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KW's plan on the offseason


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QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Sep 23, 2009 -> 08:57 PM)
Look at the real numbers. Error's is a flawed statistic, becasue it doesn't account for the range of the fielder, or the effort it took for said fielder to get to the point of making a play on the ball. Nix has tremendous range, and has saved a tremendous amounts of run for a team that suffered for defense. I'll grant that he's prone to making some poor choices in the field, but more often then not, he get's the job done in an extraordinary fashion.

 

Bullcrap. Nix has been nothing short of a butcher in the middle infield this year, yet you consistently hold his nuts and make excuses for him.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing him off yet. I see that he has talent. But, like Alexei, it doesn't mean much if he consistently botches routine plays. If Nix expects to be the starting 2B next year, he needs to either cut down on the errors or start hitting the ball like Jose Valentin. A guy with great range who can't hit and consistently gives the opponent extra outs isn't worth much on a major league roster.

 

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QUOTE (WCSox @ Sep 23, 2009 -> 10:49 PM)
I realize that Nix is defensively talented and versatile, but it's difficult to skate by on potential at his age when he's a veritable error machine on the field.

 

Ya he doesn't have much time left and I personally don't believe he'll fulfill it. Getz is growing on me more and more though. Ask me two years ago (or even last year) on who I would have manning 2B based on what I know about those two I wouldn't hesitate. Now, I have to think Getz is more of what this team needs, and probably wants to get away from.

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Bullcrap. Nix has been nothing short of a butcher in the middle infield this year, yet you consistently hold his nuts and make excuses for him.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing him off yet. I see that he has talent. But, like Alexei, it doesn't mean much if he consistently botches routine plays. If Nix expects to be the starting 2B next year, he needs to either cut down on the errors or start hitting the ball like Jose Valentin. A guy with great range who can't hit and consistently gives the opponent extra outs isn't worth much on a major league roster.

You really think Getz has been much better? Nix has been constantly switched around the infield and stuck in the outfield occasionally. It can't be that easy to stay consistent when that happens. Factoring errors in, he has still saved more runs than Getz at 2nd with a lot less time there.

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QUOTE (WCSox @ Sep 24, 2009 -> 12:08 AM)
Bullcrap. Nix has been nothing short of a butcher in the middle infield this year, yet you consistently hold his nuts and make excuses for him.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing him off yet. I see that he has talent. But, like Alexei, it doesn't mean much if he consistently botches routine plays. If Nix expects to be the starting 2B next year, he needs to either cut down on the errors or start hitting the ball like Jose Valentin. A guy with great range who can't hit and consistently gives the opponent extra outs isn't worth much on a major league roster.

Wow, you're all sorts of wrong. Nix has been fantastic all year. He's been the best defender on our team ALL YEAR. I might make excuses for him, but it's becasue the numbers back me up. He's a lot better then Getz and the margin is so signifcant that it makes Getz look like at amateur. The fact is: Nix was touted in the minor leagues as one of the best defenders that anyone had seen in years, his play this year has not only given flashes of that potential, but has produced great results for the team. Not to mention he's on pace to hit 30 homeruns, and knows how to work an AB.

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QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Sep 23, 2009 -> 09:14 PM)
Wow, you're all sorts of wrong. Nix has been fantastic all year. He's been the best defender on our team ALL YEAR.

 

Anybody who's actually watched Nix play SS or 2B this year can clearly see that he's been an error-machine and hasn't played plus-defense. Same goes or Alexei. Range and raw talent don't necessarily equal results.

 

I might make excuses for him, but it's becasue the numbers back me up.

 

Too bad that his play on the field doesn't.

 

Not to mention he's on pace to hit 30 homeruns

 

He's also sporting a mediocre .757 OPS. How many homers was Josh Fields on pace to hit in 2007?

 

He's a lot better then Getz and the margin is so signifcant that it makes Getz look like at amateur.

 

I love how you bring Getz into the conversation and trash him, automatically assuming that I'm pining for Getz to take Nix's spot. And that would be bad, bad, bad, since you're so emotionally-invested in Nix. The truth is that I don't see either one making a case for himself right now.

Edited by WCSox
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QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Sep 23, 2009 -> 07:27 PM)
OMG KW didnt reveal his plan on twitter and made some nonsensical remark, woe is me.

 

Personally Im fine with this team if they make 0 additions.

Please share your 25 man roster for 2010 then. I don't see how we could possibly have a strong enough offense and a deep enough pen without adding some talent.

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QUOTE (WCSox @ Sep 24, 2009 -> 12:21 AM)
Anybody who's actually watched Nix play SS or 2B this year can clearly see that he's been an error-machine and hasn't played plus-defense. Same goes or Alexei. Range and raw talent don't necessarily equal results.

Too bad that his play on the field doesn't.

Are you being intentionally dim here, or are you just oblivious to what Nix has been doing all year? According to all the advances metrics Nix has been worth 1.3 wins for the team this year. He is 2.9 runs above average defensively, and .2 runs above average offensively. By almost every account, but your “eye test” Jayson Nix is a very good player.

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QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Sep 23, 2009 -> 09:28 PM)
Are you being intentionally dim here, or are you just oblivious to what Nix has been doing all year?

 

If you'd remove your nose from Nix's jockstrap and watch the games, you might notice that he hasn't been anything close to an above-average defender at 2B or SS. I see the range and a lot of talent, but I haven't seen consistent, competent execution yet.

