Financial News

[Balta1701]

Total is $1 Trillion. They are also buying $35 billion/mo in mortgage bonds if I read it correctly??

Didn't see the 2nd half of that, where did you get that bit?

[Cknolls]

Didn't see the 2nd half of that, where did you get that bit?

 

 

I have a financial website on my computer that does not allow me to copy and paste. Will try to find a way to post.

[NorthSideSox72]

I have a financial website on my computer that does not allow me to copy and paste. Will try to find a way to post.

Someone's reading their BB terminal.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Per CNN...

 

The central bank will buy $600 billion in long-term Treasuries over the next eight months, the Fed said Wednesday. The Fed also announced it will reinvest an additional $250 billion to $300 billion in Treasuries with the proceeds of its earlier investments.

 

So its $850B-$900B.

 

[StrangeSox]

Why is it being referred to as "QEII"?

[NorthSideSox72]

Why is it being referred to as "QEII"?

Quantitave Easing, Round II.

 

[Cknolls]

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/...icy_101103.html

[Balta1701]

Quantitave Easing, Round II.

It's also a pun...the QE2 is the "Queen Elizabeth 2" ocean liner.

[Balta1701]

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/...icy_101103.html

TY

[StrangeSox]

I got the pun part, I just couldn't find what it actually stood for. Thank you.

[Balta1701]

BTW, I wonder how much Bernanke politics there is in the timing of this announcement. It's been clear for months that it was possible, even likely, and it comes the day after the election.

[Balta1701]

Found this intriguing, CNBC floats Timmeh as a potential post-election Fall guy.

[NorthSideSox72]

Markets up big today, S&P 500 over 1220 for the first time since mid-2008.

 

[Balta1701]

Wow, a non-crappy employment number.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Wow, a non-crappy employment number.

Been a few of those lately. Plus some happy small business numbers. There are signs in the past couple months that maybe the recovery is picking up speed. But obviously its too early to say for sure, and it is certainly a delicate situation.

 

[Balta1701]

Been a few of those lately. Plus some happy small business numbers. There are signs in the past couple months that maybe the recovery is picking up speed. But obviously its too early to say for sure, and it is certainly a delicate situation.

Here's what the "Private sector only" job numbers look like. Upon a 3rd look, it's relatively consistent with hovering at 130-150-ish/month since March, with public sector losses imposed on top of it. It's about enough to maintain 9.6% but not enough to push that number down or to increase the overall employment/population ratio.

Pretty much constant, slow private sector growth and public sector job cuts since March. That's what, 8 months at that level?

[Balta1701]

Here's the "U6" (counting everything) number, graphically.

[Rex Kickass]

Should also note that August and September numbers were revised up a net 100k jobs total as well.

[NorthSideSox72]

Here's what the "Private sector only" job numbers look like. Upon a 3rd look, it's relatively consistent with hovering at 130-150-ish/month since March, with public sector losses imposed on top of it. It's about enough to maintain 9.6% but not enough to push that number down or to increase the overall employment/population ratio.

Pretty much constant, slow private sector growth and public sector job cuts since March. That's what, 8 months at that level?

Oh come on now mr. stats, you pick March because it includes the one obviously aberrant number - the one unusually high spike. Do it from April, and its a clearly positively moving trend. You could go back to Jan, or to last year, and see the trend obviously moving upward. The curve is moving in the right direction, its obvious from the graph, and that's all I was pointing at really. Also, there was a steep drop in UE claims two weeks ago, then a return to previous the next week, which may or may not be a trend starter (next week will tell for sure).

 

Look at that graph - you picked the one month out of two years to start your analysis that would result in the appearance of flat. Pick any other starting place since the bottom, and the trend is positive. This is the definition of cherry-picking.

 

[Balta1701]

Oh come on now mr. stats, you pick March because it includes the one obviously aberrant number - the one unusually high spike. Do it from April, and its a clearly positively moving trend. You could go back to Jan, or to last year, and see the trend obviously moving upward. The curve is moving in the right direction, its obvious from the graph, and that's all I was pointing at really. Also, there was a steep drop in UE claims two weeks ago, then a return to previous the next week, which may or may not be a trend starter (next week will tell for sure).

 

Look at that graph - you picked the one month out of two years to start your analysis that would result in the appearance of flat. Pick any other starting place since the bottom, and the trend is positive. This is the definition of cherry-picking.

You're probably right on the gradually increasing since May numbers. My brain didn't catch that visual part. I will grant you that point.

 

There have been steep drops in weekly UE claims repeatedly over the last 8 months or so, but each time it's been balanced out by unexpected increases.

[NorthSideSox72]

You're probably right on the gradually increasing since May numbers. My brain didn't catch that visual part. I will grant you that point.

 

There have been steep drops in weekly UE claims repeatedly over the last 8 months or so, but each time it's been balanced out by unexpected increases.

That graph is too small for my old eyes, but it looks like there is a general downward trend since August, with big fluctuations along the way. But its hard to say for sure if that is truly a sign of pushover or not, its probably too early to say. The general rate in the 3 or 4 week windows unfortunately hasn't changed much in the longer view, the entire graph.

 

I think over the next 2-4 weeks, we'll see if the recent trend (Sept-current) is really a trend at all.

 

I see a lot of harmony here between numbers. UE numbers with a slightly downward trend since August, jobs numbers upward trend since May, small biz data positive since May and bigger positive in past two reported months, and the major market indicies on a run since summer. That's a bunch of trends pointing in a good direction, I just hope it turns into something more.

 

[lostfan]

I like looking at my portfolio and seeing I made a bunch of money that day doing absolutely nothing. The markets have been loving the past two weeks for some reason.

 

I had 50 shares in a gold ETF that I didn't want anymore so I sold it and bought a small-cap dividend stock instead (WPC). I don't really know what the point of holding gold is right now if I bought it at a high price... might as well take the profit I've made off it and put it into something that pays and won't collapse as soon as the economy finally recovers.

[Balta1701]

The markets have been loving the past two weeks for some reason.

QE2.

[southsider2k5]

I like looking at my portfolio and seeing I made a bunch of money that day doing absolutely nothing. The markets have been loving the past two weeks for some reason.

 

I had 50 shares in a gold ETF that I didn't want anymore so I sold it and bought a small-cap dividend stock instead (WPC). I don't really know what the point of holding gold is right now if I bought it at a high price... might as well take the profit I've made off it and put it into something that pays and won't collapse as soon as the economy finally recovers.

 

The commodities are going crazy because of the hit in the dollar with the latest in Fed policy. Its going to be ugly when people are paying $3.50 at the pump again.

[lostfan]

QE2.

That's been known it was going to happen for a while now (you said earlier in the thread) but I don't know what to specifically attribute this to, it just started happening.