Financial News

[NorthSideSox72]

The red line is inventory, the blue line is year over year inventory. The red line plummetted and then spiked as a result of government policy. The Blue line has been more stable, as it should be, and is creeping upwards.

 

There's no way you can look at the red line since early 2008 and say it has trended downwards at all. And the year over year numbers suggest to me that inventory growth is likely in the near term, which would force prices down further.

 

You keep making this something its not. SS2K5 and I were pointing out a RECENT data point, as part of a RECENT set of data points indicating positive direction. You keep harping on 2008, or 2009, or earlier this year. Are you intentionally ignoring what we're saying, and just responding to what you think we'd say?

 

The YOY number is NOT a running average. Its a Year over Year comparison. So using it as a trend is not going to be useful in indicating future results.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

The red line is inventory, the blue line is year over year inventory. The red line plummetted and then spiked as a result of government policy. The Blue line has been more stable, as it should be, and is creeping upwards.

 

There's no way you can look at the red line since early 2008 and say it has trended downwards at all. And the year over year numbers suggest to me that inventory growth is likely in the near term, which would force prices down further.

 

Also adding here, you contradicted yourself. You pointed out the government action that prompted unnatural traffic in home buying... about a year ago. So, to no one's surprise, the YOY trend will look worse a year out, because of the unusually strong performance a year back. So the YOY trend actually tells you nothing of use.

 

[southsider2k5]

Also adding here, you contradicted yourself. You pointed out the government action that prompted unnatural traffic in home buying... about a year ago. So, to no one's surprise, the YOY trend will look worse a year out, because of the unusually strong performance a year back. So the YOY trend actually tells you nothing of use.

 

And it pretty well mirrors the drop after expiration of the tax credit.

[NorthSideSox72]

And it pretty well mirrors the drop after expiration of the tax credit.

Yes. The YOY line, in this case, is meaningless in terms of current trend or projection.

 

[Balta1701]

Lowest Weekly unemployment claims number since before the Lehman/AIG apocalypse. Still high though.

In the week ending Nov. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 407,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 441,000. The 4-week moving average was 436,000, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week's revised average of 443,500.

[NorthSideSox72]

Lowest Weekly unemployment claims number since before the Lehman/AIG apocalypse. Still high though.

Wow, that's a big drop. Especially staggering when you consider the expectation was for it to go up, to 442k from 440k.

 

Also, 425k is generally seen as an important boundary, where typically below that line means real job growth. This is the first report to be this low since June 2008.

 

I'd assume since it was such a big drop, it will rebound up a bit next period. But the general trend line has been going down for 3-4 months now, after staying more or less flat for the 6 months prior. Good to see.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Also, in news that sounds bad but is actually good for the current economy overall, new home sales dropped another 8%, 28% YOY, and is now down 80% from the peak of the boom. Story here.

 

New homes need to stay like that for another few years, hopefully. Then as the market strengthens, it should start to rebound.

 

[Balta1701]

This strikes me as potentially much more interesting than the diplomatic cables we've gotten so far.

Early next year, Julian Assange says, a major American bank will suddenly find itself turned inside out. Tens of thousands of its internal documents will be exposed on Wikileaks.org with no polite requests for executives’ response or other forewarnings. The data dump will lay bare the finance firm’s secrets on the Web for every customer, every competitor, every regulator to examine and pass judgment on.

 

When? Which bank? What documents? Cagey as always, Assange won’t say, so his claim is impossible to verify. But he has always followed through on his threats. Sitting for a rare interview in a London garden flat on a rainy November day, he compares what he is ready to unleash to the damning e-mails that poured out of the Enron trial: a comprehensive vivisection of corporate bad behavior. “You could call it the ecosystem of corruption,” he says, refusing to characterize the coming release in more detail. “But it’s also all the regular decision making that turns a blind eye to and supports unethical practices: the oversight that’s not done, the priorities of executives, how they think they’re fulfilling their own self-interest.”

[NorthSideSox72]

Today's reports...

 

Home prices for 3Q dropped 2%, after 4 straight quarterly gains including 4.6% the previous quarter. This was somewhat expected with the drop-off of gov't incentives, but still not great. Not a big worry point just yet with all the other recent positive data, but something to watch.

 

Consumer confidence jumped to a 5 month high of 54.1, up from 49.9 in October. Expectations were for a rise to 52. Markets rebounding on the report.