 

According to all the advances metrics Nix has been worth 1.3 wins for the team this year. He is 2.9 runs above average defensively, and .2 runs above average offensively. By almost every account, but your “eye test” Jayson Nix is a very good player.

 

Yeah, and according to UZR and Range Runs Against Average, Alexei is supposedly better at SS this year than he was at 2B last year (UZR of +3.6 vs. -8.3, respectively). Anybody who bothered to watch the games would correctly conclude that Alexei was solid at 2B last year and blows at SS this year. Defensive metrics are dubious at best, and vary from source to source, depending on how they're defined. For example, BP gives Getz a higher RAA at 2B than Nix this year (6 vs. 2). The RAA based on UZR at Fangraphs gives the opposite conclusion.

 

Edited by WCSox
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QUOTE (tommy @ Sep 23, 2009 -> 11:28 PM)
Haven't we learned that Kenny usually says one thing and does completely the opposite? Or does he?

 

No doubt. I'm personally reading between the lines of his Jenks quote actually. I think it's obvious.

 

"I know who has quit and who hasn't quit."

 

He said that a couple of times now. Should be an interesting offseason for us.

Edited by SoxAce
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QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Sep 24, 2009 -> 12:28 AM)
Are you being intentionally dim here, or are you just oblivious to what Nix has been doing all year? According to all the advances metrics Nix has been worth 1.3 wins for the team this year. He is 2.9 runs above average defensively, and .2 runs above average offensively. By almost every account, but your “eye test” Jayson Nix is a very good player.

 

Committing errors? He has 13 errors in roughly 80 games in the IF this year. That's not good. Yes, he's made some great plays and shown some plus plus range, and I'm not even saying I don't want him back next year, but let's not pretend he hasn't made way too many errors for someone who is supposed to be a "gloved god" in the infield.

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QUOTE (SoxAce @ Sep 23, 2009 -> 11:09 PM)
Ya he doesn't have much time left and I personally don't believe he'll fulfill it. Getz is growing on me more and more though. Ask me two years ago (or even last year) on who I would have manning 2B based on what I know about those two I wouldn't hesitate. Now, I have to think Getz is more of what this team needs, and probably wants to get away from.

 

This might be the most sane post of this thread. Am I the only one who thinks the Getz/Nix platoon has been one of Ozzie's best moves of the year? I'd like to see it going forward as well.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 24, 2009 -> 09:07 AM)
This might be the most sane post of this thread. Am I the only one who thinks the Getz/Nix platoon has been one of Ozzie's best moves of the year? I'd like to see it going forward as well.

 

As of now, I'd agree. I fully believe both players will get better, and they are the kind of players we need in the lineup. It continues to amaze me that people complain that we don't get players like the Twins, then when we do they get jumped all over. Neither player is a star, but IMO they have had pretty respectable rookie years. Not every team can have nine 20 HR all stars like a couple AL East teams. Finding players like them can be key.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 24, 2009 -> 11:07 PM)
This might be the most sane post of this thread. Am I the only one who thinks the Getz/Nix platoon has been one of Ozzie's best moves of the year? I'd like to see it going forward as well.

No I think that'd be a good option as well, especially considering how much both players will make next season.

 

I'd like to possibly go after Nick Johnson in the off-season as well. I'd love to add his OBP to the lineup, and his power numbers would improve if anything hitting at the Cell.

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QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Sep 24, 2009 -> 10:08 AM)
I like the platoon in theory. I just think Getz would have more use for this team playing all around the field.

 

If Getz is such a bad defender at second, what the heck makes you think he would be better at the tougher positions. Almost by definition if Nix is so far superior in range and arm strength, that should mean he would be more valuable at the other positions.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 24, 2009 -> 11:11 AM)
If Getz is such a bad defender at second, what the heck makes you think he would be better at the tougher positions. Almost by definition if Nix is so far superior in range and arm strength, that should mean he would be more valuable at the other positions.

Nixs’ inherent value lies in his defense at 2nd. He’s looked serviceable at 3rd, and shaky at 2nd, which leads me to think his value lies in playing 2nd on an everyday basis. I also think Getz is a slightly better fielder then the guy we’re seeing this year, not on the Nix plane, but more than serviceable just the same. In the minors, Getz played nearly every position, and played them well. He has a skillset that serves a very good utility player.

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At the very least, I think that Nix's versatility (2B, SS, 3B) makes him the leading candidate to be our infield platoon guy next year. He needs to cut down on the errors, but the physical talent in clearly there. I don't see Getz being as effective in this role.

 

My guess is that Nix starts out as our utility guy in April and Getz is our starting 2B, with Nix getting more playing time than the average utility player. If Getz moves his OBP up closer to .350, he's our new leadoff hitter and Nix takes a diminished role. If Getz's OBP continues to hang in the .330 range, he hits 9th and Nix continues to get a lot of at-bats. If Getz slumps or gets hurt again, Nix is our starting 2B and hits in the lower 3rd of the lineup.

 

My feeling is that Ozzie and Kenny want to see if Getz can become the leadoff hitter than this team needs. His skill set is well-suited for the role (good contact hitter, great base-runner, very high stolen base %, left-handed bat), EXCEPT for the fact that he needs to take a lot more walks. If Getz can't learn to take more walks, he's a #9 hitter and arguably more valuable off the bench. If Getz can't secure the leadoff spot, I think that Nix's power and defensive versatility eventually secure him the starting 2B spot.

Edited by WCSox
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