Dotel Gone At End of Season?!

[chisoxt]

I think a good discussion in this thread would be to look at the bullpen arms already in our system, or starters that may be used as relievers on the big club, and see what we can get from there (since as you said, bullpens are volatile anyway).

 

Here are some names to consider:

 

Jhonny Nunez (very solid minor league numbers, showed some promise up here)

Jon Link (disappointing AAA debut, but was solid in August/September: 1.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .178 AvgA, 12 K in 13 IP)

Carlos Torres (put up very good AAA numbers, showed some occasional promise with the Sox)

Dotel, however, has actually contributed to some extent). Conversely, the idea of using young arms from one's own farm system makes a lot of sense and in fact, is the model most other teams including big market team follow. By and large Boston and NY have relatively young bullpens (save Mariano Rivera). This is especially the case if you are trying to save payroll.

 

The big question will be whether or not these guys that you listed will get the job done. I think that we are going to find out one way or another.

Edited September 26, 2009 by chisoxt

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

At what point do you stop looking at career numbers though? Octavio Dotel is going to be 36 next season. He is a hit or miss pitcher every time he comes into the game, and you can't count on a reliever to do that after the 7th inning. You have to either look at him as a setup man, or you have to say see ya.

 

And yes, quite a few of the numbers add up and look similar. But when your WHIP is 1.44, you should be doing nothing but 6th-7th inning duties.

 

Dotel was great in July, awful in August, and has been great in September. People tend to remember who blew what and who partook in it. Dotel took part in many of August's meltdown's, and that will contribute to how he will be remembered in Chicago. They won't remember the work he did during 2008, they won't remember that he was an overall good reliever. They will remember that, and it's honestly what I stick my head in too. Octavio Dotel, personally, seems a bit like Javy Vazquez...he can contribute when the game is literally not on the line, but come time for him to step up, he cowers and fails.

 

Dotel has stepped up quite a bit during his tenure here, and his poor (by his standards) year in 2009 shouldn't in any way make it seem like he's another Javy at all. We had a lot more to play for last year than we did this year and overall he did very well. Relievers in general, especially non-closing ones, are just like that, they have big ups and downs all year.

 

For example, during Sept/Oct '08 Dotel pitched 8.1IP and gave up 2 HR, but he only gave up 4 hits total during that span with the other two hits being singles, and he posted a .143BAA, .583OPSA with a K/9 of 11.9 and a WHIP of 0.84. So overall he was very effective down the stretch when we needed him to be, but most people will probably only remember those two home runs and as a result they'll think he sucked.

 

Secondly, yes Dotel has struggled this year, and yes he is getting older, but he still has the stuff to get the job done in a big situation. He is our one mostly reliable RH strikeout guy and sometimes you end up in situations where you need a K a lot more than a flyout or a groundout, or you'd much rather have 2 K's and a walk than a couple of outs where decent contact is made. Without Dotel we really don't have that strikeout guy from the right side, and that will hurt because we need that from the right side since we can't always go to Thornton.

 

We do have both Clevelan Santeliz and Nathan Jones in the minors as RH high-K guys, but Cleveland is faaaar more erratic than Dotel and Nathan is still in A ball (although I could see him heading straight to Birmingham to start 2010). Pena could be our K guy but he has a lot more trouble locating within the zone than Dotel does, and it seems like most of Pena's sliders end up hanging over the middle of the plate about waist high. Hudson does have the control, but despite his high K totals in the minors I don't really see him as a K guy in the Majors at all, more of a groundball/popout guy. IMO no one else we have aside from Santeliz and Jones could be reasonably expected to produce a K/9 of 9 or above in the Majors.

Greg, the White Sox could acquire mid-1980s George Brett, and you'd be pissed every time he made an out. I am honestly surprised you haven't turned on DJ Carrasco yet.

 

I say Nathan Jones is the sleeper. I don't see these guys, and merely go off of scouting reports, but I say he is a relief prospect to watch next year.

 

I do think Nunez makes the team out of spring though.

Agree with all this stuff. Greg is a troll who talks just as bad about highly-talented players who aren't performing as he does about no-talents who aren't performing. By his posts it is hard to come away feeling like he can differentiate between the two types of players, and therefore it is hard to believe he understands what he is watching.

