What Would Bobby Jenks bring back via trade?

[Disco72]

and..........the Sox don't need pitching?

 

Let's see this thread started with Jenks for "prospects" to Alexi for a "quality reliever". It amazes me how fans value players.

 

A closer is not the easiest hole to fill. Why is it that teams that have a reliable one seem to hang on to them?

Pitching will always be expensive when you have to get it outside of your organization.

 

I don't see Kenny getting rid of Jenks unless it is an outstanding deal. Then you have to fill that hole. If it's Thornton, then you lost a valuable setup man. That's another hole to fill.

 

Also when it comes to free agency, how often do the Sox outbid anyone? Most agents seek long term contracts. The Sox don't like them. That's why they end up signing guys like Linebrink.

 

Linebrink was a reasonably sought after FA... that's what you have to do to get a decent relief pitcher - overpay in terms of dollars, years, or both. Most people aren't pleased with Liney's contract - yet that's exactly what the Sox will have to do to get another "good" relief pitcher on the open market if they trade Jenks. Which is why, as you said, you always overpay if you have to go outside your organization for pitching. Paying Bobby is worth it to give the organization another year to get talent ready for the major league level - or get a younger guy some mid-relief or setup experience. Alternatively, you go with the young guys plus Pena, Linebrink, Carasco, and Thornton and pray it works out.

[greg775]

For a lot less money. For the $7MM or so he will get in arbitration, he isn't worth it if he pitches like he did this year.

 

I don't want to hear about money after the Rios acquisition.

I'm just saying you may not like what you see in closer in the post Bobby era. He's been pretty damn good for us.

Somebody suggested Tampa wanting him for 2 years. If Tampa would want Bobby, why not us?? Sometimes people don't make sense to me. He's good enough to close for Tampa but not us?

[joeynach]

the sox should only trade jenks if they are serious about remaking the bullpen and adding some serious good arms. If not whats the point of making it weaker by trading jenks and call up AAA to make a pen.

[beck72]

So you are cool with going into the season as Carrasco and Hudson as your main setup guys? I can't say I agree. And then who is the primary guy against lefties? Randy Williams?

On my "to do list", fixing the lineup takes precedence over who is pitching in set up. Though I'd expect the sox to make a trade for a bullpen arm. If trading Bobby would help the sox offense get more versatile and improve defensively [such as adding Hardy, which would make Alexei expendable], then I'd be all for it.

 

Replacing Jenks with Thornton would probably be an upgrade at closer. Pena and Linebrink won't be as bad as they have been this year. Both have solid track records. Williams has shown he can get outs--prob. not as the main LH option though.

 

The best options will prob. come from within the sox org. Build around a closer, such as Thornton. I'd expect that the sox SP's in Birmingham and Charlotte will all be looked at as bullpen options for 2010, esp as the sox are set at 1-5, and # 6 being Hudson.

[beck72]

and..........the Sox don't need pitching?

 

Let's see this thread started with Jenks for "prospects" to Alexi for a "quality reliever". It amazes me how fans value players.

 

A closer is not the easiest hole to fill. Why is it that teams that have a reliable one seem to hang on to them?

Pitching will always be expensive when you have to get it outside of your organization.

 

I don't see Kenny getting rid of Jenks unless it is an outstanding deal. Then you have to fill that hole. If it's Thornton, then you lost a valuable setup man. That's another hole to fill.

 

Also when it comes to free agency, how often do the Sox outbid anyone? Most agents seek long term contracts. The Sox don't like them. That's why they end up signing guys like Linebrink.

This thread started with professional baseball writers, mainly Nightengale, who isn't a hack, and others who have their ears to the ground, suggesting Jenks is more likely to be traded than to remain with the team. That being the case, and knowing Kenny Williams isn't shy about pulling the trigger on a trade, scenarios were thrown out there. If you don't like the premise, that Jenks may be traded, fine. A solid case could be made for keeping Bobby. Yet the premise is that what to do if the sox are intent on trading him, what should they get back.

 

I posted that in an ideal trade for Bobby [iMO], I would want "prospects" that could be: #1] a LH hitter for the OF who could make the team to start 2010, and #2] a LHSP who could also start 2010 in the bullpen. They are major league ready prospects.

 

The sox have multiple holes to fill-and few trading chips. Jenks is one. If the sox traded Bobby [as "Son of a Rude" suggested, to MILW. for Hardy, and I'd expect another player from the brewers as well for Bobby] that could make Alexei another big trading chip. Those two trades should net the sox 3, maybe 4 players who could be on the sox 25 man roster to start the 2010 year.

 

The sox have their rotation set. Few teams do. But they still have some major lineup changes to make. Standing pat and adding Chone Figgins isn't the answer. More still needs to be done. The sox have made a lot of their changes via the trade. Few free agents are out there that make a lot of sense for the sox. And like you said, the sox don't sign many of them anyway [though I could see a veteran bullpen arm come to the sox for a cheap, and short term deal].

