What Would Bobby Jenks bring back via trade?

[jphat007]

Two guys who should pitch in late inning set up should be Carrasco and Dan Hudson. With the sox bringing back Freddy, Hudson would be a good late inning option.

 

So you are cool with going into the season as Carrasco and Hudson as your main setup guys? I can't say I agree. And then who is the primary guy against lefties? Randy Williams?

[son of a rude]

And the worst offnesive double play combo in baseball.

Right... JJ Hardy was one of the best offensive shortstops the past 2 years. he is having an off year. I'm sure he would bounce back. I also think Jayson Nix is better than Getz. His range at 2b is a lot better, but he needs to improve on the boneheaded plays. I think another year of experience and playing full time, he would get better. In my opinion, .750+ OPS and great defense from both players is acceptable for SS and 2b.

[beck72]

I like Alexei a lot. I think we would need to get a lot in return for him. JJ Hardy + Jayson Nix (Assuming he improves on making less boneheaded plays) would be an amazing defensive infield.

If the Sox were to acquire Hardy in a trade for Jenks, an Alexei trade could help to improve the talent level on the 2010 and 2011 sox a lot. There would be a lot of teams who would be in on Alexei-starting with Boston. I like Josh Reddick a lot. And with Bay likely to re-sign there, would be blocked by him, Drew and Ellsbury. Reddick plus some pitching [say Michael Bowden or Felix Doubront] would be a nice haul for Alexei [this is probably over valuing Alexei].

[beck72]

Right... JJ Hardy was one of the best offensive shortstops the past 2 years. he is having an off year. I'm sure he would bounce back. I also think Jayson Nix is better than Getz. His range at 2b is a lot better, but he needs to improve on the boneheaded plays. I think another year of experience and playing full time, he would get better. In my opinion, .750+ OPS and great defense from both players is acceptable for SS and 2b.

Getz is still going to start over Nix. But that's besides the point

[Dick Allen]

Yeah, and they're either not tradeable or are going to cost a ton in guaranteed money as FAs this winter. We're stuck with trash like Tony Pena, Lance Broadway, and Jimmy Gobble as our realistic cheap options.

 

 

 

I don't consider a 1.28 WHIP "terrible" for a closer. By that definition, K-Rod has also been "terrible" this year. Statistically, Jenks was a lot better this year than he was in 2006.

 

All I hear on this site is "Jenks sucks," "Jenks costs too much," "get rid of him," but I never hear a viable alternative. I agree that $7 million next year would be over-paying him, but who are you going to replace him with? Thornton, who's never closed in his life? Who's going to take the setup role then? Linebrink? Are you going to dole out a 4-year/$20 mil deal to somebody like Valverde, who's entering the downside of his career? The Sox have historically done best with closers who they've developed in their minor league system (Jenks, Foulke, Hernandez, Thigpen), and I don't see that strategy changing. I don't see anybody in our farm system who appears capable of stepping in, and that would be a hell of a gamble as well.

 

This is a baseball team, not the stock market. You're trying to put a winning team together, not avoid over-paying players at all costs. Our bullpen completely sucks right now and dumping Jenks would be tantamount to eliminating half of its effective pitchers. The Sox need to add talent to the bullpen, not subtract it.

 

So on a team where budget is everything, you think its necessary to pay a guy with an ERA in the mid 3/s who converts saves when he comes in with a one run lead 50% of the time, over $100,000 an inning?

 

I'm saying there are guys on the roster that if placed in the exact same situations as Jenks this year would have converted just as many if not more saves. Guys like Pena and Linebrink even if you throw them into an 8-5 game can get you a save. That's been about 16 or 17 of Jenks opportunities this year. He's been bad. He will tell you that himself.

