Obama and missile defense

[lostfan]

I'm a little surprised this didn't generate more discussion last week so I'm bringing it up now. The amount of snake oil that has been accumulated/bought/sold over the past few years is staggering, there are so many non-facts floating around and the subject in general is just so dishonest and incoherent. To see my point just look at the official line being fed as a justification for it - to protect European countries from Iranian missiles. Then look at the primary criticisms - "it's a gift to Putin" or "Obama is leaving Israel out to dry." See how these don't add up? They have nothing to do with each other.

 

First off, the system hasn't been shown to work which is why the date projected by the Bush admin. is so far in the future (like 2018) - they hope that they can get it to work by then. It's been 20 years though.

 

Second, Iran does not have long-range missiles or ICBMs. Don't assume they do because someone on TV makes it sound like they do. They do not, and they aren't close to it either, don't buy the hype. Assuming they're working on the technology, it'll be at least 8-10 years by the time they have it ready to work, and if that happens it won't be a surprise because our intelligence will have known about it. These first 2 points actually make the whole discussion moot but for the sake of addressing everything I'll keep going.

 

Third, Iran DOES pose a threat to nearby countries (contrary to some assumptions, they do not get along that will with their Arab neighbors) with its short and medium-range missiles. Conversely, the US has actual existing technology to counter this, either on ships or through other measures Obama ordered the DoD to look into.

 

Fourth, as far as this being a "gift to Putin" since when is openly doing things soley for the purpose of irritating adversaries a valid basis on which to conduct foreign policy? This is not supposed to be about Russia, remember? Even if it was, and even if the systems actually worked, we were going to build 10 sites. Russia has SEVERAL THOUSAND ballistic missiles. There was no benefit whatsoever, except to give Russia a reason to upset the status quo. Building the sites (as opposed to not building them) would've been the real gift - Putin et. al. were probably wondering what the f*** Bush was thinking.

 

Think about Israel and Iran for more than 5 seconds and then you realize having missiles to intercept them from eastern Europe doesn't make any sense at all. Iran doesn't even need ICBMs to do this anyway, they already HAVE missiles that can hit Israel, and we ALREADY HAVE ways to intercept them (and so do the Israelis). Iran may be working on nuclear bombs, but right now they don't have any. If they did, and actually used them against Israel pre-emptively while ignoring the fact that Israel contains one of the holiest sites in Islam, it would be the end of their nation as they know it. Iran might have 3 or 4 nuclear warheads 5 years from now (total guess), Israel has a couple hundred along with 3 major allies with nukes and wearheads that can reach Iran. Iran's leaders might be offensive, authoritarian, and confrontational, but they aren't stupid.

 

So what it all boils down to is basically nothing - spending several billion dollars (when the United States is already out of cash) just to maintain the appearance of American global military dominance, even if there is no tangible benefit.

[Balta1701]

Your opinions are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

[DukeNukeEm]

Yea George Bush spent the summer of 2001 aiming for better missile defense. I think something happened in the fall to change that.

[lostfan]

Oh and speaking of the need for better missile defense I remember a few months back when Palin flipped a s*** about the Obama administration cutting back on the ABM sites in Alaska and making it sound like Obama offered Alaska back to Russia. They weren't removed like she seemed to think, there are still 30. Which is more than enough to do something about North Korean missiles, and irrelevant concerning Russia since, as I said, they have thousands of missiles.

[StrangeSox]

Missile defense systems are pretty much just socialism for military/ weapons companies. They don't work except in heavily scripted tests.

[bmags]

I think it didn't cause much discussion because John Bolton and John McCain aren't on this site. McCain's dream of entering another cold war with Russia is admirable, it produced many great clancy novels and military movies including making Top Gun have an ending, but not very smart.

[Balta1701]

Missile defense systems are pretty much just socialism for military/ weapons companies. They don't work except in heavily scripted tests.

I've gotten the impression that the Aegis system and the short range interceptors actually do a fairly good job.

[lostfan]

I've gotten the impression that the Aegis system and the short range interceptors actually do a fairly good job.

Yes against missiles that actually exist.

[mr_genius]

Yes against missiles that actually exist.

 

i have developed a system, which has saved or created, over 1,000,000 successful strikes against non-existent missiles.

 

true story

[Balta1701]

i have developed a system, which has saved or created, over 1,000,000 successful strikes against non-existent missiles.

 

true story

Here's $20 billion/year and the governorship of Alaska

[mr_genius]

Here's $20 billion/year and the governorship of Alaska

 

 

well thank you very much. all my hard work has finally paid off.

 

[DukeNukeEm]

Every cent spent on missile defense is a cent not spent on this.

[mr_genius]

Every cent spent on missile defense is a cent not spent on this.

 

i didn't know that. i kinda feel bad now.

[Balta1701]

i didn't know that. i kinda feel bad now.

You could build it yourself.

[mr_genius]

You could build it yourself.

 

f*** that, i'm not building anything for free, dude.

[Balta1701]

f*** that, i'm not building anything for free, dude.

But then you'd own it and you could rent it out to the government.

[kapkomet]

well thank you very much. all my hard work has finally paid off.

You betcha!

 

[lostfan]

f*** that, i'm not building anything for free, dude.

Where's that great American spirit of innovation and enterpreneurship? Don't be a quitter dude.

[southsider2k5]

Where's that great American spirit of innovation and enterpreneurship? Don't be a quitter dude.

 

That is totally the spirit of the 21st century.... Quit, and let the government pay for it!

[lostfan]

Obama offered Russia the carrot - and it looks like they'll go for it: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090923/ap_on_...r_wh/us_us_iran

 

I mean, really, that is apparently all it took. If you are Russia why would you have bothered otherwise?

[Balta1701]

Obama offered Russia the carrot - and it looks like they'll go for it: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090923/ap_on_...r_wh/us_us_iran

 

I mean, really, that is apparently all it took. If you are Russia why would you have bothered otherwise?

Russia is a rogue state who is run by a power-mad dictator. We gain nothing by negotiations. We should keep the system there to spite them. That'll show them.

[lostfan]

Russia is a rogue state who is run by a power-mad dictator. We gain nothing by negotiations. We should keep the system there to spite them. That'll show them.

Had John McCain been elected this would have been his official policy towards Russia (if what he said on the campaign trail is a safe assumption, and I'd say it is).

Edited September 24, 2009 by lostfan

[kapkomet]

Had John McCain been elected this would have been his official policy towards Russia.

Well then obviously you and Balta both are Glenn Beck worshipers.

 

[bmags]

To be fair, he looked into Putin's eyes and saw KGB.

[lostfan]

Well then obviously you and Balta both are Glenn Beck worshipers.

 

Well, McCain did actually say that. And I think he suggested kicking Russia out of the G8 too. He was totally talking out of his ass.