What Would Bobby Jenks bring back via trade?

[beck72]

Bob Nightengale of the USA Today Twittered yesterday that he thinks Bobby Jenks will be traded in the offseason.

 

http://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/4089283624

 

I could see that. Jenks is getting expensive, he's had an off year, the Sox have Thornton who could close, and he's a guy who has value in the trade market [i've advocated Alexei being moved, but it seems unlikely given his low cost and no other option for 3b/ SS if Beckham replaces him]. That way, the sox could fill a few holes, improve their young talent and still contend. IMO, the sox need to add at least another good, LH bat who could start in 2010. The OF would seem to be the best spot to add a bat who could contend for a position. [Or 1b, if the sox could have Konerko OK a trade to the west coast.]

 

I'm not sure of the teams that would be in the market for Jenks. Yet IMO, he should net the sox

1] a top OF prospect who could start in 2010, bat LH, and be solid defensively [a team's 1-5 prospect];

2] a SP who could be in AAA to start the year, yet could be in the rotation if an injury occurs [give me a LHP, someone who could be added to the bullpen] a team's top 10-15 prospect];

 

I know MLB Trade Rumors speculates that Jenks could bring a similar return like George Sherrill did for the O's, a #8 and a #15 prospect [prior to 2009] from the LAD. Yet Bobby has had more success than Sherrill, and is younger. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/disc...obby-jenks.html

 

Thoughts on trading bobby; for what; and who should close/ be added to the bullpen if Thornton takes over?

[MattZakrowski]

The thing about making Thornton the closer is that Ozzie will never break the traditional 'closer' mindset, so were going to waste a really good LHP if he's in that role. I'd be ok with that if we could acquire another high caliber lefty (or just another good RP in general).

[beck72]

The thing about making Thornton the closer is that Ozzie will never break the traditional 'closer' mindset, so were going to waste a really good LHP if he's in that role. I'd be ok with that if we could acquire another high caliber lefty (or just another good RP in general).

The thing about Thornton, is he has pitched well vs both LH and RH hitters the last 3-4 years.

[Dick Allen]

If they get rid of Jenks, which seems likely considering what he'll be paid, I don't think the haul for him will be all that much considering his performance this year. He has 29 saves, but the majority of them have been with 3 run leads.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Billy Wagner, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, and Jose Valverde are among closers hitting FA.

 

Heath Bell, Kerry Wood, Matt Capps, and Chad Qualls will be among those others who are available.

 

Bobby will have some competition if the Sox try to move him, so I wouldn't expect to get a whole lot back in return. I'd expect 2 good prospects who would at least be under consideration for our current top-10 and then another prospect who is a bit further away and ranks lower because of it. I'd basically expect something like 1 pitcher with a ceiling of a #2/#3 starter who is no more than 2 years away, a power arm reliever (ideally a lefty one) who is pretty close to being ready, and then a player who spent 2009 in low-A or rookie league but has talent. I highly doubt we'd get a player who would appear on any top-100 prospects list right now.

[GoSox05]

I think any pitching we get back will be younger. I don't think anyone would trade major league ready pitching.

 

I think we have a better chance of getting a power hitting corner outfielder.

[elrockinMT]

Lower velocity with little movement and failure to consistetently break off that curve makes you wonder if Jenks is playing hurt

[WCSox]

I think any pitching we get back will be younger. I don't think anyone would trade major league ready pitching.

 

I agree, and that highlights the problem with trading Jenks. By committing over $100 million to Peavy and Rios this summer, Kenny's obviously trying to win now, not two or three years from now. People here correctly point out that Bobby's going to get more expensive next year and that he's having a down season (possibly indicative of a long-term decline), and they argue that KW should trade him now before his value decreases further. That mentality works fine for a rebuilding team, but if you're not going to get any talent in return that will help you win right away, it's the wrong approach. Kenny's obviously more interested in putting together the most competitive 25-man roster right now than getting the maximum trade value for players that don't fit into his long-term plans.

 

And as mediocre as Bobby has been this year, he's still the second best pitcher in this bullpen - and one of only two statistically-solid relievers. The rest of our 'pen has been nothing short of bad this season and will take another half-step back when Dotel walks this winter. If you deal Bobby for a player that isn't ML-ready, the Sox will be relying heavily on Linebrink, Pena, and whoever they bring up from the minors to fill the LOOGY role. Having only one reliable relief pitcher is a recipe for disaster.

