Was Trading Brandon Allen a Mistake?

[Soxbadger]

Now Brandon Allen is a plus positional spect?

 

Eventually hell be the second coming of Frank Thomas.

[Disco72]

If the bullpen was 2007-bad again this year, I wonder if people would still be undervaluing the importance of a bullpen. As bad as the pen has pitched at times this season, it's nothing like it was in 2007.

 

It does seem that the number of Brandon Allen lovers has dramatically increased after Pena gave up that walk off to Ortiz.

[YonderLaroche]

 

AB 145 AVG .324 HR 12 RBI 32 SB 6/6 BB 20 OBP .413 SLG .641 OPS 1.055

 

He's raking for DB's AAA team

[Disco72]

AB 145 AVG .324 HR 12 RBI 32 SB 6/6 BB 20 OBP .413 SLG .641 OPS 1.055

 

He's raking for DB's AAA team

 

...and it has been mentioned time and time again that the league is a very strong hitters league where inflated numbers are the norm. Not that he didn't have a nice stint there, but it's not the same as if he put up those numbers for Charlotte.

[danman31]

He also has had only about 20 ML at bats.

I know. Obviously, it's a tiny sample. I'm just saying if people are going to mention every time he has a good game, I'll mention that he isn't setting the world on fire as it seems some people are implying.

[witesoxfan]

AB 145 AVG .324 HR 12 RBI 32 SB 6/6 BB 20 OBP .413 SLG .641 OPS 1.055

 

He's raking for DB's AAA team

 

So is Mike Morse for the Nationals AAA team.

[danman31]

So is Mike Morse for the Nationals AAA team.

And Jerry Owens for the Mariners' AAA (also a PCL team).

[santo=dorf]

He's also hitting .235. Chill out people.

Now up to .333/.391/.571, but yes, trading one of your top prospects for NL 7th inning men is clearly a great way to build a successful ball club. Just ask Ed Wade.

Edited August 29, 2009 by santo=dorf

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Now up to .333/.391/.571, but yes, trading one of your top prospects for NL 7th inning men is clearly a great way to build a successful ball club. Just ask Ed Wade.

Great f***ing post.

 

A bunch of people who never saw the guy play are ripping on him/downplaying his status as a prospect simply because we traded him. If he had gone 3-4 for US last night there would be a million threads about dumping Paulie or finding other ways to fit him in next year. This is ridiculous.

 

I also have no idea why people don't think Allen can hit for average or good power and then sit here and praise Jordan Danks. Granted Danks is probably going to be viewed by most people around baseball as the better prospect because of his athleticism, speed, and position, but if projecting Allen as a .260 hitter with medicore power is an honest assessment then I'd hate to see what an honest assessment of Jordan's offensive numbers would be.

 

Clearly some people here like Allen and have since well before the trade. No one ever said he was going to be a franchise piece or anything like that, people are just saying it was a s***ty trade.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Now Brandon Allen is a plus positional spect?

 

Eventually hell be the second coming of Frank Thomas.

In the eyes of a lot people he was exactly that before the trade, so why would he have lost stock now? Is being productive in the Majors supposed to hurt his case or something?

 

I don't know how many top-100 lists he made before the season, but he made the Project Prospect list for sure because I was just looking at that the other day. So if you think he was never more than some mediocre prospect, then that's fine, but there are others who pay a lot more attention to prospects around baseball than you do who say he is much more than that.

[JPN366]

I'm assuming I saw Allen play the most of anyone on Soxtalk. I never like seeing prospects traded away, but in this case, it was a bad, bad deal. It is going to backfire on the White Sox. I didn't like seeing Chris Young traded, but I knew his attitude and work ethic wasn't great and that might cost him in the long run. Brandon Allen's upside is unknown, and that may hurt the White Sox in the future. Don't forget about Chris Carter either. If KW can turn Pena around for a better prospect than Allen, then it will balance it all out just like trading Young for Vazquez, then Vazquez for Flowers. But I doubt Pena will ever fetch a better player than Allen.

