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The Final Push


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The Final Push

By Jason Gage

July 24, 2003

SoxNet.net

 

Baseball is roughly a week away from the trade-deadline, which leaves the teams in contention looking to add while the teams that are flopping look to dump. In the middle there are those teams that could add or sell. Right now that’s where White Sox General Manger Ken Williams stands.

 

My answer to Ken Williams is to not only buy, but to go all out. Coming into Thursday, the White Sox are one game over .500 and five games back. They are currently on a six-game winning streak and are playing in a division that is still up for grabs. With 13 games left against the division leading Royals, the current team could definitely make a push without a trade. But would this team be capable of winning the series if the push does in fact happen? Any team with three ace pitchers (Loiaza, Buehrle, and Colon) can definitely compete, but I ask this, why just compete, lets become the front-runners.

 

Tuesday night the Chicago Cubs took advantage of the Pirates fire-sale by acquiring Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton for Jose Hernandez, Matt Bruback and a player to be named later. Bruback is a fringe prospect while Hernandez is a nobody. Now it should be the Sox turn to take advantage of the Pirates. After all, it would only be fair since the Pirates burned the Sox in the Todd Ritchie deal.

 

So, with all this in mind, I ask Mr. Williams to trade for Brian Giles and Jason Kendall. Its been no secret that the White Sox have coveted Giles since last off-season, when they tried to land him, along with Todd Ritchie. However, Giles wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause, and the Sox simply got Ritchie. Peter Gammons reported last night that the Pirates would be more then willing to accept mid-level talent if Jason Kendall was packaged with Brian Giles.

 

The flaw is Kendall is owed $42 million over the next four seasons, which equates to $10.5 million a year. In return for the two players the Sox would offer Carlos Lee, Jon Rauch and a mid-level prospect. If the Pirates weren’t interested in Carlos Lee, you could guarantee that Aaron Rowand or Willie Harris would be part of the package as well as an additional mid-level prospect (ie, Matt Ginter, Jon Adkins, Gary Majewski).

 

For once the key to this steal, oh wait, I mean deal, isn’t on the Pirates accepting the trade but on White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf approving the deal, which would add $70.8 million in contracts. While there is no way Reinsdorf would accept a deal of that magnitude, it is possible that he’d be willing if the Sox get the Pirates to pay half of Kendall’s salary. The Pirates would still be saving $50 million in contracts ($46 million if they take Carlos Lee).

 

Why the Sox do it in the short-run? The Sox offense has been improving as of late, but there are still questions as to whether Everett can play center field, and while Giles isn’t a typical centerfielder, he gets it done. Giles is also a much better offensive player then Carlos Lee (the bat he replaces). Giles is hitting .304 with a .438 on base percentage. He also has 10 homers and 50 RBIs. Giles hit 35 homeruns or more in each of his past for seasons. This season Giles has only struck out 34 times while walking 61 times. Giles’ average is .039 points higher then Carlos Lee while his OBP is .125 points higher. Lee has seven additional homers and 14 RBIs, but Giles has 30 fewer strikeouts.

 

Giles would fit into the five hole while Jason Kendall would take over the number two slot in the lineup. Miguel Olivo is a very talented young catcher, but some time in Charlotte could do wonders for him. Kendall is hitting .310 with a .388 OBP (.119 higher then Olivo) and has struck out just 30 times. Despite his horrible ankle injury, Kendall still has good speed and can handle the bat. With him in the two-hole, the White Sox could effectively run some hit-and-runs and manufacture quite a few more runs.

 

The Sox would also have an incredibly balanced lineup with five right-handed hitters, one left-handed hitter and three switch hitters.

 

Why the Sox do it in the long-run? Two-thirds of the Sox outfield could leave via free agency this offseason (Lee can be kept if the Sox want him here, while Everett is a free agent). Giles would be a long-term solution and could potentially replace Ordonez if he leaves after 2004. The Sox would then move Jason Kendall to LF while Olivo comes back up and becomes the starting catcher. This gives the Sox a very complete lineup for next year, with the only holes at shortstop and second base (will Valentin and Alomar stay?).

