Freddy Garcia Piece

[DBAHO]

Thought it had some interesting bits in it;

 

When assessing the health of a starter, there are a few key indicators to watch for. One, of course, is velocity. When a player is hiding an injury or has lingering effects from surgery or a previous DL stint, he often sees a reduction in velocity. Fortunately for Garcia, his velocity is right where he left it in 2006, his last full season in the majors. While this is a good sign that he has recovered well from his latest shoulder escapade, this does not mean that he is back to form from his days in Seattle. In the early 2000s, when Garcia was at the best of his career, he was sitting in the 91 mph range (with a season at 93 mph in 2002). His arm has not been the same since 2006, when he dropped 2 mph on his fastball from 91.4 in '05 to 89.3 mph in '06. The Garcia of 2009 sits at 88.5 mph. While not the Garcia of old, a 0.8 mph drop in velocity is not much to be concerned about, considering all his arm has been through.

 

The second, and often more important, indicator is his command ratios. Even if a pitcher has a decrease in velocity, hitters will not be able to slug his stuff until he starts leaving it over the plate or getting into lots of hitter's counts ... and then there's the walks. Even with diminished velocity, should Garcia be able to control the strike zone and keep his walk totals down, he should be a relatively effective pitcher. Luckily for him, he has been able to do so, as his 2.83 BB/9 and 56.3 first-strike percentage are right in line with his career averages.

 

So where does this leave Freddy Garcia?

 

With below-average velocity but above-average command, Garcia should be in relatively good hands. He's not a keeper, so what really matters is what he'll be able to provide for the stretch run in the next few weeks. His shoulder should be able to hold up. So, what does he have left? We should be able to find some hints in his rate statistics.

 

When fishing for information on a pitcher's strikeout and walk profile, three important characteristics tell the tale: batter swing percentage, contact percentage, and pitcher zone percentage. These three indicators go a long way in reporting how patient batters are with a pitcher and how hard the pitcher is to hit. This season, Garcia has put together a 43.2 percent swing percentage, a 74 percent contact percentage, and a 49.3 percent zone percentage.

 

The zone percentage is not ideal, as it is low for a starting pitcher. This means that Garcia is frequently missing the plate, leading to more hitter's counts and more walks.

 

His swing percentage is also low, which exacerbates his problems commanding the zone. If batters are not offering at pitches, especially with the number he is throwing outside the zone, Garcia is almost assured to give up lots of walks.

 

But the money maker, contact percentage, is an excellent 74.0 percent. This actually piqued my interest as I was evaluating Garcia. While this season is the best he has had on record since this stat became available in 2002, Garcia has always had very good contact percentages, with a career rate (since 2002) of 77.5 percent.

 

It almost seems as if Garcia is pulling a trick on all of us.

 

Since 2002, Garcia has posted a 2.59 BB/9 along with a 6.66 K/9. Those are the numbers of a control pitcher who doesn't have swing-and-miss stuff. However, with a 77.5 contact percentage since 2002, Garcia should have been striking out far more batters than this, with seasons possibly in the 8s and 9s K/9. Factoring in his other plate discipline attributes, Garcia profiles more as a pitcher who strikes out 8 batters per nine innings, while walking 3-4. This is not at all the Freddy Garcia we have grown accustomed to, however.

 

So where does this leave us? On the one hand, questioning how a pitcher ever had such a profile but was never able to strike out 8 batters per nine innings. On the other hand, fascinated and curious that maybe Garcia is one of those pitchers who really does pitch to contact, despite having stuff to strike out batters.

 

On another note, how many of you want us to pick up his option for next season from what they've seen on him so far?

[SoxFan562004]

How much is his option? If it's reasonable I hope KW brings him back. With the 4 they have at the top a competition between Hudson, Torres, FG and a wild card or two for the fifth would be GREAT for this team.

[southsider2k5]

How much is his option? If it's reasonable I hope KW brings him back. With the 4 they have at the top a competition between Hudson, Torres, FG and a wild card or two for the fifth would be GREAT for this team.

 

A million dollars, with incentives of up to $2 mil based on IP.

[Harry Chappas]

Thought it had some interesting bits in it;

 

 

 

On another note, how many of you want us to pick up his option for next season from what they've seen on him so far?

 

He is as ideal a number 5 for a team that hopes to contend as there is.

 

 

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Absolutely i want them to pick up the option. Worst case scenario, he bombs and it's a loss of $1M. That's not a bad worst case scenario. Torres is more of a Carrasco type IMO, and there is no guarantee Hudson can come in next year and solidify the 5th starter spot. I have no problems at all bringing Freddy back and letting him and Hudson battle it out for the 5th spot.