[beck72]

One LHP the sox could target via free agency is Mark Hendrickson. His splits as a releiver are much better than those as a SP. He made $1.5 mill this year, and prob, could get that as well in 2010.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?play...g&year=2009

 

He's been better the three years prior in relief, as well.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?play...ng3&three=1

[ThunderBolt]

No team who has resorted to Mark Hendrickson has come away saying, "Hey! Looks like we improved the bullpen!"

[League]

and..........the Sox don't need pitching?

 

Let's see this thread started with Jenks for "prospects" to Alexi for a "quality reliever". It amazes me how fans value players.

Or you could post the actual quote and get a high quality, major league reliever and a nearly ML ready outfielder.

 

You'd turn down Manny Delcarmen and Josh Reddick for Alexei?

Edited September 20, 2009 by League

[striker]

and..........the Sox don't need pitching?

 

Let's see this thread started with Jenks for "prospects" to Alexi for a "quality reliever". It amazes me how fans value players.

 

A closer is not the easiest hole to fill. Why is it that teams that have a reliable one seem to hang on to them?

Pitching will always be expensive when you have to get it outside of your organization.

 

I don't see Kenny getting rid of Jenks unless it is an outstanding deal. Then you have to fill that hole. If it's Thornton, then you lost a valuable setup man. That's another hole to fill.

 

Also when it comes to free agency, how often do the Sox outbid anyone? Most agents seek long term contracts. The Sox don't like them. That's why they end up signing guys like Linebrink.

 

I just said that for sake of conversation. No one knows what Kenny is doing nor do they know what he will do. If you don't like what fans post then I would suggest staying away from message boards, most of us aren't going to be as smart as you.

[WCSox]

I guess you can manipulate the data as you want. His consistent regression in 2 key categories (BAA, BB/9) is worrisome, to me. I could understand if it was more random, but it's quite consistent. And the killer for me, is during this same time his workload has decreased steadily as well. He can no longer pitch 60 games, and I doubt he pitches 55 games next season (with serious DL time a distinct possibility). I think this fits perfectly with the wear-and-tear argument, and that we've seen the last days of Bobby being a quality closer.

 

Speaking of "manipulation," you're cherry-picking data over the past three seasons. Bobby's BB/9 is still significantly lower than it was in 2005 and 2006. His BAA and WHIP are also significantly lower than they were in 2006, and just above his 2005 numbers. If you want to play with more numbers, Bobby's K/BB jumped significantly from last year and is currently above his career average. What you don't seem to (want to) recognize is that Bobby had a career, Rivera-like year in 2007 and another really good year in 2008. Both seasons were well above his career average, so it's only logical to expect a regression at some point. Not surprisingly, his current numbers are in between his 2005 and 2006 performances. I don't see one more year of 2005/2006 Bobby as a negative, but that's just my opinion.

 

Jenks' short-term "downward trend" of BAA and BB/9 is due to a decline in command. If you've been watching this year, you surely noticed that his command has been awful, which is why he's been getting shelled. In previous years, he had difficulty locating his offspeed stuff at times. This year, he's had difficulty getting his fastballs over. That said, he's still hitting the mid-90's routinely, so I don't see any evidence that the number of innings he's pitched is suddenly going to render him ineffective next season. Your argument that Bobby "can no longer pitch 60 games" is also pure conjecture. I'd like to see some evidence to support this statement ("kidney stones" doesn't count).

 

Your assumption that Thornton would fail as closer is just ridiculous. If Latroy Hawkins never pitched for the Cubs, people in Chicago would be much more willing to allow top setup men to close. He makes people forget that some of the best closers were once top setup men.

 

No, what's ridiculous is your straw man argument that I believe that Thornton "would fail" as a closer. I merely stated that his effectiveness as a closer is an unknown, which is true. For all I know, he may go on to be the next Billy Wagner. I correctly pointed out that he wouldn't be the first setup man to not have success as a closer. There's a reason why guys like Hawkins and Marmol haven't done well in that role: there's a lot more pressure involved and it takes a certain mental makeup to handle that pressure. I didn't even bother to mention that Thronton can't throw an offspeed pitch for strikes consistently, which doesn't help his case.

 

While making your dubious argument that Thornton's effectiveness in the closer role is a slam dunk, you've avoided addressing my point that moving Thornton from the setup role creates another hole in the bullpen. Who's our new setup man now? Linebrink? Pena?

Edited September 20, 2009 by WCSox

[WCSox]

This thread started with professional baseball writers, mainly Nightengale, who isn't a hack, and others who have their ears to the ground, suggesting Jenks is more likely to be traded than to remain with the team. That being the case, and knowing Kenny Williams isn't shy about pulling the trigger on a trade, scenarios were thrown out there. If you don't like the premise, that Jenks may be traded, fine. A solid case could be made for keeping Bobby. Yet the premise is that what to do if the sox are intent on trading him, what should they get back.