 

 

Edited September 19, 2009 by Dick Allen

[son of a rude]

If the Sox were to acquire Hardy in a trade for Jenks, an Alexei trade could help to improve the talent level on the 2010 and 2011 sox a lot. There would be a lot of teams who would be in on Alexei-starting with Boston. I like Josh Reddick a lot. And with Bay likely to re-sign there, would be blocked by him, Drew and Ellsbury. Reddick plus some pitching [say Michael Bowden or Felix Doubront] would be a nice haul for Alexei [this is probably over valuing Alexei].

I don't think it is over valuing him too much. He is a young, cheap shortstop who puts up above average numbers at the position.

 

Boston could be going for Hardy though.

[beck72]

I don't think it is over valuing him too much. He is a young, cheap shortstop who puts up above average numbers at the position.

 

Boston could be going for Hardy though.

I wouldn't think Boston would be in the market for a reclamation project like Hardy. That would be a hard sell for the fan base. Alexei, OTOH, wouldn't be hard to sell. Esp. as he's cheap.

[WCSox]

So on a team where budget is everything, you think its necessary to pay a guy with an ERA in the mid 3/s who converts saves when he comes in with a one run lead 50% of the time, over $100,000 an inning?

 

Budget is everything with the Sox??? Alex Rios says hi. Clearly, that is not the case, and a 1-year/$7M deal would be far from a budget-breaker.

 

I'm saying there are guys on the roster that if placed in the exact same situations as Jenks this year would have converted just as many if not more saves. Guys like Pena and Linebrink even if you throw them into an 8-5 game can get you a save. That's been about 16 or 17 of Jenks opportunities this year. He's been bad. He will tell you that himself.

 

Pena and Linebrink (and even Dotel) have been significantly worse than Jenks this year...

 

Pena: 1.41 WHIP

Linebrink: 1.64 WHIP

Dotel: 1.48 WHIP

Jenks: 1.28 WHIP

 

... and I doubt that they'd be any more (or even equally) effective in the closer role. I absolutely agree that Jenks is not having a good year, but the numbers really show how incredibly bad the rest of our bullpen is. If you're going to deal Jenks, you absolutely need to do better than the above supporting cast as a replacement. Thornton is the only viable in-house option, but that also creates a hole in the setup role and takes away the option of using him as a left-handed specialist on occasion. The other option would be free agency, but then you're looking at $20M+ in guaranteed money for somebody good (i.e., not a Keery Wood or Kevin Gregg). The Sox have also had a ton of success developing their own closers over the past 20 years, so I don't see them shelling out a K-Rod-type deal (or anything close to it) on a FA.

 

[Flash Tizzle]

Two guys who should pitch in late inning set up should be Carrasco and Dan Hudson. With the sox bringing back Freddy, Hudson would be a good late inning option.

I see Hudson as a Philip Hughes type of pitcher who could come in, air it out for one, perhaps two innings, and if a starting pitcher's arm falls off/is ineffective he could be available to replace him.

 

I've always been one to believe if a starting pitcher prospect isn't starting for the majors he should be in the minors, but really, it's not as if there are other options for our bullpen. Jenks just isn't worth his salary.

Edited September 19, 2009 by Flash Tizzle

[GreatScott82]

I think Alexei and Bobby will be our biggest trading cards this winter. Hopefully KW plays his cards wisely.

[sircaffey]

Budget is everything with the Sox??? Alex Rios says hi. Clearly, that is not the case, and a 1-year/$7M deal would be far from a budget-breaker.

 

 

 

Pena and Linebrink (and even Dotel) have been significantly worse than Jenks this year...

 

Pena: 1.41 WHIP

Linebrink: 1.64 WHIP

Dotel: 1.48 WHIP

Jenks: 1.28 WHIP

 

... and I doubt that they'd be any more (or even equally) effective in the closer role. I absolutely agree that Jenks is not having a good year, but the numbers really show how incredibly bad the rest of our bullpen is. If you're going to deal Jenks, you absolutely need to do better than the above supporting cast as a replacement. Thornton is the only viable in-house option, but that also creates a hole in the setup role and takes away the option of using him as a left-handed specialist on occasion. The other option would be free agency, but then you're looking at $20M+ in guaranteed money for somebody good (i.e., not a Keery Wood or Kevin Gregg). The Sox have also had a ton of success developing their own closers over the past 20 years, so I don't see them shelling out a K-Rod-type deal (or anything close to it) on a FA.