 

Jobless benefits will expire at midnight tonight for about 1-2 million people, barring Congressional action.

 

Black Friday weekend foot traffic was up from last year, but spending about flat.

 

[jasonxctf]

Black Friday Weekend Sales Rise 6.4%, $45 Billion in Spending

Monday, November 29, 2010

 

According to a National Retail Federation (NFR) survey conducted over the weekend by BIGresearch, more shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend - and spent more - than a year ago. With one of the biggest shopping days of the year under their belts, retailers have reason to smile, the NRF said.

 

According to the survey, 212 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 195 million last year. People also spent more, with the average shopper this weekend spending $365.34, up 6.4% from last year's $343.31. Total spending reached an estimated $45.0 billion, the NFR said.

 

"While Black Friday weekend is not always an indicator of holiday season performance, retailers should be encouraged that a focus on value and discretionary gifts has shoppers in the spirit to spend," said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. "As retailers look ahead to the first few weeks of December, it will be important for them to keep momentum going with savings and incentives that holiday shoppers simply can't pass up."

 

If it seems like Black Friday gets earlier every year, that's because it is. Many retailers opened their doors earlier than ever, and eager shoppers followed suit. According to the survey, the number of people who began their Black Friday shopping at midnight tripled this year from 3.3% last year to 9.5%in 2010. In fact, by 4 a.m. nearly one-fourth (24.0%) of Black Friday shoppers were already at the stores. Thanksgiving Day openings have also been a boon to the industry, as the number of people who shop on Thanksgiving - both online and in stores - has doubled over the past five years, from 10.3 million in 2005 to 22.3 million in 2010

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Black Friday Weekend Sales Rise 6.4%, $45 Billion in Spending

Monday, November 29, 2010

 

According to a National Retail Federation (NFR) survey conducted over the weekend by BIGresearch, more shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend - and spent more - than a year ago. With one of the biggest shopping days of the year under their belts, retailers have reason to smile, the NRF said.

 

According to the survey, 212 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 195 million last year. People also spent more, with the average shopper this weekend spending $365.34, up 6.4% from last year's $343.31. Total spending reached an estimated $45.0 billion, the NFR said.

 

"While Black Friday weekend is not always an indicator of holiday season performance, retailers should be encouraged that a focus on value and discretionary gifts has shoppers in the spirit to spend," said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. "As retailers look ahead to the first few weeks of December, it will be important for them to keep momentum going with savings and incentives that holiday shoppers simply can't pass up."

 

If it seems like Black Friday gets earlier every year, that's because it is. Many retailers opened their doors earlier than ever, and eager shoppers followed suit. According to the survey, the number of people who began their Black Friday shopping at midnight tripled this year from 3.3% last year to 9.5%in 2010. In fact, by 4 a.m. nearly one-fourth (24.0%) of Black Friday shoppers were already at the stores. Thanksgiving Day openings have also been a boon to the industry, as the number of people who shop on Thanksgiving - both online and in stores - has doubled over the past five years, from 10.3 million in 2005 to 22.3 million in 2010

Interesting, the reports earlier this week of brick-and-mortar stores showed flat sales. So the increase must have been big in cyberspace. Having an overall 6.4% increase is far bigger than the 0-2% bump I had seen quoted as likely. Nice to see.

 

[Balta1701]

Interesting, the reports earlier this week of brick-and-mortar stores showed flat sales. So the increase must have been big in cyberspace. Having an overall 6.4% increase is far bigger than the 0-2% bump I had seen quoted as likely. Nice to see.

I believe the store sales numbers were for last friday alone, while this number is for the full thanksgiving period (i.e. including Thursday and the weekend as well).

[NorthSideSox72]

I believe the store sales numbers were for last friday alone, while this number is for the full thanksgiving period (i.e. including Thursday and the weekend as well).

Ah, that makes sense, with the reports of the spreading out of Black Friday shopping... flat on the real day, increases the other days, for an overall increase.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Other reports today...

 

Private sector job growth in November at 93,000 (vs 58,000 expected), the highest in 3 years and the 10th consecutive month of growth in the ADP report. October number revised up nearly double from 43,000 to 82,000.

 

Senate failed to advance jobless benefits extension.

 

[Iwritecode]

Financial companies typically only move to fancier technology when it gives them a specific edge - they won't just employ new tech because its cool. If it works, especially for back and middle office systems where stability is key, they'll stick with it.