 

It's worth noting that the Sox have gone almost exclusively in-house for closers over the past 20 years. The one time that they traded for an established veteran (Koch) was a complete disaster. So, if Bobby is dealt, I seriously doubt that somebody like Valverde or Qualls will be signed to replace him. Thornton seems to be the most likely candidate.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Depending on what Bobby's raise looks like it probably makes the most sense to keep him. If Bobby gets about $8M or so then we'd have to spend that on another closer anyway and I'm not certain we'd receive in trade what would be equal to a comp pick. Now if the Sox could sign a closer to a 2 year/$16M deal without forfeiting a first rounder because of overall record, and then deal Bobby for other pieces, I'd do that. That would mean the Sox would essentially give up a 2nd rounder, gain cost certainty for the next 2 years out of the closer's spot, plus get back whatever Jenks would fetch. But, that series of events would be unlikely.

[greg775]

Pena and Linebrink won't be as bad as they have been this year. Both have solid track records.

 

Hope you are right. Linebrink is god awful and should not be back for any reason. Pena does not thrill me, but maybe it's possible he can get some people out next year.

[beck72]

It's worth noting that the Sox have gone almost exclusively in-house for closers over the past 20 years. The one time that they traded for an established veteran (Koch) was a complete disaster. So, if Bobby is dealt, I seriously doubt that somebody like Valverde or Qualls will be signed to replace him. Thornton seems to be the most likely candidate.

Exactly. Thornton seems to have Ozzie's confidence and would make sense to replace Jenks. What I was saying was signing a free agent or making a trade for set up, not for closer.

[beck72]

No team who has resorted to Mark Hendrickson has come away saying, "Hey! Looks like we improved the bullpen!"

That's because people have used him in the rotation. He has posted respectable numbers in the bullpen. The sox could use a LHP who can throw more than one inning for the bullpen.

[southsider2k5]

Exactly. Thornton seems to have Ozzie's confidence and would make sense to replace Jenks. What I was saying was signing a free agent or making a trade for set up, not for closer.

 

I would think that would be why Ozzie wouldn't use him as a closer. He likes being able to bring him in at anytime, instead of just the ninth inning with a lead.

[jenksycat]

I would think that would be why Ozzie wouldn't use him as a closer. He likes being able to bring him in at anytime, instead of just the ninth inning with a lead.

 

exactly why I do not want Thornton as our closer, much more valuable as a 7th-8th inning guy multiple times per weak than a closer who will go once over a 10 day span sometimes.

Edited September 21, 2009 by Jenksy Cat

[kitekrazy]

exactly why I do not want Thornton as our closer, much more valuable as a 7th-8th inning guy multiple times per weak than a closer who will go once over a 10 day span sometimes.

 

I agree. I'm am worried about Thornton for next season. As much as they had to use him this season, I'm surprised his arm hasn't fallen off.

 

[Balta1701]

I agree. I'm am worried about Thornton for next season. As much as they had to use him this season, I'm surprised his arm hasn't fallen off.

He pitched 67.1 innings last year and 67 so far this year. He had 74 appearances last year, 68 the year before, and has 65 so far this year.

[son of a rude]

Damn, i really want JJ Hardy now.

[southsider2k5]

exactly why I do not want Thornton as our closer, much more valuable as a 7th-8th inning guy multiple times per weak than a closer who will go once over a 10 day span sometimes.

 

Unless we do something big over the winter, I get the feeling that Tony Pena gets a shot at closing.

[LVSoxFan]

we waited a year too late to trade jenks... i said it before the season that we should have shopped him while we could still get a good chunk in return for him...now, he will be expensive, another year closer to FA, another year older, and another year worse for any team that is looking at him...There is a perfect team to shop him to no farther than 8 miles north...but i'm not sure they have the young players we'd be looking to get in return....

 

at any rate i hope KW has learned that the real way to build bullpens is internally and not by signing higher priced veterans like linebrink and dotel cuz with middle relievers you end up paying for a whole lot of mediocrity, when you can typically get a whole lot of mediocrity from guys from your system

 

Sadly, I agree--we waited a year too late.

 

 

 

[bigruss]

Unless we do something big over the winter, I get the feeling that Tony Pena gets a shot at closing.

I dont think he has shown enough to the coaching staff to really make them believe he can succeed in that role. He needs more time to show that he can be consistent, especially with his slider.

[WCSox]

Sadly, I agree--we waited a year too late.

 

This is a baseball organization, not an investment firm. Trading assets at the point of highest value comes in a distant second to putting a winning team on the field.

 

[southsider2k5]

This is a baseball organization, not an investment firm. Trading assets at the point of highest value comes in a distant second to putting a winning team on the field.

 

Great post.