Rays to trade Upton or Crawford

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

My perfect 2010 lineup:

 

Crawford LF

Abreu DH

We're not going to have the money to bring in both of those guys. Maybe if we traded Paulie we could.

[Jordan4life_2007]

My perfect 2010 lineup:

 

Sign Abreu or Damon, trade for Cody Ross, send Paulie out, sell the farm for Adrian Gonzalez

 

L Getz 2B

R Beckham 3B

L Adrian Gonzalez 1B

R Quentin LF

L Bobby Abreu or Johnny Damon DH

R Ramirez SS

L Pierzynski C

R Rios CF

R Cody Ross RF

 

Nix UT

Kotsay 1B/OF

Backup C for minimum

Backup SS/CF for minimum (bring in some guys to compete with Lillibridge)

 

 

A nice L/R mix of speed, power, OBP, contact, and bat-handling skills, plus a much better defense 2009

 

 

You need to forget about Adrian Gonzalez. He's under the Padres control through 2011 (5.5 million club option that will obviously be picked up). He's one of the better bargains in baseball. It would take a Bedard like package for the Padres to even consider trading him.

Edited September 24, 2009 by Jordan4life

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

You need to forget about Adrian Gonzalez. He's under the Padres control through 2011 (5.5 million club option that will obviously be picked up). He's one of the better bargains in baseball. It would take a Bedard like package for the Padres to even consider trading him.

The Padres were shopping him at the deadline and since they're the Padres it's a given he'll be available. It's going to take even more than a Bedard package to get him, but if we had a chance, I'd sell the farm for him. Flowers, Viciedo, Hudson, Danks, and then I'd give them more. Gonzalez is elite.

[Jordan4life_2007]

The Padres were shopping him at the deadline and since they're the Padres it's a given he'll be available. It's going to take even more than a Bedard package to get him, but if we had a chance, I'd sell the farm for him. Flowers, Viciedo, Hudson, Danks, and then I'd give them more. Gonzalez is elite.

 

Umm, no.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Umm, no.

Great post.

 

No what? No, the Padres never shopped him? Yes they did. No he's not elite? Yes he is. No he's not worth that much talent? Yes, he is. No, we don't have enough to get him? Maybe not.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Great post.

 

No what? No, the Padres never shopped him? Yes they did. No he's not elite? Yes he is. No he's not worth that much talent? Yes, he is. No, we don't have enough to get him? Maybe not.

 

Did they shop him? Don't know and don't care. The Cardinals could shop Pujols and it wouldn't mean anything. Yes, he is elite. And he's ridiculously cheap (which is why there's no reason in the world to trade him unless you're getting some beyond earth shattering in return). No, he's not worth Flowers, Viciedo, Danks, Hudson and more. That's a ridiculous comment.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Did they shop him? Don't know and don't care. The Cardinals could shop Pujols and it wouldn't mean anything. Yes, he is elite. And he's ridiculously cheap (which is why there's no reason in the world to trade him unless you're getting some beyond earth shattering in return). No, he's not worth Flowers, Viciedo, Danks, Hudson and more. That's a ridiculous comment.

The Cardinals are a contending team so your comparison doesn't mean anything. The Padres have nothing to play for and are rebuilding, and they're not going to compete until Gonzalez is a free agent and they won't be able to afford him then. Therefore it makes total sense for them to trade him.

 

What are the odds that Flowers or Viciedo ever become as good as Gonzalez is now? Neither of those guys are expected to be major contributors until at least 2011. Hudson is not an ace and is probably a 3/4 or a setup man. Danks is always going to have problems with strikeouts and his lack of power doesn't exactly help his cause. Danks is a very good prospect but he's not some elite CF prospect by any means.

 

Adding 40HR and a .400 OBP to our lineup in 2010-2011 at least is worth all of that because we're not going to be able to afford this current rotation forever. 2010 is the opening of our window and MLB success always takes priority of what your prospects might become in 3-4 years, within reason of course. There should never be reservations about using minor league talent to acquire a player of AGonz's caliber. Whether or not Kenny has interest and would make a deal like that I don't know, but there will be Adrian Gonzalez rumors all offseason and this board will probably have a pretty long thread on the topic, so get used to it.

