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Baseball America's Season Hot Sheet


Ozzie Ball

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It's over.

 

After 19 regular season Prospect Hot Sheets, it's time to wrap up another season. We picked 20 prospects who we felt stood out from the crowd this season. It was extremely hard to narrow this list down to 20—in fact, we could have written 40 prospects up just as easily. As we did during the season, this list is a combination of prospect status and performance.

No. 13 DAN HUDSON, RHP, WHITE SOX

Dan Hudson

Team: low Class A Kannapolis (South Atlantic) / high Class A Winston-Salem (Carolina) / Double-A Birmingham (Southern) / Triple-A Charlotte (International)

Age: 22

Why He's Here: 14-5, 2.32, 147 1/3 IP, 105 H, 5 HR, 34 BB, 166 SO

The Scoop: A fifth-round pick in '08 out of Old Dominion, Hudson made an impressive debut last year in the Rookie-level Pioneer League, going 5-4, 3.36 with 90 strikeouts over 70 innings. Still, nobody expected him to blaze his way through four minor league levels this season, finishing the year in Chicago's bullpen.

 

Hudson met nearly every player in the White Sox organization this year. He started the season with Kannapolis, where he pitched 22 innings before being promoted to Winston-Salem, where he pitched 45 innings. Hudson spent the most time in Birmingham, getting nine starts and 56 innings. He pitched 24 more innings with Charlotte before being promoted to the big leagues. So far, Hudson has pitched in 16 different cities this season. But despite his gaudy strikeout total, Hudson's total is not the most by a White Sox pitcher in recent memory. During his second tour of duty with Chicago, Gio Gonzalez fanned 185 batters in '07.

No. 20 TYLER FLOWERS, C, WHITE SOX

Tyler Flowers

Team: Double-A Birmingham (Southern) / Triple-A Charlotte (International)

Age: 23

Why He's Here: .297/.423/.516 (105-for-353), 15 HR, 28 2B, 2 3B, 56 RBIs, 67 R, 67 BB, 108 SO, 3-for-3 SB

The Scoop: As the centerpiece of the trade that sent Javier Vazquez to Atlanta last December, Flowers has done nothing but impress since joining the Good Guys. Flowers started the year with Birmingham and hit .302/.445/.548 over 248 at-bats before a promotion to Charlotte. With the Knights, Flowers hit .286/.364/.438 over 105 at-bats and the performance earned him a callup to the big leagues when rosters expanded.

 

Flowers' production shouldn't come as a surprise, as he's put up a good line each year as a pro. His on-base percentage was .373 and .378 his first two seasons and then jumped to .427 last year and .423 this year, and his slugging percentage has steadily improved each year as a pro, from .465 in 2006 with Rookie-level Danville to .516 this year.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...009/268861.html

 

I'm surprised that Flowers made it, not because he doesn't deserve it, but because he seems to be perennially overlooked by prospect writers.

 

Chris Carter at no. 3 for those who didn't want to read it. Jason Heyward also named BA's POY.

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QUOTE (scenario @ Sep 11, 2009 -> 11:28 AM)
I like how Flowers was outhitting Carlos Santana at the AA-level...

 

And was selected as the best defensive catcher in the Southern League...

 

Yet was the 5th catcher picked at #20, while Santana was the 2nd catcher picked at #6.

Well, they are the same age too. Does Santana have a steroid suspension on his record?

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QUOTE (scenario @ Sep 11, 2009 -> 01:28 PM)
I like how Flowers was outhitting Carlos Santana at the AA-level...

 

And was selected as the best defensive catcher in the Southern League...

 

Yet was the 5th catcher picked at #20, while Santana was the 2nd catcher picked at #6.

 

More doubles, more HRs, more RBI, more runs, more walks and less Ks for Santana. I haven't seen either of them play (outside of a few innings of Flowers since his call-up), but the numbers suggest Santana is the better player.

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QUOTE (BaseballNick @ Sep 11, 2009 -> 02:53 PM)
More doubles, more HRs, more RBI, more runs, more walks and less Ks for Santana. I haven't seen either of them play (outside of a few innings of Flowers since his call-up), but the numbers suggest Santana is the better player.

 

Sure... if you want to ignore that Flowers got promoted from AA to AAA after 248 at-bats; Santana didn't play nearly as well in the first half as Flowers and therefore played his entire year (438 at-bats) in AA; and that Santana had 75 more total at-bats on the season than Flowers.

 

Compare their AA averages:

- Flowers... .302/.445/.548/.993

- Santana.... .290/.413/.530/.943

 

Now try equalizing the at-bats. You get a better picture. Flowers in the same number of AA at-bats projected to have 31 doubles, 23 homeruns, and 100 walks. The point is not that Flowers numbers at the same level are substantially better... but they are better.

 

Also consider that Santana's numbers weren't nearly as good in the first half of the year. In roughly the same number of at-bats as Flowers had when he got promoted, Santana's numbers were: .266/.394/.494/.888.

 

Clearly advantage Flowers. Especially since Flowers had an outstanding year defensively.

 

So what's the justification for Santana being 6th and Flowers 20th? :huh

 

That's all I'm asking.

 

Was Flowers penalized for doing well enough to get promoted to AAA while Santana only came around later in the year and fattened up his stats on AA pitching?

Edited by scenario
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QUOTE (danman31 @ Sep 11, 2009 -> 09:33 PM)
Flowers is getting penalized for struggling in AAA, which seems fair enough to me.

 

Only his first month though.

 

In his second month, he looked very good.

 

And a system that wouldn't take into account some period of adjustment after a guy gets promoted doesn't make much sense to me.

 

No sense in penalizing a guy who played well enough to get promoted, and have him trail a guy who stayed behind and didn't play as well until later in the year.

Edited by scenario
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QUOTE (scenario @ Sep 11, 2009 -> 09:42 PM)
And a system that wouldn't take into account some period of adjustment after a guy gets promoted doesn't make much sense to me.

 

No sense in penalizing a guy who played well enough to get promoted, and have him trail a guy who stayed behind and didn't play as well until later in the year.

It's the hot sheet. Purely stat based rankings among actual prospects. It's not a prospect ranking.

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