 

If the rest of our pen is as bad as it was this year, then we're f'd anyways. I'm of the opinion, that you don't keep around a ~$10 mil above average reliever just because the rest of your bullpen struggled last year. Especially when those pen guys have had a decent history of success. That's not using your resources to the fullest. The move from Jenks to Thornton at closer is an immediate upgrade, imo. Also, don't overlook the fact that Jenks could be even worse next year. He's certainly trending that way.

[knightni]

Right... JJ Hardy was one of the best offensive shortstops the past 2 years. he is having an off year. I'm sure he would bounce back. I also think Jayson Nix is better than Getz. His range at 2b is a lot better, but he needs to improve on the boneheaded plays.

Okay, what about stealing bases?

 

No Getz, no Ramirez = relying on Pods a lot for the extra steals.

 

[WCSox]

I'm of the opinion, that you don't keep around a ~$10 mil above average reliever just because the rest of your bullpen struggled last year. Especially when those pen guys have had a decent history of success. That's not using your resources to the fullest. The move from Jenks to Thornton at closer is an immediate upgrade, imo. Also, don't overlook the fact that Jenks could be even worse next year. He's certainly trending that way.

 

So, Linebrink and Pena's "decent history of success" is a positive, but Jenks' history of success is somehow not applicable because he may be worse next year because of a perceived short-term trend? Jenks has had a lot more recent success than Linebrink or Pena, so this conclusion doesn't make much sense to me. If I had to bet on Jenks vs. Linebrink to bounce back next year, I'd take Jenks all the way. Jenks' "downward trend" started with one of the best closer seasons in Sox history (2007) and was followed by a very good season (2008). I look at it as Bobby having a down year after two really good years, and don't see why he can't bonce back. He did this after his career-worst 2006 season.

 

I also disagree that Thronton is an "immediate upgrade" at closer. First of all, he's never closed in his life and nobody knows how he'll respond to that role. For all we know, he could be the next LaTroy Hawkins or Carlos Marmol. Also, moving Thornton to closer creates an immediate downgrade at the setup position and takes away the possibility of him being an occasional left-handed specalist.

 

I'm all for Kenny going out and signing somebody like Valverde, but that's going to be A LOT more guaranteed money than giving Bobby a one-year/$7M deal. I guess it depends on what Kenny wants to do. But I don't trust any of our other in-house options, or a retread like Kerry Wood.

 

If the rest of our pen is as bad as it was this year, then we're f'd anyways.

 

This is absolutely true. You need more than one or two effective relievers, and we need Linebrink and Pena to be at least semi-decent next season.

Edited September 19, 2009 by WCSox

[League]

I love the idea of trading Jenks for Hardy, he and Beckham would make one of the most rangy left sides in baseball.

 

I would look for at least two things in an Alexei trade: A high quality, major league reliever and a nearly ML ready outfielder.

[sircaffey]

So, Linebrink and Pena's "decent history of success" is a positive, but Jenks' history of success is somehow not applicable because he may be worse next year because of a perceived short-term trend? Jenks has had a lot more recent success than Linebrink or Pena, so this conclusion doesn't make much sense to me. If I had to bet on Jenks vs. Linebrink to bounce back next year, I'd take Jenks all the way. Jenks' "downward trend" started with one of the best closer seasons in Sox history (2007) and was followed by a very good season (2008). I look at it as Bobby having a down year after two really good years, and don't see why he can't bonce back. He did this after his career-worst 2006 season.

 

Never said it wasn't applicable. But I'm not tying up another $8 million to assure ourselves that we have an above average reliever in the pen. I'd rather take the chance at one of the others bouncing back to the level they've shown they can be at.