 

The problem is that when all the programmers that actually know the older languages start retiring there aren't many younger programmers to take over because they don't teach the older languages much anymore.

 

I got my current job because I'm only 33 and have been programming in Cobol for the last 12 years. I also know a little RPG and even assembler.

 

I think I was one of the last group of people to actually take those classes in college.

Edited December 1, 2010 by Iwritecode

[NorthSideSox72]

The problem is that when all the programmers that actually know the older languages start retiring there aren't many younger programmers to take over because they don't teach the older languages much anymore.

 

I got my current job because I'm only 33 and have been programming in Cobol for the last 12 years. I also know a little RPG and even assembler.

 

I think I was one of the last group of people to actually take those classes in college.

Yes, which is why there is still a good market for programmers in languages like that.

 

[Cknolls]

Today's reports...

 

Home prices for 3Q dropped 2%, after 4 straight quarterly gains including 4.6% the previous quarter. This was somewhat expected with the drop-off of gov't incentives, but still not great. Not a big worry point just yet with all the other recent positive data, but something to watch.

 

Consumer confidence jumped to a 5 month high of 54.1, up from 49.9 in October. Expectations were for a rise to 52. Markets rebounding on the report.

 

Jobless benefits will expire at midnight tonight for about 1-2 million people, barring Congressional action.

 

Black Friday weekend foot traffic was up from last year, but spending about flat.

 

 

A neutral reading of consumer confidence is 90-120. So very weak. Would not get excited until it reaches 120.

[NorthSideSox72]

A neutral reading of consumer confidence is 90-120. So very weak. Would not get excited until it reaches 120.

In this economy, nothing is worth getting excited about. I do however think its become clear in the past 2-3 months, via a plethora of generally positive trends, that the pace of recovery may be accelerating. That is a good thing.

 

[jasonxctf]

DOW is up nearly 250pts today

[Balta1701]

The first data from the "Audit the fed" amendment in Finreg is coming out. Others are sorting through the details, things like the Fed taking CCC rated loans back as collateral.

 

Interestingly, somehow, Verizon received about $800 million.

[mr_genius]

The problem is that when all the programmers that actually know the older languages start retiring there aren't many younger programmers to take over because they don't teach the older languages much anymore.

 

I got my current job because I'm only 33 and have been programming in Cobol for the last 12 years. I also know a little RPG and even assembler.

 

I think I was one of the last group of people to actually take those classes in college.

 

i think the computer science department at Illinois State still teaches mainframe stuff (COBOL, JCL, PL1)

[Jenksismyhero]

So, what are people's thoughts on foreign entities taking some of the Feds emergency funds? On the one hand, they paid it back with interest, so no loss. But on the other, there was potential for losing hundreds of billions if those banks closed. I didn't care for the original bank bailout, and I don't really like the idea that the Fed is becoming a world bank.

 

Edit: here's the link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4dd95e42-fd6d-11...l#axzz16xwmUz4S

Edited December 2, 2010 by Jenksismybitch

[Balta1701]

So, what are people's thoughts on foreign entities taking some of the Feds emergency funds? On the one hand, they paid it back with interest, so no loss. But on the other, there was potential for losing hundreds of billions if those banks closed. I didn't care for the original bank bailout, and I don't really like the idea that the Fed is becoming a world bank.

 

Edit: here's the link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4dd95e42-fd6d-11...l#axzz16xwmUz4S

I'm not sure how I feel about whether or not it should be legal...but I understand the motivation. If say, DB or someone like that falls, it doesn't matter if they're based in Germany, that takes out all the U.S. banks as well.

[Iwritecode]

Yes, which is why there is still a good market for programmers in languages like that.

 

You would think so. I kept my first job for as long as I did simply because I couldn't find another one. All the openings I saw were for newer programming languages.

 

I got my current job through a word-of-mouth from one of my ex co-workers.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

So, what are people's thoughts on foreign entities taking some of the Feds emergency funds? On the one hand, they paid it back with interest, so no loss. But on the other, there was potential for losing hundreds of billions if those banks closed. I didn't care for the original bank bailout, and I don't really like the idea that the Fed is becoming a world bank.

 

Edit: here's the link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4dd95e42-fd6d-11...l#axzz16xwmUz4S

TARP was a huge success, I still don't get why people have issues with it - other than the what-happens-after being really lame.

 

But that's an interesting point about foreign banks getting the money. I'm not sure how I feel about that just yet.