Dotel Gone At End of Season?!

[elrockinMT]

Chicago Sun-Times article today says Dootell approached the Sox on an extension and was told it wasn't in their plans. He wil be exploring free agency. Was he one of the quitters? I don't think he was mind you, but if this is a financial issue who else goes?

[G&T]

He's making $6M this season. They don't appear to want to pay Jenks $7M, so I can't imagine they would come close to that for any pen piece right now that isn't a dependable closer. Unfortunately Liney is still making $5M next year.

[Kyyle23]

although his numbers havent changed too much, I never felt comfortable or confident in him coming in this year, he just always seemed like he was hittable. I didnt feel that way too much last year until later in the year when he tired.

 

Im not too down about it, as we always say bullpens are really volatile from year to year and its time for some new blood

[WCSox]

although his numbers havent changed too much

 

His numbers has changed drastically since about July of last year. Dude was lights-out before that.

 

[klaus kinski]

No more "O D O D " in section 114

[Kyyle23]

His numbers has changed drastically since about July of last year. Dude was lights-out before that.

 

 

drastically? They are almost identical

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doteloc01.shtml

 

his ERA is actually lower this year(i have no idea how). He dropped off on his K rate a bit, but it was off the charts last year. His walk total increased which is probably why I dont trust him anymore, but there has been no drastic dropoff

[WCSox]

drastically? They are almost identical

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doteloc01.shtml

 

his ERA is actually lower this year(i have no idea how). He dropped off on his K rate a bit, but it was off the charts last year. His walk total increased which is probably why I dont trust him anymore, but there has been no drastic dropoff

 

Identical??? His WHIP increased from 1.21 to 1.46. WHIP is a much better metric for a reliever than ERA.

 

Look at his game-by-game numbers from last year. He went from borderline-dominant early on to a gas can in August/September.

 

[Kyyle23]

Identical??? His WHIP increased from 1.21 to 1.46. WHIP is a much better metric for a reliever than ERA.

 

Look at his game-by-game numbers from last year. He went from borderline-dominant early on to a gas can in August/September.

 

 

Im looking at everything, not only WHIP, ERA, IP, Runs Allowed, Walks, Homeruns allowed, strikeouts. The numbers are very similar.

And I agree, he has been a gas can, but somehow he has been able to maintain his numbers from last season. Maybe it is just his highs and lows evening out, i just must have missed the part this year where he hit a dominant stretch

[NorthSideSox72]

although his numbers havent changed too much, I never felt comfortable or confident in him coming in this year, he just always seemed like he was hittable. I didnt feel that way too much last year until later in the year when he tired.

 

Im not too down about it, as we always say bullpens are really volatile from year to year and its time for some new blood

He's erratic. When he is on, he is nasty. But you can tell from the first batter if he is on or not, and if he's not, he's very hittable.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

If they could bring Dotel back for about half of what he's making now I'd be for it. $2M-$3M on a one year deal with a mutual option containing a small buyout for 2011 would work for me. The Sox should be expected to miss Dotel when they have to go to Linebrink or Pena on every occasion they went to Dotel this year. Dotel has been our K guy and he's the one righty we have that we could bring in with RISP and less than 2 outs and still hope to get out of it without giving up a run. Linebrink and Pena can both get K's too but more than likely there will be an XBH in there between those K's. As far as the FA market goes, aside from closers who we wouldn't be able to afford, there's not a lot out there and maybe nobody better than Dotel.

 

Carrasco isn't really suited for a setup role IMO. Linebrink blows in the second half, but if he keep doing what he has done over the last few years, he should be good in the first half. I believe Hudson is going to thrive in a setup role sooner rather than later assuming we have no major injuries to our starting five, so without Dotel back, ideally Linebrink would do well for the first couple of months as the setup man while Hudson makes the adjustment to the pen. Then Hudson can take over the righty setup role when Linebrink starts to get lit up again and we can then send Liney to Charlotte.

 

Watch out for our young relievers this year too. We've got a lot of decent or better options who are very close and could debut in 2010. A couple of those guys could end up as big assets for us. And maybe that is part of the reason Kenny isn't planning on bringing Dotel back.

 

In my perfect world, our primary righties in the pen come midseason 2010 are Danny Hudson and Nathan Jones, with Pena as the third option, Carrasco as the LR, and Linebrink having been traded to a desperate team enamored with his usual first half success.

[WCSox]

He's erratic. When he is on, he is nasty. But you can tell from the first batter if he is on or not, and if he's not, he's very hittable.

 

And that's part of the problem with evaluating Dotel with "overall numbers." He was a stud in April and May of last year, and then fell apart shortly after the ASB. His overall stats from last year don't reflect that downward trend.

 

Since Dotel hasn't pitched at a sustained high level like that this season, I'm more than happy to part ways with him this winter. As somebody else suggested, it might be wise to offer him another contract at half his current price. But his current salary is WAY too high.

