Was Trading Brandon Allen a Mistake?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Yes

 

A plus prospect is one that is above a "regular every day player" its a player who you are expecting to be at least above average with the chance to be an all star.

 

Frank Thomas was a plus 1b spect.

 

Prince Fielder was a plus 1b spect.

 

Brandon Allen, not so much.

 

Id be careful about calling people uniformed.

 

And he meant this player

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Chris-Carter.shtml

 

An "average" spect to me is some one who will be a bench player/starter for a bad team. A plus spect is some one who has the potential to be a star.

 

I dont throw around the term "plus" as easily as you.

 

But thanks for the insult, you get to go on the small list of people who have insulted my knowledge. I hope that Allen makes an all star team for your sake, otherwise youll look pretty silly for your "uniformed" statement,

A plus prospect by your definition is a prospect with the ability to be above average at his position. Okay, that's exactly what I'm saying Brandon is. If you don't like it, I really don't care. Your opinion means nothing to me whatsoever.

 

And serious LOLlies for you calling Frank Thomas and Prince Fielder "plus" prospects. Uh, hello??? There's a difference between an above-average or "plus" prospect by your previous definition and an elite hitting prospect.

 

In scouting terms, Adam Russell for example would have a plus fastball (93-97 with some movement) while Neftali Feliz would have a plus-plus or elite fastball (high '90's with movement, basically unhittable). There more levels here than just average or plus. If you went and told someone that Albert Pujols has plus power you'd be wrong, because Konerko has that kind of power. Pujols is on another level above that, and is Thome, etc.

 

BTW I did not insult your knowledge, although I believe the correct term there would have been "intelligence." And don't worry, even if I do I don't expect you to notice.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

PS

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/phillies-inte-1.html

 

UPDATE, 12-14-07 at 10:09am: Ah, now the true story comes out on Otsuka. MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan says the Rangers were going to send him to the White Sox for Chris Carter but the Sox nixed the deal after looking at Otsuka's medical reports. No surprise the Rangers non-tendered him, now. Hat tip to Rangerfans.com.

 

So there. The same guy Kenny dealt for Carlos Quentin he also was going to deal for Akinori Otsuka, who at the time was a 35-year-old setup man with 4 seasons in MLB.

 

I maintain that Allen is a very similar prospect to Carter, and I believe this Tony Pena deal was very close to the deal the Sox almost made for Otsuka. It was a short-sighted, desperate move by Kenny and a steal for the DBacks

Edited August 30, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[DBAHO]

PS

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/phillies-inte-1.html

 

 

 

So there. The same guy Kenny dealt for Carlos Quentin he also was going to deal for Akinori Otsuka, who at the time was a 35-year-old setup man with 4 seasons in MLB.

 

I maintain that Allen is a very similar prospect to Carter, and I believe this Tony Pena deal was very close to the deal the Sox almost made for Otsuka. It was a short-sighted, desperate move by Kenny and a steal for the DBacks

Honestly if Conor Jackson is 100% healthy going into next season, he's their starter at 1B next season not Allen.

 

And I still think Pena can turn it around. At least he's shown dominance at the major league level in the past.

[JPN366]

Edit: BTW Allen has 21 HR between AA/AAA/MLB while Carter has 24 between AA/AAA in 80 more PA. I guess that means he doesn't have power... BTW did anyone watch his first MLB home run? How he took an outside fastball about 2-3" off the plate and pulled it with little effort about 435 feet into RCF in San Francisco? Man, just call this guy Ryan Sweeney, he must have no pop whatsoever.

 

That's the kind of skill and power he has.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Honestly if Conor Jackson is 100% healthy going into next season, he's their starter at 1B next season not Allen.

 

And I still think Pena can turn it around. At least he's shown dominance at the major league level in the past.

I think the DBacks beat writer said differently. I read something that said Allen was their 2010 guy at 1B off MLB.com so I imagine that's true.

 

Connor Jackson has been their best LF when healthy so I think he'll return to that role. Byrnes and Chris Young should split time at CF/4th OF next season. Chad Tracy will be gone too which will open up more time.

 

Edited

Edited August 30, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[ILMOU]

He did a darn fine job with the majority of "The X-Files" TV series though.

 

Best possession receiver of all time.

[Balta1701]

Best possession receiver of all time.

All he does is catch touchdowns.