Edited August 29, 2009 by JPN366

[Balta1701]

I'm assuming I saw Allen play the most of anyone on Soxtalk. I never like seeing prospects traded away, but in this case, it was a bad, bad deal. It is going to backfire on the White Sox. I didn't like seeing Chris Young traded, but I knew his attitude and work ethic wasn't great and that might cost him in the long run. Brandon Allen's upside is unknown, and that may hurt the White Sox in the future. Don't forget about Chris Carter either.

The Chris Carter trade comparison here is very interesting, because at least to me, it's all about what we got back. In that deal, we got a talented (but hurt) guy who filled a clear need for us and who had a high ceiling. We gave up a guy a lot of teams wanted but we stole someone back. I think we gave up a talented guy here who a lot of teams would want. I just have yet to be sold on the return. I know how I valued Allen when we gave him up, and it was higher than I valued Pena based on his numbers coming back. That's what bothers me...but the one thing that could change that is some legit pitching from Pena.

[Soxbadger]

Well if people are thinking Brandon Allen is as good of a prospect as Frank Thomas, I just dont know what to say about that.

 

From what I have seen (obviously limited as i dont see many minor league games) he seemed like a solid 1b spect. Unfortunately 1b is one of the easier positions to fill, so generally unless you feel it is a "special" player they are easier to give up.

 

Frank Thomas was minor league player of the year in his second season in the minors at age 21. he hit 18 home runs, 71 runs batted in, and a league-best 112 walks as a member of the Class-AA Birmingham Barons. (His obp was .487)

 

Im not sure how you can say Allen is comparable.

Edited August 29, 2009 by Soxbadger

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I'm assuming I saw Allen play the most of anyone on Soxtalk. I never like seeing prospects traded away, but in this case, it was a bad, bad deal. It is going to backfire on the White Sox. I didn't like seeing Chris Young traded, but I knew his attitude and work ethic wasn't great and that might cost him in the long run. Brandon Allen's upside is unknown, and that may hurt the White Sox in the future. Don't forget about Chris Carter either.

Allen seems like one of those guys that kind of fall between the cracks and do a lot better than some think they will but everyone else's eyes are on the pitchers with great stuff but no control or the position players with all kinds of tools who still haven't had it "click" for them (as Hawk would say). Everything I've read or heard about Allen from people who have seen him regularly or been around him say glowing things about him, and not just his attitude and work ethic, but his ability to learn the game of baseball. There's a difference between the type of player who can advance through the system because he has outgrown each level and has enough raw ability to get by and the type of player who advances because he learns the game climbing the ladder. Allen seems like the type that as he moves along he is learning how to give fewer and fewer at bats away.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Well if people are thinking Brandon Allen is as good of a prospect as Frank Thomas, I just dont know what to say about that.

 

From what I have seen (obviously limited as i dont see many minor league games) he seemed like a solid 1b spect. Unfortunately 1b is one of the easier positions to fill, so generally unless you feel it is a "special" player they are easier to give up.

 

Frank Thomas was minor league player of the year in his second season in the minors at age 21. he hit 18 home runs, 71 runs batted in, and a league-best 112 walks as a member of the Class-AA Birmingham Barons. (His obp was .487)

 

Im not sure how you can say Allen is comparable.

YOU were the one that brought up Frank. No one else did.

 

Just because 1B is an easier position to fill at the MLB level than say a SS doesn't make Allen less of a prospect. That's absurd. Look at how many Casey Kotchmans and Sean Caseys and Scott Hatteburgs and Aubrey Huffs and so forth end up starting for teams. Brandon Allen can be better than any of those guys. It's to be determined of course, but just because the guy isn't Juston Smoak doesn't mean we should deal him for Tony Pena.

[Soxbadger]

Um you said in the eyes of a lot of people Brandon Allen was already the second coming of Frank Thomas.

 

In the eyes of a lot people he was exactly that before the trade, so why would he have lost stock now? Is being productive in the Majors supposed to hurt his case or something?

 

 

Also

 

In the eyes of a lot people he was exactly that before the trade, so why would he have lost stock now? Is being productive in the Majors supposed to hurt his case or something?