 

Bobby has progressively gotten more and more hittable the past 3 seasons. In addition his walk rate has steadily increased during that same time. These are pretty solid trends. He very well may buck them, but it's certainly worth noting. I was all for trading Bobby before this season, and am still in the same boat. He's an old 28. He has a reconstructed elbow, he's obese, and his substance abuse/lifestyle earlier in life, scream he's got a short shelf life. It's because of all this that I see these trends as worrisome, and not just blips on the radar.

[greg775]

Doesn't he have 6 blown saves?

Is that his worst career blown saves mark?

He hasn't been automatic, but he does have some saves. I wonder how many "blown" assignments or equally inept performances guys like Linebrink, Dotel, Pena, Carrasco have. I know Dotel and Linebrink have at least six; Pena probably close to that even though he was a late addition and Carrasco may be great, but he's had a few horses*** outings.

If Bob has to go, I hope they give it to Thornton, though that means we'll have another hole in our set up situation. That other lefty we have, I forget his name, is not good.

 

What I'm saying is you may hate Bob for his six blown saves, but it's possible our next closer could make you pull out your hair also.

Edited September 19, 2009 by greg775

[son of a rude]

Okay, what about stealing bases?

 

No Getz, no Ramirez = relying on Pods a lot for the extra steals.

I'm not a huge fan of stolen bases. Sure they are good, but when you get caught stealing, it is a real easy way to kill the inning. Getz is great at base stealing and it is an asset to the team. Alexei is decent, but he has gotten caught a little over 1/4 of the time he has stolen. That barely makes his steals worth it. The higher slugging of Nix and Hardy combined would mean more extra base hits. That combined with their defense makes me like that combo more.

 

I can see your argument about hanging on to Getz for his great base stealing and speed, but I think that Nix would be able to play great defense and solidify the infield next year (and i am a sucked for slugging and OPS).

[WCSox]

Never said it wasn't applicable. But I'm not tying up another $8 million to assure ourselves that we have an above average reliever in the pen. I'd rather take the chance at one of the others bouncing back to the level they've shown they can be at.

 

None of them have closed before (except Dotel, who will be pitching for somebody else in March). Pitching well as a setup man or 7th inning guy is a lot different than closing.

 

Also, a crap pen that can't hold leads severely undermines the investment in Peavy.

 

Bobby has progressively gotten more and more hittable the past 3 seasons. In addition his walk rate has steadily increased during that same time. These are pretty solid trends. He very well may buck them, but it's certainly worth noting. I was all for trading Bobby before this season, and am still in the same boat. He's an old 28. He has a reconstructed elbow, he's obese, and his substance abuse/lifestyle earlier in life, scream he's got a short shelf life. It's because of all this that I see these trends as worrisome, and not just blips on the radar.

 

I disagree that it's a "solid trend" (more like a one-year dip, especially when you look at his entire career), but I'll buy the wear-and-tear argument. I certainly don't want him here past 2010.

 

I have no problem replacing Bobby, but it needs to be with a veteran closer who can still pitch at a high level. Otherwise, it's a step backwards.

Edited September 19, 2009 by WCSox

[sircaffey]

None of them have closed before (except Dotel, who will be pitching for somebody else in March). Pitching well as a setup man or 7th inning guy is a lot different than closing.

 

Also, a crap pen that can't hold leads severely undermines the investment in Peavy.

 

 

 

I disagree that it's a "solid trend" (more like a one-year dip, especially when you look at his entire career), but I'll buy the wear-and-tear argument. I certainly don't want him here past 2010.

 

I have no problem replacing Bobby, but it needs to be with a veteran closer who can still pitch at a high level. Otherwise, it's a step backwards.

 

I guess you can manipulate the data as you want. His consistent regression in 2 key categories (BAA, BB/9) is worrisome, to me. I could understand if it was more random, but it's quite consistent. And the killer for me, is during this same time his workload has decreased steadily as well. He can no longer pitch 60 games, and I doubt he pitches 55 games next season (with serious DL time a distinct possibility). I think this fits perfectly with the wear-and-tear argument, and that we've seen the last days of Bobby being a quality closer.