 

Also, if Jones is throwing good strikes in ST he is going to open a lot of eyes, and as we've seen over the years, when Kenny and Ozzie think a guy can help out the big league team they aren't afraid to call him up, no matter what level he is currently at or projected to start at. I also think Hudson makes the pen and becomes our setup man while Nunez is the immediate favorite for a 5th/6th inning role. This is assuming these guys all stay here and we don't bring in a veteran.

Edited September 26, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[WCSox]

Dotel has stepped up quite a bit during his tenure here, and his poor (by his standards) year in 2009 shouldn't in any way make it seem like he's another Javy at all. We had a lot more to play for last year than we did this year and overall he did very well. Relievers in general, especially non-closing ones, are just like that, they have big ups and downs all year.

 

Dotel was never the same after blowing out his elbow. He's had some decent seasons since (2005, 2007) and was good overall last year, but he's just too erratic to work in the closer or setup roles. And while his performance is more than good enough for a middle reliever, he's going to command a lot more than average and his age (turns 36 in January) may become problematic. If we were Yankees-rich, he'd be a nice guy to bring in during the 7th. But, alas, that isn't the case.

 

Edited September 26, 2009 by WCSox

[greg775]

Agree with all this stuff. Greg is a troll who talks just as bad about highly-talented players who aren't performing as he does about no-talents who aren't performing. By his posts it is hard to come away feeling like he can differentiate between the two types of players, and therefore it is hard to believe he understands what he is watching.

 

What is a troll. I love our team as much as the next person.

Uh did you hear me complain about Paulie last year? No. I don't complain unless I feel it is worth complaining about. Have I blasted Bobby? No.

I simply think Dotel is an AVERAGE at best pitcher, definitely not worth the money and I'd rather go in a different direction, using young arms instead of picking up Liney's and Dotel's.

I truly don't understand how some can get on Bobby and not Dotel.

Dotel has done nothing to warrant excitement from Sox fans. Don't you realize just because he's not a closer he gets way less grief than Bobby?

What the f*** is a troll?

[bobryansson]

I think we're going to miss Dotel quite a bit when he's gone. Teams always seem to take one or two guys for granted and then the next year, when they've got only two decent bullpen arms, they realize just how valuable those other two "mediocre" arms they let go were.

 

Bullpens are certainly volatile from season to season, but a bullpen is a cumulative creature. A good bullpen lives and breathes by having many solid working parts. You start taking one or two away, and the others start suffering drastically. You lose Dotel, and you start having to pitch others even more, which in turn, fatigues them and affects their performance. I think we have been toeing the line between using Thornton just enough and too much the last few years. You start leaning on him any more, and his performance starts declining. Suddenly you find yourself with no one who can perform. I seem to recall this happening with just about everyone in our pen with the exception of Bobby in 07', and that's because the closer usually gets shielded by this phenomenon because the damage is already done by the time you get to the 8th or 9th.

Very, very insightful. Still, he needs to make less $$$

[son of a rude]

What is a troll. I love our team as much as the next person.

Uh did you hear me complain about Paulie last year? No. I don't complain unless I feel it is worth complaining about. Have I blasted Bobby? No.

I simply think Dotel is an AVERAGE at best pitcher, definitely not worth the money and I'd rather go in a different direction, using young arms instead of picking up Liney's and Dotel's.

I truly don't understand how some can get on Bobby and not Dotel.

Dotel has done nothing to warrant excitement from Sox fans. Don't you realize just because he's not a closer he gets way less grief than Bobby?

What the f*** is a troll?

Somebody who stirs s*** up to get reactions out of people.

[elrockinMT]

 

Agree with all this stuff. Greg is a troll who talks just as bad about highly-talented players who aren't performing as he does about no-talents who aren't performing. By his posts it is hard to come away feeling like he can differentiate between the two types of players, and therefore it is hard to believe he understands what he is watching.

 

 

 

I don't know if Greg was amused by this comment or insulted, but I see no reason for this name calling

[greg775]

I wasn't insulted.

Some people can't handle a difference of opinion. Dick Allen had a great post yesterday in the game thread supporting my position that losing to acquire a better draft pick is not necessarily a smart thing to do. But nobody responded to Dick's post. It's easier to call me a troll.