 

The option of going after a FA closer to replace Bobby is also problematic. The cream of the crop (Valverde, Soriano, Qualls) will command three- or four-year deals and you'll have to over-pay them to beat out other teams in the bidding war. These guys might perform better than Bobby, but they also carry a lot more financial risk. If they fall apart (remember, they'll all be over 30 next season), Kenny's stuck with another Linebrink-like albatross of a contract. If Bobby falls apart next year, the Sox can trade his rights for an A-baller or release him outright and spend on somebody else next winter. Kenny also has the option of going cheap with a Kerry Wood or Kevin Gregg, but both of those guys were worse than Jenks this year and are not exactly getting better with age. I'd also wait until more salary comes off the books next winter before considering a multi-year deal for a veteran closer.

 

I agree with NSS that riding Bobby through the arbitration-eligible years and grooming another closer in our farm system is probably the best way to go. At the very least, wait and see if Bobby has a second down year in a row before dumping him. Realistically, I don't see him doing much worse than this year (which wasn't exactly terrible) and his upside is probably a repeat of 2008 (pretty good).

Edited September 19, 2009 by WCSox

[Dick Allen]

I agree, and that highlights the problem with trading Jenks. By committing over $100 million to Peavy and Rios this summer, Kenny's obviously trying to win now, not two or three years from now. People here correctly point out that Bobby's going to get more expensive next year and that he's having a down season (possibly indicative of a long-term decline), and they argue that KW should trade him now before his value decreases further. That mentality works fine for a rebuilding team, but if you're not going to get any talent in return that will help you win right away, it's the wrong approach. Kenny's obviously more interested in putting together the most competitive 25-man roster right now than getting the maximum trade value for players that don't fit into his long-term plans.

 

And as mediocre as Bobby has been this year, he's still the second best pitcher in this bullpen - and one of only two statistically-solid relievers. The rest of our 'pen has been nothing short of bad this season and will take another half-step back when Dotel walks this winter. If you deal Bobby for a player that isn't ML-ready, the Sox will be relying heavily on Linebrink, Pena, and whoever they bring up from the minors to fill the LOOGY role. Having only one reliable relief pitcher is a recipe for disaster.

 

The option of going after a FA closer to replace Bobby is also problematic. The cream of the crop (Valverde, Soriano, Qualls) will command three- or four-year deals and you'll have to over-pay them to beat out other teams in the bidding war. These guys might perform better than Bobby, but they also carry a lot more financial risk. If they fall apart (remember, they'll all be over 30 next season), Kenny's stuck with another Linebrink-like albatross of a contract. If Bobby falls apart next year, the Sox can trade his rights for an A-baller or release him outright and spend on somebody else next winter. Kenny also has the option of going cheap with a Kerry Wood or Kevin Gregg, but both of those guys were worse than Jenks this year and are not exactly getting better with age. I'd also wait until more salary comes off the books next winter before considering a multi-year deal for a veteran closer.

 

I agree with NSS that riding Bobby through the arbitration-eligible years and grooming another closer in our farm system is probably the best way to go. At the very least, wait and see if Bobby has a second down year in a row before dumping him. Realistically, I don't see him doing much worse than this year (which wasn't exactly terrible) and his upside is probably a repeat of 2008 (pretty good).

 

This year was terrible. There are a ton of pitchers making a lot less money than Jenks that would have done better being put in the same situations. I posted his saves about a month ago. He was 50% in one run saves at that time. He had 2 or 3 games he had saves in when he came in with a 2 run lead, but the majority of his saves were in games he had to get 3 outs before he gave up 3 runs. Not exactly a tough save. 9 homers allowed and he hasn't pitched 60 innings. He's been awful, but his numbers will command $7-8 million next year. If you pay a guy who pitches 10 innings a month that amount, you better have a good team.

Edited September 19, 2009 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

This year was terrible. There are a ton of pitchers making a lot less money than Jenks that would have done better being put in the same situations. I posted his saves about a month ago. He was 50% in one run saves at that time. He had 2 or 3 games he had saves in when he came in with a 2 run lead, but the majority of his saves were in games he had to get 3 outs before he gave up 3 runs. Not exactly a tough save. 9 homers allowed and he hasn't pitched 60 innings. He's been awful, but his numbers will command $7-8 million next year. If you pay a guy who pitches 10 innings a month that amount, you better have a good team.

