Vazquez and Swisher Redux

[ThunderBolt]

3.6 wins? Really? Assuming our awful blackhole in CF is around 0 WAR, assuming WAR is actually valid in predicting wins and isn't just a semi-reasonable statistical estimate, and assuming Swisher actually produced with us, we'd be either 78-78 or 79-77, 5 or 6 games back of Detroit, and 3 or 4 games behind Minnesota, with 6 games to play. You honestly think this constitutes being "back in the race?" Even if our centerfielders had produced a negative WAR value, we'd still likely need to vault over both Minnesota and Detroit to win the division, and that's just not likely. You're relying on an awful lot of "ifs".

Are you really going to argue that having a high OBP-player like Swish in the lineup wouldn't change our offensive output. Keep in mind that Swish isn't only going to drive in 85 Runs, but he's also going to set the table for all the other big bats in the lineup. As opposed to Wise who is going to K or ground out.

[Balta1701]

Are you really going to argue that having a high OBP-player like Swish in the lineup wouldn't change our offensive output. Keep in mind that Swish isn't only going to drive in 85 Runs, but he's also going to set the table for all the other big bats in the lineup. As opposed to Wise who is going to K or ground out.

Of course when you compare him to Wise he's going to improve our offense. That doesn't mean that he's even a good fit.

[ThunderBolt]

Of course when you compare him to Wise he's going to improve our offense. That doesn't mean that he's even a good fit.

I agree with the premise that the differences between Swish and Ozzie were irreconcilable. I will never agree, however, that Swish couldn't have found a home here given the chance. I just wish we could have gotten something for him. Honestly, swap Marquez for Ian Kennedy and I’m fine with that trade.

Edited September 29, 2009 by Thunderbolt

[Balta1701]

I agree with the premise that the differences between Swish and Ozzie were irreconcilable. I will never agree, however, that Swish couldn't have found a home here given the chance. I just wish we could have gotten something for him. Honestly, swap Marquez for Ian Kennedy and I’m fine with that trade.

We'd all have been fine with that but the Yankees would never do that.

[ThunderBolt]

We'd all have been fine with that but the Yankees would never do that.

Then we never should have made the trade with the Yankees. Equal returns or bust.

[Balta1701]

Then we never should have made the trade with the Yankees. Equal returns or bust.

After the season he had last year...with the contract he had, what we got was an equal return. He was just that bad last year.

[greg775]

I will never agree, however, that Swish couldn't have found a home here given the chance

 

A chance?

He was horses***. He was given plenty of chances as Oz wrote his name in the lineup all the time.

Players have to produce, especially in their first years with teams. He was simply horrific.

 

[almagest]

Are you really going to argue that having a high OBP-player like Swish in the lineup wouldn't change our offensive output. Keep in mind that Swish isn't only going to drive in 85 Runs, but he's also going to set the table for all the other big bats in the lineup. As opposed to Wise who is going to K or ground out.

Wise didn't play centerfield for us for most of the year. Sure, having Swisher would probably have made us better offensively, but I doubt it'd be enough. Swisher wouldn't have made Dye hit, or Buehrle pitch after his perfect game, or Linebrink stop sucking, or etc.

[southsider2k5]

Then we never should have made the trade with the Yankees. Equal returns or bust.

 

For a guy with the balloon contract he has, and the way he hit in 2008, we got an equal return just by not having to pay any money on his contract.

[elrockinMT]

Javy makes $11 million. That's all you need to know if you really think they still would have picked up Peavy.

 

 

How many times were we told that money is not the issue when deciding to pick up that winning piece or not? I am not saying money wasn't an issue or wouldn't have been mind you, but they might have gotten rid of someone else to make room in the budget

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Swisher freed up money to pay Dayan Viciedo. Dayan Viciedo is a much, much, much better prospect than anyone traded in the first deal, and Dayan Viciedo's trade value alone is worth much, much, much more than Nick Swisher. So, we won. PLEASE let this topic die.

Edited September 30, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[lostfan]

Swisher freed up money to pay Dayan Viciedo. Dayan Viciedo is a much, much, much better prospect than anyone traded in the first deal, and Dayan Viciedo's trade value alone is worth much, much, much more than Nick Swisher. So, we won. PLEASE let this topic die.

I feel like curb-stomping kittens yet I keep coming back for more.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I feel like curb-stomping kittens yet I keep coming back for more.

How could anyone possibly confuse cute, innocent, furry little kittens with Swisher defenders?!?! I mean, I'd rather clean a nasty wet kitten turd out from between the keys of my keyboard than type another long post addressing this topic.

 

Maybe you do need to stop viewing this thread.

