Official 2009-2010 NCAA Basketball Thread

[whitesoxfan99]

If they lose to Wisconsin, they're out. Their RPI is awful, and with 13/14 losses and losing 5 of their last 6, they'd have no shot.

 

Probably but the bottom of the bubble teams are truly awful. Here is Lunardi's current last 4 in, first four out and next four out. Also, RPI is a truly awful tool that I wish the committee would do away with. There are much better indicators (Kenpom, other statistical rankings) of a teams quality than RPI.

 

Last Four In

 

* Memphis

* Arizona State

* San Diego State

* Illinois

 

First Four Out

 

* Washington

* Seton Hall

* Rhode Island

* Ole Miss

 

Next Four Out

 

* Dayton

* UAB

* Mississippi State

* Minnesota

 

Can you really tell me any of the teams below Illinois are clearly more deserving. This is exactly why I am so against expansion btw. None of the last 4 in should really be in the tourney and none of the 8 teams after them should be either. Washington and Arizona St. are only even being mentioned because of how truly terrible the Pac 10 is and I still think that should be a one or two bid league. Expansion to 96 is so laughable. You can't even fill a field with 65 deserving teams (there is never 34 good at large teams and then you also have the 16 and 15 seeds which basically never have a shot at winning even a game).

Edited March 8, 2010 by whitesoxfan99

[LittleHurt05]

I think that if Minnesota makes the Big Ten final with wins over MSU & Purdue, they could easily snag one of those at-large bids as well.

Edited March 8, 2010 by LittleHurt05

[whitesoxfan99]

I think that if Minnesota makes the Big Ten final with wins over MSU & Purdue, they could easily snag one of those at-large bids as well.

 

Sure and obviously a lot of the above teams could make a run in their tourneys that would chance things but assuming Illinois loses to Wisconsin and none of those teams add big wins, a case could certainly be made for Illinois making the tourney over the other teams listed.

[whitesoxfan101]

If they lose to Wisconsin, they're out. Their RPI is awful, and with 13/14 losses and losing 5 of their last 6, they'd have no shot.

 

Obviously. If they lose to Wisconsin, they'll be 18-14, and their RPI (which is currently 75) will probably drop since it's a neutral game. I'm still not sure how they can even be in if they just beat Wisconsin, since if they do and lose to Ohio State, they'll be 19-14 with an RPI in the high 60's at best. They also have neutral floor losses to teams 99, 100, and 156 RPI, a road loss to 117 in the RPI, and a home loss to 78 in the RPI. Combine that with 5 losses in 6 games, and I honestly don't fully grasp how they are even close to in the tournament. Even two of their quality wins are against Michigan State without Lucas and against Wisconsin without Leuer. However, it seems like they'll be in with a win over the Badgers since the bubble is even worse than usual.

 

Probably but the bottom of the bubble teams are truly awful. Here is Lunardi's current last 4 in, first four out and next four out. Also, RPI is a truly awful tool that I wish the committee would do away with. There are much better indicators (Kenpom, other statistical rankings) of a teams quality than RPI.

 

Last Four In

 

* Memphis

* Arizona State

* San Diego State

* Illinois

 

First Four Out

 

* Washington

* Seton Hall

* Rhode Island

* Ole Miss

 

Next Four Out

 

* Dayton

* UAB

* Mississippi State

* Minnesota

 

Can you really tell me any of the teams below Illinois are clearly more deserving.

 

You could argue just about all of those teams belong in over Illinois. You could also argue Illinois belongs in over all of those teams though. That's why the bubble is such a mess every year, the last few spots are being fought for by anywhere from a dozen to 15 crappy teams that are hard to distinguish. The tournament could use a reduction in size more than an expansion, because there aren't really 65 teams that belong in it, and that's true every year.

 

The reason I say Illinois is for sure out with a loss to Wisconsin is 6 losses out of 7 to end the season is impossible to overlook, even if the last 12 games aren't as important anymore as the body of work, plus somebody is going to step up in their league tournament and/or somebody will be upset in theirs to allow a 1 bid league to get a 2nd bid, 2 bid league to get a 3rd, etc.

Edited March 8, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[Buehrle>Wood]

Probably but the bottom of the bubble teams are truly awful. Here is Lunardi's current last 4 in, first four out and next four out. Also, RPI is a truly awful tool that I wish the committee would do away with. There are much better indicators (Kenpom, other statistical rankings) of a teams quality than RPI.

The RPI is a great tool if you know how to use it. Your pure RPI doesn't matter much in the least bit, whether it be to the SC or determining quality. It's more or less used as a grouping tool.

[Brian]

Watching MAC title on ESPN 2. Cool seeing Drew Needham, one of the best freshmen in the nation, and Colin Nickerson doing well. Watching those guys in high school was fun.

[fathom]

Fairfield's going to burst someone's bubble if they upset Siena here.

[WHarris1]

Fairfield's going to burst someone's bubble if they upset Siena here.