[Soxbadger]

Kenny,

 

Are you really comparing Otsuka (35) to Pena (27)?

 

I guess that just further shows how there is no way to have an "intelligent" debate on this subject.

 

Although after you stated:

Your opinion means nothing to me whatsoever.

 

I really stopped caring because what is the point of discussing a prospect if you think that you know more than everyone else?

 

BTW I did not insult your knowledge, although I believe the correct term there would have been "intelligence." And don't worry, even if I do I don't expect you to notice.

 

Also in your first post you said "uninformed statement" which is questioning my knowledge, not my intelligence.

 

But hey thanks again for the smartass remark, its interesting that I am able to express my opinion without insulting you, yet as soon as you are questioned you immediately begin to insult others and state that "your opinion doesnt matter."

 

That is the telltale sign of a weak argument.

 

But my guess is that in your next post you will say I dont even know what an argument is.

 

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Kenny,

 

Are you really comparing Otsuka (35) to Pena (27)?

 

I guess that just further shows how there is no way to have an "intelligent" debate on this subject.

 

Although after you stated:

 

I really stopped caring because what is the point of discussing a prospect if you think that you know more than everyone else?

 

 

 

Also in your first post you said "uninformed statement" which is questioning my knowledge, not my intelligence.

 

But hey thanks again for the smartass remark, its interesting that I am able to express my opinion without insulting you, yet as soon as you are questioned you immediately begin to insult others and state that "your opinion doesnt matter."

 

That is the telltale sign of a weak argument.

 

But my guess is that in your next post you will say I dont even know what an argument is.

Otsuka was the old but effective setup man while Pena the younger righty specialist, but there's really no reason to compare them because none of that matters. The point of posting the failed trade was to show that Chris Carter was almost traded for a setup man, and anyone who follows minor league baseball is going to consider Carter much more than your average 1B prospect. I'm getting the impression that some people here think that the return on Allen (Tony Pena) is in some way indicative of Allen's ability and status as a prospect, and because Allen didn't fetch more it means he wasn't worth more. I'm saying that is not true at all, and that Kenny didn't shop him. Chris Carter IMO is a very similar prospect to Allen and he brought us Quentin. But that could have easily NOT happened, and if Otsuka hadn't failed his physical, Otsuka would have been our very weak return on Chris Carter. By posting that failed trade info I'm providing proof that Kenny will sell low on a talented position player in order to pick up a setup man, which to me is bad business.

 

I never questioned your knowledge because you haven't displayed any. I've been explaining EXACTLY WHY I like Brandon Allen throughout this thread and yet all you have done is say he isn't a plus position prospect and point out that he's not Frank Thomas or Prince Fielder. Well no s***, I'm not predicting Allen to be a future HOF'er either. Throughout this thread you have added nothing to back up your opinion that Allen isn't an above-average 1B prospect, and from my perspective, I find it annoying because I've tracked the guy pretty much game by game over the last two seasons, and if you're going to make such a statement then I expect some reasons in order to consider you knowledgeable about anything. Now if you would like to actually present a real argument as to why you do not think Brandon Allen is an above-average (or plus) prospect for his position, which by the way references statistics and scouting reports and not some gut feelings or GM track records, then please go ahead and present that argument.

 

No, your opinion doesn't matter to me at all when you don't back it up by anything. And furthermore I'm not insulting anyone in this thread. I get into arguments all the time with the more stat-friendly users here, and though we hardly ever agree, I still respect their points of view because they supply reasons for their thinking. You OTOH are not arguing anything of substance.

 

If you take exception to me calling you uninformed then that's too bad. If you would like for me to think you ARE informed on the topic, then you need to come up with an argument rather than attempting to school me in semantics like what the word "plus" does and does not mean. Because as I've mentioned before, "plus" is a scouting term that means above average, where average is the base, and plus-plus is elite.

 

[Wanne]

I think the DBacks beat writer said differently. I read something that said Allen was their 2010 guy at 1B off MLB.com so I imagine that's true.

 

Connor Jackson has been their best LF when healthy so I think he'll return to that role. Byrnes and Chris Young should split time at CF/4th OF next season. Chad Tracy will be gone too which will open up more time.

 

Edited

 

Damn that's a ton of mediocre money spent for one position. Makes me feel better about Rios! As for Allen being traded...I honestly think it'll turn out to be a wash. If he turns out great...then super...but who knows. I'll judge it more next year. Guys like Pena and Rios I'm cutting a little slack until they start off a full season with a ST under their belt with this coaching staff and team.