[ThunderBolt]

Fangraphs has their say on the Swisher move. Comes down somewhat hard on KW for making the move, when all indicators pointed his year to be a statistical fluke. "It’s not very often that one can say this about a Yankees acquisition, but swindling Swisher from the White Sox last fall was a thrifty move. New York bought low on a quality player, parting only with a future 5th starter, a decent relief prospect and a reserve infielder with platoon issues and no defensive home.

 

Swish made just $5.3M this year, while providing $16.5M worth of value. He’s under contract for a total of $15.75M over the 2010-2011 seasons. Even if he regresses back to the three WAR range, he would give $27M worth of production over that time period.

 

If you’re keeping score at home, that would mean Swisher offers the Yankees about $22.5M worth of surplus value from 2009-2011 (what his production is worth on the free agent market based on the $4.5M/WAR standard, minus his actual salary). And, he also has that reasonable option for the 2012 season.

 

During an off-season in which the Yankees spent more than the gross domestic product of Tonga (no, seriously), the club also added Swisher for a song. This is a great example of why it’s vital to not just take a cursory glance at a player’s numbers and come to a definite conclusion about his talents. Fantasy owners who did their homework picked up an offensive cog without coughing up a high draft pick. " More At the Link. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php...hers-resurgence

[Dick Allen]

Fangraphs has their say on the Swisher move. Comes down somewhat hard on KW for making the move, when all indicators pointed his year to be a statistical fluke. "It’s not very often that one can say this about a Yankees acquisition, but swindling Swisher from the White Sox last fall was a thrifty move. New York bought low on a quality player, parting only with a future 5th starter, a decent relief prospect and a reserve infielder with platoon issues and no defensive home.

 

Swish made just $5.3M this year, while providing $16.5M worth of value. He’s under contract for a total of $15.75M over the 2010-2011 seasons. Even if he regresses back to the three WAR range, he would give $27M worth of production over that time period.

 

If you’re keeping score at home, that would mean Swisher offers the Yankees about $22.5M worth of surplus value from 2009-2011 (what his production is worth on the free agent market based on the $4.5M/WAR standard, minus his actual salary). And, he also has that reasonable option for the 2012 season.

 

During an off-season in which the Yankees spent more than the gross domestic product of Tonga (no, seriously), the club also added Swisher for a song. This is a great example of why it’s vital to not just take a cursory glance at a player’s numbers and come to a definite conclusion about his talents. Fantasy owners who did their homework picked up an offensive cog without coughing up a high draft pick. " More At the Link. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php...hers-resurgence

To put things in perspective while you are making arrangements for Nick Swisher's enshrinement into the HOF, he basically had the same offensive year as Jermaine Dye, except with a few more walks and a few more strikeouts, check the numbers, yet fangraphs has Swisher's production worth $16.5 million and Dye's worth -(yes that's negative) 600k. Could you say with a straight face their production is over $17 million worth of value apart?

 

498 AB 29 HR 82 RBI 97 BB 126 K .249 AVG .371 OBP .869 OPS

503 AB 27 HR 81 RBI 64 BB 108 K .250 AVG .340 OBP .826 OPS

 

I don't see $17 million in difference. Obviously, Swisher's is slightly better, but fangraphs obviously has a major flaw in how the value players. If Dye had 20 more walks their numbers would basically be identical.

Edited October 11, 2009 by Dick Allen

[sircaffey]

To put things in perspective while you are making arrangements for Nick Swisher's enshrinement into the HOF, he basically had the same offensive year as Jermaine Dye, except with a few more walks and a few more strikeouts, check the numbers, yet fangraphs has Swisher's production worth $16.5 million and Dye's worth -(yes that's negative) 600k. Could you say with a straight face their production is over $17 million worth of value apart?

 

498 AB 29 HR 82 RBI 97 BB 126 K .249 AVG .371 OBP .869 OPS

503 AB 27 HR 81 RBI 64 BB 108 K .250 AVG .340 OBP .826 OPS

 

I don't see $17 million in difference. Obviously, Swisher's is slightly better, but fangraphs obviously has a major flaw in how the value players. If Dye had 20 more walks their numbers would basically be identical.

 

$17 mil is definitely off, but Swisher did have about 20 more extra base hits in addition to 33 more walks. That's more than just slightly better, imo.

[WCSox]

I don't see $17 million in difference. Obviously, Swisher's is slightly better, but fangraphs obviously has a major flaw in how the value players. If Dye had 20 more walks their numbers would basically be identical.