Edited September 24, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Jordan4life_2007]

The Cardinals are a contending team so your comparison doesn't mean anything. The Padres have nothing to play for and are rebuilding, and they're not going to compete until Gonzalez is a free agent and they won't be able to afford him then. Therefore it makes total sense for them to trade him.

 

It's not about being a contending team. Teams like to gauge what kinda package they can get for players all the time. Doesn't mean they're even close to being ready to make a trade. And you're right. They are rebuilding. And how does a team like the Padres rebuild? By getting proven ML players and premium minor league talent for whatever legitimate players they have. And for a player the caliber of Gonzalez at his current cost there would be a monumental price to pay. And I'm pretty sure there's not a team out there that would give the Padres what they would require.

 

What are the odds that Flowers or Viciedo ever become as good as Gonzalez is now? Neither of those guys are expected to be major contributors until at least 2011. Hudson is not an ace and is probably a 3/4 or a setup man. Danks is always going to have problems with strikeouts and his lack of power doesn't exactly help his cause. Danks is a very good prospect but he's not some elite CF prospect by any means.

 

I'm not going to sit here, as you have, and try to predict what will come of prospects. What's the point? You can read Baseball America from sun up to sun down, look at stats, go through scouting reports until you pass out, ect. Nobody will know a thing until they get out there on the field and show us. Still, you don't gut your system to that extent for any one player not named Pujols, Lincecum, or maybe Felix Hernandez.

 

Adding 40HR and a .400 OBP to our lineup in 2010-2011 at least is worth all of that because we're not going to be able to afford this current rotation forever. 2010 is the opening of our window and MLB success always takes priority of what your prospects might become in 3-4 years, within reason of course. There should never be reservations about using minor league talent to acquire a player of AGonz's caliber. Whether or not Kenny has interest and would make a deal like that I don't know, but there will be Adrian Gonzalez rumors all offseason and this board will probably have a pretty long thread on the topic, so get used to it.

 

I don't follow you here. Adding 40 HR and .400 OBP to our lineup for 2010-2011 is worth all that because we won't be able to afford this rotation forever? All 4 of our starters are either under contract or under control for the next 2-4 years. What does Gonzalez have to do with our pitching? And you contradict yourself because you say you'd have no problem giving up our #1 SP prospect. Which is not something you want to do if, as you say, we won't be able to afford this rotation forever. And yes, I have no problem trading minor league talent for proven ML talent. But like with anything in life, there's a line. There's no way even Kenny would give that much up for one guy. And it probably wouldn't be enough anyway.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

It's not about being a contending team. Teams like to gauge what kinda package they can get for players all the time. Doesn't mean they're even close to being ready to make a trade. And you're right. They are rebuilding. And how does a team like the Padres rebuild? By getting proven ML players and premium minor league talent for whatever legitimate players they have. And for a player the caliber of Gonzalez at his current cost there would be a monumental price to pay. And I'm pretty sure there's not a team out there that would give the Padres what they would require.

 

I don't know if you understand how a rebuilding process works. The LAST thing teams are supposed to do is acquire MLB veterans that bump up the payroll. Full rebuilds are done though prospects and reclamation projects. The Padres are not going to spend a bunch of money on veterans, that doesn't make any sense. Their payroll should be around $50M or less for the next couple of years.

 

Yes, the price for Adrian would be monumental which is exactly why they will trade him. The Padres are building for 2012 and Adrian is signed through 2011. It makes a lot more sense for them to deal Adrian over the offseason and bring in prospects who can join the team in 2010 and grow alongside the rest of their core towards playoff contention in 2012.

 

not going to sit here, as you have, and try to predict what will come of prospects. What's the point? You can read Baseball America from sun up to sun down, look at stats, go through scouting reports until you pass out, ect. Nobody will know a thing until they get out there on the field and show us. Still, you don't gut your system to that extent for any one player not named Pujols, Lincecum, or maybe Felix Hernandez.