 

[Soxbadger]

I've been explaining EXACTLY WHY I like Brandon Allen throughout this thread and yet all you have done is say he isn't a plus position prospect and point out that he's not Frank Thomas or Prince Fielder. Well no s***, I'm not predicting Allen to be a future HOF'er either. Throughout this thread you have added nothing to back up your opinion that Allen isn't an above-average 1B prospect, and from my perspective, I find it annoying because I've tracked the guy pretty much game by game over the last two seasons, and if you're going to make such a statement then I expect some reasons in order to consider you knowledgeable about anything.

 

No I gave you reasons.

 

Yesterday, 03:54 PM

 

From what I have seen (obviously limited as i dont see many minor league games) he seemed like a solid 1b spect. Unfortunately 1b is one of the easier positions to fill, so generally unless you feel it is a "special" player they are easier to give up.

 

Yesterday, 04:04 PM

 

That type of player hopefully wont be starting at 1b for the Sox in the next 5 years, so Allen was a bench player to them.

 

Hence why he is easier to trade.

 

You are the one arguing that he is something more than a "solid 1b spect". When I say "plus" in terms of 1b, they have to be an excellent hitting spect, some one who is going to have a chance at an all-star team, which means they really have to hit.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

No I gave you reasons.

 

Yesterday, 03:54 PM

 

 

 

Yesterday, 04:04 PM

 

 

 

You are the one arguing that he is something more than a "solid 1b spect". When I say "plus" in terms of 1b, they have to be an excellent hitting spect, some one who is going to have a chance at an all-star team, which means they really have to hit.

Okay, so you're saying that you've seen him and you think he's okay but not great. I was asking more along the lines of what you saw that made you think that, but that's fine.

 

Yes, I'm arguing that he is an above-average 1B prospect with star potential, and at the same time I'm admitting he is not an elite prospect and it is very unlikely that he becomes a truly elite player. I believe Allen has the ability to make an All-Star team in the future, but he's not an annual or perennial All-Star caliber of talent. And keep in mind how many above-average players there are in baseball who may make 1 or 2 All-Star teams in their careers but yet are quite valuable to their teams and make a lot of money. In our organization, as far as prospects and young players go, I'd say we only have four guys that are capable of making several All-Star teams and becoming elite players, and those would be Beckham, Viciedo, Quentin, and Johnny Danks.

 

I have an opposing view to yours in that, first of all, while 1B is a position that is "easier to fill" with a quality player than several others, it still doesn't negate salary commitments, and it still is very difficult and/or expensive to acquire better 1B prospects/young MLB players without drafting them and developing them yourself.

 

Joey Votto for example is going nowhere, neither is Justin Smoak. Maybe Votto makes Yonder Alonso available, but good luck convincing the Reds to trade him to us for players we'd be willing to give up. So when you say it's no big deal to just dump a prospect like Allen off without getting an asset in return that can help your team as much as Allen's potential would suggest is possible, then that means you have to fill that hole through trade or free agency. If you fill it with a trade, and you get a veteran, then not only are you getting a large salary but you're giving up lots of talent in the process. If you sign a big name free agent 1B then you're going to have to pay not only market value, but you'll have to outbid the big-money crazies like the Red Sox which saddles you with tons more risk and is only even an option if ownership allows. Plus you give up draft picks.

 

By trading off Allen for a setup man you're giving up the possibility of 6 years of a productive player at below market value, with three of those years at the league minimum unless a longterm extension is reached. This means that you have to give out money to a veteran to fill that hole, and now those funds cannot be applied to other areas of weakness. And, most likely you're going to be giving up pretty damn good talent in the process. Setup men OTOH are always available in free agency and never cost what above-average position players cost, in fact, they don't even cost as much as above-average DH's cost on the open market. Their ceilings are always lower, and their careers are always more volatile.

 

I haven't said in this thread we shouldn't have traded Allen. I'd trade anyone in this organization for the right player. Trading a prospect like Brandon Allen without getting a star position player or top-end starter that will really help this team out is a waste. Maybe Allen alone doesn't get us a star position player, but I'd rather deal Allen and Jordan Danks for a proven star than deal Allen alone for an overrated righty specialist about to hit arb. And if we had to deal Allen alone, I'd have much rather traded for another young player with the potential to be a star as a starter or position player, which is exactly what Kenny did with Quentin. Kenny f***ed up with this deal. Even if Allen never does s***, Kenny f***ed up by selling low and getting a f***ing righty specialist for Allen instead of shopping him over the offseason when probably half the teams in baseball are going to be looking to cut salary and deal productive players.