 

That type of player hopefully wont be starting at 1b for the Sox in the next 5 years, so Allen was a bench player to them.

 

Hence why he is easier to trade.

Edited August 29, 2009 by Soxbadger

[whitesoxfan101]

Trading Brandon Allen away wasn't the mistake IMO. Players are traded, even good ones, and especially when they are still just prospects. The mistake was trading him away when all we got in return was a crappy middle reliever who everybody knew was a crappy middle reliever the day the trade was made. Regardless of if Allen makes it big, or if he ends up like most prospects we trade and doesn't do well in the major leagues, this was a stupid trade. If he makes it, it goes from being stupid to being stupid and very harmful.

Edited August 29, 2009 by whitesoxfan101

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Um you said in the eyes of a lot of people Brandon Allen was already the second coming of Frank Thomas.

 

 

 

 

Also

 

 

 

That type of player hopefully wont be starting at 1b for the Sox in the next 5 years, so Allen was a bench player to them.

 

Hence why he is easier to trade.

No, I was responding to your first uninformed statement where you were shocked about him being viewed as a plus prospect for his position.

 

I have no idea what you're trying to say in the second portion. Who aside from Paulie was above Allen in the depth chart? Fields? Are Viciedo and Flowers first basemen now?

[danman31]

No, I was responding to your first uninformed statement where you were shocked about him being viewed as a plus prospect for his position.

He's not a plus positional prospect. If he is supposed to be an average 1B or solid 1B, he's not plus.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

He's not a plus positional prospect. If he is supposed to be an average 1B or solid 1B, he's not plus.

So if he's supposed to be a league average everyday 1B in the Major Leagues then he's basically a run of the mill 1B prospect? Aren't your average run of the mill 1B prospect tweeners and AAAA players?

 

Chris Carter of the Red Sox is your average 1B prospect, nothing special. Brandon Allen is above that.

 

I believe Brandon Allen also has a ceiling above that of an average MLB 1B.

 

 

Here's a comparison:

 

Brandon Allen / Chris Carter

Age 23 / 22

Level AA (62G) AAA (53G) / AA (125G) AAA (3G)

PA 502 / 607

AVG .298 / .333

OBP .373 / .430

SLG .503 / .567

PA/BB 10 /7.4

PA/K 5.9 / 4.93

 

So let's look at these numbers.

 

First off, people talk about Allen's numbers in the PCL being inflated. Okay, but so are Carter's numbers in Midland the Texas League, and Carter played practically his whole season there while Allen spent more than half his season in Birmingham in the Southern League before moving on to face tougher competition in AAA and finally MLB. So the power numbers on the surface favor Carter but park and league play big factors in that and the power gap isn't nearly as large as it appears.

 

The big difference between the two are the BB rate and K rate. Allen K's just less than every 6 PA against higher level competition while Carter just less than every 5 PA. Carter walks a lot more - every 7.4 PA - while Allen walks once every 10 PA. If you take out that 61 PA stretch Allen had in Charlotte where he K'd 13 times and didn't walk even once the average becomes one walk every 8.82 PA which, when you look at his numbers individually, is right where he is normally at. So Carter can be expected to walk more than Allen, but not a whole lot more, and it's a lot closer than people realize. Allen's lower K rate while adjusting to higher competition is FAR more indicative of a good prospect than walk rate IMO because which skill is going to better translate in the Majors? Contact? Or the walk numbers? Nobody is going to pitch around either of these guys in the Majors until they've proven themselves, so the contact is going to be more important as they break into the Majors. Of course if you also factor out that short stint in Charlotte where Allen was adjusting, his K rate lowers even further to one K per every 6.1 PA.

 

The bottom line is that Carter and Allen are very similar prospects with Allen the better contact guy and Carter with more walks. Both have lots of power and are young, with Allen being one year older and about one year in development ahead exactly. ANYONE who would consider Chris Carter an average 1B prospect is clueless. Calling Allen the same is just as much so.