 

First, there's a difference between the Sox gutting their system and a team like the Rays gutting their system. All systems are not equal. Our system has gotten a lot weaker over the past few months with Beckham, Getz, Richard, Allen, Poreda, and DCarter no longer in it. Secondly, Adrian Gonzalez is elite just like the other players you have mentioned. Pujols may be better, but there's no hitter in the game better than Pujols anyway. Gonzalez is one of the premier middle-of-the-order hitters in baseball, and he has just gotten better and better over the last few seasons. He should hit out 40 this year while playing half his games at PetCo, and meanwhile he has walked 107 times vs. only 102 K's. His BB rate keeps going up while his K rate keeps going down and he has massive power from the left side. Put that guy in our lineup between a healthy CQ and a Beckham who is gaining strength and you're talking about 90+ HR from the 3-4-5 hitters.

 

I don't follow you here. Adding 40 HR and .400 OBP to our lineup for 2010-2011 is worth all that because we won't be able to afford this rotation forever? All 4 of our starters are either under contract or under control for the next 2-4 years. What does Gonzalez have to do with our pitching? And you contradict yourself because you say you'd have no problem giving up our #1 SP prospect. Which is not something you want to do if, as you say, we won't be able to afford this rotation forever. And yes, I have no problem trading minor league talent for proven ML talent. But like with anything in life, there's a line. There's no way even Kenny would give that much up for one guy. And it probably wouldn't be enough anyway.

Let's use some logic here. Peavy's contract escalates. Buehrle makes $14M per. Floyd's deal goes up and Danks could get as much as $7-9M in his second year of arb. Just because these guys are under team control *does not* mean that the Sox will be able to afford them all while they are under team control. Therefore it makes sense to try to win now while they are here, and adding a bat like Gonzalez would help our chances immensely. And aside from that, winning now gives us the best chance of keeping our rotation together, because if we make a run in the playoffs for the next couple of years then the Sox will sell more season tickets which means a higher payroll.

 

How did I contradict myself? Hudson may be our top SP prospect, but he is *not* a #1 SP prospect. There is a difference here. Hudson may be a very nice prospect but he's not Phil Hughes, and your #1 SP prospect does not have to have the ceiling of a #1 starter. He's a #3 starting prospect and we should have no problem dealing him for a proven player who is already better than anything Hudson will likely become.

 

And what do you mean there is no way Kenny would give up that much for someone? Kenny offered the farm for Miguel Cabrera but the Marlins took Detroit's offer. Kenny offered a s***load for Freddy Garcia when Freddy was in Seattle. Kenny gave up a boatload for Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett. Kenny has given up a lot of talent for lesser players than Adrian Gonzalez and he went all out trying to get another elite guy in Cabrera. If there is one GM in the game who isn't afraid to sell the farm it is Kenny Williams. Notice my username.

[kitekrazy]

The only thing the Sox have to offer is money in free agency. They rarely do that but who knows. They really don't have much to trade.

[Chicago White Sox]

And what do you mean there is no way Kenny would give up that much for someone? Kenny offered the farm for Miguel Cabrera but the Marlins took Detroit's offer. Kenny offered a s***load for Freddy Garcia when Freddy was in Seattle. Kenny gave up a boatload for Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett. Kenny has given up a lot of talent for lesser players than Adrian Gonzalez and he went all out trying to get another elite guy in Cabrera. If there is one GM in the game who isn't afraid to sell the farm it is Kenny Williams. Notice my username.

First off, the farm system was much, much weaker when he was pursuing Cabrera. Second, KW gave up Rocky Biddle, Jeff Liefer and El Duque for Bartolo Colon. I would not call that a "boatload" of talent. Finally, who did he give up for Everett that was of so much value?

 

KW has traded lots of s***ty minor leaguers in his time because that's all we had. Now, we finally have some nice prospects in our system. Trading the farm for one impact player would be completely irresponsible. I just can't comprehend giving up all the cost certainty that these young players offer. I love Adrian Gonzalez as much as the next guy, but he is not worth our top four prospects. Not when we are in the situation we are in.

[knightni]

Would you trade Jenks, Retherford and Hudson for Crawford?