Edited August 31, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[danman31]

KHP, you have to back off the lack of intelligence stance here. It's unnecessary to your argument and please don't reply with 4-5 paragraphs explaining your point for the umpteenth time. It's becoming a dead horse (and that's everyone's fault on here, not you).

 

I will say, I highly doubt Allen becomes an above average starting 1B offensively. His highest batting average was .290 (in AA this year) until his aberration in the PCL. It seems highly unlikely he will hit for a good average, which is going to put a lot of pressure on his walk rate and power. He may have 30 HR power, but his walk rate is good, not spectacular so if he is going to hit .260-.270 it's going to be very hard to put up a .850ish OPS. Paul Konerko with less batting average maybe.

[SoxAce]

I will say, I highly doubt Allen becomes an above average starting 1B offensively. His highest batting average was .290 (in AA this year) until his aberration in the PCL. It seems highly unlikely he will hit for a good average, which is going to put a lot of pressure on his walk rate and power. He may have 30 HR power, but his walk rate is good, not spectacular so if he is going to hit .260-.270 it's going to be very hard to put up a .850ish OPS. Paul Konerko with less batting average maybe.

 

I have to agree with this. Hell I didn't even have Allen in my top 5 in the overall 10 spects list for futuresox (and this was when Beckham, Poreda, Richard graduated I believe he was #7) I hated the Allen deal, and I love Allen, but you are overating him waaaaay too much KHP.

[OilCan]

Guess we'll never know.

But, having another left handed power hitter always helps.

[southsider2k5]

I think the DBacks beat writer said differently. I read something that said Allen was their 2010 guy at 1B off MLB.com so I imagine that's true.

 

Connor Jackson has been their best LF when healthy so I think he'll return to that role. Byrnes and Chris Young should split time at CF/4th OF next season. Chad Tracy will be gone too which will open up more time.

 

Edited

 

The scary thing is that someone out there could be taking what Joe Cowley writes and applying it as fact for the sox plans.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Great f***ing post.

 

A bunch of people who never saw the guy play are ripping on him/downplaying his status as a prospect building him up and worshiping him simply because we traded him. If he had gone 3-4 for US last night there would be a million threads about dumping Paulie or finding other ways to fit him in next year. This is ridiculous.

 

Fixed.

 

I also forgot how many professional scouts we have here. Sometimes it amazes me why the White Sox are so stupid and don't just employ people here. The people they currently pay to do this stuff obviously are stealing money from the organization.

Edited August 31, 2009 by ChiSox_Sonix

[JorgeFabregas]

He's heating up.

 

/NBA Jam announcer.

[oldsox]

Guess we'll never know.

But, having another left handed power hitter always helps.

We will know, probably mid season 2010.

[knightni]

He's heating up.

 

/NBA Jam announcer.

"Oh MY, he's on fire!!!"

[ThunderBolt]

Fixed.

 

I also forgot how many professional scouts we have here. Sometimes it amazes me why the White Sox are so stupid and don't just employ people here. The people they currently pay to do this stuff obviously are stealing money from the organization.

You don’t have to be a professional out to see that lefty-hitting 1st basemen who has hit well in the minors should be valued over a relief pitcher.

[witesoxfan]

You don’t have to be a professional out to see that lefty-hitting 1st basemen who has hit well in the minors should be valued over a relief pitcher.

 

And if Brandon Allen puts up .260/.330/.470 and Tony Pena puts up 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and pitches 75 innings, who is more valuable?

[ChiSox_Sonix]

And if Brandon Allen puts up .260/.330/.470 and Tony Pena puts up 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and pitches 75 innings, who is more valuable?

 

Don't even bother. He loves that flawed line of thinking.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

And if Brandon Allen puts up .260/.330/.470 and Tony Pena puts up 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and pitches 75 innings, who is more valuable?

I'll take the .800 OPS athletic 1B performing at the low end of his potential over the spotty setup man in the middle of a career year.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

The black Ryan Sweeney just barely squeaks another one over the wall.