I only post what I truly feel; not to "stir" people up.

[witesoxfan]

I wasn't insulted.

Some people can't handle a difference of opinion. Dick Allen had a great post yesterday in the game thread supporting my position that losing to acquire a better draft pick is not necessarily a smart thing to do. But nobody responded to Dick's post. It's easier to call me a troll.

I only post what I truly feel; not to "stir" people up.

 

I don't consider you a troll, but the incessant berating of the same players gets really old. That's about it.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Agree with all this stuff. Greg is a troll who talks just as bad about highly-talented players who aren't performing as he does about no-talents who aren't performing. By his posts it is hard to come away feeling like he can differentiate between the two types of players, and therefore it is hard to believe he understands what he is watching.

 

 

 

I don't know if Greg was amused by this comment or insulted, but I see no reason for this name calling

I'm the one who posted that, and I did it because I believe it was Greg who was dogging both Freddy Garcia (before he even made a start for us) as well as Rios, calling them both basically bums (and he may have used that word exactly) while ignoring the talent they both possess. From the moment we got Freddy back I argued at length about how if his fastball velocity returned (hitting 90 and above, not 95 like the old Freddy), his offspeed stuff would be good enough for him become the type of pitcher he was for us in 2006. And I've argued for Rios since well before we got him, even before he was claimed on waivers. I'm not psychic or anything so if both things happen it's only because I can watch them both play and see that they have talent. So when someone talks just as bad about those guys as he talks about other players like DeWayne Wise for example, it is hard for me to come away feeling like the commenter knows what he is talking about.

 

Maybe Greg isn't a troll, but if you're going to dog someone at least give actual baseball reasons for doing so. I dog Carlos Torres all the time for his lack of stuff, but that's my reason. I like his mentality but I don't see him as a Major League pitcher. Meanwhile, a guy like Rios has tons of ability and isn't some lost cause until he proves it. I just get sick of reading the same s*** about so-and-so being a terrible player who should be traded/cut/released/whatever because he isn't performing RIGHT NOW. That's not how you're supposed to run a baseball team, and if you're a fan of the game you should be able to differentiate to at least some respectable degree between talented players who aren't performing and hacks who aren't performing, and you should be able to cut those talented players some slack given the circumstances and at least hope for their success rather than shout "I told you so!" every single time they do something bad.

 

Kenny didn't go out and get Rios because Rios was lighting the world on fire. The only f***ing reason Kenny made that deal is because of the ability Rios has. Kenny probably thought Alex would be more productive than he's been immediately, but I doubt Kenny is all that surprised to see Alex struggling so heavily still. And even if Kenny had the ability to go back in time right now and NOT make the claim on Rios, I bet he still would make that claim in a heartbeat. Kenny is one of the best talent evaluators out there when it comes to a GM, and Rios is obviously a guy he wanted for some time, so just lay off it already and let things happen.

 

Oh, and the constant reminders about how we weren't going to win when EVERYONE ON THE f***ING SITE knew the odds were against us were just wonderful too. Some people like to enjoy the f***ing season while it lasts and hope for the best.

[ThunderBolt]

Dotel is something of an enigma, but he's a great relief pitcher. He tends to go through Marte-esque firstarter stages, but when push comes to show his K-rate is nearly always steller, and he can be counted on big spots. That being said he needs to be let go if his signing will affect our draft status.

[greg775]

Kenny didn't go out and get Rios because Rios was lighting the world on fire. The only f***ing reason Kenny made that deal is because of the ability Rios has. Kenny probably thought Alex would be more productive than he's been immediately, but I doubt Kenny is all that surprised to see Alex struggling so heavily still. And even if Kenny had the ability to go back in time right now and NOT make the claim on Rios, I bet he still would make that claim in a heartbeat. Kenny is one of the best talent evaluators out there when it comes to a GM, and Rios is obviously a guy he wanted for some time, so just lay off it already and let things happen.

 

Oh, and the constant reminders about how we weren't going to win when EVERYONE ON THE f***ING SITE knew the odds were against us were just wonderful too. Some people like to enjoy the f***ing season while it lasts and hope for the best.