 

Would Tampa accept it?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

First off, the farm system was much, much weaker when he was pursuing Cabrera. Second, KW gave up Rocky Biddle, Jeff Liefer and El Duque for Bartolo Colon. I would not call that a "boatload" of talent. Finally, who did he give up for Everett that was of so much value?

 

KW has traded lots of s***ty minor leaguers in his time because that's all we had. Now, we finally have some nice prospects in our system. Trading the farm for one impact player would be completely irresponsible. I just can't comprehend giving up all the cost certainty that these young players offer. I love Adrian Gonzalez as much as the next guy, but he is not worth our top four prospects. Not when we are in the situation we are in.

You're viewing all this in hindsight. In the Colon deal, Montreal was forced to trade Colon because of salary concerns, yet the Sox gave up enough to actually get cash back in the deal. The Everett deal sent away 3 good prospects at time, including Anthony Webster who had star potential and Frank Francisco who has been a very good reliever in Texas. Saying the Sox didn't give up anything but "s***ty minor leaguers" because the players didn't turn out is nothing but stupidity. Kenny routinely gets criticized for giving up too much in his deals and they only look like steals later because the odds of most prospects in general turning out to be above-average players or better are very low.

 

And LOL at you for saying how just NOW we have nice prospects in our system but haven't before. That's nothing but ignorance with regards to previous prospects we've had in our system and blind faith in our current group. People thought Jeremy Reed COULDN'T fail and he was ranked as a top-10 prospect in the game at one point. Borchard could have been a megastar. Corwin Malone, Kris Honel, etc. etc. were very big prospects. Jon Rauch and Danny Wright ranked among the best pitching prospects in the game, FAAAAAR higher than you'll ever see Hudson ranked. Flowers is a great prospect, but we also had Mark Johnson and Miguel Olivo who were great catching prospects too, and in the Garcia deal we got back Ben Davis as a reclamation project whose status as one point would have been worth 3 Tyler Flowers. And Jordan Danks is a good prospect too, but even Brian Anderson was a better prospect, so was Chris Young, so was Aaron Rowand, etc.

 

If Kenny cleaned out our farm system right now and got an elite bat to stick in the middle of the lineup, the chances are we'd miss no more than one player sent out. I love the job the Sox have done with their farm the last couple of years but my god, very few of these guys are going to turn out no matter how great they look now, because hitting MLB pitching is a very, very, very hard thing to do, and if you don't hit for a couple months when you get the chance, and if you happen to play for a contending team while struggling, then you may never get another extended opportunity to play in the majors until you've already been passed up by some other prospect.

 

Winning teams are not supposed to pass up opportunities for bats like Adrian Gonzalez because of a few Hudson, Danks, and Flowers-type players. Viciedo is the only guy on the farm I'd hate to part with in such a scenario, but for a bat like that you'd just have to. Gonzalez will make about $10M combined over the next two years and deliver production that over the same span would be worth at least $40M on the open market. What we would be giving up is ***not anywhere near*** $30M dollars worth of prospects, yet that is the type of improvement we'd be making to our MLB team. A guy like that would allow for other additions to be made around him because he's so cheap, and as a result, we could add probably 10+ wins onto whatever we'll have next season without him. Anyone who says that Adrian Gonzalez, on talent and salary alone for the next two years, and with Type A status also a near certainty, is not worth our farm is f***ing idiotic.

 

Adrian would be a pipe dream for me because I don't think we'll be able to offer what the Red Sox and Yankees are going to offer. But if for some reason we have enough to entice San Diego, who will shop him over the offseason just as heavily as they did Peavy, then by all means I would be in favor of that deal. We have an awesome foundation for an awesome club in 2010 and beyond and there's no way in hell I'd pass up a bat like that because I was worried about how good the 2012 team would be.

Edited September 26, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[GreatScott82]

Would you trade Jenks, Retherford and Hudson for Crawford?

 

Would Tampa accept it?

We are going for it all in 2010 so yes i would accept that. I'm not so sure the Rays would accept that deal though. The Rays are in a position to get an aweful lot in return for Crawford this winter.

[southsider2k5]

Would you trade Jenks, Retherford and Hudson for Crawford?