[GreatScott82]

Freddy has been a reliable 5th starter for us. Pitched well vs Boston and New York in hostile environments. We would be foolish not to take that.

[elrockinMT]

Freddie as a fifth starter brings experience and the knowledge of how to pitch. He is a competitor and doesn't give in even when he doesn't have his best stuff. I like Garcia as an option for next season

Edited September 16, 2009 by elrockinMT

[Chisoxfn]

He's a no brainer as a 5th starter. Huddy can get a little more seasoning and be the guy to step in if anyone goes down and than take over from there.

[southsider2k5]

He's a no brainer as a 5th starter. Huddy can get a little more seasoning and be the guy to step in if anyone goes down and than take over from there.

 

And he can always beat Freddy out. For what Garcia could do, you just don't pass up that deal. It is uber cheap. There is nothing wrong with Hudson starting off in Charlotte and maybe making a Beckham type entrance later in the season if he is still throwing well.

[Balta1701]

And he can always beat Freddy out. For what Garcia could do, you just don't pass up that deal. It is uber cheap. There is nothing wrong with Hudson starting off in Charlotte and maybe making a Beckham type entrance later in the season if he is still throwing well.

Saves an arbitration year if we can push him past June 1st as well, right?

[Milkman delivers]

THT?

[southsider2k5]

Saves an arbitration year if we can push him past June 1st as well, right?

 

I'm not sure exactly how that works, especially with the call up this year.

[knightni]

THT?

The Hardball Times

[Heads22]

Freddy heard we had Danks and wanted in.

[hogan873]

Absolutely bring Freddy back. He's been solid as a fifth starter and would hopefully do the same for us next year.

[Harry Chappas]

I'm not sure exactly how that works, especially with the call up this year.

 

I believe Sept call-ups do not impact his service time.

[knightni]

Freddy heard we had Danks and wanted in.

[dyuen]

I think he is a far better million buck option than fat Colon was. I don't know how anybody could have thought he would give us even 20 starts this year. At least Freddie has some heart and guts.

[TylerAtIU]

Freddy heard we had Danks and wanted in.

 

I'm there!

[MexSoxFan#1]

Sweaty Freddie in 2010!

[Jordan4life_2007]

Nice find@dbaho. And I would absolutely bring Freddy back for a measly million bucks next year. I think he's shown enough in 6 starts (not to mention we arguably don't win the division last year if Freddy doesn't have to leave the Detroit game prematurely because of injury) against some premium lineups that warrants the risk. Give me league average ERA/WHIP, something I think Freddy can easily accomplish if healthy, out of the #5 spot for that price and I'm one satisfied Sox fan.

[southsider2k5]

Nice find@dbaho. And I would absolutely bring Freddy back for a measly million bucks next year. I think he's shown enough in 6 starts (not to mention we arguably don't win the division last year if Freddy doesn't have to leave the Detroit game prematurely because of injury) against some premium lineups that warrants the risk. Give me league average ERA/WHIP, something I think Freddy can easily accomplish if healthy, out of the #5 spot for that price and I'm one satisfied Sox fan.

 

And for between one and three million dollars? That is a steal in this day and age.

[DBAHO]

And for between one and three million dollars? That is a steal in this day and age.

I think KW still needs to look at bringing in another cheap / veteran option though.

 

I know Hudson's probably going to be ready next season also, but it's better to be safe than sorry.

 

At least bring in someone on a MLC, if you can.

 

But I agree with the sentiment that Freddy should be back, and you gotta give him credit for what he is doing, considering his lack of velocity compared to a few seasons ago.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I think KW still needs to look at bringing in another cheap / veteran option though.

 

I know Hudson's probably going to be ready next season also, but it's better to be safe than sorry.

 

At least bring in someone on a MLC, if you can.

 

But I agree with the sentiment that Freddy should be back, and you gotta give him credit for what he is doing, considering his lack of velocity compared to a few seasons ago.

Hynick and Ely will be in Charlotte next year so if Kenny needs a brief 6th starter or spot starter then he can go to one of those guys.

 

If our rotation faces a major injury or two, then whoever it would be that Kenny could conceivably bring in on a minor league deal probably wouldn't cut it anyway. We would either have to trade for a significant improvement or else insert someone into our rotation who we don't really want pitching, and if we have to do that, I'd rather go young. I'll take Hynick or Ely over garbage like Tomko any day of the week.

 

Besides, there are always veteran 5th/6th starters like Chad Gaudin available for nothing, so it's not like we really need another Bartolo sitting around.

[Steve9347]

It's a no-brainer. Pick up the option.