Octavio Dotel

[southsider2k5]

And Dotel won't be offered arbitration.

 

Not unless they have something worked out ahead of time where he declines it, or if someone is going to sign him.

[oldsox]

Do we have any idea how much we will need to pay him in arb? I thought it was a small enough amount where he wouldn't definitely accept it.

80% of current salary.

[joeynach]

I'd imagine Jhonny Nunez is definitely going to be on our roster most likely come 2010.

 

But then again, guys like Adam Russell haven't done the job in the past either.

 

It all depends how KW uses the money.

 

We went through 2007 with essentially unproben no name cheap arms in the bullpen. It was disaster, the scrubs couldnt throw strikes and couldn't be relied on for anything. Therefore in 2008 KW goes out and gets go to guys in the pen, Dotel and Linebrink, that yes cost some $$. Do you really think KW is now in 2010 going to go back to let the bullpen be "cheap no names", I dont think so. I think 2007 was so embarassing, as it should be, there is no way Kenny builds any bullpen without proven "go to" guys.

[Balta1701]

We went through 2007 with essentially unproben no name cheap arms in the bullpen. It was disaster, the scrubs couldnt throw strikes and couldn't be relied on for anything. Therefore in 2008 KW goes out and gets go to guys in the pen, Dotel and Linebrink, that yes cost some $$. Do you really think KW is now in 2010 going to go back to let the bullpen be "cheap no names", I dont think so. I think 2007 was so embarassing, as it should be, there is no way Kenny builds any bullpen without proven "go to" guys.

The fact that a few hard throwing, fairly no-name guys didn't work out in 2007 doesn't mean that a different batch of no-name guys, maybe hard throwing maybe not, won't work out 3 years later. It could well depend more on who the actual guys are and whether or not they fit the mold of what we try to do with pitchers that we bring in.

[WCSox]

The fact that a few hard throwing, fairly no-name guys didn't work out in 2007 doesn't mean that a different batch of no-name guys, maybe hard throwing maybe not, won't work out 3 years later. It could well depend more on who the actual guys are and whether or not they fit the mold of what we try to do with pitchers that we bring in.

 

Is that a gamble that you want to make when you've just invested in Jake Peavy and have what is arguably the best rotation in the majors? If I'm Kenny, I look to protect my investment and make an effort to field a solid bullpen. That doesn't necessarily exclude guys in our farm system, but you certainly don't want as many unknowns in the bullpen next year as Kenny had in 2007.

 

[Balta1701]

Is that a gamble that you want to make when you've just invested in Jake Peavy and have what is arguably the best rotation in the majors? If I'm Kenny, I look to protect my investment and make an effort to field a solid bullpen. That doesn't necessarily exclude guys in our farm system, but you certainly don't want as many unknowns in the bullpen next year as Kenny had in 2007.

If you're starting with Jenks and Thornton, that's not a bad set of building blocks. We can assume Linebrink and Carrasco are going to be there as well. That leaves the 2nd lefty and at least 1 RHP, if not 2 spots.

[southsider2k5]

Is that a gamble that you want to make when you've just invested in Jake Peavy and have what is arguably the best rotation in the majors? If I'm Kenny, I look to protect my investment and make an effort to field a solid bullpen. That doesn't necessarily exclude guys in our farm system, but you certainly don't want as many unknowns in the bullpen next year as Kenny had in 2007.

 

The thing is, when you have 4 guys at least that are really good starting pitchers, that is going to eat into the innings that the pen will be needed for, which makes it less important to spend tons of money on.

[WCSox]

If you're starting with Jenks and Thornton, that's not a bad set of building blocks. We can assume Linebrink and Carrasco are going to be there as well. That leaves the 2nd lefty and at least 1 RHP, if not 2 spots.

 

Assuming that Kenny's financially able to keep Jenks, of course. I like Carrasco for long relief, but don't have much faith in Linebrink (or Pena, for that matter). I'd rather fill the 7th inning role with Hudson or somebody who has pitched effectively in the majors previously than an unknown from our farm system. I might be tempted to gamble a bit on the second lefty.

 

[WCSox]

The thing is, when you have 4 guys at least that are really good starting pitchers, that is going to eat into the innings that the pen will be needed for, which makes it less important to spend tons of money on.