Is Siena considered a tourney team if they lose? Looking around a bit, most things on ESPN like Bubble Watch and Bracket Math don't have them as an at-large team should they lose.

[ChWRoCk2]

Is Siena considered a tourney team if they lose? Looking around a bit, most things on ESPN like Bubble Watch and Bracket Math don't have them as an at-large team should they lose.

Jay Williams was talking about it on ESPN, said Lunardi said Siena would be out with a loss. Winner of this matchup is in and the loser is out.

 

Siena looks flat and doesn't seem to care out there.

[whitesoxfan99]

Fairfield's going to burst someone's bubble if they upset Siena here.

 

Siena's best win is against Northeastern and they got their asses kicked by every good team they played except for Temple.

[danman31]

Is Siena considered a tourney team if they lose? Looking around a bit, most things on ESPN like Bubble Watch and Bracket Math don't have them as an at-large team should they lose.

Their resume is basically the same as St. Mary's. At the very least it would be another team to consider for the bubble.

[whitesoxfan99]

Uh oh, Felix is going to be upset. Damian Johnson doesn't even make the Big 10 all defensive team and Kramer won defensive player of the year. I guess flopping all over the place and fouling people on every possession is the key to being defensive player of the year.

[fathom]

Uh oh, Felix is going to be upset. Damian Johnson doesn't even make the Big 10 all defensive team and Kramer won defensive player of the year. I guess flopping all over the place and fouling people on every possession is the key to being defensive player of the year.

 

I can't believe Mike Davis made it over Damian Johnson! Just kidding...I can't wait to see Kalin Lucas be listed way too high in postseason award voting.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Is there a more overrated player from the Big Ten than Kalin Lucas in the last decade?

[Rowand44]

Their resume is basically the same as St. Mary's. At the very least it would be another team to consider for the bubble.

St. Mary's has 2 rpi top 50 wins and Siena has 0, huuuuuuuuuuuge difference. No chance Siena gets in if they lose.

[fathom]

Is there a more overrated player from the Big Ten than Kalin Lucas in the last decade?

 

Nope, it's pathetic

[Brian]

St. Mary's has 2 rpi top 50 wins and Siena has 0, huuuuuuuuuuuge difference. No chance Siena gets in if they lose.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they got in based on reputation and they did win out right conference title. They just showed their resume and I would say no way they get in if they lose.

 

Great game. Go Stags!

[Rowand44]

MAAC championship going to OT. In other news, ODU wins the CAA crown and will be extremely dangerous in the big dance.

[danman31]

St. Mary's locks up their spot, likely costing a bubble spot to someone else. Ironically, the win over Gonzaga is pretty much enough to get them in without the auto bid anyway.

[whitesoxfan101]

Uh oh, Felix is going to be upset. Damian Johnson doesn't even make the Big 10 all defensive team and Kramer won defensive player of the year. I guess flopping all over the place and fouling people on every possession is the key to being defensive player of the year.

 

If you're white and you do that, you're a lock to get a lot of love from the media anyways. As for St. Mary's, they might have taken somebody's spot by beating Gonzaga tonight, but Lunardi had them in as an 11 before tonight's game (not among the last 4 in either), so it would have been very close.

Edited March 9, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[RockRaines]

Uh oh, Felix is going to be upset. Damian Johnson doesn't even make the Big 10 all defensive team and Kramer won defensive player of the year. I guess flopping all over the place and fouling people on every possession is the key to being defensive player of the year.

Kramer is incredibly overrated.

[southsider2k5]

Is there a more overrated player from the Big Ten than Kalin Lucas in the last decade?

 

Greg Oden?

[Felix]

Uh oh, Felix is going to be upset. Damian Johnson doesn't even make the Big 10 all defensive team and Kramer won defensive player of the year. I guess flopping all over the place and fouling people on every possession is the key to being defensive player of the year.

More proof that those awards are a joke. Damian is easily one of the best defensive players in the Big 10, and anyone who has ever watched the Gophers play knows the impact he has on the game. He ranked second in the Big Ten in both Blk% and Stl%, and it's laughable that he gets left off the Big 10 All-Defensive team.

 

Add in the fact that Kramer is a punk, and this is ridiculous.

[LittleHurt05]

Greg Oden?

 

I think theres a difference between overrating someone's future NBA potential and their importance/contribution while in college. His ability to play in the pros was overrated, but I dont think as a college player he was overrated. As a freshman, he nearly averaged a double-double, had over 3 blocks/game, and his team was the national runner-up. Does that team have the same results without him?

[Rowand44]

I think theres a difference between overrating someone's future NBA potential and their importance/contribution while in college. His ability to play in the pros was overrated, but I dont think as a college player he was overrated. As a freshman, he nearly averaged a double-double, had over 3 blocks/game, and his team was the national runner-up. Does that team have the same results without him?

I don't think either were overrated. He was a complete game changer in college and there's no way they get to the title game with out him. He also was a legit NBA prospect, if it hasn't been for injuries I think he'd be quite a NBA player at the moment.