 

What if Reinsdorf doesn’t add the salary? If Reinsdorf isn’t willing to add the salary, Ken Williams could still make the deal, but he just has to get a little more creative. The Giants have showed interest in Bartolo Colon for a while and they have the young pitching to make a deal with the Giants worthwhile. A package of Jesse Foppert, Kurt Ainsworth and Jerome Williams or another prospect should be do-able. The Sox would dump payroll while they would be able to still field a five-man rotation, and a really talented one at that. While Ainsworth is injured, Williams and Foppert would become the Sox 4 & 5 with Porzio or Wright moving to the pen.

 

So Kenny, if your reading this, lets try to win it all this year. And Jerry, winning it all means the Sox will get to sell playoff tickets, and if things go right, you should see 30,000 a game the next few seasons.

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Great article Jason! I would love to see the Giles/Kendall trade and the Colon trade to happen, but I only realisticly see the Colon trade happen, if anything. I just think that Giles would not want to play for us, even though I think he'd be crazy not to. I mean, if he wants to pass up the opportunity to play in the World Series(which he could if we got him and Kendall) and keep playing for that loser team the Pirates then he can stay there as far as I'm concerned.

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Jason Kendall would be a very good bat to add to the lineup. He and Giles would almost be perfect. Both are very good contact hitters, and that is something this lineup needs.

 

Kendall has some pop in his bat, but he doesn't hit many homers. And you know what.....I think that's exactly what we need.

 

Also, Jas, I believe the Orioles are willing to take on atleast part of Konerko's contract, correct? Trade Konerko for Lightenberg....saves $4-8 mill as well. Trading Colon to San Fran for Williams, Foppert, and that Cain kid(which I would love to do) would put them over the top, give us a very talented rotation, and it would free up $12-16 mill.

 

I think that could most definately make us the favorite in the AL.

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Thats correct, they would actually be willing to take all of Konerko's contract if the Sox gave them a good prospec (They could give them the 3rd guy in the Colon deal).

Good prospect....there are a lot of good prospects, but what do they mean? Would Diaz fit in that category?

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Good prospect....there are a lot of good prospects, but what do they mean?  Would Diaz fit in that category?

ya Diaz would.

 

I mean deal Konerko and a good prospect (I'm assuming they get Williams and Foppert and a 3rd guy from the Giants). Give them the 3rd guy.

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ya Diaz would. 

 

I mean deal Konerko and a good prospect (I'm assuming they get Williams and Foppert and a 3rd guy from the Giants).  Give them the 3rd guy.

Yeah, I understood that, but if we got one of those kids that can throw like 100, I don't think I'd want to give him up(Cain and Threet or something like that?). From what I've understood from Rex, Pacheco and Diaz are quite similar pitchers, and in my mind, one of them becomes available, and neither of them can throw 100 either.

 

We could give them that 3rd guy though too. That wouldn't be a problem.

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ya Diaz would. 

 

I mean deal Konerko and a good prospect (I'm assuming they get Williams and Foppert and a 3rd guy from the Giants).  Give them the 3rd guy.

Yeah, I understood that, but if we got one of those kids that can throw like 100, I don't think I'd want to give him up(Cain and Threet or something like that?). From what I've understood from Rex, Pacheco and Diaz are quite similar pitchers, and in my mind, one of them becomes available, and neither of them can throw 100 either.

 

We could give them that 3rd guy though too. That wouldn't be a problem.

Oh, ok gotcha. Ya they could give them Diaz, I think they'd listen to that.

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Jason:

 

A good read, and a nice idea. But it's a pipe dream - unless your George Steinbrenner.

 

First, the deal with Giles is that to get him, you need to take on all of Kendall's salary - no exceptions. The Chairman would never do it.

 

Second, the White Sox should not deal Colon if they are serious about playing deep into October. He has not been the ace we thought we were getting at 7-9 4.25, but his last start was big. It showed how dominant he can be - retiring 17 straight at one point. He has the stuff we need for a playoff series. Plus this team has now won seven straight and in that run the starting pitching has been the strength. It has been keeping the Sox in ball games. As the saying goes - if it ain't broke don't fix it.

 

This trade would shore up an outfield weakness but to accomplish it you bring uncertainy with adding new pitchers to that rotation mix - which I think would subtract from the overall effectiveness of the pitching staff in the short term. The Giants pitchers you mentioned are top notch talent, no doubt. In the long haul, they would be great to have on the roster. But only if we're selling this year and not going to contend.