 

Exactly. And this is what allows Hudson to be that cheap in-house solution for the bullpen for 2010.

 

[Balta1701]

Assuming that Kenny's financially able to keep Jenks, of course. I like Carrasco for long relief, but don't have much faith in Linebrink (or Pena, for that matter). I'd rather fill the 7th inning role with Hudson or somebody who has pitched effectively in the majors previously than an unknown from our farm system. I might be tempted to gamble a bit on the second lefty.

Duh, I totally spaced Pena.

 

Jenks

Thor

Linebrink

Carrasco

Pena

 

That's a fairly good start. We need clearly 1 more LHP there and it'd be an obvious failure to go in to the season with Williams in that role. I don't think we have anyone obvious in our minor leagues who fills that slot either. That might be a place to legitimately spend a couple million this offseason. Who's available? Casey Fossum, Joe Beimel, Scott Eyre (not coming here), John Grabow, Trever Miller, Darren Oliver, Billy Wagner are some LHP who have put up decent numbers and are FA after this season.

 

Linebrink, we may not have confidence in him, but he's going to be there. Pena, we might not have confidence in him but he's going to be there, and if he develops then suddenly our pen looks really good. If we carry 12 pitchers (With our 5 starters, there's no guarantee we'll do that), then there's room for either Hudson or Nunez to pitch their way in there. But again, with our starters, you could probably get by with an 11 man pen if either Linebrink or Pena can step up.

[southsider2k5]

Exactly. And this is what allows Hudson to be that cheap in-house solution for the bullpen for 2010.

 

Personally I go with Torres in that long man/swing man spot, and leave Hudson in AAA to strech out and be ready for a call up.

 

Garcia is my 5th starter to begin the season.

[Steve9347]

Dotel is nasty... you have to try to keep him.

[elrockinMT]

The bullpen might all be up for discussion this off season. Personally the only one I am happy with is Thornton. Keep Matt and Ozzie likes Carrasco, but after that it's anyone's guess

[BigSqwert]

As frustrating as the bullpen has been I'm not too worried about 2010 as of right now. I guarantee at least 1 of the guys we currently have will turn it around next year. That's how relievers are in the big leagues. Mostly unpredictable. My guess is Pena will have a nice bounce back year.

[WCSox]

Linebrink, we may not have confidence in him, but he's going to be there. Pena, we might not have confidence in him but he's going to be there, and if he develops then suddenly our pen looks really good. If we carry 12 pitchers (With our 5 starters, there's no guarantee we'll do that), then there's room for either Hudson or Nunez to pitch their way in there. But again, with our starters, you could probably get by with an 11 man pen if either Linebrink or Pena can step up.

 

I agree that there's a lot of potential. I'm not sold on Pena being consistently good, but Linebrink has done it before and can do it again as long as he's healthy. I'm not counting on either of them, but this bullpen certainly has the raw talent to swing from below-average to pretty good.

Edited September 8, 2009 by WCSox

[TheChrisSamsa]

I like Pena, Linebrink, and Dotel when they're not used in major roles. They all have potential to be incredibly useful if used in more of a rotation, or if Ozzie would just play the hot-hand, instead of continually running a pitcher out there to fail. I feel like we saw a lot of Pena when he just wasn't pitching well. Same with Linebrink and Dotel, though less recently. I know Ozzie likes to put guys back out there after they have a rough outing, but I'd rather see him be a little more selective with how the righty middle relief arms are used. If he did that, I think we'd have a different view on our current bullpen. All of the guys had bad stretches and the board stopped having any confidence in them.

[iamshack]

We went through 2007 with essentially unproben no name cheap arms in the bullpen. It was disaster, the scrubs couldnt throw strikes and couldn't be relied on for anything. Therefore in 2008 KW goes out and gets go to guys in the pen, Dotel and Linebrink, that yes cost some $$. Do you really think KW is now in 2010 going to go back to let the bullpen be "cheap no names", I dont think so. I think 2007 was so embarassing, as it should be, there is no way Kenny builds any bullpen without proven "go to" guys.

 

The funny thing is that look where those cheap power arms that were a "disaster" for us in 2007 are now...