 

or he better be damn good which, as you pointed out, he has not been

[Dick Allen]

or he better be damn good which, as you pointed out, he has not been

Both really, but what I'm saying is if you are going to have a guy you will pay over $100,000 an inning, you better have a team that's a legit WS contender, not something like the average at best team that was fielded this year. Peavy is a great addition. He can give up 10 runs tonight and I'll still believe that, but this roster needs some adjusting.

[son of a rude]

I don't care, but I think we need to get rid of him I don't want to be paying 7-8 mil for somebody of his quality. Bullpen's are always iffy. One year they can be great, the next they can be trash. I say we make maybe 1 free agent signing to help the bullpen and see what some of our younger guys can do during spring training.

Edited September 19, 2009 by son of a rude

[NCsoxfan]

I could picture a Jon Garland type trade where we get back someone who is in a similar situation (contract/talent etc..). There's no way we'll get a haul of top prospects.

[Dick Allen]

I could picture a Jon Garland type trade where we get back someone who is in a similar situation (contract/talent etc..). There's no way we'll get a haul of top prospects.

 

This is probably the most realistic option if quality is what you are looking for. The Sox may just want to save a few bucks though and like you said, that route will probably not net you a top 5 prospect.

[daa84]

we waited a year too late to trade jenks... i said it before the season that we should have shopped him while we could still get a good chunk in return for him...now, he will be expensive, another year closer to FA, another year older, and another year worse for any team that is looking at him...There is a perfect team to shop him to no farther than 8 miles north...but i'm not sure they have the young players we'd be looking to get in return....

 

at any rate i hope KW has learned that the real way to build bullpens is internally and not by signing higher priced veterans like linebrink and dotel cuz with middle relievers you end up paying for a whole lot of mediocrity, when you can typically get a whole lot of mediocrity from guys from your system

[elrockinMT]

Linebrink better not be here next year. I can't believe that the Sox would keep him next year after this debacle of a second half.

[WCSox]

This year was terrible. There are a ton of pitchers making a lot less money than Jenks that would have done better being put in the same situations.

 

Yeah, and they're either not tradeable or are going to cost a ton in guaranteed money as FAs this winter. We're stuck with trash like Tony Pena, Lance Broadway, and Jimmy Gobble as our realistic cheap options.

 

I posted his saves about a month ago. He was 50% in one run saves at that time. He had 2 or 3 games he had saves in when he came in with a 2 run lead, but the majority of his saves were in games he had to get 3 outs before he gave up 3 runs. Not exactly a tough save. 9 homers allowed and he hasn't pitched 60 innings. He's been awful, but his numbers will command $7-8 million next year. If you pay a guy who pitches 10 innings a month that amount, you better have a good team.

 

I don't consider a 1.28 WHIP "terrible" for a closer. By that definition, K-Rod has also been "terrible" this year. Statistically, Jenks was a lot better this year than he was in 2006.

 

All I hear on this site is "Jenks sucks," "Jenks costs too much," "get rid of him," but I never hear a viable alternative. I agree that $7 million next year would be over-paying him, but who are you going to replace him with? Thornton, who's never closed in his life? Who's going to take the setup role then? Linebrink? Are you going to dole out a 4-year/$20 mil deal to somebody like Valverde, who's entering the downside of his career? The Sox have historically done best with closers who they've developed in their minor league system (Jenks, Foulke, Hernandez, Thigpen), and I don't see that strategy changing. I don't see anybody in our farm system who appears capable of stepping in, and that would be a hell of a gamble as well.

 

This is a baseball team, not the stock market. You're trying to put a winning team together, not avoid over-paying players at all costs. Our bullpen completely sucks right now and dumping Jenks would be tantamount to eliminating half of its effective pitchers. The Sox need to add talent to the bullpen, not subtract it.

Edited September 19, 2009 by WCSox

[WCSox]

Linebrink better not be here next year. I can't believe that the Sox would keep him next year after this debacle of a second half.

 

He'll be here. Take a look at his contract.