 

Put it this way - in the deciding game a playoff series, say the ALDS against, say, the Yankees - who would you rather have on the bump? One of three pitchers who have started only 41 games combined and are a combined 17-15 w/4.07 ERA or Colon - a name in the game - who has started 198 games, is a career 92-58 w/3.90 ERA and has pitched well in the playoffs? I'll take the experience every time.

 

I would love to have Giles and Kendall - but not at the expense of creating a new hole to fill for this season. Only Steinbrenner could afford to do both - keep Colon and get Giles while taking on Kendall's salary.

 

I have always liked your Ponson thoughts, he would be a great addition to this year's staff and I think we could sign him to a three year deal, to fill the gap left when Colon becomes a free agent. Obtaining Ponson with some bullpen help - and we are over the top and could be the favorites in the post season. What would it take to get him? Lee?

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On the subject of the Colon/SFO deal, I just read where columnist Skip Bayless recommended the Giants trade Foppert for Colon.

Jim- Thanks I just read the column this paragraph is exactly why we shouldn't deal Colon....

 

"Though Colon struggled during a recent four-game losing streak, losing some mph, he was hitting 97 in beating Cleveland the other night. He's a horse. He strikes fear. With Jason Schmidt, Kirk Rueter and Colon, Barry's Team would have a serious shot."

 

Now replace some of the names......

 

"Though Colon struggled during a recent four-game losing streak, losing some mph, he was hitting 97 in beating Cleveland the other night. He's a horse. He strikes fear. With Mark Buehrle, Esteban Loaiza and Colon, the Sox Team would have a serious shot."

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At this particular time, I would not deal Colon. His last start was dominant, but the context in which he did it is very interesting to me. I heard that before his last start, Manuel encouraged him to go back to being more of a power pitcher and trust his heat, and he evidently concurred. If that change was the reason for his strong outing -- then we could be seeing a whole new Bartolo for the rest of the season. Before dealing him for anyone, I would like to hold on to him just long enough to see if he has indeed turned a corner.

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Clark

 

I couldn't agree more with your analysis on giving up Colon. That being said I do think the rotation without Colon and with those others would be just as sucessful (At least in the regular season) cause it would also give the Sox a good 5th starter, something I think is drastically needed.

 

Now if I were the GM, and this is probably all a pipe dream, UNLESS, the Sox don't move Lee to the Pirates but instead get the Orioles to take on Konerko and the Sox give them someone like Felix Diaz and Tim Hummel. Orioles takes on a lot of salary and the Sox get Ponson in return.

 

Then the Sox move Colon's salary to the Giants for at least Williams and Foppert and then I'd ask for a 3rd guy.

 

The Sox in those two deals cut around 14 mill. Then they add roughly that by taking on Giles and Kendall meaning the payroll stays at basically the same spot this year.

 

Next year the Sox would have to give Ponson a few mill raise, Loaiza and Buerhle the same as well as Magglio and I think Lee would get around the same amount as well.

 

The Sox payroll jumps up maybe 8 million and they have Giles, Kendal and Ponson.

 

And now the rotation is wicked and you have a great long guy (Foppert or Williams) as well as Wright working to become a closer and the Sox still have Koch (Who could be dealt in the offseason for financial purposes), Gordon (Resign him), Marte and if you don't keep White you sign someone like him.

 

Career wise Ponson is a bit of a step down, but he's been proving this year he can beat the best and his stuff is great.

 

Of course the Sox could just add Ponson and I think that alone would make them really good too.

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If we were to trade Colon to SF, I would be extremely happy if we got Williams, Foppert, and Matt Cain. Williams is a total stud(and still 21 years old). Foppert has had some problems this year, but has show flashes of greatness, and in my opinion he'll be a total stud in a year or 2. Cain was in A ball this year, so he'd most likely be with Honel and Wing as they all move through the minors. This would be an incredible 3-some to have, plus they would all probably be friends when they got to the big leagues so that would be awesome to have in the clubhouse. Even though Cain got hurt this year, the Giants think he could possibly still return to pitch by the end of the year, so that's good news. And, before he got hurt he could throw high 90's that reaches 100, so if he returns to that form, in my opinion, he will be a very solid Major League pitcher.

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