 

Fangraphs also doesn't account for Swisher's douchebag attitude rubbing members of the Sox organization the wrong way. Most people who have bad relationships with their employers tend to not excel at their jobs. Not surprisingly, this is exactly what happened to Swish last year. I have a difficult time believing that he would've put up this year's NY numbers in Chicago.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

PLEASE

LET

THIS

f***ING

TOPIC

f***ING

DIE

ALREADY!!!!

 

THE

HORSE'S

EYES

ARE

ROTTED

OUT

AND

THE

MAGGOTS

HAVE

ALREADY

MADE

THEIR

TRAVEL

PLANS!!!

 

THERE

IS

NOTHING

LEFT

TO DISCUSS!!!!

[lostfan]

^^I was about to make a similar post but then I realized I've already done it.

[elrockinMT]

Admit it... The Yankees hornswoggled the Sox n the Swisher deal. It might be a different story if we had gotten some ral vlaue back, but we lost on it. Now maybe next year one of those guys all of sudden surfaces as a real gem then we will be saying how the Sox won on the deal. It's all a crap shoot. The thread wil die when you admit KW got fleeced

Edited October 11, 2009 by elrockinMT

[WCSox]

Admit it... The Yankees hornswoggled the Sox n the Swisher deal. It might be a different story if we had gotten some ral vlaue back, but we lost on it. Now maybe next year one of those guys all of sudden surfaces as a real gem then we will be saying how the Sox won on the deal. It's all a crap shoot. The thread wil die when you admit KW got fleeced

 

More like KW made a bad decision by trading for a guy who didn't fit into the clubhouse culture.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

^^I was about to make a similar post but then I realized I've already done it.

You can make another when this thread inevitably reaches 20 pages.

[Kalapse]

To put things in perspective while you are making arrangements for Nick Swisher's enshrinement into the HOF, he basically had the same offensive year as Jermaine Dye, except with a few more walks and a few more strikeouts, check the numbers, yet fangraphs has Swisher's production worth $16.5 million and Dye's worth -(yes that's negative) 600k. Could you say with a straight face their production is over $17 million worth of value apart?

 

498 AB 29 HR 82 RBI 97 BB 126 K .249 AVG .371 OBP .869 OPS

503 AB 27 HR 81 RBI 64 BB 108 K .250 AVG .340 OBP .826 OPS

 

I don't see $17 million in difference. Obviously, Swisher's is slightly better, but fangraphs obviously has a major flaw in how the value players. If Dye had 20 more walks their numbers would basically be identical.

Dye put up a .793 OPS this year, .826 is his career OPS. So there's a 76 point difference in OPS, that's f***ing huge. Just look at their OPS+'s, Swisher: 126 (well above average) and Dye: 102 (just about average). Jermaine put up a below average OPS for an AL right fielder (.793 compared to .803) and that's while playing half his games at the cell.

 

So Dye put up average to below average offensive production for his position and was the worst defensive outfielder in the AL according to UZR where as Swisher was a well above average hitter and an average defender, that's where your tremendous difference in value comes from. They actually take into account defense.

 

You also can not downplay the value of 33 extra walks over the course of a season, there's huge value in that. You're unintentionally highlighting the inherent flaw in using straight OPS to compare 2 players. OPS treats OBP and SLG as equals when they're anything but, OBP needs to be weighted more heavily.

[Dick Allen]

Dye put up a .793 OPS this year, .826 is his career OPS. So there's a 76 point difference in OPS, that's f***ing huge. Just look at their OPS+'s, Swisher: 126 (well above average) and Dye: 102 (just about average). Jermaine put up a below average OPS for an AL right fielder (.793 compared to .803) and that's while playing half his games at the cell.

 

So Dye put up average to below average offensive production for his position and was the worst defensive outfielder in the AL according to UZR where as Swisher was a well above average hitter and an average defender, that's where your tremendous difference in value comes from. They actually take into account defense.

 

You also can not downplay the value of 33 extra walks over the course of a season, there's huge value in that. You're unintentionally highlighting the inherent flaw in using straight OPS to compare 2 players. OPS treats OBP and SLG as equals when they're anything but, OBP needs to be weighted more heavily.

The difference is not $17 million worth of production. If it is, most players in the major leagues are vastly underpaid. Swisher made a few more plate appearances. I really doubt 33 walks, 5 walks a month is worth anywhere near $17 million.

Edited October 11, 2009 by Dick Allen

[Kalapse]

The difference is not $17 million worth of production. If it is, most players in the major leagues are vastly underpaid.

You can't just say that off the top of your head. Dye was the worst defender at his position and posted below average offensive production, there's no value in that. If you're going to be horrible at one facet of the game then you need to be above average at another, unfortunately Jermaine was not.