 

Edit: BTW Allen has 21 HR between AA/AAA/MLB while Carter has 24 between AA/AAA in 80 more PA. I guess that means he doesn't have power... BTW did anyone watch his first MLB home run? How he took an outside fastball about 2-3" off the plate and pulled it with little effort about 435 feet into RCF in San Francisco? Man, just call this guy Ryan Sweeney, he must have no pop whatsoever.

Edited August 30, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[danman31]

So if he's supposed to be a league average everyday 1B in the Major Leagues then he's basically a run of the mill 1B prospect? Aren't your average run of the mill 1B prospect tweeners and AAAA players?

 

Chris Carter of the Red Sox is your average 1B prospect, nothing special. Brandon Allen is above that.

I guess it's definition of prospect. If a guy projects as a tweener, he isn't much of a prospect is he? Also, I think you are talking about Chris Carter of the A's, not the Red Sox.

[Balta1701]

I guess it's definition of prospect. If a guy projects as a tweener, he isn't much of a prospect is he? Also, I think you are talking about Chris Carter of the A's, not the Red Sox.

He did a darn fine job with the majority of "The X-Files" TV series though.

[Soxbadger]

So if he's supposed to be a league average everyday 1B in the Major Leagues then he's basically a run of the mill 1B prospect?

 

Yes

 

A plus prospect is one that is above a "regular every day player" its a player who you are expecting to be at least above average with the chance to be an all star.

 

Frank Thomas was a plus 1b spect.

 

Prince Fielder was a plus 1b spect.

 

Brandon Allen, not so much.

 

Id be careful about calling people uniformed.

 

And he meant this player

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Chris-Carter.shtml

 

An "average" spect to me is some one who will be a bench player/starter for a bad team. A plus spect is some one who has the potential to be a star.

 

I dont throw around the term "plus" as easily as you.

 

But thanks for the insult, you get to go on the small list of people who have insulted my knowledge. I hope that Allen makes an all star team for your sake, otherwise youll look pretty silly for your "uniformed" statement,

 

 

[Quin]

For what it's worth, I never though Brandon Allen had much of a future with the Sox. I though he was a pretty trading piece.

 

It's just we got a bad return on him.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I guess it's definition of prospect. If a guy projects as a tweener, he isn't much of a prospect is he? Also, I think you are talking about Chris Carter of the A's, not the Red Sox.

I was talking about the Red Sox Chris Carter as the run-of-the-mill guy and the A's (Vernon) Chris Carter as the much better prospect. Maybe I didn't do a very good job making note of that.

 

This "projects" thing is probably where I'm losing you. Obviously different people project players to do different things. Allen wasn't seen by *everyone* to be some tweener/AAAA guy. Some scouts love him, others for some reason are pessimistic. Saying Brandon Allen "projects" as a tweener IMO is just like saying Poreda "projects" as an ace. You can find scouts reportedly saying these things, but so what? You can also find others saying the exact opposite. In either case you have certain people making glaring omissions in their evaluations - in Brandon's case it his development over the last two seasons and his ability to make adjustments at each level and in Poreda's case it is long odds of him developing enough secondary stuff.

 

As far as other tweeners and AAAA players would go, their status as prospects and their value all depends on who is looking at them. Jeff Clement's stock has fallen quite a bit, but the Pirates still wanted him even knowing he wasn't going to stick at catcher. Kendry Morales' stock took a hit over the years as the Angels kept him in Triple A in the PCL and I remember reading AAAA comps about him too prior to this season. Well obviously he still had value because he's a stud.

 

I think people sometimes forget entirely how far a MiLB player's stock can rise or fall over the course of just ONE MiLB season and how volatile "projections" are and how little some of them are based off of. Allen was under the radar entirely until last year and his numbers prior to that aren't exactly eye-popping so it makes sense others would be slow to come around anyway. But I don't know what there is not to like about his game. He makes enough contact to hit in the Bigs, he walks enough to hit in the Bigs, he has far more than enough power to hit in the Bigs, and for a 1B he's very athletic and deceptively fast. The attitude, work ethic, ability to learn and adjust, coachability, all that stuff checks out very well for him. And if you've seen him hit, he's not exactly Josh Fields with the bat.