 

[JorgeFabregas]

Im looking at everything, not only WHIP, ERA, IP, Runs Allowed, Walks, Homeruns allowed, strikeouts. The numbers are very similar.

And I agree, he has been a gas can, but somehow he has been able to maintain his numbers from last season. Maybe it is just his highs and lows evening out, i just must have missed the part this year where he hit a dominant stretch

Take another look. His WHIP and K:BB took quite a hit this year.

[Kyyle23]

Take another look. His WHIP and K:BB took quite a hit this year.

 

 

Im pretty sure I said I looked at everything.

 

 

And yep, I did. I understand his WHIP has gone up, and I understand he has been pretty bad. He still was able to maintain some sort of normalcy with his career numbers. and I am in no way advocating that Dotel stays, and havent been from my first post.

 

I was just taken aback by how consistent his numbers are with what his career numbers are, thats all.

[iamshack]

I think we're going to miss Dotel quite a bit when he's gone. Teams always seem to take one or two guys for granted and then the next year, when they've got only two decent bullpen arms, they realize just how valuable those other two "mediocre" arms they let go were.

 

Bullpens are certainly volatile from season to season, but a bullpen is a cumulative creature. A good bullpen lives and breathes by having many solid working parts. You start taking one or two away, and the others start suffering drastically. You lose Dotel, and you start having to pitch others even more, which in turn, fatigues them and affects their performance. I think we have been toeing the line between using Thornton just enough and too much the last few years. You start leaning on him any more, and his performance starts declining. Suddenly you find yourself with no one who can perform. I seem to recall this happening with just about everyone in our pen with the exception of Bobby in 07', and that's because the closer usually gets shielded by this phenomenon because the damage is already done by the time you get to the 8th or 9th.

Edited September 25, 2009 by iamshack

[NorthSideSox72]

I think we're going to miss Dotel quite a bit when he's gone. Teams always seem to take one or two guys for granted and then the next year, when they've got only two decent bullpen arms, they realize just how valuable those other two "mediocre" arms they let go were.

 

Bullpens are certainly volatile from season to season, but a bullpen is a cumulative creature. A good bullpen lives and breathes by having many solid working parts. You start taking one or two away, and the others start suffering drastically. You lose Dotel, and you start having to pitch others even more, which in turn, fatigues them and affects their performance. I think we have been toeing the line between using Thornton just enough and too much the last few years. You start leaning on him any more, and his performance starts declining. Suddenly you find yourself with no one who can perform. I seem to recall this happening with just about everyone in our pen with the exception of Bobby in 07', and that's because the closer usually gets shielded by this phenomenon because the damage is already done by the time you get to the 8th or 9th.

I think a good discussion in this thread would be to look at the bullpen arms already in our system, or starters that may be used as relievers on the big club, and see what we can get from there (since as you said, bullpens are volatile anyway).

 

Here are some names to consider:

 

Jhonny Nunez (very solid minor league numbers, showed some promise up here)

Jon Link (disappointing AAA debut, but was solid in August/September: 1.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .178 AvgA, 12 K in 13 IP)

Carlos Torres (put up very good AAA numbers, showed some occasional promise with the Sox)

Dan Hudson (spectacular minor league season in 2009, future starter probably, maybe a pen arm for now)

Fernando Hernandez (not looked at as much of a prospect, but put up very good numbers in AA and AAA)

Ehren Wassermann (still has some potential, and has had major league success)

Clevelan Santeliz (Nails in AA incl a sub-1 ERA, but with some control issues, org likes him)

 

Of those, I really think that Nunez, Link, Torres and Hudson could be contributors. The other three I'm less sold on, but they might be worth a look.

 

[elrockinMT]

I think a good discussion in this thread would be to look at the bullpen arms already in our system, or starters that may be used as relievers on the big club, and see what we can get from there (since as you said, bullpens are volatile anyway).

 

Here are some names to consider:

 

Jhonny Nunez (very solid minor league numbers, showed some promise up here)

Jon Link (disappointing AAA debut, but was solid in August/September: 1.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .178 AvgA, 12 K in 13 IP)

Carlos Torres (put up very good AAA numbers, showed some occasional promise with the Sox)

Dan Hudson (spectacular minor league season in 2009, future starter probably, maybe a pen arm for now)

Fernando Hernandez (not looked at as much of a prospect, but put up very good numbers in AA and AAA)

Ehren Wassermann (still has some potential, and has had major league success)

Clevelan Santeliz (Nails in AA incl a sub-1 ERA, but with some control issues, org likes him)

 

Of those, I really think that Nunez, Link, Torres and Hudson could be contributors. The other three I'm less sold on, but they might be worth a look.

 

 

I think this is a good analysis and/or way to look at the issue. The bullpen is a concernb as it seems a team witjh a strong pen can make up for other weaknesses more than let's say strong hitting and poor pitching or defense. I think the statistic where a relief pitcher is judged by his ability to get the first batter out is really important. I don;t know how Dotel rates, but he does pretty fair overall and we might really miss that arm in the pen. Now if we can sign him at less money in these hard economic times we might be making a good move to keep him. At least keep or options open.