 

[beck72]

I think something we can all agree on is that Bobby's value won't be all that high--based on his year, other closers being available, and increasing salary [though I'd expect the sox are argue hard against him getting much of an increase in arb.] The sox would probably be hard pressed to get two solid peices in return for Jenks that could make the roster in 2010--any move of Jenks should be made that wouldn't worsen the 2010 team. I could see a young OFer [less than 28] who a team could move if they have a younger player coming up--say like David Murphy of the Rangers, as they have Julio Borbon ready for the OF, along with younger pitching.

 

That being said, the sox may have to move another player or two who has value in order to help improve the sox talent level.

[son of a rude]

I wonder if we could possibly net JJ Hardy in a trade... He had an off year this year, but he is one of the best defensive SS and was great the two previous years. The Brewers have a good prospect Alcides Escobar that they brought up to play SS, so it doesn't seem like they have room for Hardy anymore.

 

I'd be so freakin happy if we could get this trade done. I would throw in some decent prospects with Jenks if we could do it. They have Hoffman signed this year, but I'm not sure if they will sign him again next year. Hardy is a beast on offense and defense when he is on. He would be a great addition. We could move Alexei to 2b and trade slappy mcpop getz or something. It would really solidify out defense, something that will help greatly with this great pitching staff.

[jphat007]

Who the f*** is gonna pitch in the bullpen? Thornton and who? Everybody else that we have sucks. Jenks has at least shown that he can be solid at times. Unless you want Linebring and Pena as primary setup men. If thats what you want, go ahead and trade Jenks.

 

Any trade we did for Jenks would have to bring back and good setup man.

[son of a rude]

Who the f*** is gonna pitch in the bullpen? Thornton and who? Everybody else that we have sucks. Jenks has at least shown that he can be solid at times. Unless you want Linebring and Pena as primary setup men. If thats what you want, go ahead and trade Jenks.

 

Any trade we did for Jenks would have to bring back and good setup man.

I'd rather give some of the younger guys a chance than having a 50% chance of losing the game when we have a 1 run lead (especially at around 8mil per year...) He just isn't worth the money.

 

[beck72]

I wonder if we could possibly net JJ Hardy in a trade... He had an off year this year, but he is one of the best defensive SS and was great the two previous years. The Brewers have a good prospect Alcides Escobar that they brought up to play SS, so it doesn't seem like they have room for Hardy anymore.

 

I'd be so freakin happy if we could get this trade done. I would throw in some decent prospects with Jenks if we could do it. They have Hoffman signed this year, but I'm not sure if they will sign him again next year. Hardy is a beast on offense and defense when he is on. He would be a great addition. We could move Alexei to 2b and trade slappy mcpop getz or something. It would really solidify out defense, something that will help greatly with this great pitching staff.

If the sox could get Hardy in a trade for Jenks, the sox could then move Alexei for major league talent. This is key for any 2010 success-improving the roster. The sox then wouldn't have to move gordon from 3b, and Getz would still be solid at 2b.

 

The Red sox would probably be interested in Alexei. Then the Sox could possibly get a lefty hitting OFer like Josh Reddick along with pitching, to help improve the bullpen/ depth in starting pitching. The talent the sox would get in a trade of Alexei would be guys they could plug in immediately.

[beck72]

Who the f*** is gonna pitch in the bullpen? Thornton and who? Everybody else that we have sucks. Jenks has at least shown that he can be solid at times. Unless you want Linebring and Pena as primary setup men. If thats what you want, go ahead and trade Jenks.

 

Any trade we did for Jenks would have to bring back and good setup man.

Two guys who should pitch in late inning set up should be Carrasco and Dan Hudson. With the sox bringing back Freddy, Hudson would be a good late inning option.

[son of a rude]

If the sox could get Hardy in a trade for Jenks, the sox could then move Alexei for major league talent. This is key for any 2010 success-improving the roster. The sox then wouldn't have to move gordon from 3b, and Getz would still be solid at 2b.

 

The Red sox would probably be interested in Alexei. Then the Sox could possibly get a lefty hitting OFer like Josh Reddick along with pitching, to help improve the bullpen/ depth in starting pitching. The talent the sox would get in a trade of Alexei would be guys they could plug in immediately.

I like Alexei a lot. I think we would need to get a lot in return for him. JJ Hardy + Jayson Nix (Assuming he improves on making less boneheaded plays) would be an amazing defensive infield.