job situation more insecure than it currently is, in a way that would drive additional mobility, but the trends from the last decade (soaring energy/moving costs, deteriorating worker conditions, lack of other job options, severely disturbed housing market, strongly anti-worker government policy) will escalate.

Among the bolded, the last one is just not true. You are right about the others, but only one of them makes people less mobile - the housing market. The others make people MORE likely to move for better jobs, lower cost of living, lower taxes, lower energy costs. And the housing market simply will not and cannot stay this bad for 10 years, there is just no way. The population in this country is still increasing, existing homes are aging, and mortgage rates will stay relatively low for at least another few years.