[joeynach]

although his numbers havent changed too much, I never felt comfortable or confident in him coming in this year, he just always seemed like he was hittable. I didnt feel that way too much last year until later in the year when he tired.

 

Im not too down about it, as we always say bullpens are really volatile from year to year and its time for some new blood

 

Yeah will I hope the new blood isn't Randy Williams or Tony Pena. We won in 2008 because of the lights outness of our pen's back end. For most of the season we had Jenks/Dote/Line/Thornton all throwing like studs. If we go into next year with just Thornton along with the agining Line and perhaps no Bobby then what. You better bring in someone who can automatically be relied on.

[southsider2k5]

I wonder how much money, and how long he was looking for...

[greg775]

I hope we try a new strategy with middle relief and go with a batch of young guys and see if one sticks.

We should not pay big bucks for middle relievers. They are middle relievers for a reason.

[SouthsideDon48]

I hope we try a new strategy with middle relief and go with a batch of young guys and see if one sticks.

We should not pay big bucks for middle relievers. They are middle relievers for a reason.

You act like the role of middle relievers is the same as mop-up duty.

 

Middle relievers are just as important as set-up men and closers, but if you have a bunch of young inexperienced guys then you might as well brace yourself for another shakey bullpen like 2007.

 

I rather pay for a reliever that can pitch scoreless innings instead of another "young arms" experiement like in 2007.

 

We're gonna miss Dotel when he's gone.

[scenario]

I'd add Kyle Bellamy to the mix too.

 

Yeah, he only pitched in A-ball this year, but he's the type of guy who could move very quickly through the organization.

 

In fact, he's my very early pick to surprise in spring training next year.

 

It wouldn't shock me if he stepped up and became a leading candidate to come north with the team.

Edited September 26, 2009 by scenario

[greg775]

We're gonna miss Dotel when he's gone.

 

Not me. Time to try somebody else. Like somebody said you can usually tell in the first batter if he's the good Dotel or bad Dotel. He's nothing special and I'd rather see some rookie implode than Dotel. Time for him to move on to Washington, home of former Sox relievers.

[witesoxfan]

Im pretty sure I said I looked at everything.

 

 

And yep, I did. I understand his WHIP has gone up, and I understand he has been pretty bad. He still was able to maintain some sort of normalcy with his career numbers. and I am in no way advocating that Dotel stays, and havent been from my first post.

 

I was just taken aback by how consistent his numbers are with what his career numbers are, thats all.

 

At what point do you stop looking at career numbers though? Octavio Dotel is going to be 36 next season. He is a hit or miss pitcher every time he comes into the game, and you can't count on a reliever to do that after the 7th inning. You have to either look at him as a setup man, or you have to say see ya.

 

And yes, quite a few of the numbers add up and look similar. But when your WHIP is 1.44, you should be doing nothing but 6th-7th inning duties.

 

Dotel was great in July, awful in August, and has been great in September. People tend to remember who blew what and who partook in it. Dotel took part in many of August's meltdown's, and that will contribute to how he will be remembered in Chicago. They won't remember the work he did during 2008, they won't remember that he was an overall good reliever. They will remember that, and it's honestly what I stick my head in too. Octavio Dotel, personally, seems a bit like Javy Vazquez...he can contribute when the game is literally not on the line, but come time for him to step up, he cowers and fails.

 

 

 

I hope we try a new strategy with middle relief and go with a batch of young guys and see if one sticks.

We should not pay big bucks for middle relievers. They are middle relievers for a reason.

 

Greg, the White Sox could acquire mid-1980s George Brett, and you'd be pissed every time he made an out. I am honestly surprised you haven't turned on DJ Carrasco yet.

 

I'd add Kyle Bellamy to the mix too.

 

Yeah, he only pitched in A-ball this year, but he's the type of guy who could move very quickly through the organization.

 

In fact, he's my very early pick to surprise in spring training next year.

 

It wouldn't shock me if he stepped up and became a leading candidate to come north with the team.

 

I say Nathan Jones is the sleeper. I don't see these guys, and merely go off of scouting reports, but I say he is a relief prospect to watch next year.

 

I do think Nunez makes the team out of spring though.

[WCSox]

At what point do you stop looking at career numbers though? Octavio Dotel is going to be 36 next season. He is a hit or miss pitcher every time he comes into the game, and you can't count on a reliever to do that after the 7th inning. You have to either look at him as a setup man, or you have to say see ya.

 

I wouldn't mind Dotel returning for one more year at half of his current price. But you're absolutely right that he shouldn't be pitching past the 7th, and I'm not sure that the Sox can afford a $3M middle reliever right now.

 

[knightni]

I hope that they offer him arbitration. The Sox could use draft picks. Worst case scenario, he accepts and they have a vet to replace Jenks with.