 

1) Masset - 5-1, 2.67, 1.03 WHIP

2) Aardsma - 34 Saves, 2.15, 1.20 WHIP

3) MacDougal - 15 Saves, 3.43 ERA, 1.53 WHIP (ok, still struggling a bit)

 

Looks like maybe we had the right idea, just not the right coaching or execution....

[greg775]

Dotel is nasty... you have to try to keep him.

 

He's nasty once in a while. He's certainly not even close to reliable.

[ILMOU]

The Dotel situation is a really tough call, considering his pedigree (likeliness to win arb), the economy/KW's budget, and the fact that his stats this year probably exceed his actual performance.

 

Glad I don't have to make it.

[Princess Dye]

Bullpen arms are so fickle year to year. To win you have to get lucky with a few unproven guys (politte, cotts etc).

 

So, if we're reupping Jenks, then I cut Dotel loose and put that $4M towards adding a position player FA.

 

Next year we need to see Nunez and/or Torres in the pen to support Thornton, Jenks, Linebrink, Peña, Carrasco. If they are feeling like bringing Garcia back.....it should be interesting to see what they do with Hudson and some other top young arms.

 

 

 

 

Hey perhaps I'd spend 4M on a solid FA reliever but Dotel is too all-or-nothing for my tastes.

Edited September 9, 2009 by Princess Dye

[WCSox]

So, if we're reupping Jenks, then I cut Dotel loose and put that $4M towards adding a position player FA.

 

That's pretty much the crux of it. If money grew on trees (like it apparently does in the Bronx), re-upping Dotel might not be a bad move. But the reality is that we already have $67 million committed to next year (not including options and arbitration) and even re-signing Jenks to a one-year deal might be stretching the budget. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Kenny needs to deal Jenks this winter to round out the rest of the 25-man roster.

 

[Princess Dye]

That's pretty much the crux of it. If money grew on trees (like it apparently does in the Bronx), re-upping Dotel might not be a bad move. But the reality is that we already have $67 million committed to next year (not including options and arbitration) and even re-signing Jenks to a one-year deal might be stretching the budget. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Kenny needs to deal Jenks this winter to round out the rest of the 25-man roster.

 

If I read you right, are you saying that you see upcoming FA signings being very minimal?

Edited September 9, 2009 by Princess Dye

[Balta1701]

If I read you right, are you saying that you see upcoming FA signings being very minimal?

Frankly, they ought to be. The only positions we're really in need are the 3rd righty out of the bullpen and a corner OF/DH. The only corner OF out there worth a ton of money is Holliday, but personally, I have no interest in being the team bringing him back to the AL to watch him repeat his performance from Oakland this year. The only way some major FA signing would make sense is if there's a big trade of one of our current starters to clear a position for someone. You're not benching Beckham, Rios, Getz, Quentin, Alexei, AJ/Flowers, or Konerko next year.

[Princess Dye]

Frankly, they ought to be. The only positions we're really in need are the 3rd righty out of the bullpen and a corner OF/DH. The only corner OF out there worth a ton of money is Holliday, but personally, I have no interest in being the team bringing him back to the AL to watch him repeat his performance from Oakland this year. The only way some major FA signing would make sense is if there's a big trade of one of our current starters to clear a position for someone. You're not benching Beckham, Rios, Getz, Quentin, Alexei, AJ/Flowers, or Konerko next year.

 

This is factoring Dye and Pods both being brought back? Something tells me KW will find a way to do something to get more left-handed. That to me is a need, albeit not positional.

 

Perhaps he turns Dye into Abreu. Here's hopin' at least

Edited September 9, 2009 by Princess Dye

[Balta1701]

This is factoring Dye and Pods both being brought back? Something tells me KW will find a way to do something to get more left-handed. That to me is a need, albeit not positional.

 

Perhaps he turns Dye into Abreu

Frankly, after the last 2 months of p*** poor production at the plate from JD, I'll be surprised if he's brought back. I could see Podsednik being an option, but I'm not sure. That's going to be interesting to watch for a number of reasons...I'm wondering, for example, if he might have played himself in to a type B free agent this year, or whether or not we'd consider offering him arbitration again. Arb experts, is there a minimum arbitration salary guarantee for someone like Podsednik?

 

I think we'll see a LH DH appear next year. Either Thome coming back or someone like Abreu, not sure, but I bet we grab one.