Financial News

[Rex Kickass]

Unemployment claims fell again - this time to 450,000 from 453,000. A small drop, but most economists were expecting an increase because of adjustments from the labor day holiday.

[southsider2k5]

holy sh*t.

 

how is it that we had this perfect balance in 1999-2001 where we were running a surplus, and ever since then both sides have been destroying it.

 

we can't keep cutting taxes for anyone/everyone and we can't keep spending like crazy.

 

Why cant we go back to the tax rates of 1999-2001 and back to those spending levels too?

 

It was a classic bubble. Why does the left always forget the recession that followed that?

[StrangeSox]

Senate passes "Small Business Bill" with the help of 2 GOP senators.

[NorthSideSox72]

Unexpectedly high jump in new home starts reported.

 

This is actually bad new, IMO. Still far too much inventory on the market, we need this number to continue declining. Real health will be seen if existing home sales rise (that report is due later this week, I believe).

 

[Balta1701]

Unexpectedly high jump in new home starts reported.

 

This is actually bad new, IMO. Still far too much inventory on the market, we need this number to continue declining. Real health will be seen if existing home sales rise (that report is due later this week, I believe).

Although it's a big percentage increase...part of the reason it's a big percentage increase is that the number is currently so depressed that small changes produce large percentage increases. Take a look.

 

 

It is certainly reasonable to think that there needs to be more decline beyond where we currently are, but it's not like we're sitting at a high point as it is.

 

Real home sales are likely to do some sort of bounce-back, because they'd have been slightly depressed by people rushing to close in time for the Housing tax credit expiration. A small recovery would simply be things returning closer to the point they would have been without the government intervention.

[NorthSideSox72]

Although it's a big percentage increase...part of the reason it's a big percentage increase is that the number is currently so depressed that small changes produce large percentage increases. Take a look.

 

 

It is certainly reasonable to think that there needs to be more decline beyond where we currently are, but it's not like we're sitting at a high point as it is.

 

Real home sales are likely to do some sort of bounce-back, because they'd have been slightly depressed by people rushing to close in time for the Housing tax credit expiration. A small recovery would simply be things returning closer to the point they would have been without the government intervention.

Well good, that new home starts number needs to stay low for a while, for the overall health of the housing market.

 

[southsider2k5]

Unexpectedly high jump in new home starts reported.

 

This is actually bad new, IMO. Still far too much inventory on the market, we need this number to continue declining. Real health will be seen if existing home sales rise (that report is due later this week, I believe).

 

Its not actually bad news in that respect if you look inside the numbers. Apartments and condo starts were up 30%+ for the second straight month. Single family home building permits were actually down 1.2%. The number is very skewed by the apartment building.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Is it wrong to want the housing market in Orlando to remain depressed until my family can move down there so that we can get a nice house for cheap?

[NorthSideSox72]

Is it wrong to want the housing market in Orlando to remain depressed until my family can move down there so that we can get a nice house for cheap?

Well, if it makes you feel any better, FL and CA were by far the hardest hit in the housing crisis, so I don't think they will be recovering with any real strength for some time.

 

[Balta1701]

Well, if it makes you feel any better, FL and CA were by far the hardest hit in the housing crisis, so I don't think they will be recovering with any real strength for some time.

The other important thing to note in the depressed housing market/new housing construction numbers is that we're not just dealing with a generalized excess of housing...we're dealing with huge excesses in housing in certain areas (CA, AZ, NV, FL) punctuated by moderate excesses of housing in other areas...with skyrocketing unemployment being a major way of transferring the housing problem from one area to another.

[Balta1701]

[Balta1701]

The flash crash report is finally out.

 

Why it's a friday document dump I can only guess. Maybe because they decided to include zero recommendations about how to prevent another one.

[southsider2k5]

The flash crash report is finally out.

 

Why it's a friday document dump I can only guess. Maybe because they decided to include zero recommendations about how to prevent another one.

 

The sad thing is that if they regulated the way I have been suggesting for years, they could prevent something like this. Because each of these marketplaces are independent, there is nothing that can be done to stop this from happening agian.

[Balta1701]

After a set of embarrassments, including foreclosing on homes that they didn't even own conducted through the foreclosure mill companies that have cropped up, Bank of America and GMAC have halted foreclosures in 23 states.

 

Why 23 states you might as? Why, because those are the 23 states that have rules regulating the process. The other states...eh, who cares.

[Balta1701]

I think this has to count as a win for the chart of the day.

 

[kapkomet]

I think this has to count as a win for the chart of the day.