 

Bolt, I can't believe you think Dotel is a "great relief pitcher."

 

As far as this post, you had a nice call on Freddy. I think he's been very good, excellent.

With the Rios thing and constant reminders we weren't going to win the division, most of my posts were in response to post praising Rios and response to those insisting we had a good chance. Why shouldn't I give my opinion? I enjoyed the season greatly until that road trip where suddenly the season was over.

You'll never convince me Rios wasn't acquired for what he can do NOW as well as the future. We were in it when we got him and he failed miserably to do anything positive. Why would I lay off already when he was making out after out and our season was going down the drain not all because of him, but he truly SUCKED.

I'm ready to give him a clean slate for next year and maybe he'll figure it out. I still don't think he's worth the money but we'll find out next year. At what he's making he should be one of our best players. I'm not going to dog him in April and May because at that point the season will just be starting to play itself out. His failure this year was in crunch time and he was supposed to give us a huge lift toward the postseason.

 

I simply couldn't see how many people bagged on Dye and not Rios? Why aren't you mad at those who day after day bashed Dye?

Face it, you just don't like my style of posting. Plenty of other people have stupid rants about players, especially the s*** written about Dye this year and Konerko last year.

Let's see people turn on AJ if he hits .200 the first half next year. If he does, I won't be one bagging on him cause of his track record HERE.

Rios showed nothing when we were in the race and got what he deserved. His track record was with another team.

Dye has a track record with our team and fans threw him under the bus big time.

 

Good call on Freddy, though. He has been a pleasant surprise. If he reports to ST in shape and not fat, I hope he earns a starting spot. And after seeing Torres pitch a few times I'm afraid you may be right about his stuff. He did impress that one start though.

Edited September 29, 2009 by greg775

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Bolt, I can't believe you think Dotel is a "great relief pitcher."

 

As far as this post, you had a nice call on Freddy. I think he's been very good, excellent.

With the Rios thing and constant reminders we weren't going to win the division, most of my posts were in response to post praising Rios and response to those insisting we had a good chance. Why shouldn't I give my opinion? I enjoyed the season greatly until that road trip where suddenly the season was over.

You'll never convince me Rios wasn't acquired for what he can do NOW as well as the future. We were in it when we got him and he failed miserably to do anything positive. Why would I lay off already when he was making out after out and our season was going down the drain not all because of him, but he truly SUCKED.

I'm ready to give him a clean slate for next year and maybe he'll figure it out. I still don't think he's worth the money but we'll find out next year. At what he's making he should be one of our best players. I'm not going to dog him in April and May because at that point the season will just be starting to play itself out. His failure this year was in crunch time and he was supposed to give us a huge lift toward the postseason.

 

I simply couldn't see how many people bagged on Dye and not Rios? Why aren't you mad at those who day after day bashed Dye?

Face it, you just don't like my style of posting. Plenty of other people have stupid rants about players, especially the s*** written about Dye this year and Konerko last year.

Let's see people turn on AJ if he hits .200 the first half next year. If he does, I won't be one bagging on him cause of his track record HERE.

Rios showed nothing when we were in the race and got what he deserved. His track record was with another team.

Dye has a track record with our team and fans threw him under the bus big time.

 

Good call on Freddy, though. He has been a pleasant surprise. If he reports to ST in shape and not fat, I hope he earns a starting spot. And after seeing Torres pitch a few times I'm afraid you may be right about his stuff. He did impress that one start though.

1. Okay, I went too far in calling you a troll. I apologize for that.

 

2. Unless we're pretty much mathematically eliminated, or unless we're a good distance back in a much better year for the division, you don't need to keep saying we're not going to win over and over and over again. Everyone knew it was going to take both a great run from the Sox plus bad baseball from both Minnesota and Detroit to win this thing, but as unlikely as it was, there was still reason to hope. You didn't have to be a Negative Nancy and repeat to others the same things they already knew. You're free to state your opinion and you're free to argue and everything else, but the constant, useless negativity really gets annoying.