 

Your assumption that Thornton would fail as closer is just ridiculous. If Latroy Hawkins never pitched for the Cubs, people in Chicago would be much more willing to allow top setup men to close. He makes people forget that some of the best closers were once top setup men.

Edited September 20, 2009 by sircaffey

[gosox41]

Doesn't he have 6 blown saves?

Is that his worst career blown saves mark?

He hasn't been automatic, but he does have some saves. I wonder how many "blown" assignments or equally inept performances guys like Linebrink, Dotel, Pena, Carrasco have. I know Dotel and Linebrink have at least six; Pena probably close to that even though he was a late addition and Carrasco may be great, but he's had a few horses*** outings.

If Bob has to go, I hope they give it to Thornton, though that means we'll have another hole in our set up situation. That other lefty we have, I forget his name, is not good.

 

What I'm saying is you may hate Bob for his six blown saves, but it's possible our next closer could make you pull out your hair also.

 

 

For a lot less money. For the $7MM or so he will get in arbitration, he isn't worth it if he pitches like he did this year.

 

 

[striker]

Tampa Bay will be in the market for a closer. How about Jenks for Crawford? TB get's 2 years of Jenks for 1 year of Crawford. Plus they have a surplus of outfielders.

 

The bullpen is such a coin toss. Look at guys like Foulke, MacDougal and Aardsma that all did bad then turned it around somewhere else. Look at guys like Hermanson, Polite and Cotts that out of no where put together career years and win us a world series. There are few gurantees in the bullpen (Papelbon, Rivera, Nathan) and no one is going to give up any of their gurantees. You just have to put good players out there, like Kenny has, and hope they do their job. I think bullpen statistics can be skewed though. If you have 1 bad outing then it will take you alot of perfect outings to turn your numbers around.

 

You could dump Jenk's salary and turn around and sign Wagner with the money Jenks would have made. Your risk isn't any different though. I guess it depends on who you get for Jenks.

[striker]

Heres another trade for you. Jenks and Danks for Fielder. Brewers need pitching.

[son of a rude]

Tampa Bay will be in the market for a closer. How about Jenks for Crawford? TB get's 2 years of Jenks for 1 year of Crawford. Plus they have a surplus of outfielders.

 

The bullpen is such a coin toss. Look at guys like Foulke, MacDougal and Aardsma that all did bad then turned it around somewhere else. Look at guys like Hermanson, Polite and Cotts that out of no where put together career years and win us a world series. There are few gurantees in the bullpen (Papelbon, Rivera, Nathan) and no one is going to give up any of their gurantees. You just have to put good players out there, like Kenny has, and hope they do their job. I think bullpen statistics can be skewed though. If you have 1 bad outing then it will take you alot of perfect outings to turn your numbers around.

 

You could dump Jenk's salary and turn around and sign Wagner with the money Jenks would have made. Your risk isn't any different though. I guess it depends on who you get for Jenks.

This isn't MLB 09 the show...

[striker]

This isn't MLB 09 the show...

 

I don't think that's too crazy of a trade. TB gets a closer for two years. They free up $3mil. And the can replace Crawford with Jennings.

[kitekrazy]

Heres another trade for you. Jenks and Danks for Fielder. Brewers need pitching.

 

and..........the Sox don't need pitching?

 

Let's see this thread started with Jenks for "prospects" to Alexi for a "quality reliever". It amazes me how fans value players.

 

A closer is not the easiest hole to fill. Why is it that teams that have a reliable one seem to hang on to them?

Pitching will always be expensive when you have to get it outside of your organization.

 

I don't see Kenny getting rid of Jenks unless it is an outstanding deal. Then you have to fill that hole. If it's Thornton, then you lost a valuable setup man. That's another hole to fill.

 

Also when it comes to free agency, how often do the Sox outbid anyone? Most agents seek long term contracts. The Sox don't like them. That's why they end up signing guys like Linebrink.