 

 

 

Agreed, nicely done. Click the link - the way it's presented is really good, whatever you believe to be causes or solutions.

[bigruss]

The stock of the company I worked for over the summer went from around $100 a share to $120 in the past few months. I just got into investing this summer and apparently I missed an opportunity staring right at me.

Edited October 7, 2010 by bigruss22

[lostfan]

The stock of the company I worked for over the summer went from around $100 a share to $120 in the past few months. I just got into investing this summer and apparently I missed an opportunity staring right at me.

That happens a lot, especially now because a lot of companies were undervalued from everything crashing. 2008 would've been a good year to have $10,000 cash laying around because you could've gotten a lot of solid companies for like half their price, now everything is starting to recover.

 

2K5 you remember about a year ago in this thread around the time everything was bottoming out (but we didn't really know it was bottoming out yet) we were talking about CDs and savings interest rates and you said it'd be interesting to see what $1000 did in a regular CD vs. investing it in stocks? Or something like that? Man do I wish I had a bunch of cash to invest then!

[Balta1701]

Man do I wish I had a bunch of cash to invest then!

I did, and I really don't regret not having moved it into stocks, just like I don't regret having rented in 2003-2006 when in hindsight it was pathetically easy to spot the peak of the housing market if you believed it was a bubble.

 

I still think stocks are overvalued.

[lostfan]

I did, and I really don't regret not having moved it into stocks, just like I don't regret having rented in 2003-2006 when in hindsight it was pathetically easy to spot the peak of the housing market if you believed it was a bubble.

 

I still think stocks are overvalued.

Even if you bought it in 2008 and sold it all tomorrow morning you're probably still coming out with more than twice the amount of cash you started with, plus a few dividends.

[Balta1701]

Even if you bought it in 2008 and sold it all tomorrow morning you're probably still coming out with more than twice the amount of cash you started with, plus a few dividends.

I could say the exact same thing about having bought a condo in 2003 and sold in 2006.

[lostfan]

I could say the exact same thing about having bought a condo in 2003 and sold in 2006.

Yeah but odds are you'd have bought something else with that money whereas if you don't trust the stock market and think it's a bubble, it's not really that much of a risk if you buy a bunch of shares of a blue chip companies after a market crash/panic and then just cash in 2 years later. It's not a gamble, you know the stock is going to shoot back up from its depressed share price relatively fast, and you go in with that knowing you're going to sell (not hold) because you're already skeptical and think it's a bubble. When people sell their condo after 3 years it's usually because they're moving into another place (buying).

 

2¢

[southsider2k5]

That happens a lot, especially now because a lot of companies were undervalued from everything crashing. 2008 would've been a good year to have $10,000 cash laying around because you could've gotten a lot of solid companies for like half their price, now everything is starting to recover.

 

2K5 you remember about a year ago in this thread around the time everything was bottoming out (but we didn't really know it was bottoming out yet) we were talking about CDs and savings interest rates and you said it'd be interesting to see what $1000 did in a regular CD vs. investing it in stocks? Or something like that? Man do I wish I had a bunch of cash to invest then!

 

Yeah I remember that conversation, for some reason I was thinking we were somewhere around 8500 in the Dow, so I'd be up 30%, while people in CDs got about 3%. It seems like no one wanted to take up the other side of that bet.

 

All though with us back at about 11000, I'd be a seller now. I think stocks are building in a Republican win in the House, and I don't think it really matters fundamentally all that much right now over the medium term.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah but odds are you'd have bought something else with that money whereas if you don't trust the stock market and think it's a bubble, it's not really that much of a risk if you buy a bunch of shares of a blue chip companies after a market crash/panic and then just cash in 2 years later. It's not a gamble, you know the stock is going to shoot back up from its depressed share price relatively fast, and you go in with that knowing you're going to sell (not hold) because you're already skeptical and think it's a bubble. When people sell their condo after 3 years it's usually because they're moving into another place (buying).

 

2¢

 

Speaking of bubbles... Gold is ridiculous right now. Once the economy shows any real signs of recovery, gold is going to fall at least 50%, if not back to something like $500.

[lostfan]

Speaking of bubbles... Gold is ridiculous right now. Once the economy shows any real signs of recovery, gold is going to fall at least 50%, if not back to something like $500.

I have 50 shares of IAU (about $600-700, I don't remember what I paid for it though) but no way would I buy more of it right now at this inflated price, that's money that could be spent on some dividend stocks at a cheap price or even buy like 100 shares of AMD and wait for it to regain value in a couple of years (I think the company is worth a lot more than what it's trading for right now, less than $8)

Edited October 8, 2010 by lostfan