 

3. I didn't make a good call on Garcia. I saw him pitch for us in 2006 and I watched him have success with limited fastball velocity. Anyone who saw him pitch that year should have known that, if he could get his velocity back into an acceptable range and get back some command on his breaking stuff, he would become effective again in the Major Leagues. It's like, I can say right now that if Scott Linebrink gets the ball down in the zone more and only goes high on occasion to set up his split, and if Tony Pena can gain enough control of his fastball to work off of that pitch instead of his slider, then both are going to be very effective relievers again. That doesn't mean it's going to happen anytime soon, but they still both have ability. I don't believe I ever predicted success for Freddy, I just pointed out that people shouldn't count Freddy out until they had at least seen what his velocity was like.

 

4. 2009 was not a main reason for Rios coming here. I shouldn't have to do any convincing beyond pointing to the Peavy deal, because when we got Peavy we figured he wouldn't have been able to help until at least early September anyway, and even then, we'd have had to prepare for a couple rough outings while he got into a rhythm again. And Rios also was having the worst season of his career, so why him if it's for 2009?

 

If Kenny wanted 2009-type moves he would have done things similar to what the Tigers did, bringing in soon-to-be free agents like Aubrey Huff and Jarrod Washburn. I'm sure he could have gotten Randy Winn for CF and some other starter like Garland or something for about nothing, but he didn't make those kinds of moves. Instead Kenny added two very large contracts to the payroll that extend out for several seasons, all the while knowing that there was a very real possibility he would get *little to no actual value* out of either player in 2009. No GM makes moves like this with 2009 as any kind of focus. Of course Kenny will tell the fans he made the moves to win now just as much as in the future, that's called paying lip service. Kenny is making his run in 2010 and that's when he'll be looking for Rios to become a key contributer.

 

5. The Dye situation is a *completely* different situation than Rios'. Dye is a veteran who was given a contract by the Sox to contribute right now. Dye is supposed to help anchor our lineup. Rios OTOH wouldn't have even come here if he hadn't been in a career-worst season, because not even JP Ricciardi is dumb enough to let a healthy, productive Alex Rios go for nothing. Rios also is just entering his prime now, unlike Dye who is in decline.

 

6. It's not that I don't like your style of posting. It's that don't like reading the same negative things over and over about how so-and-so is garbage, and about how no matter what happens we're not going to win, yadda yadda yadda. Rios is not garbage. He has some work to do to get back to the type of player he had been in previous years, but he is not garbage, and it would have been stupid to expect Rios to do for us in 2009 any better than he had been doing in Toronto, which offensively wasn't very good at all. Rios ended up doing worse for us than in Toronto, but that happens quite a bit with new additions, and it is nothing short of moronic to write a talent like Rios off because of a really bad second half in the worst season of his career.

 

[greg775]

Good post. You have good logical arguments and facts about players, so I'm a little more hopeful about Rios after reading that.

I still don't think I'm normally that negative, with the exception of most of the month of September. I probably should have let those who still had hope following that road trip have their fun, but I wasn't the only person posting that we were finished. I'd have to go back and check, but I don't think I'd call Freddy a bum, because I usually am extremely loyal to those Sox who helped us win it all.

 

Hopefully next year will be our year. If Liney and Pena do fix those things you suggested it certainly would help our bullpen.

Edited September 30, 2009 by greg775

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Good post. You have good logical arguments and facts about players, so I'm a little more hopeful about Rios after reading that.

I still don't think I'm normally that negative, with the exception of most of the month of September. I probably should have let those who still had hope following that road trip have their fun, but I wasn't the only person posting that we were finished. I'd have to go back and check, but I don't think I'd call Freddy a bum, because I usually am extremely loyal to those Sox who helped us win it all.

 

Hopefully next year will be our year. If Liney and Pena do fix those things you suggested it certainly would help our bullpen.

Okay, that's settled. Friends?

 

I hope Linebrink and Pena turn it around as well. I think Linebrink at least will have another productive half like has been the case for the last several years. If that happens I hope we're able to trade him, even if we get back nothing in the process and still have to eat about $1M or so of his 2011 contract.

 

I think we'll all have a lot more to be positive about in 2010.

[greg775]

I think we'll all have a lot more to be positive about in 2010.

 

I hope so. If all those starters are healthy going into the season, we certainly have a chance to have one of the best rotations around.

Should be interesting to see what tinkering KW does.