 

Would Tampa accept it?

 

I think I would do it, because I would be getting the best player in the deal.

[joeynach]

Maybe we can trade for Michael Wuertz instead.

 

I would be down for that...especially if I can swap Pena for Wuertz.

[son of a rude]

Mark my words, Pena will have a comeback year. I'll put some weird ass s*** in my signature if he doesn't. Somebody can decide what I put there if he doesn't.

[bighurt574]

Mark my words, Pena will have a comeback year. I'll put some weird ass s*** in my signature if he doesn't. Somebody can decide what I put there if he doesn't.

 

You already have weird ass s*** in your signature.

[bigruss]

You already have weird ass s*** in your signature.

Theyre illusions!

[Balta1701]

Would you trade Jenks, Retherford and Hudson for Crawford?

 

Would Tampa accept it?

I wouldn't do it, solely because of the single year remaining on Crawford's deal. Any pitcher in our system other than Hudson and I say yes.

 

Tampa might, depending on their salary constraints.

[WCSox]

I wouldn't trade Hudson. But if they want a catcher, I'd deal Flowers, Jenks, and another minor league pitcher for Crawford, contingent upon a contract extension for the latter.

 

Edited September 28, 2009 by WCSox

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I wouldn't deal any of those guys for Crawford. He's a great player and is certainly worth top talent, but I don't see Crawford as a guy who would put us over the top at all. He'd help us on defense, but we could find other, cheaper options to do that. He would add a lot of speed and contact, but I think we've already got enough of that right now.

 

We don't need 50SB to win the division, and if we want SB, Rios and Getz in a good year under Ozzie can each take 30+. Alexei could take a few too if he improves his baserunning, plus Nix can steal a few, same with Beckham if the situations are right, etc. The biggest asset speed gives you is the ability to score from second on a single or from first on a double, and we've got guys that can do that now.

 

I think if anything we need another big bat in the middle of the lineup so I'd go after one of those, preferably a lefty. As soon as the WS is over, if I were Kenny I'd call the Padres and offer the farm for Adrian Gonzalez. If the Padres say we don't have enough, then I immediately prepare offers for both Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui as DH's. I'd prefer Abreu, but if Matsui comes cheaper or on a lighter commitment in terms of years, then I go with Matsui. Johnny Damon would be a nice fit also but he's a Borass client. So are legit #4 hitters Prince and Holliday, so they're out of the question too.

[WCSox]

I wouldn't deal any of those guys for Crawford. He's a great player and is certainly worth top talent, but I don't see Crawford as a guy who would put us over the top at all. He'd help us on defense, but we could find other, cheaper options to do that. He would add a lot of speed and contact, but I think we've already got enough of that right now.

 

We don't need 50SB to win the division, and if we want SB, Rios and Getz in a good year under Ozzie can each take 30+. Alexei could take a few too if he improves his baserunning, plus Nix can steal a few, same with Beckham if the situations are right, etc. The biggest asset speed gives you is the ability to score from second on a single or from first on a double, and we've got guys that can do that now.

 

I disagree. The Sox have lacked speed for a while, and have gone with hit-or-miss sluggers over high-OBP contact hitters for far too long. They're also in desperate need of a .350+ OBP leadoff hitter and a better defensive outfield. Crawford addresses both needs and steals 50+ bases per year, to boot. Rios and Alexei are never going to get on base enough to lead off and Getz has yet to show that ability either. IF Kenny could get Crawford to sign a three-year extension as part of a trade not involving Hudson, he should pull the trigger.

 

The problem with guys like Abreu and Matsui (and Thome) is that you're getting these on the down-slopes of their careers. Abreu obviously still has some left in the tank, but his OPS+ has fallen over the past five years and is currently at a "meh" 113. Crawford, on the other hand, is in the prime of his career and will do a lot more for the Sox over the next 3-4 years than somebody like Abreu.

Edited September 28, 2009 by WCSox

[witesoxfan]

Hudson should be damn near completely untouchable right now.

[son of a rude]

Hudson should be damn near completely untouchable right now.

The only untouchable player on any of Reinsdorf's teams wore the number 23.